Nelly
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Pittsburgh + over St. Louis
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While the recent release of Pittsburgh's financial numbers will not exactly inspire the Pirates to give their best tonight, the Pirates could be a favorable underdog play in this match-up. You certainly have to be a bit brave to back this team but when the valuation is right it makes sense to give the Pirates a look at home, as the Pirates are a respectable 28-35 at PNC Park. St. Louis picked up big wins on Saturday and Sunday but the Cardinals had lost five in a row prior to the weekend and Pittsburgh has more home wins than St. Louis has road wins on the year. Kyle Lohse was shelled against a lousy Cubs team in St. Louis in his first start back after nearly three months on the DL. Lohse for his career has far better numbers at home and in that outing he allowed seven runs in just three innings. In 2010 Lohse has made ten starts and he has allowed four or more runs in six of those games. His season road ERA stands at 9.69 and he has just one win to his credit all season long. Ross Ohlendorf owns an ugly 1-10 record on the season but the comparisons with Lohse's body or work this year should end there. Ohlendorf owns a solid 3.90 ERA and he has not allowed more than five hits in a start since before the All Star break. In his last three starts Ohlendorf has allowed just four earned runs and twelve hits in nearly 21 innings. Pittsburgh has solid relief pitching numbers at home as well with a 3.63 season ERA while St. Louis has endured plenty of ups and downs in the bullpen. After a huge series win with a great effort from Jaime Garcia on Sunday this could be a flat spot for the Cardinals and Pittsburgh is worth a small play tonight.
Matt Fargo
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New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Yankees are coming off a very successful homestand where they went 5-2 and that is no surprise as they have been solid at home all season long. They are good on the road as well but not as good and their recent run is 4-5 over their last nine games. Also, they have a 7-11 run in their last 18 road games against teams with a .500 or better record and that goes all the way back to May 10th showing that New York has had a very favorable road schedule over this stretch by playing a lot of losing teams. Toronto lost two of three in Boston over the weekend to put up a disappointing 4-5 roadtrip. Like New York, the Blue Jays are a much better team at home than on the road and they will look to regroup against a New York team they have had good success against this season, going 5-4 in the nine meetings including 2-1 at home in the lone series in Toronto. I consider the Blue Jays to have a pretty significant edge in the starting pitching matchup tonight. They send Brandon Morrow to the hill and he should have a big bounce back game here. He was coming off that one-hitter two starts back where he threw 137 pitchers and it showed in his last game despite having extra rest. His command was nowhere close to where it was and he went just four innings. The good news is that he tossed only 80 pitches so he should be even more rested now. He has faced the Yankees three times already and was hit hard twice but both of those were in New York. His lone home start against the Yankees resulted in a quality start. The Yankees counter with Ivan Nova who was called up to make a spot start to give the regular starters an extra day of rest. He was with New York in May and had two appearances out of the bullpen before being sent back down. Nova was solid at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre but he goes up against one of the best offenses in the league as the Blue Jays are second in the Majors in slugging and first in home runs. Play on American League home favorites with a moneyline of-110 or higher that are hitting .265 or worse and starting a pitcher that strikes out five or more hitters per starts going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better. This situation is 111-39 (74 percent) over the last five seasons. Toronto is 22-8 this season as home favorites of -110 or higher. 3* Toronto Blue Jays
Jack Jones
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Pick: Cincinnati Reds
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With how well the Reds have been playing, getting Cincinnati at this price is a steal Monday. The Reds are 8-1 in their last 9 games overall, and 36-26 in road games this season. Cincinnati is the highest-scoring team in the National League. Edinson Volquez has faced the Giants twice in his career, with the Reds winning both games and outscoring San Francisco 21-8 in the process. This Giants offense is one of the worst in the NL, and in losing their last 2 games they have scored just 1 run while getting outscored 1-14.
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Volquez is 12-3 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. In fact, Volquez is 19-5 against the money line in all road games over the last 2 seasons. Volquez is also 7-0 in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. The Reds are 11-1 in Volquez's last 12 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Cincinnati is 10-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter. So as you can see by all of these trends, we are getting the Reds as a great value play tonight. Take the Reds Monday.
Rocky Atkinson
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Cincinnati @ San Francisco
Play: San Francisco
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San Francisco sits 6 games behind San Diego in the NL West division. They definitely need to nail down these home games to make a charge at the Padres. San Francisco bullpen has a 3.41 ERA overall this year and a 2.59 ERA at home this season. Edison Volquez has a 6.00 ERA on the road this year. Volquez has more walks than strikeouts away from home this season. Matt Cain has a 3.11 ERA overall this year and 6-3 with a 2.62 ERA at home this season. Cain has a 3.21 ERA overall vs Cincinnati since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on San Francisco tonight!
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Texas Rangers -148
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The Rangers have the edge at home tonight against Blackburn, who will be making his first start in the bigs in over a month. He went 1-4 with a 10.92 ERA in his last seven games before being sent to the minors July 30. Blackburn has really struggled on the road, where he is 2-6 with a 10.01 ERA. Get this, he has allowed 13 homers in 43 1/3 road innings this season, allowing opponents to hit .401 off of him. Texas is hitting .293 and scoring 5.5 runs per game at home this season. Look for the Rangers to make Blackburn wish he was still in the minors tonight.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Texas Rangers -150
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Look for the Texas bats to come alive at home tonight as they face Minnesota's Blackburn, who hasn't made a big league start in over a month. He was sent down to the minors for a reason, and the Twins will wish they hadn't brought him back up after tonight. He's carrying an ERA of 10.01 on the road this season, where teams are hitting a ridiculous .401 off of him. Like the Ranger sticks against Blackburn.
Doug Upstone
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
Pick: Boston Red Sox
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The Boston Red Sox starting pitching continues to carry them, as they try to hunt down a wild card berth. In many ways the addition of John Lackey hasn’t meant much since he no longer has dominant stuff and is relying more on guile than ability, at least this year. Boston is ninth in the AL in runs permitted at 4.6 per game, mostly because the bullpen has had more shaky moments than expected this season.
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The Red Sox will see the tosses of Doug Fister of Seattle, who didn’t walk a batter for the first time in 10 starts in Baltimore, but was tagged for 10 base hits in five innings. American League money line favorites of -150 or more, allowing 4.7 or less runs a game on the season, against opponent starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 108-35 the past five seasons.
Info Plays
3* on Colorado Rockies +110
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Reasons the Rockies win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (COLORADO) - poor fielding team - turning 0.8 or less DP's/game on the season. against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts. This is a 44-17 ML System hitting 72.1% since 1997.
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2.) The Rockies are 38-20 at home this season and should not be an underdog to the Braves, who are 29-34 on the road this year. Colorado is hitting .298 while scoring a whopping 5.8 RPG at home in 2010. Jason Hammel is 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA at home this season. Bet the Rockies at home.
Teddy Covers
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Twins @ Rangers
PICK: Over 10.5
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Nick Blackburn has been an Over machine. His last five starts have produced 15, 11, 11, 13 and 14 combined runs, each and every one of those games flying Over the total. Blackburn has been at his worst on the highway, sporting a truly ugly 10.18 ERA and .401 batting average against in ten previous road outings this season. He was demoted to the minors following a particularly ugly start at Baltimore last month, but his AAA numbers didn’t show any real signs of improvement – don’t expect anything resembling a dominating effort tonight in Arlington against a hot Texas lineup (six runs scored in each of their last two games; 18 runs in their most recent three game series at home against Boston).
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Rich Harden is no easier to trust than Blackburn tonight. Harden is coming off yet another stint on the DL, and he threw six innings at Triple A last Thursday; working here on only three days rest. Harden had notched only one quality start in his last nine tries prior to his latest trip to the DL, and the Twins, too, are hitting the ball fairly well of late. Both lineups are hitting .290 or better against righties in their last ten games; neither bullpen is fresh to close out tonight’s game without trouble. 2* Take the Over.
Larry Ness
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Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals
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The Cubs' Lou Piniella had said last month that he would step down following the season but the he announced prior to Sunday’s game with Atlanta that he would be leaving after the game to care for his ailing 90-year-old mother. The Cubs lost 16-5 on Sunday (have now lost 20 of last 24 overall and 12 of last 14 at home), falling to 51-74 (21 1/2 games out in the NL Central). To demonstrate even further what an 'ugly' season it has been, the Cubs' moneyline mark of minus-$3,241 is not only MLB's worst but it is more than $1,000 worse than the Pirates (41-83), who own 10 fewer wins! Mike Quade takes over as interim manager, as Chicago begins a six-game road trip Monday against the Nationals. Washington is a woeful 22-44 on the road but has gone a respectable 31-27 here at home. The Cubs will give rookie Casey Coleman his first major league start, following four relief appearances (0-1, 7.82 ERA). In comparison, Washington's Hernandez will be making his 438th regular season start. Hernandez (who knows how old he is?) has done a superb job this year, having made 25 starts while posting a 3.06 ERA. However, he's just 8-8 (team is 13-12) mostly because he receives among the lowest run support in the NL at 3.39 RPG. That being said, I'll take the vet over the first-timer, who's stuck pitching for the sad-sack Cubs.
Sac Lawson
TOR (-119) vs NYY
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I realize backing a guy like Morrow at home where he is 7-1 against a rookie starter is a bit of a simplistic move. I completely admit to that, but it's also the right move in this specific scenario. Morrow was limited a great deal in his last start, simply because he threw well over 130 pitches in his No-hit bid two starts ago. The fact that he was indeed limited last time out means that he is rested, I like that. He has had some OK success against the Yankees this year as well.
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As for the youngster that the Yanks send to the mound tonight. Nova has definitely had some success this year in the minors. And he's definitely a top prospect for the Yankees. That being said, the last time he saw action in the majors was spring training, and he definitely was not impressive. In fact, the Yankees let him go, and then were forced to take him back on after a tough spring training. My point is, he hasn't proven himself against a major league roster. AT Toronto is a tough spot to turn that around.
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The Yankees are playing basically 0.500 baseball since the break, they certainly aren't playing like the number one team in the division. They send a young, unproven starter to the mound today against a guy in Brandon Morrow who is on top of his game and fully rested. It's time to go ahead and play the short number on the home squad. 1 unit on the Jays.
Tony George
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St Louis -123
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Set up line, maybe, BUT with Pittsburgh hitting a season low .198 against right handers their last 10 games, with little offense, and 2 very bad starting pitchers tonight with 2 wins between the 2 of them all season, I cannot take a team that has little to no offense, even at home against a team like St Louis who is in the heat of a pennant race. Pitt has won just 18 of their last 69 games, playing one the NLs top 4 or 5 teams.
Nite Owl Sports
Cardinals @ Titans
Pick: Over 37
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Although the general public perception among bettors (who else would care about NFL-X totals results?) is that the Unders rule during weeks one and two of the pre-season, which has again helped give us good line value with the Over this week, that has not really been the case recently, as TY‘s pre-season games (thru Sat, Aug 21, and not including the HOF game, which is little more than a glorified scrimmage) have gone a strong 21-9 to the Over, averaging 40 total ppg. And L2+Y (incl TY thru Sat, Aug 21) the Over has gone a combined 30-16 in week two, with an average of 40 total ppg, and TY’s week two games hitting 10-4 to the Over (incl 8-2 Over when the totals line is 37<, as it is for this game) and also averaging 40 total ppg.
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And looking at recent team totals trends in NFL-X for these two teams in their respective modes for this game (Tenn at home and AZ away), we see Titans at 4-2 Over at home L3Y, averaging 39 ppg and AZ at 2-2 away L3Y vs the total in weeks 1-3, averaging 37 ppg (we don’t count week 4 away results in our NFL-X records, because with the real season starting the following week, most teams and coaches simply want to get through that final week of the pre-season without any player injuries, and could care less about the scoreboard in their final NFL-X game, especially if it is away). Those totals results combine and average to 6-4 to the Over for 38 combined ppg (nothing great, but certainly not enough to negate our general support for the Over in this game).
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So based mostly on the recent NFL-X Over trend in weeks one and two, incl TY’s 21-9 Over mark so far in TY’s NFL-X, we’ll go with the Over 37 here for 3 units, but with 37 being probably the most key totals # of all, in regular or pre-season, we would pass at anything > 37.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Texas Rangers -150
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Look for the Texas bats to come alive at home tonight as they face Minnesota's Blackburn, who hasn't made a big league start in over a month. He was sent down to the minors for a reason, and the Twins will wish they hadn't brought him back up after tonight. He's carrying an ERA of 10.01 on the road this season, where teams are hitting a ridiculous .401 off of him. Like the Ranger sticks against Blackburn.
Black Widow
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1* on Twins/Rangers OVER 10.5
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This may be a big total, but we see the Twins and Rangers having no problem combining to score 11 runs or more tonight. That's because both Nick Blackburn and Rich Harden has each been atrocious this season, and two of the worst starters in all of baseball. Blackburn is 7-7 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.683 WHIP this season, including 2-6 with a 10.01 ERA and 2.177 WHIP in 9 road starts. He has allowed 46 earned runs and 90 base runners in 41.1 innings of work away from home. Harden is 4-4 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.655 WHIP this season in 15 starts for Texas. So both pitchers have had major issues in getting hitters out, and that will continue tonight between two of the best offenses in the American League. Texas is scoring 5.5 runs/game at home this year and Minnesota is putting up 5.1 runs/game against right-handed starters. The OVER is 4-0 in Blackburn's last 4 starts. The OVER is 5-1 in the Twins last 6 games. The OVER is 7-1 in Rangers last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams in Texas. Take the OVER 10.5 runs here.