Sean Murphy
Cubs @ Giants
PICK: Over 6.5
Both of these teams have struggled at the plate lately, but that only serves to provide us with additional value with the 'over' when they hook up on Monday night.
The Cubs saw two of three games play 'under' the total in Milwaukee over the weekend. Still, they've posted a 37-27-1 o/u mark on the road this season. Chicago has fared well offensively against the Giants this season, plating 28 runs in six meetings.
The Giants have seemingly been feeling the pressure of the N.L. West race, as they've done little to nothing at the dish lately. However, now that they've fallen four games back of the division-leading D'Backs, I suspect we'll see them loosen up a little (I know that seems like reverse thinking, but the tighter the gap, the tighter teams tend to play).
Like the Cubs, the Giants have also enjoyed some offensive success in this series this season, scoring 29 runs in six previous matchups.
Randy Wells gets the call for the Cubs on Monday. He's pitched reasonably well over his last three starts, but it's worth noting that two of those came at home, where he's been a much better pitcher this season. On the road, Wells has posted a 6.43 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. His last two road outings have totaled 17 and 12 runs.
Wells has been rocked in two previous starts here in San Francisco, giving up 18 hits and 11 earned runs in just 10 1/3 innings of work.
Tim Lincecum will counter for the Giants. He's been simply lights out lately, posting a 0.82 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his last three outings. It's been another terrific campaign for the diminutive right-hander, yet here at home, only seven of his 13 starts have played 'under' the total.
It's not as if the Cubs have been stymied by Lincecum every time they've faced him. Just last August they plated six runs on eight hits, and chased him after four innings in an 8-6 victory.
The 'over' is 11-5 in the Cubs last 16 games where the total has been set at 6.5 runs or lower. We've also seen the 'over' cash in four of Tim Lincecum's last five starts when listed as a favorite north of -200.
MLB Predictions
Rays / Blue Jays Under 8.5
The Blue Jays are happy to send their ace Ricky Romero to the mound today, as they try and avoid a four game sweep to one of their AL East rivals. Romero is 12-9 on the season with a 2.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a low .213 opponents batting average. Ricky has been exceptional as of late, and hasn’t lost a start since mid July. His last outing was his 20th quality start of the season, although he got the no decision giving up 3 earned runs on 6 innings of work. The Rays will counter Wade Davis, who has been pitching well as of late. On the season Davis is 8-7 with a 4.28 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and .270 opponents batting average. Davis worked 9 innings against the Tigers in his last outing, giving up just 2 earned runs, but received a no decision in a game that went into extra innings. Over his last 10 starts Davis has allowed just 2.7 earned runs against per start. Romero and Davis faced each other back on May 19th in Toronto, with the result being a 3-2 Blue Jays victory. The UNDER is 3-0 in Romero’s three starts vs the Rays this season, while the UNDER is 2-0 in Davis’ two starts against Toronto this season. Note that the UNDER is 9-3-1 in the Rays last 13 overall, 7-3 in their last 10 during game 4 of a series, and 6-1 in their last 7 vs a left-handed starter. The UNDER is 10-2 in Davis’ last 12 starts with 4 days of rest, and 7-2 in his last 9 starts vs AL East opponents. Take note that the UNDER is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 during game 4 of a series, and 5-1-1 in their last 7 games vs a right handed starter. The UNDER is also 9-4-2 in Romero’s last 15 starts overall, and 5-1-1 in his last 7 starts vs AL East opponents. Neither team has had much success against these two pitchers, with Rays hitters batting .212 against Romero and Jays hitters batting a collective .235 against Davis. The Blue Jays have struggled with their bats during this recent 4 game losing skid, and I expect Romero to keep the Rays hitters in check. Value here is on the UNDER with the total set at 8.5. Take the UNDER with confidence as we snap out of this mini losing streak tonight.
David Banks
Phillies / Reds Over
A rematch of last season’s NLDS between the Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds will be showcased live on ESPN Monday night when the pair of NL rivals collides in Game 1; first pitch from the GAB is scheduled for 7:10 ET.
The NL East leading Phils have taken their foot off the gas a bit managing just a 5-5 mark their L/10 games heading into tonight’s series opener. Both of their games against the Florida Marlins were postponed over the weekend due to Hurricane Irene with a make-up dates yet to be decided. Manager Charlie Manuel’s squads’ mediocre play of late has seen his squad fall to #3 on the money list with an overall return of $1616; $663 of that profit for MLB bettors this season has come when on the road where they sport a 37-24 record.
Now a whopping 13-games off the pace in the NL Central, the Reds have been relegated to the spoiler role as they also have a double digit deficit to make up in the NL Wild Card race. Manager Dusty Baker’s squad has dramatically underachieved this season with the main culprit being the team’s woeful pitching staff which ranks 21st overall with a 4.09 team ERA. It can however score with the best of them, as they’ve averaged 4.71 runs per game (#4) and have launched 149 HRs (#7) going into Sunday’s finale with the Nats. Overall, the Redlegs have cost their wagering supporters $921 on the year.
Philly dominated this series a year ago winning five of the seven overall meetings before sweeping Cincy in the NLDS, and they’ve taken three of the teams four overall meetings in 2011; the ‘over’ cashed in each contest. This will be Cole Hamels’ first start since being placed on the DL in the middle of August. The Phillies have won 16 of his 25 starts to date and are 8-3 his L/11 starts away from CBP. They’ve also toppled each of the L/5 NL Central opponents faced. The Reds have won two of Homer Bailey’s L/3 starts and he’s 5-2 with a 4.66 ERA in his seven GAB outings on the year. Cincy’s come out on top five of the L/6 times it battled a lefty.
John Ryan
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
5* graded play on Seattle as they take on the Anaheim Angels set to start at 10:10 PM ET. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game. Anaheim is coming off a loss with their ace Weaver pitching last night and lost two of three games to the AL West division leading Rangers. The Angels trail the Rangers by three games. Although they need to continue winning and extending their recent 7-3 winning streak they will be flat for this game tonight. Losing two-of three to the rangers and then having to travel late exacerbates fatigue at this time of the season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced an 88-32 record for 73.3% winners and has made 49.2 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play against any team that is a struggling AL offensive team scoring <=4.2 runs per game and facing a good starting pitcher sporting an ERA<=4.20 and after allowing nine runs or more. Further supporting this graded play are game situations noting that the Angels are just 11-21 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in road games facing an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. I strongly believe that Seattle will have great success against their former starter Pineiro tonight. Take Seattle.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Arizona Diamondbacks -146
The D-backs have won 6 in a row in dominant fashion with all 6 wins coming by at least 2 runs. They have also had a lot of success against Colorado lately, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings overall and 7 of the last 9 at home. It's also worth noting that the Rockies are 2-6 in their last 8 road games and 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Diamondbacks are 10-1 in their last 11 home games. In addition, Arizona has the edge on the mound with Hudson. The Diamondbacks are 16-7 in his last 23 starts, 9-2 in his last 11 home starts and 12-3 in his last 15 starts as a favorite. We'll take the Snakes.
Freddy Wills
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
You might be surprised we are on the Astros today or that we are even playing a low "who cares" type game like the Pirates vs. the Astros in late August, but there is still money to be made even in these type of games. 1st of all Wandy Rodriguez has been solid at home and vs. the Pirates over his career 7-3 in his last 10 starts vs. them including a 1.86 ERA in his last 4 home starts vs. PIT with 29 innings pitched and a great 39:7 K:BB ratio. Pirates Ohlendorf making just his 4th start of the year so far he has a 2.12 WHIP and a 9:7 K:BB ratio. In 8 career starts vs. the Astros he's 1-7 with a 6.25 ERA. Though many of the hitters he struggled against are no longer here we still think the Astros is a solid play as they have gone 65-28 in their last 93 home games vs. the Pirates.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on LA Dodgers -1.5 +146
The Dodgers are showing value on the run line tonight with ace Clayton Kershaw stepping to the mound. The Dodgers have won each of his last 3, 8 of his last 9 and 10 of his last 12 starts. He has given up 2 earned runs or less in 10 of his last 12 starts and has given up no earned runs in half of these starts. The Dodgers have won each of his last 3 starts by a minimum of 4 runs. We'll take LA on the run line.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Houston Astros -125
Pittsburgh's Ross Ohlendorf has had no success against Houston, going 0-6 (1-7 on the money line) with a 6.25 ERA in 8 career starts. The Pirates are 0-4 in his 4 lifetime starts at Houston. The Astros, meanwhile, are 6-1 in Wandy Rodriguez's 7 career home starts vs. the Pirates. We'll take Houston the on the money line.
Info Plays
3* MLB Free Pick: Los Angeles Angels -121
The Angels will be extremely focused after losing a tough game at Texas last night, as they don't want to fall any farther behind in the AL West. Los Angeles is 19-7 in their last 26 games following a loss, 20-8 in their last 28 during game 1 of a series, and 14-3 in Pineiro's last 17 starts as a favorite.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
NY Jets -3 over NY Giants: Ok here is a trend for ya. The Jets are 11-1 ATS in, the preseason, vs an opponent off a DD SU win. The Jet offense has done well in the preseason so far as they have averaged 21.5 ppg and 344 ypg. They have thrown for 216 ypg so far and will be taking on a Giant defense that has been shredded in NFLX so far as they have allowed 286 ypg and they are also dealing with some big injuries in their secondary. I look for Burress to really have a good showing vs his old mates tonight. The Giant Running game has been solid so far as they have averaged 146 ypg, but will be taking on a tough Jet defense that has allowed just 46 ypg rushing in the 2 games thus far. I don't expect that giant running game to get going tonight and that will mean that Manning an Co. will be forced to throw vs one of the best secondaries in the league. Not gonna happen. Reading some press stuff form Ryan, I feel that he wants this game more than Coughlin and he will get it with a solid showing on both sides of the ball vs an injury riddled Giants squad.
Rocketman
Oakland @ Cleveland
Play: Oakland +115
Brandon McCarthy is 7-6 with a 3.80 ERA overall this year. McCarthy is 5-1 with a 3.55 ERA overall vs Cleveland since 1997. Athletics are 7-1 in McCarthys last 8 starts. David Huff is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA his last 3 starts. Indians are 3-7 in their last 10 overall. Indians are 5-16 in Huffs last 21 starts. Indians are 1-10 in Huffs last 11 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Athletics are 12-5 in the last 17 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Oakland tonight!
Hollywood Sports
Phillies at Reds
Play: Over
Cole Hamels makes his first start since being placed on the disabled list on August 13th -- and the Over is 4-1-1 in the Phillies' last 6 games in which Hamels was pitching with at least sixteen days in-between starts. This team trend is consistent with the notion that starting pitchers tend to need at least one start to get back into the groove after being on the DL. In early June, Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN's Fantasy Baseball department looked at the top 58 starting pitchers since 2008 to come off the DL and he came up with some very interesting numbers. He only looked at starting pitchers with at least 30 starts since 2008 and they must have at least a 4.50 ERA and 1.40 WHIP or better over that span. These pitchers made 103 combined DL appearances over this time period -- and in their first start off the DL, these pitchers averaged a 4.34 ERA and 1.35 WHIP while producing a Quality Start in just 27.7% of these starts as compared to the 55.3% Quality Start average by all pitchers in 2011. The Phillies have played 5 straight games Over the Total when favored. Philly has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when the number was set in the 7-8.5 range. Cincinnati counters with Homer Bailey whose 4.66 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .275 opponent's batting average at home are all inferior numbers to his 4.22 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and .253 opponent's batting average when on the road. The Reds have played 5 straight games Over the Total with Bailey pitching at home with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Cincy has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Bailey pitching as the underdog. And the Reds should challenge Hamels in this spot since the Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games against left-handed starters. Take the Over in this one while listing both pitchers Cole Hamels and Homer Bailey.
O.C. Dooley
Cincinnati Reds +135
On paper it is the Phillies who appear to have the edge in pitching, but one can argue that Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey (7+ innings in 2 of the past 3 starts) will have more durability especially since Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels (shoulder inflammation) is just coming off the disabled list. The last time Hamels was on the mound he issued a most generous 4 WALKS in 5 innings of work which to me is a red flag warning. Odds are the Phillies will have a bigger mound edge the next two nights when aces Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee take the mound. Another factor to consider is that Philadelphia did not play at all during the weekend due to Hurricane Irene which creates the “rust” factor. Certainly Cincinnati is not suffering from rust as they went 14 innings yesterday at home where the various pitchers racked up 19 STRIKEOUT victims. It was not all that long ago when the Reds went an entire one month stretch without being able to put consecutive victories together, but they enter tonight having won FOUR IN A ROW. In the past 17 games slugger Joey Votto has batted .375 with 9 homeruns along the way. Ever since moving to the leadoff spot Cincinnati veteran Brandon Phillips (.438, 10 RBI, 9 runs scored) has also put up big statistics. Cincinnati as a team is a positive 12-4 when revenging a road blowout loss of 6+ runs against an opponent. Tonight marks the first time that Homer Bailey gets to starts against the Phillies in front of the HOME fans