Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August 29,2011

Frank Jordan

Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels lost a heartbreaker last night as they had Weaver on the mound with a lead late and he and the pen blew it as they lost 9-5. They now head up to Seattle and will look to get fat on the Mariners. The Angels have Joel Pineiro on the hill who is coming off a decent outing last time where he did give up four runs, but went six innings and the Angels won. Look for Pineiro to build off that and get a win this time out as the Angel bats come alive. Play LA Angels

Rob Vinciletti

Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs

Arizona qualifies in a solid system that has cashed 11 of the last 12 times. What we want to do is play on home favorites off a hoe favored win, vs an opponent off a road dog win and scored 5 or more runs with 4 or less men left on base. Arizona has D. Hudson on the mound and he has a 3.35 era here and Arizona has won 9 of his 13 starts here. They are also 11-3 as a home favorite in this range. They are as streaky as they come. They have won 6 straight after losing 6 straight. Tonight they face A. White who is making just his 2nd start of the season and may not last long here. Look for Arizona to continue their nice run.

Dennis Macklin

Marlins vs. Mets G2
Play: Over 8

You probably want to check the piching matchups in this double-header to make sure that Game II features Nolasco and Dillon Gee. Playing the Over here as Nolasco has an ERA of 7.04 in his L7 starts, 8.15 in his L3, and 5.58 in 18 LT starts vs the Mets. Gee's ERA is 7.63 in his L3 and he's allowed 13 earned on 17 hits and a whopping 11 walks in 15 1/3 innings of work. Looks like classic chuck and duck to me.

Jim Feist

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays

Don't tell the Tampa Bay Rays that they are out of the both the AL East division race and the Wild Card. The Rays trail the Red Sox for the division lead by 8 1/2 games. They also trail the Yankees for the Wild Card by 6 1/2 games. But their recent play shows they haven't given up. Since July 28 the Rays have gone 20-9 and try for the four-game sweep here on Monday against the Blue Jays. The nice run has been because of the Rays starting rotation, which has posted a 2.90 ERA over those 29 games. Moreover, they are 1.94 in their last six games. Wade Davis will try to keep the nice string of starts going for the Rays. Davis is 8-7 with a 4.28 ERA and is coming off a nice nine inning, two earned run performance against the Tigers. Ricky Romero will start for Toronto. Romero has had a fine season, going 12-9 with a 2.78 ERA. But I just can't pass up taking the Rays as nice dog here on Monday considering how great their staff has pitched and how well they are playing. This is a high valued dog on Monday.

EZWINNERS

Los Angeles Dodgers -165

The Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball with a 16-5 record and an ERA of just 2.51. Kershaw has a very good chance of being a twenty game winner this season and he has had pretty good success against the Padres in the past as he has a career record of 5-3 with an ERA of just 2.48. San Diego's starting pitcher Mat Latos has been pitching pretty well, but suffers from a lack of run support. That has also been the story for Latos in his career starts against the Dodgers. In 40 1/3 innings of work against the Dodgers, Latos has a very good ERA of just 2.45 but a record of just 1-5. I think Latos will be handed the same fate in this game with as I expect runs to be at a premium for the Padres with Kershaw on the mound for the Dodgers. The Padres are just 5-11 in Lato's last sixteen starts and the Dodgers are 13-3 in Kershaw's last sixteen starts are a favorite between -$200 and -$150. Play on Los Angeles.

Tom Freese

Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros

his looks like a good spot for the Astros to pick up a rare win. Yesterday was just their second win in eight games and today they should make it an even rarer back to back wins. That's because Wandy Rodriguez gets the baseball and he's been the club's only reliable arm this season. He has a 3.41 ERA in 24 starts w/ a 127-53 KW ratio. Pittsburgh's Ross Ohlendorf has a 1-7 TSR with a 6.25 ERA all-time vs. the Astros and has a 7.24 ERA in 3 starts.

Vegas Experts

San Diego Padres at LA Dodgers
Play: LA Dodgers

The Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw against the Padres lineup. Which way do you think we're going? Kershaw has thrown 14 straight scoreless innnings and has a 3-0 TSR w/ a 0.41 ERA L3 starts, allowing just one run. He has dominated at home, going 8-0 last 10 starts here, including five straight wins, with a 1.43 ERA. San Diego has scored one run or less in 39 games this season and is 2-14 this year when they've done it in back to back games.

Doug Upstone

L.A. Dodgers

After having some success offensively, San Diego hitters were like a drips of water in the Arizona desert sun, they just dried up and were swept by the D-Backs. On Monday, Play Against road teams averaging 0.9 or less home runs a game on the season, after scoring two runs or less in four straight contests.(78-27 L14Y)

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGLE PLAY

LA DODGERS -157 over San Diego: Last night the dodgers lost a tough one to the Rockies, but this is still a team that is playing well as they come in winners of 8 of their last 11 games and they have won 17 of their last 22 games in the role of a favorite. LA is also 12-1 in Clayton Kershaw's last 13 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Speaking of Clayton, This guy has been dominant as he comes in with an 0.41 Era in his last 3 starts and he is 9-1 with a solid 1.88 ERA at home on the year. His WHIP numbers have been impressive this year as well, as he has a 1.02 WHIP overall and an 0.92 WHIP at home. The Padre offense had been playing well, but they come in struggling, hitting just .202 (.147 vs lefties) and scoring just 2 rpg in their last 5 games. The dodger offense has not had many problems of late as they have averaged 6.5 rpg and have hit .279 in their last 10 games, including hitting .300 and scoring 8.2 rpg in their last 5 games. Pretty amazing numbers for a team that scores just 3.85 rpg on the year. Mat Latos hasn't pitched all that bad this year, but he is still 6-12 overall and 3-5 on the road, plus the Padres are 1-8 in his last 9 road starts vs a team with a losing record. Both starers have fared well vs tonight's opposition, but LA is playing much better than the Padres right now, and Clayton will not let them lose at home tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against road dogs with a ML of +125 to +175 that hits .255 or worse and has a bullpen of 3.33 or better and they are facing a team with a starter whose ERA is 2.70 or better. This Power Angle is 57-16 since 1997

3 UNIT PLAYS

Florida/ MY Mets Over 8 (Game 1): Well this has been a high scoring series as the Over is 23-9-1 in their last 33 meetings. This year the over is 7-3 with an average of 8.9 rpg being scored. Annibel Sanchez has been struggling as he comes in with a 5.82 ERA in his last 6 starts, while in his last 5 starts on the road he has an ERA of 6.10. In his lasy 6 starts vs the Mets he has an ERA of 5.76, with an average of 10.2 rpg being scored. R.A. Dickey actually has been pitching well pof late (3.46 ERA in last 6 starts) but he does have a 4.01 ERA at home and a 5.78 ERA in his 5 career starts vs the Fish. R.A.'s last 3 starts overall have averaged 10.33 rpg, while his 5 starts vs the Marlins have averaged 10.6 rpg. Those are individual pitching numbers, but these 2 staffs overall have been hit hard of late, as the Mets come in with a 5..52 ERA oin their last 10 games, while Florida has a 6.67 ERA in their last 10. Neither offense is killing the ball right now, but vs today's pitching I look for both teams to break out the big sticks. No reason why this game doesn't reach 9 runs.

LA Angels -122 over SEATTLE: The Angels are 33-17 in their last 50 meetings with the Mariners and 8-4 vs them this year. This is an important series for the Halos as they look to stay within striking distance of the Rangers. It won't be that easy as Joel Pineiro comes in struggling with a 10.54 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 5.19 ERA on the road this year, but he has gone 3-0 with a 4.50 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Mariners. Blake Beavan also comes in struggling as he is 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA in his last 3 starts, while at home he is 2-3 with a 5.12 ERA. No real pitching advantage here so we'll look at the hitting. The Mariners really struggle to score at home where they have averaged just 3.2 rpg and have hit just .225, while the Angels have averaged 4.3 rpg and have hit .257 on the road this year. The Mariners have also scored just 2.7 rpg vs the west, while the Angels have put up 3.7 rpg vs the division. The pitching is even here, but the Angles have the hitting and motivational edges and should walk a way with a solid win here.

NY Yanks -1.5 (-115) over BALTIMORE: The Yanks are 43-13 in their last 56 meetings with the O's and 21-8 in their last 29 games played here. The yanks have 10 wins vs the O's this year and they are 9-1 vs the RL in those wins, outscoring the O's by 5.9 rpg in the process. The Yanks are also an amazing 34-4 vs the RL in their 38 road wins this year, including a perfect 5-0 vs the RL in their 5 road wins vs the O's this year. In Garcia's 11 team wins on the year the Yanks have gone a perfect 11-0 vs the RL, while the o's are 1-5 vs the RL in Simon's 6 team losses on the year, while in their 36 home losses overall this year they are just 6-30 vs the RL. Garcia comes in with a 3-0 mark and a 2.13 ERA in his last 4 starts, while in his last 5 starts vs the O's he is 2-1 with a 3.48 Era. Alfredo Simon is just 1-2 with a 5.23 ERA in his last 4 starts, while in 1 career start vs the Yanks he is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA. The Yanks really need to keep winning if they hope to catch the Sox and I expect them to be fully focused tonight.

2 UNIT PLAYS

LA Dodgers/ San Diego Over 5.5: The Padres offense had been stellar for much of the 2nd half, but they have taken a step back of late. Still this is a team that scores 4.3 rpg on the road, compared to 3 rpg at home, plus they have still put up 4 rpg in their last 7 games. The dodgers have not been know for scoring at home (3.4 rpg this year), but on this current home stand the have put up 6, 7 & 6 runs, while in their last 5 overall they have averaged 8.2 rpg. The Padres allow 4 rpg on the road, while the Dodgers allow 3.9 rpg at home. Despite the pitching on the mound I still see this game hitting at least 7 runs.

ARIZONA -153 over Colorado: The D-Backs are 19-3 since September of 2008 as a 140+ home favorite in the first game of a home series and they are 10-1 in their last 11 home games, plus 12-3 in Hudson's last 15 starts as a favorite. The Rockies come in just 2-7 in their last 9 meetings with the D-Backs and 1-7 in their last 8 games vs a team with a winning record. The D-Backs are starting to stretch out their lead in the West and they will continue to win with a solid win over the Rockies tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +140 over TORONTO

We hate to kick a team when they’re down as much as the next guy but the Jays are a real mess these days and the end is nowhere in sight. Yesterday, Toronto had three hits and struck out 14 times. The Jays have lost four straight and seven of its past nine games. During that stretch, Toronto has hit a combined .178 while scoring 22 lousy runs and practically every run they scored has come via the long ball. This is a team that is not to be feared right now with a cast of rookies, fill-ins and scrap-yard pick-ups. Yeah, they have their ace going but so what. Ricky Romero cannot add runs offensively. He may be able to hold the Rays to three runs or less and that’s if everything goes well. If it doesn’t than the Jays virtually have no shot with an offense that is seeing BB’s from top to bottom. Wade Davis has really picked it up over the past month. In his last four starts, Davis is 3-0 with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.03. The Rays have won his last five starts and one of those was against Toronto at the beginning of August in which Davis went 7.2 frames and allowed just five hits and three runs. That’s when the Jays had a full and healthy team. In his last start, Davis pitched a complete game, four-hitter against the Tigers. The kid is confident, the Rays have now won 14 of 18 and all the value is on the visitor again. Play: Tampa Bay +140 (Risking 2 units).

Oakland +113 over CLEVELAND

After a DH Saturday, the A’s were rained out yesterday so they should be ready to go today. These teams that are out of it that are playing a team that’s “in it” get a little extra juiced up to play some meaningful games and make life miserable for the opposition. The Indians are now hanging by a thread and sit 6½ games out after losing seven of its last 10 games. The White Sox leapfrogged over them yesterday so now the Indians are looking up at two teams instead of one. David Huff offers up nothing as the chalk. He’s made just four starts this year after spending most of the year in the minors. Huff went 2-11 with a 6.21 ERA in 80 IP for the Tribe last year. With a dreadful groundball/flyball split of 28%/56%, Huff is a home-run waiting to happen and the A’s have the power to go yard. The absence of an advantage over lefties doesn't help. Huff is on the roster only because Carlos Carrasco is on the DL and everything about this guy says he’s not a skill set worth chasing. Brandon McCarthy is a quality lefty. He has elite control with just 21 walks in 126 IP. His xERA of 3.60 is lower than his actual ERA of 3.72 and he’ll face an Indians team that is below .500 against southpaws. The A’s are coming off back-to-back series against the Yanks and Red Sox in which they went 3-3. They’re playing good ball and they’re a much better play taking back a tag with McCarthy than the Indians are laying one with that stiff, David Huff. Play: Oakland +113 (Risking 2 units).

Larry Ness

Toronto Blue Jays -148

The Rays are 20-9 since July 28 but in a division which also includes the Red Sox (82-51) and Yankees (79-52), Tampa Bay remains 8 1/2 games out of first-place and 6 1/2 games behind in the wild card race. The Rays have taken the first three games of their series with the Jays in Toronto this weekend and now attempt to complete a four-game sweep tonight, something they've never done in Toronto (not surprisingly). Wade Davis gets the nod and he's 8-7 this season (4.28) with the Rays winning 14 of his 23 starts. He's had four consecutive no-decisions but all have been Tampa Bay wins. That being said, he faces a tough mound opponent in Toronto lefty Ricky Romero. Romero owns a splendid 2.78 ERA on the season (26 starts), allowing only 139 hits in 181 innings. Romero is 5-0 over his last seven starts (team is 7-0) while posting an impressive 1.84 ERA. Look for Toronto to avoid the dreaded four-game home sweep.

Steve Janus

Angels/Mariners UNDER 8

The Angeles are coming into this game off a disappointing 3-game series against the Texas Rangers, which ended in a heartbreaking loss last night. I look for the Angeles entire team to come out a little sluggish to start Monday's game, which should lead to a close lose low scoring affair.

The Angeles will start Joel Pineiro, who will be pitching on eight days rest. That extra time should give him a live arm against a Seattle offense that is averaging just 3.2 runs a game at home. In Pineiro's last two starts against the Mariners, he has pitched 7 innings and allowed just 3 ER in each game.

The Mariners will counter with Blake Beavan, who has hit a bit of a rough patch after starting 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA in his first six major league starts. Two of those starts came against the Angels, where he allowed just 3 ER over 14.3 innings of work.

The UNDER is 15-6-5 in Mariners last 26 vs. American League West, 33-16-2 in Mariners last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. and 10-3 in Angels last 13 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. BET THE UNDER!

Jack Jones

Los Angeles Angels -124

I'll side with the Los Angeles Angels Monday as they have a lot to play for against the Seattle Mariners. Coming off a tough loss to the Rangers last night, I fully expect L.A. to bounce back in a big way here. The Angels sit just three games behind Texas in the AL West division.

Seattle has been struggling, losers of three straight and nine of their last 12 to drop to 56-76 on the season. This is the worst hitting team in the American League, and they've been especially bad at the plate in Seattle. The Mariners are batting .225 and scoring 3.2 RPG at home in 2011.

Blake Beavan has been rocked of late, going 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.673 WHIP in his last three starts for the Mariners. Joel Pineiro has never lost to Seattle, going 3-0 with a 4.50 ERA in three career starts against them, all of which have been since 2010.

The Mariners are a woeful 2-22 after allowing 9 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 10-1 in Pineiro's last 11 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Mariners are 15-40 in their last 55 games as an underdog, and 9-28 in their last 37 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Angels Monday.

Ben Burns

Colorado Rockies @ Diamondbacks
PICK: Diamondbacks

While the Diamondbacks are still medium-sized favorites, the price has fallen from its opening number. Given the pitching matchup and venue, the current line seems more than fair.

Hudson is off a solid outing last time out. He allowed two runs through 8 2/3 innings, en route to a 4-2 victory. That brings him to 13-9 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.256 WHIP on the season. In 13 home starts, he's gone 7-4 with a stellar 3.35 ERA and 1.204 WHIP. He's averaged seven full innings in those starts and has an impressive 69 K's vs. only 14 walks. Arizona was a profitable 9-4 (+3.3) in those games.

On the other hand, White has a 4.71 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in his four starts, including a 5.40 ERA from his last three. Last week, making his first start since May, he allowed five runs in six innings.

As far as the price goes, note that the Dbax are a profitable 26-9 (+11.1) the last 35 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. During the same stretch, the Rockies were a money-burning 18-38 (-13.8) when listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. Consider "laying the wood."