Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 12

David Chan

New Jersey Devils @ Tampa Bay Lightning
PICK: Tampa Bay Lightning

The 14-13-1 New Jersey Devils storm into Tampa to take on the 12-15-2 Lightning.

The Devils are coming off a 2-1 setback to the Habs on Saturday morning; the loss marked the teams sixth in its last eight outings:

“Once you get into a two-goal hole that late in the third period, it’s tough to bounce back,” Devils head coach Peter DeBoer said. “Giving up the second goal was disheartening. In a game like this, getting the lead is the key. Once we were from behind, it was tough to come back.”

Tampa is coming off a setback itself, losing 5-2 in Philadelphia on Saturday night; the loss marked the Lightnings sixth loss in their last seven games.

“Turnovers led to two goals, you have to give it to them they played well, let’s not undermine what they did, but we killed ourselves, sabotaged ourselves,” Lightning coach Guy Boucher said.

Both teams are struggling to find consistency, and in such cases, outside factors often can play a roll in the outcome of the contest.

Home ice-advantage can not be overlooked here; I'm backing the Bolts!

Jim Feist

Fordham vs Siena
Pick: Siena

Atlantic 10 Conference club Fordham travels to New York to face MACC Conference team Siena. Fordham plays in a much tougher conference with the likes of U Mass, Xavier and Temple. Still, looks to be a long season for the Rams. They are coming off a loss at Monmouth on Saturday, 80-65. There have only been three games for the Rams with lines and they are 0-3 ATS. In the last four games, Fordham lost by 18, 34 and 15 points in their three losses. They did sandwich a win in there at home over Hampton, 54-53. Meanwhile, Siena played a very tough game at U Mass on Friday but came up on the short end, 82-78. The Saints beat Albany NY the game before, 64-60, so they had some momentum going to U Mass. And, they gave a good U Mass team all it could handle. If we get the same effort tonight, this Siena club should easily win. My own personal power ratings give a double-digit edge to Siena so I'll lay the points with the Saints.

Cajun Sports

Portland State vs. Oregon
Play: Portland St +14.5

Portland State travels to play the Oregon Ducks on Monday evening playing their second and final game of a short two-game road trip. The Ducks on the other hand are playing the second of a six-game home stand that began when they defeated Fresno State 74 to 70 on Saturday failing to cover for the third straight time. In fact, the Ducks have only covered twice this season dropping the other five to the number. Oregon is 5-2 on the season overall including 4-0 at home but only 1-3 ATS on their home floor. Over their last five games, they are averaging 74.4 points per game and allowing 69.0 points per game. Portland State is 5-3 SU on the year including 2-3 SU on the highway with a 2-2 ATS mark. Their last five games have seen an increase in their scoring with an average of 77.0 points per game while defensively they are allowing 64.4 points per game. Our TPR Index projects an Oregon victory by 10.3 points, which has them failing once again to cover the spread. The Math Model has a point differential of only 11.0 points in favor of the Ducks. With their poor ATS performances this season we will play against them here as Portland State keeps this one within the number, take the points.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Portland State 64 Oregon Ducks 73

SPORTS WAGERS

SEATTLE –10 over St. Louis

Sam Bradford (ankle) and A.J. Feeley (thumb) have not practiced this week and will not play. That leaves Tom Brandstater as the starter. The Rams are 2-10 on a three game losing streak and bring their 1-5 road record to Seattle where the Seahawks are 3-3. This is just the replay from three weeks ago when the Seahawks won 24-7 in St. Louis, only this time the game is in Seattle and the Rams are going with a third string QB. There is no team with a lower morale than the Rams and while many teams suffering through this kind of season may welcome an opportunity to make some sort of amends on a Monday nighter, this St. Louis team quite simply does employ the personnel that is capable of doing so. The Seachickens are also playing on 11 days rest after that thumping over Philadelphia on a Thursday. We saw what Philly did to Miami yesterday on extra days rest and this late in the year it has an even bigger impact. How can this one go any other way? Play: Seattle –10 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Passing NHL

BANG THE BOOK

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10, 36.5)

The St. Louis Rams and the Seattle Seahawks are set to square off in Monday Night Football betting action this week at CenturyLink Field. But before you make your NFL picks for the big game on Monday, check out some of the great NFL betting trends that we have for the duel!

St. Louis Rams Notes: The Rams really have nothing to play for but pride and draft positioning in this one, as they are clearly long since out of the playoff race. Head Coach Steve Spagnuolo needs to show some spunk in these final few games to feel relatively safe about keeping his job, as this is now the second disastrous season that he has had in the three in which he has been in the Gateway to the West. St. Louis might be 9-4 ATS in its last 13 road games against teams with a losing home record, but that’s where the positive NFL betting trends stop. The Rams are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games played in division, and they are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC. They’re also 1-6 ATS in their last seven as road underdogs dating back to last year’s loss right here on this field in the game that proved to be for the NFC West title and the No. 4 seed in the playoffs.

Regardless of who is under center this week for the Rams, they are going to have to get something out of their ground game. Last week was tough for RB Steven Jackson, as he was going against a San Fran defense that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season long. He ended the day with 10 carries for 19 yards, the third straight game in which he has failed to average even four yards per carry. Jackson has rumbled for 832 yards and four scores this year in basically what has amounted to be nine games. Those are great numbers, but without a passing game to help him out, this offense is just dead in the water.

This St. Louis offense looks like a M*A*S*H* unit. QB Sam Bradford sat out last week wit an ankle injury, and then QB AJ Feeley busted up his thumb in the shutout loss to the Niners. Both quarterbacks are questionable, and neither is overly hopeful to be able to play, which leaves just QB Tom Brandstater to take snaps. WR Danny Amendola and WR Greg Salas are already on IR, as are reserves TE Michael Hoomanawanui and WR Mark Clayton. RB Cadillac Williams has a calf injury that has him listed as questionable, while three lineup have been ruled out of the lineup as well. Defensively, LB Josh Hull has a hamstring injury that will likely cost him a third straight game, while DE Chris Long has an ankle sprain that has him listed as questionable.

Seattle Seahawks Notes: This is the final game on a three-game home stand for the Seahawks, and it is the first of the bunch that there is no doubt they should win. They’ll rue the day that they were beaten by the Washington Redskins, as they would have had a chance to draw even in the Wild Card race with a win in this one had they not lost it. That being said, in all likelihood, the Hawks will be just a game back with three to play if they can win this game, which is remarkable for a team that was written off a month ago. Seattle has gone 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games on Monday Night Football, and it is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against the NFC. The Seahawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 divisional tussles and 6-2 ATS in their last eight at home. The downer though, is the fact that they are a stunningly bad 3-24-2 ATS in their last 29 games following a two touchdown victory.

The Seahawks dominated time of possession when these two teams met earlier this year in a 24-7 victory for the visitors at the Edward Jones Dome. RB Marshawn Lynch had 27 carries for 88 yards and a TD, and he comes into this one having scored a TD in eight straight games. Lynch has had at least 22 carries in five straight games, and it should come as no surprise that that has translated into four covers in that stretch as well. Lynch could be working on a Pro Bowl season. He has 854 yards on the ground and 170 more as a receiver, and he has a total of nine TDs.

Believe it or not, there really aren’t that many injuries to report. T Russell Okung has a pectoral injury that landed him on IR this week, and WR Sidney Rice is also out for the season with a concussion. There are no new injuries aside from that.

Head To Head: This has been a bad series for the Rams. They are just 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series, and they haven’t even covered a game in Seattle since 2006, a streak of four in a row. This is also generally an ‘under’ series as well. The ‘under’ has gone 5-2 in the last seven meetings here at CenturyLink Field, while it is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings overall. Seattle won the first meeting of the season 24-7, and it is going for its fourth series sweep in the last five years in this rivalry on Monday.

PICK: Seattle Seahawks

Sean Murphy

Portland State @ Oregon
PICK: Under 145

When these two teams met last season, the total closed at 153 points. Oregon won that game 68-49, as it stayed comfortably 'under' the number.

The oddsmakers have made an adjustment, shifting the total down to 145 (at the time of posting) for this year's matchup. Is it enough of an adjustment? I'm not so sure.

I like the fact that both of these teams do an excellent job cleaning up on the defensive glass. Offensive rebounding is a key area to look at when it comes to 'capping college hoops totals, simply due to the boatload of second-chance opportunities that a lot of teams give up. I don't believe we'll see much in the way of that tonight.

Portland State doesn't have great two-point defense, but I don't think that hurts the Vikings all that much in this matchup. Note that they've held the opposition to 24.4% shooting from three-point range, good for sixth in the nation. That will be key against an Oregon offense that likes to shoot the three, and has been extremely successful in that regard, shooting 36% on the season.

Oregon has given up 70+ points in three of its last four games, but keep in mind, the Ducks have allowed those totals against Nebraska, BYU, and Fresno State. They'll be taking a step down in class against Portland State tonight.

I mentioned Oregon's strong three-point shooting, the polar opposite of Portland State, which shoots 23.2% from the outside, that ranks near the bottom of Division-I basketball.

All of this leads me to believe we'll see a lot of contested shots from the outside. Neither team has a truly dominant inside presence. The Vikings have Tapscott and Lozeau in the paint both averaging double-digits in scoring, but remember, they were held in check by the Ducks last season, combining to score only 11 points.

I won't be surprised if this one plays out a lot like last year's meeting. We may see a little more scoring, but not enough to warrant a total in the mid-140s.

Eddie Keen

New Jersey at Tampa Bay
Play: New Jersey

New Jersey vs. Tampa Bay - The Books have Tampa Bay as -120 favorites which seems like a trap to get the public to take Tampa Bay as small home favorites. There is a lot of under-rated value in taking New Jersey tonight. They are coming off a close loss to Montreal 1-2 but before that game had back to back wins over Toronto and Ottawa. Look for them to bounce back after that loss with another win tonight. Tampa Bay has only won one matchup in their last seven matchups. New Jersey already beat Tampa Bay this season 4-2 as +115 road dogs. Tampa Bay is 5-10 SU as a favorite this season and will suffer another loss tonight against New Jersey.

Vegas Experts

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks

The Rams take on the Seahawks this evening and with St. Louis really struggling with their quarterback situation, look for a very strong win from Seattle. Seattle is laying double digits in this matchup but should easily cover the spread as St. Louis tends to really struggle on the road. St. Louis has only won one road game and is 1-5 ATS on the road so far this season. The only road game they won and covered was against a terrible Cleveland Browns team and they only won 13-12 as three point underdogs. The Rams have only averaged 9 points per game when playing on the road this season and its going to be another terrible offensive night for the Rams. Seattle already beat St. Louis 24-7 as three point road dogs this year and will come back with another strong home win. Seattle is 7-4 ATS so far this season and 4-1 ATS when playing against St. Louis over the last three seasons. They will add another ATS win to that record with a huge double digit win over the Rams tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Portland State vs. Oregon
Play: Over 146

With a limited board tonight this appears to be the best play in hoops. Oregon plays an up tempo style and has gone over the total in 5 straight games as a home favorite from -12.5 to -15.5. In December games they have flown over in 8 of the last 12. In Non conference games 16 of the last 24 have played over and of the last 8 times Oregon has played off 3 or more straight spread losses 6 have gone over the total. Portland St has gone over the total in 5 of 6 as a road dog from +12.to 15 and 12 of 18 with 1 or less day of rest. Look for this game to go over the total.

Steve Janus

Siena -8

Siena is worthy of a small wager if you are looking for some action on the hardwood tonight. While both teams come in with a couple of bad records, Siena has played the much tougher schedule up to this point.

The Saints snapped a five-game losing streak with a 64-60 win over Albany at home and nearly went on the road and upset Massachusetts, losing 78-82 as 13-point underdogs.

Fordham is just 3-5, but those three wins all came at home against some pretty bad opponents in Binghamton, Colgate, and Hampton. Fordham has played four road games this season, and none of them have even been close, losing by an average of 22-points.

This will be the Rams third straight game on the road, and fourth game in eight days. In their last two games they lost 47-81 at Manhattan and 65-80 at Monmouth. They haven't shot better than 36% in each of their last three games, and are shooting just 37% on the season. I look for Fordham to have extremely tired legs in this game, which should allow the Saints to take control early and never look back.

Siena 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Atlantic 10, while Fordham is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5.

Dave Price

1 Unit Arkansas-Little Rock +8

The Oral Roberts Golden Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. The Arkansas-LR Trojans, meanwhile, are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the points.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Fordham +8

The Siena Saints have been a poor investment at home to say the least. In fact, they're just 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 home games. It has also been best to stay away from the Saints when they're laying points considering they are a lousy 1-13 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. It's no secret Fordham isn't very good. It's only averaging 59.0 points per game and is getting outscored by an average of 10.0 points on the season. But that's not enough to keep me off the Rams here. Consider that Siena is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games versus poor offensive teams averaging 64 points or fewer and 0-7 ATS in its last 7 contests versus teams that are being outscored by 8.0 or more points per game. We'll take the points.

Jack Jones

Portland State +13.5

The Oregon Ducks should not be this heavily favored Monday night against Portland State. I expect this game to go right down to the wire in a contest between two pretty evenly-matched teams.

Oregon is 5-2 SU on the season, but just 2-5 ATS. The Ducks haven't been blowing teams out this year despite playing a fairly soft schedule. Only one of their five wins has come by more than 8 points.

Portland State is a quality team at 5-3 SU and 2-2 ATS on the year. Only one of their three losses has come by more than 8 points, and that was a 14-point setback at a very good Wyoming team as a 10-point underdog.

Oregon is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Oregon is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games as well. Bet Portland State Monday.

Dom Chambers

For my free selection, let’s look at the under in the St. Louis Rams-Seattle Seahawks game.

The Rams are struggling offensively as they average 11.7 points a game. Their quarterback situation is up in the air and they may have to turn to Tom Brandstater, who was promoted from the practice squad last week. He has not taken an NFL snap yet.

The Seahawks have been playing well. They are allowing only 14.7 points a game in their last three games. They are scoring 24 points a game.

Both teams will be relying on the running game. The Rams to try and settle the offense, will lean on Steven Jackson. Marshawn Lynch has picked up his game as he has rushed for 591 yards and five touchdowns since Week 9.

With both teams running the ball, that will shorten the game and that is good for the under.

3♦ UNDER