Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play, I'm taking the OVER in tonight's Rams/Seahawks contest. I know plenty of bettors are going the other direction with the total given the perceived ineptitude of these two offenses, but I'm looking at this from a different perspective.
Neither defense has been particularly effective, and with two running backs who should find success tonight, I see enough points being scored to warrant a play on the over.
Since Lynch has gotten going, the Seahawks have been consistently scoring points, averaging 24 ppg over their L3 games, including 31 against Philly in their last one. St. Louis meanwhile, despite the fact Brandstater may start, has the more talented back, playing with a chip on his shoulder following last week's pathetic effort against the 49ers. It won't be pretty, but there will be some points on the board.
A couple trends to think about... The over is 5-0 in the Seahawks last 5 home games. And speaking to my point about Steven Jackson running hard following his stinker at San Fran, the over is 9-3 in the Rams last 12 games following a game where they gained less than 90 yards rushing. All things considered, take the OVER in tonight's Rams/Seahawks contest.
2♦ OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Monday night freebie is the Under in the Rams-Seahawks game.
The Rams have been held to 16-points or less in ten of their twelve games this season, and that does indeed include a 7-point output in the season's first meeting with Seattle less than a month ago.
As a result of their limited attack, St. Louis has held under the total in four of their last five games, and seven of their last nine overall. This series has also been trending towards the under of late, as each of the last three series showdowns have held low, and the under is on an overall 6-2-1 tear the last nine teams these NFC West rivals have played pigskin.
The Rams figure to struggle on offense once again tonight, as Bradford is limited with a high-ankle sprain, Feeley is out with a broken thumb on his throwing hand, and Brandstater has yet to take a live snap in the NFL.
Couple that with the fact both teams will try and establish a running game with Jackson and Lynch, and I think the clock tonight will not be stopped too often.
It is a low total, but it is a low total for a reason.
Stay under this Monday night in the Rams-Seahawks clash.
3♦ UNDER
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
Seattle/ St Louis Over 38: Quite simply, this is both teams' Superbowl. Neither team will be in the playoffs and both coaches know that this is not the game people want to see on MNF, so I look for them to generate excitement with trick plays, lots of passing, going on 4th downs ect. Both playbooks will be WIDE open. It may be the only way to keep the fans interested. Seattle's Marshawn Lynch has been tearing it up as late as he has compiled an NFL-best 591 yards on the ground and five rushing TDs since Week 9. Now he gets to take on the leagues worst run defense, as St Louis has allowed 158 ypg on the ground. Running the ball effectively will only help the 24th ranked Seattle passing game. Last week they had 174 yards on the ground vs the Eagles and while they had just 173 yards through the air Jackson was efficient hitting on 13 of 16 passes and that can be attributed to effective running. The Rams offense has been stuck in the mud for much of the year, mostly due to injuries, but Bradford is expected to start tonight and I look for him to have a good night, especially vs a Seattle defense that has allowed 236.2 ypg through the air (18th). Overall the Rams defense has not been that go0od as they have allowed 24.7 ppg and 366 ypg overall, while allowing 23.8 ppg and 355 ypg on the road. St Louis has scored just 8.3 ppg on the road, but i do expect them to squeeze out at least 14 points in this one, with the Seahawks getting the rest. I expect TO's to also be a factor that could set up both teams for some easy scores. As I said at the top, this should be a wide open game as both teams have nothing to lose here, and while St Louis does struggle to score, I see them getting enough points here to help push this one Over the total. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play the Over if the home teams allowed 14 points or less last time out, while their opponent scored 14 or more in their last game. This system is 47-18 the last 5 seasons.
SEATTLE -9.5 over St. Louis: In following him through his college coaching career and from what Ive seen in the pros so far, Pete Carroll is a dick. LOL. He's like a shark. If he smells blood he will attack. With all the injuries that St Louis has he knows his team is clearly superior and he will attack them tonight and try for the blowout. I can see him trying to run up the score here (which should also help my over play as well. St. Louis has been outscored 114-25 in its last four visits to Seattle and they have been outscored by 15.1 ppg on the road this year. These teams met a month ago and Seattle won by 17, and since then the Seahawks have gotten better, while the Rams have regressed, especially with all the injuries piling up. Seattle is 7-3-1 in their last 10 on MNF, including 5-2-1 ATS in their 8 here. Let's also Play against any road dog of 3.5 to 10 if they scored 14 or less in their last game and their opponent scored 30 or more. This system is 43-13 ATS the last 10 seasons. I expect a 3win by Seattle of at least 14 points.