Nelly
LA Dodgers at St. Louis
Play: LA Dodgers
Nathan Eovaldi doesn't bring the name recognition that former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter brings but Eovaldi has pitched well in three starts filling in for the Dodgers. If you want to feel old, realize that Eovaldi was born in 1990, and is just 21, now with back-to-back quality starts after making his big league debut in early August. Eovaldi has walked nine batters but his ERA is just 2.12 and he pitched well at Arizona and at Milwaukee, two difficult pitching environments against playoff contending teams. The Dodgers have scored five or more runs in six of the last ten games despite dismal offensive numbers for the year and Los Angeles beat Carpenter earlier this season. Carpenter has worked his record back to 8-8 but it has been a tough season, as he has allowed three or more runs in half of his 26 starts. St. Louis is just 12-14 with their ace on the mound and opponents are hitting a solid .275 against Carpenter. St. Louis has lost its last two series and despite a Sunday night win the Cardinals have to feel the reality of the distance from Milwaukee in the NL Central race. The offense continues to post rather mediocre numbers and the Cardinals are only a few games above .500 at home. The Dodgers have been far from a great performer on the road but with steep underdog value, a promising prospect that will be unfamiliar to the St. Louis lineup may be worth a look against an overvalued veteran that continues to underachieve on a sinking team. Go with Los Angeles.
David Malinsky
Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Houston Astros
We will not see a worse $2 favorite all season that what the Rockies take to the field tonight. So with the Astros still playing hard every day, and Brett Myers pitching like a professional, we are in play.
The Rockies were 10 games under .500 until beating the Dodgers the last two days, but those games took a lot of favorable bounces to get home – when was the last time a Major League team won back-to-back games despite trailing by 10 hits? There is nothing imposing about the form of Jhoulys Chacin, who has labored to a 1-5/5.09 over his last 10 starts, and his 3.59 for the full season should come with an * attached – of the 125 pitchers that have worked at least 100 IP, his BABIP of .245 sits at #7. The Rockies as a team are at .296 in that category, so you can see how much good fortune he has had. Meanwhile with Huston Street and Matt Lindstrom on the DL the Colorado bullpen is extremely short-handed, especially with Rafael Betancourt and Matt Belisle off of back-to-back outings.
Meanwhile the Astros competed well in that 4-2 home-stand over the past week, with both of the losses point blank (one coming in extra innings), and Myers continues to fight through that dismal 3-12/4.72 that he has been saddled with. While Chacin’s numbers are better than they should be because of the BABIP bounces, Myers has gone up against a true grinder – of those 125 pitchers at 100 IP or more, his difficulty of batters faced is #2, with only David Price going up against a tougher slate. Yet since the All Star break he sports a ratio of 39 K’s vs. only 11 W’s, sowing excellent command and focus, and a guy looking to find a good contract with a contender next season still has plenty to aim at down the stretch.
John Ryan
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on the Phillies using the Run Line and a 5* amount using the money line. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game by two or more runs. This combination bet totaling 10* amount serves to maximize the risk/reward profile a prohibitive favorite. Philadelphia has been experimenting with the closer roles and setup positions over the the past week and has contributed to unthinkable ninth inning collapses over the weekend. All teams go through this period and it is nothing to worry about from a winning standpoint going forward. The bullpen may not even be needed tonight as Cliff Lee will toe the rubber for the Phillies. he has posted a 0.75 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP spanning his last three starts. He has won his last four starts. Moreover, he is 9-2 with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.013 WHIP in 14 home starts. The Mets will send Dillon Gee to the hill and he has posted a 5.40 ERA and a 1.440 WHIP and allowed four home runs in this last three starts spanning just 16 2/3 innings of work. Supporting the Run Line play is a system that has gone 48-19 for 72% winners making 28 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play against NL road with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season and who gave up one or less earned runs last outing. Take Philadelphia as prescribed above.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Houston Astros +1.5 -105
The Astros are showing value catching 1.5 runs at this price when you consider they have won 9 of the last 12 in the series and 5 of the last 6 at Colorado. Plus, Houston's Brett Myers is 6-0 (7-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.61 in 7 career starts against the Rockies. Take the Astros on the run line.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Phillies -1.5 -102
Philly is an impressive 20-5 vs. NL starting pitchers with an ERA between 3.50 to 4.20 this season. It is beating these pitchers by an average score of 5.6 to 3.2. Lee is 13-2 on the money line the last 3 seasons vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game. His clubs are winning these starts by an average score of 6.1 to 2.3. The Phils have won each of Lee's last 4 starts and 12 of his last 16. 11 of these 12 wins have come by at least 2 runs. Take Philly on the run line.
Bob Wingerter
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers are up 4.5 games on the Indians in the AL West race as they defeated Cleveland on Sunday afternoon 8-7. The Tigers had a huge 7-0 lead in this one as the Detroit bats came alive early scoring seven runs in the first three innings with two homeruns. Cleveland struck back in the fourth inning however with five runs bringing the total to 5-7 and creating a whole new ballgame. Detroit answered Cleveland's flurry with one run in the bottom half of the fourth making the score 5-8 after four. Cleveland scored once in the fifth, and once again in the sixth on Sunday, but the Tigers held on to the lead and got the win against their division rival. On the mound Monday for the Tigers is pitcher Justin Verlander. Verlander has pitched well against the Rays in his career with an impressive 5-1 record and a solid ERA of 3.88. Jeff Niemann has pitched very well lately for the Rays, as the Tampa starter is 3-0 in his last three starts with an ERA of 3.43 and averaging 7.9 innings per start in his last three outings. Verlander has been equally impressive for the Tigers with a record of 3-0 and an ERA of 2.32 in his last three starts.
Info Plays
3* Washington Nationals
--SYSTEMS IN PLAY--
*Washington is 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
*Washington is 15-5 in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
*Washington is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
*Arizona is 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
John Ryan
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
5* graded play on the Boston Red Sox as they take on the Texas Rangers set to start at 8:10 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Boston will win this game. This is a possible preview of the American League Championship Series with two of the best offenses in the majors going head-to-head in this four game series. Boston trails the Yankees by 1/2 game in the American League East and Texas has a somewhat comfortable lead in the American League West with a four game lead over Anaheim. Both teams rank very high in all the major offensive categories, but it is the Boston pitching staff, especially the bullpen that is significantly better than Texas and the dominant reason they will win this game. Texas ranks third with 651 runs scored, second with a .277 team batting average, sixth with a .334 on-base-percentage, and third with a .446 slugging-percentage. By comparison Boston ranks second with 670 runs scored, best with a .278 team batting average, best with .349 on-base-percentage, and best with a .453 slugging-percentage. Looking at the teams bullpens Boston ranks ninth with a 3.46 while Texas ranks a distant 25th with a 4.05 ERA. The Boston pen ranks fifth allowing a .229 opponent batting average and Texas ranks 22nd allowing a .247 opponent batting average. Texas ranks 10th worst with 18 blown saves and Boston ranks 26th with just 10 blown saves. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 212-149 for just 59% winners, but has made a whopping 78.6 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play against any team with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start and after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more earned runs. Always know that in the money line sports of MLB and NHL units won is far more important than win percentage. So, this is a valuable system that I encourage you to track for qualifying plays. Boston proven again that they are a resourceful and very resilient team in taking three of four games from Kansas City. They won these games without Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz, and Kevin Youkillis and goes a long way to show how deep the Red Sox offense has become during the second half of this season. Ellsbury is likely to play tonight, but Ortiz and Youkillis will miss this series. With Erik Bedard pitching the Red Sox may not need a bunch of runs to win this game. Bedard has pitched well in eight road starts posting a 2.31 ERA and a 1.093 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has posted a 3.37 ERA and a 1.312 WHIP allowing one walk, one home run and striking out 17 batters. Wilson has pitched very well this season, but Boston has posted a 29-14 record when facing left-handed starters this season. Over his last three starts he has posted a 1.83 ERA with a 1.017 WHIP, but these were against Anaheim, Oakland, and Cleveland. Oakland ranks 23rd with 491 runs scored, LA angels rank 20th with 502 runs scored, and Cleveland ranks 16th with 524 runs scored. Boston obviously will give him a much more difficult test tonight and I strongly believe Boston will get to him early in this game. Texas is a weak 3-10 losing 11.7 units per one unit wagered against the money line after a game where the bullpen was rocked for five or more runs over the last two seasons. Take the Boston Red Sox.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
CLEVELAND -159 over Seattle: Just when the Tribe thought they were getting healthier, bamm they lose Travis Hafner. Not sure his loss will be felt much tonight though as they take on the lowly Mariners. Seattle is 6-21 in their last 27 road games, while the Tribe is 399-14 in their last 53 games as a favorite. Fausto Carmona gets the ball for Cleveland tonight and he has been pitching well of late with a 2-2 mark and a 2.51 ERA in his last 7 starts. Hee is just 2-6 at home on the year and 0-2 in his last 3 home starts, but with a 3.09 ERA in those last 3 at home. He also may be just 1-2 in his last 5 starts vs the Mariners, but with a solid 2.29 ERA. His counterpart today is Jason Vargas and he has really been struggling of late with a 1-5 mark and a 7.39 ERA in his last 5 starts. on the road this year he is 2-4 with a 4.06 ERA, while in his 3 career starts vs Cleveland he is 1-2 with a 10.05 ERA. Seattle comes in scoirng 4.1 rpg in their last 10, but their team ERA is 5.93 over that span. Cleveland has averaged 4.30 rpg in their last 10, but their team ERA is just 3.55 over that span. Big advantage to Cleveland there. Cleveland also have the home edge and the motivational edge as they need to keep pace with the tigers if they harbor any thought of an AL Central crown. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Mariners are 0-19 since 2009 as a road dog of 110 or more if they are facing an opponent off 2 straight losses.
MINNESOTA -135 over Baltimore: Neither of these teams will be making the playoffs this year, but that's not a reason to not try and make money off them. The Orioles are just 13-38 in their last 51 games overall and 5-21 in their last 26 games as a dog of +110 to +150. The Twins come in44-19 in their last 63 home games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 7-3 in their last 10 meetings with the O's. Carl Pavano comes in pitching really well with a 2.01 ERA in his last 3 starts, despite an 0-1 record. He has also pitched well at home with a 3-3 record and a 3.08 ERA. Carl also has a 3-2 record with a 3.98 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the O's. On the Other side Zach Britton has been awfull of late with an 0-5 mark and a 9.00 ERA in his last 7 starts. The Orioles do have the offensive edge, but on this night the Twins get a BIG pitching edge and will extend the Orioles losing streak to 6 games.
2 UNIT PLAY
Milwaukee/ Pittsburgh Over 8 (Game 1): Jeff Karstens has had a good year for the Pirates, but he may be wearing down a bit as he comes in with an 8.59 ERA in his last 3 starts. He does have a nice 3.21 ERA at home this year, but in his last 2 at home that ERA swells to 12.45. It may not get much better today vs a Brewers team that has scored 5.4 rpg in their last 5 games. The Pirate offense has been ok of late, putting up 4.8 rpg in their last 5 games and should have some success vs Chris Naverson, who comes in with a 4.76 in his last 3 overall and a 5.11 ERA on the road. We also note that the Over is 13-3 in the Brewers last 16 road games vs a losing team and 9-1-2 in Naverson's last 12 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5, while the Over is 8-2 in the Pirates last 10 home overall and 21-8 in their last 29 home games with the total set at 7 to 8.5. I see 10+ runs in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (-110) over NY Mets: The Phils bullpen is a mess right now, ,so I look for them to try and put it out of reach early. Cliff lee is awesome at home and Dillon Gee comes in strugglng. Philly lost 2 of three to the Nats over the weekend, but they will get back to winning in a big way here.
O.C. Dooley
Rays +115
The price tag for this early evening contest is relatively low considering that 18-game winner and major league strikeout king Justin Verlander is on the mound. It is interesting to note that in the 26 starts that Verlander has made for Detroit this season, 19 of them have come after a Tigers loss. That means Verlander is in a rather unusual spot tonight as the Tigers are coming off an emotional 3-game sweep of divisional rival Cleveland. One of the reasons why tonight’s money-line has been kept in check has to do with the fact that streaking Tampa has WON 10 times in the past dozen outings and are now a season-high 13 games above the .500 mark. In addition tonight’s starter Jeff Niemann is unscathed in the past seven starts (6-0 record) and in the past ten mound assignments his ERA for the Rays (2.15) has been spectacular. Yesterday the Rays completed a weekend series sweep on a “walk off” homer by former Tigers outfielder Johnny Damon who also nearly hit a grand-slam. Damon and the Tampa offense actually had a huge performance against Justin Verlander earlier this season in Motown scoring 6 times while pounding out 9 hits. Turning to the database here is a 64-PERCENT SYSTEM (91-51 since 1997 with a money line between +125/-125) which plays AGAINST hot hitting teams like Detroit with a batting average of better than .314 in a ten-game span, with a hot bullpen that in a five-game stretch has a TWO ERA or better. That system actually favors Tampa who last July SWEPT Detroit in a 4-game home set limiting the Tigers to a grand total of just 8 runs in those four contests