Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Sacramento +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There is no small risk in backing a Kings team who is just 1-6 SU away, and who has lost 16 consecutive trips to Big D. But without Dirk in the lineup, the Mavs are just 1-4 ATS HF of late. Meanwhile, surging Sac has recorded three consecutive victories as this emerging team builds momentum. But it is a most recent game for each that saw Dallas upset Houston, and Sac upset Portland, that has keyed this strong situation. In NBA action, road teams off a SU road dog win, are 41-16 ATS (72%) against home chalk that comes off a straight up underdog win vs a divisional rival. Let's try these upstart Kings as the underdog. This puppy is backed up by a 41-16 ATS (72%) underdog situation.
Jeff Scott Sports
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4 UNIT PLAY
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Dallas/ Sacramento Under 200: Really like this play, especially with how this teams have been playing of late. Dallas is off a high scoring game vs the Rockets, bur everyone gets into shootouts with them. Despite the 225 points that were scored in that game, Dallas' last 5 games have still averaged just 193.2 ppg. The Mavs offense put up 116 points in the Houston game, but this group has still be struggling as they averaged 90.7 ppg in their 6 games prior to the Houston game. Now they face a Kings team that is playing with confidence defensively, having allowed just 162 points in their last 2 games. The Kings last 6 games overall have not been all that high scoring, as those games have averaged just 188.5 ppg. The Kings offense has not been that great this year, especially on the road where they have averaged just 91 ppg, while in their last 6 overall they have put up just 93.1 ppg. The Dallas offense has been shaky this year, but just don't see the Kings going wild on them in this one. I don't expect either team to hit 100 points in this one as I look for it to be played in the low 190's at best. KEY TREND--- The Under is 9-2 in the Mavericks last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
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3 UNIT PLAY
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POWER ANGLE PLAY
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Charlotte/ Golden State Over 202.5: The Charlotte offense has not been great this year, but they have shown signs of late as of late, putting up 10.5 ppg in their last 5 games, while at home they have averages 98.4 ppg, which isn't too shabby for this team. Defensively is where the Bobcats have had their struggles this year, allowing 103.4 ppg (28th) overall, including a whopping 112.4 ppg in their last 5 games. In their last 9 games they have allowed 100+ points 8 times and will be taking on a hot Golden State offense that has averaged 102.8 ppg in their last 6 games. Overall the warriors average 99.5 ppg on the road, while their defense allows 100.5 ppg away from home. I look for both teams to crack 100+ points as this one puts at least 212 points on the board, just like in last year's meeting (212 points). POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Bobcats are 15-0 Over since November 16, 2004 as a home dog after a game at home in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. This play has covered by an average of 16.3 ppg.
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4 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NEW ENGLAND -4,5 over Houston: Watching ESPN this morning and I really like what Herm Edwards said. The Texans are really making this into their biggest game game they have ever played and with that they have now put a ton of pressure on themselves and teams that do that don't always perform the best. Don't get me wrong, this is a big game for the Pats as well, but they don't put pressure on themselves like other teams will do. They just go out and get the job done. The Patriot offense has been machine like this year as they have averaged 35.8 ppg overall and 34.8 ppg at home. A big addition to the pats offense has been a running game that has come alive to rank 8th in the league at 140.8 ypg. A running game to go along with this passing games makes them nearly impossible to stop. The Texan defense is 6th overall, but they can be thrown on, ranking 16th vs the pass (234.8 ypg). including allowing 352 ypg passing in their last 3 games. Let's also note that Houston has struggled vs 3 very good offenses this year (Green Bay, Detroit and Denver), allowing 32.6 ppg in the 3 games, plus they did allow a weak Jacksonville offense to pass for 372 yards and put up 37 points on them just 3 games ago. This unit has been hit by some injuries and it's starting to wear down and a road date in December vs the Pats is not what a worn down defense needs. The Houston offense has been very good this year, but the Pats defense has not been all that bad as tyhey have allowed just 21.7 ppg on the year. They do give up allot of yards passing, but allot of that is garbage yards when teams are trying top catch up. This is a big game for both teams, but the Pats will handle the pressure so much better. New England will make a statement in this game with a win by double digits.
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Golden State Warriors at Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Charlotte BobcatsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The (13-7) Golden State Warriors of the NBA western Conference Pacific division will take on the (7-12) Charlotte Bobcats of the Eastern Conference Southeast division in 2012 NBA action. Golden State has won 6 of their last 7 straight, including their last 3 in a row on the road. Charlotte has covered 5 of the last 6 Against The Spread vs. Golden State. The Bobcats has lost their last 7 NBA games straight up, but will get the home cover tonight.
DAVID BANKS
Texans / Patriots Over 51
We could witness the start of a new regime on Monday Night Football when the traditional powerhouses, the New England Patriots (9-3, 7-5 ATS) host the new giants of the AFC, the Houston Texans (11-1, 8-4 ATS) at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA at 8:35 ET on ESPN. Although the Texans are 11-1, they have not caught the fascination of the entire country yet because they have had some close calls vs. some mediocre competition. That could change if they can pull off a win here vs. Tom Brady & Co. on the road. The Patriots come in riding a six-game winning streak of their own, matching the winning streak of the Texans since their only loss to the Green Bay Packers at home.
Thus Houston is a perfect 6-0 on the road going 4-2 ATS in those games, and they have both one of the best running games and best defenses in the NFL. That could be another reason why the Texans have not captured the public fancy as they do not get involved in many high-scoring shootouts like the Patriots do. Instead, all Houston does is win by ranking sixth in the NFL in rushing offense at 141.4 yards per game and an identical sixth in total defense at 322.9 yards, as well as fourth in scoring defense allowing just 18.4 points per contest. Houston is very physical on the line on both sides of the ball, as the offensive line has opened up some gaping holes for Arian Foster to run through and the defense lines heads a front seven that has 37 sacks through 12 games. Winning the battles on both lines of scrimmage can help make the Texans the undisputed new kings of the AFC Monday night.
Now Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, and New England will obviously always merit respect as long as he is under center. But he does not like getting hit much, and you may recall that the few teams that have beaten the Patriots in recent years were all teams that play physical defense and that get to the quarterback out of a base defense without needing to blitz, as Brady can beat any blitzing defense. Well, the Texans fit that mold. Moreover, the New England offensive line has had a few breakdowns this season as it is not as good or as deep as in recent seasons. One way to slow down the Houston pass rush is by running the ball effectively, and Stevan Ridley is an upgrade at running back over other New England feature backs in recent years. The problem of course is that Houston leads the AFC and ranks second in the NFL in rushing defense allowing a scant 88.2 yards per game on the ground.
The Texans are coming off of a 24-10 win at Tennessee, and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. They are also 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 conference games overall as their lines are still not padded as much as other elite teams. The Patriots are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
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Detroit vs. PhiladelphiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There’s definitely a payback motive for Philly after being humbled by Pistons at Wells Fargo Center back on Nov. 14. But Sixers’ performance pattern continues to be erratic (maybe Philly could really use Andrew Bynum after all), and Doug Collins’ bunch got basically noting from its frontline in that earlier 94-76 defeat in which Detroit held Sixers to 29.8% shooting from floor. Pistons playing at very competitive level since that first meeting, and Philly has rarely had an easy game this season. Points work at Wells Fargo Center.
Scott Delaney
Scored an comp winner on the Seattle Seahawks yesterday as they crushed Arizona 58-0. Tonight should be just as easy, as I like the Golden State Warriors (-4') on the road at Charlotte.
I'm not exactly sure who to pinpoint all the credit to, but the Warriors have found a groove and look to be in great shape to move out to 4-0 on a current Eastern Conference road trip, as a part of a seven-game tour. They're in after defeating Washington, 101-97, in their latest stop, this past Saturday, and now play the struggling Bobcats.
While Golden State has won 10 of its past 13 games, the 'Cats have lost seven in a row overall and five straight at home. So even though Golden State has lost five of the last six meetings, I don't think Charlotte has what it takes to challenge the Warriors right now.
Charlotte has just been sad on defense of late, allowing an average of 110.0 points during their losing streak and come in after giving up a whopping 132 to San Antonio in a 30-point loss on Saturday. The Spurs drained a franchise-record 19 3-pointers, while seven players chipped in with double figures.
Riding a three-game win streak on the wood, a 6-2 ATS streak versus Eastern Conference teams and sitting in second place in the Pacific Division right now, my money is on the Warriors
5♦ GOLDEN STATE
Chuck O'Brien
Quick, who's the hottest team in Atlanta.
Some might like to think it's the Dirty Birds - er, the Falcons who lost to the sub-.500 Carolina Panthers yesterday. But at this point in the season, can the fans really stomach the loss to an underachieving Carolina squad?
I say the Hawks are the hotter team out of the A-T-L, as they've won nine of 10 and are looking awfully dangerous at 12-5 this season. At least, for tonight, they're giving something the fans to cheer about, right?
If you haven't seen this team play, now is the time to tune in, as they take on the defending champion Miami Heat, and I implore you to watch that stifling defene. Atlanta, on defense, is as solid a unit as you might ask for. Ranked sixth overall on defense, the team is rated second in opponents’ turnover percentage (16.5 percent). That means they're committing the thievery, and protecting the rock on their own.
Point guard Jeff Teague ranks 10th in assists percentage, Al Horford has noticably elevated his play with 16.6 points per game and 10.2 rebounds per contest and Josh Smith is burying treys at a 38.1 percent clip.
Remember, this is the same Hawks team that was going after Dwight Howard, who could very well be wondering what the hell he is doing in purple and gold with a team that is 9-12, and sitting in third place behind Clippers and Warriors.
Two weeks ago the a well-rested Heat team beat the shorthanded Spurs and shorthanded Nets. Then they lost two of three, one in Washington and one at home to the Knicks. The Hawks won three straight last week - over Denver, Washington and at Memphis. Part of this 9-1 run includes a win over those aforementioned Clippers, leaders of the Pacific Division.
Sorry, but this line is disrespectful, and I won't even resort to the betting trends that are in Atlanta's favor cause that's irrelevant here. What matters is the hottest team, arguably, in the league - and the A-T-L - is coming after an unsuspecting Heat team that just lost to the Wizards recently.
Take the points.
3♦ ATLANTA
Jeff Benton
46-34 freebie run coming into Monday night.
Tonight's freebie is the Atlanta Hawks plus the points at Miami.
Cannot pass on grabbing the points here, as the Hawks have been soaring, winners of nine of their last ten games straight up, and they are the owners of a positive 5-2 road mark this season.
As for Miami, the Heat followed up their shocking loss last week to the lowly Wizards with their first home loss of the season to the Carmelo-less Knicks on Thursday, but did get back in the win column against New Orleans their last time out.
Still, Miami is just 5-5 against the spread on their home floor this season. This is the second meeting of the season between the clubs, as Miami won a six point decision in Atlanta just over a month ago as Miami extended their winning streak over Atlanta to four in a row.
The Hawks are itching to show the Heat they are a viable contender in the Eastern Conference, so I am taking the points with an Atlanta team that will come out tonight looking to prove something to Miami.
Hawks keep it close.
3♦ ATLANTA
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is going to be on the Detroit Pistons, as I think they're going to easily cover the touchdown-6 the Philadelphia 76ers are laying tonight.
This is one of those games where I'm ot sure if it's about the team I am betting on, or the team I am betting against. After all, the 76ers' offense has been non-existent since the start of December and the team is off to a 1-3 start this month. Now they take on a team that held them to their least amount points this season in a 94-76 thrashing back on Nov. 14. And that game was right here in Philadelphia.
The Sixers are in after getting thumped by the Boston Celtics, 92-79, on Saturday, when they shot a bleak 39.2 percent. That was just one night after hitting an even worse 37.4 percent from the floor the previous night in a 95-94 overtime win over those same Celtics.
Philly comes into this one ranked among the worst in the NBA with its 42.5 field-goal percentage. In that loss to the Pistons last month, the Sixers shot a horrendous 29.8 percent from the field. Detroit is allowing just 96.82 points per game - 14th in the league - while it is limiting the opposition to just 43.4 shooting from the field - 7th in the league.
I'll take the points in this one.
3♦ DETROIT
Matt Rivers
65-54 comp play run.
For Monday night, take Golden State in the NBA to pick up the road win and cover at Charlotte.
Mark Jackson's team has been impressive this season, as Golden State has won their first three on their current seven game road swing, as the Warriors are now 7-4 overall on the road this season.
As for Charlotte, things have cooled off in Bobcat-land, as the 'Cats losing streak is at seven in a row with just two covers in those seven losses.
Charlotte does own a two game series winning streak, and they have won five of the last six overall meetings between the teams, but this is a new season, and the play of Curry on the perimeter coupled with the play of Lee in the paint has led to 10 wins in the last 13 games for the visiting Warriors.
Have to lay it with the surging Warriors tonight as they hand the Bobcats loss #8 in a row.
4♦ GOLDEN STATE
Harry Bondi
ATLANTA (+7.5) over Miami Heat
As usual, the Heat is overvalued here tonight. This is way too many points to give a Hawks team that is sizzling hot, winning nine of its last 10 games straight up, while posting a 5-2 ATS record on the road this season. Miami has won four of the last five in the series, but only one of those wins was by more than seven points. Miami is just 8-10 against the spread this season because the line is typically inflated and they also come in just 2-5 ATS against teams with a winning record. Take the generous points.