Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 13,2010

James Patrick Sports

Wisconsin Green Bay vs. Wisconsin

The Badgers were (16-1) SU in home games last season and are consistently one of the toughest home teams in the country, posting a (10-5) ATS record at Kohl Center last season. Since Bo Ryan took over this program 10 seasons ago the Badgers have the best record in conference play (107-43). Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection in NCAA College Basketball action is Wisconsin Badgers.

Tom Freese

Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers

Memphis is 6-5 straight up at home this year. The Grizzlies are 5-15-1 ATS their 21 games. Memphis is 8-18-2 ATS their last 26 home games and they are 3-13-2 ATS their last 18 home games vs. a team with losing road record. Portland is 12-12 straight up this year. The Blazers are 40-18 ATS when playing with no rest. Portland is 6-2 ATS their last 8 games as underdogs of 0.5 to 4.5 points. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games overall and they are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 meetings in Memphis.

JIM FEIST

WARRIORS / JAZZ
PLAY: OVER

Golden State riding a seven game straight-up losing streak into tonight's game at Utah. The Warriors have little defense, as six straight opponents have scored at least 105 points and 11 of the l2. In fact, of all the games the Warriors have played this season, just five teams have scored less than 100 points against them. As you can see where I'm going here, I'm looking at the total in this contest. And, in particular, the OVER. Why the OVER? Is it just because of the fact that the Warriors have the 2nd worst defensive team in the NBA? Well, that's part of it, they are allowing 108 ppg on the road this year. But, strangely enough, when these two teams get together they usually play UNDERS. They have met once this year and that was a very low scoring game, with the Warriors winning in Sacramento, 85-78. And, if we look back at the last few years, these teams are 0-6-1 Over/Under in their last seven meetings. However, if we look at the totals posted on those games we will find every game was 221 or higher. So tonight the oddsmakers come out with a 210, a drastic drop in the total. And as of the writing of this article, the line has dropped to 209. Obviously there has been a major change in the oddsmakers thinking. So of the last seven games, how would they have faired against tonight's line? How about 4-3 Over/under. Yep, they have been close, just not enough to get over that 220's total. So tonight I am going to take advantage of the gracious drop in line by both the oddsmaker and the betting public and go OVER here.

EZWINNERS

New York Giants -3

I expect Brett Favre to start this game for the Vikings, but I'm not sure if he will finish it against a Giants defense that has knocked out quite a few signal caller this season. I expect Favre to be under heat the whole game and even if T-Jack does come in, the Giants defense has put the hurt to mobile quarterbacks Mike Vick and Donovan McNabb as well this season. Minnesota has won two straight games but all the problems are not fixed. The Giants offense will be healthier as they return some injured offensive linemen which should allow Eli a little more time to make some plays down field. I expect Minnesota to get back to their losing ways. Lay the points.

VEGAS EXPERTS

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings

Both teams scored 31 or more points last week. The Giants have gone Over in 18 of their last 27 games overall, including 15 of 20 against NFC opponents. They are a perfect 7-0 Over after winning their last game by 21 or more points.

Play on: Over

Sam Martin

Wis-Green Bay at Wisconsin
Prediction: Wisconsin

This line is too high for us to release as a premium selection, but we feel the Wisconsin Badgers still hold some line value here. Wisconsin is a notoriously tough team to beat at home, and they've started out a perfect 5-0 at home this season with all five wins coming by double-digits. We don't expect much of a fight from Wisconsin Green Bay, who already has four double-digit losses this year, and face a Badgers team playing with revenge from the shocking loss last year in this series (WGB won by four points at home as a 5.5-point home dog). Badgers roll!

Rocketman

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -8.5

Milwaukee is 9-13 overall this year while Dallas comes in with a 19-4 overall record on the season. Milwaukee is 1-9 ATS this year in non-conference games. Dallas is 8-2 ATS this year after 3 or more consecutive wins. Dallas will be going for their 13th straight win here tonight. Bucks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. Bucks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win. Bucks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. Bucks are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Bucks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Bucks are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference. Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Mavericks are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. Mavericks are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Home team is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Dallas tonight!

LT Profits

Bucks / Mavericks Over 186½

The ‘over’ is now an amazing 15-3 in the last 18 head-to-head meetings between the Atlanta Hawks and the Dallas Mavericks, and we are looking for that key NBA trend to continue in the initial NBA matchup between these teams in 2010-11 on Monday night in Dallas.

The NBA latest line from Bookmaker for this contest has the total posted at 186½, with the betting odds set at -110.

Granted, both of these teams have winning ‘under’ records vs. the NBA betting odds this season, but then again, most of those contests were not against posted totals this low either. In fact, the ‘over’ is now on a 5-0 run in this head-to-head series, and all five of those encounters exceeded 200 total points.

The ‘under’ is 12-11 in all Dallas games vs. the NBA odds, but their games are averaging a combined 191.3 points, which would be good enough to go ‘over’ this total by nearly five points. Yes, the Mavericks play great defense at home, where they are allowing only 91.6 points per game on 42,2 percent shooting, but their home games are still averaging a combined 188.5 points, which would still go ‘over’ this total.

Now it is true that the Bucks are dead last in the NBA in scoring at only 91.5 points per game, and as a result the ‘under’ is 13-9 in NBA betting in all Milwaukee games. However, they make up for that by not playing great defense on the road, where they are allowing 96.7 points per game on 45.4 percent shooting, As a result, Milwaukee road games are averaging a combined 187.8 points, again good enough to sneak ‘over’ this number.

It may not easy and may take until the middle to late fourth quarter, but look for the Bucks and Mavericks to go ‘over’ the low total in this NBA matchup.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Bucks/Mavericks UNDER 186.5

Milwaukee has really struggled to score the ball on the road where it is averaging just 91.1 ppg. Its road struggles should continue tonight against a Dallas squad that is only allowing 91.6 ppg at home. The Under is 16-7-1 in the Mavericks' last 24 home games. It is also 12-4 in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Considering the Bucks have had 2 days to rest their legs and prepare for this one, I expect a strong defensive effort from them as well. The Under is 6-1 in the Bucks' last 7 games when playing on 2 days rest. Bet the Under.

Ray Monohan

Dallas Stars vs. San Jose Sharks
Play: San Jose Sharks

A nice Pacific division battle on tap tonight in San Jose as two teams vying for the top spot in the division lock horns on the ice. This game is also the 2nd of 6 matchups, and they play again Thursday in Big D. Dallas enters tied with Anaheim for first place in the Pacific, plus they've won the only game these 2 teams have played vs. each other this year, a 5-4 OT win on November 18th. San Jose comes into this game 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home. I'm not a fan of Andrew Raycroft in net for Dallas, and he's expected to be in the pipes tonight. Last game out in Phoenix Raycroft gave up all five goals and was lifted in favor of rookie Richard Bachman for the last 9:35 of the game. Both teams come into this game going in different directions. The Sharks have won 3 of 4, scoring 15 goals over that span, also last time out for San Jose, they were a 2-1 winner as they battled the Stanley Cup Champion Blackhawks at home. The Stars have lost 3 of 4. The Sharks head back out for three more away from HP Pavilion after Monday night so they'll want to impress at home before they leave. I know the price is a little steep, but with revenge on their minds and a far more affordable line than the last time they met I'm on the home team with confidence as they continue their run of good form.

SPORTS WAGERS

HOUSTON +3 +1.00 over Baltimore

It seems like many, many moons ago that folks were talking big things for the Texans after they opened the season 2-0 with one of those wins being an opening day victory over the then assumed powerful Colts. Things have really gone downhill sine then, as the Texans won just three more games since that week two celebration. Fact is, Houston defense is terrible. They can’t stop anyone and they almost always allow 30 points or more. For the Texans to win they usually have to score 31 or more and that’s a tall order. Having said that, the 8-4 Ravens are one of the most overvalued teams in the NFL. Of the Ravens eight wins only two have come against teams above .500. One of those victories occurred in week 4 when they beat the Roethlisberger-suspended Steelers by three points and the other one occurred at home against Tampa just two weeks ago by a TD. The Ravens last five victories have come against Tampa Bay, Carolina, Miami, Buffalo and Denver. Baltimore is also coming off a bruising loss to the Steelers and now they’ll have to play a team that can put a lot of pressure on them with an offense that’s capable of racking up a lot of yards. Also note that the Texans rarely get to host a Monday Night game and that this is more than a football game for that city; it’s an event. Look for the Texans to stay very close throughout and pull off the small upset. This Ravens have been anything but impressive. Play: Houston +3 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Giants –4 over Minnesota

The Vikes fire its coach and promptly go out and whack the Bills by 24 points. Coincidence? No, not really, as the Bills had played about 10 very intense and close games in a row and finally ran out of gas. What’s more interesting is that the Vikes were down 7-0 in that game when Brett Favre got wounded and had to leave the game. So, perhaps that Vikes explosion occurred in response to playing behind another QB, as the whole team, city and world has had it with Favre’s dramatics. The only person rooting for this guy these days is his children. Favre is considered a “game-time decision,” but we all know that’s a moot point, as we’ve seen that storyline plenty of times before and he always plays. That works against the Vikes not for them because Favre, assuming he lasts, will get picked off and he will get sacked. He virtually has no shot at success in this game against a relentless pass-rushing Giants team. You all might remember what a hungry Giants pass rush did to Jay Cutler a few weeks back on a Monday night game. They sacked him eight times in the first half and cruised to an easy win. The G-Men had a rough spell for about three weeks before getting back on track last week with a 31-7 throttling of the Skins. Thus, in a game in a city that hates the Vikings and Brett Favre, look for the superior Giants to pin their ears back and ruin consecutive start #298. Big underlay. Play: N.Y. Giants –4 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

DETROIT -½ -1.06 over Los Angeles

The Kings were everybody’s sexy pick this season to go deep into the playoffs and make some serious noise. That prediction and optimism sure looked good early on but things have dramatically changed since then. Something is wrong in L.A. and whether it’s the players, coaches or lack of confidence is unknown but there’s no denying that something just ain’t right. The Kings have won three of its last four games but those three wins were all at home and they were by the slimmest of margins against Florida, Detroit (in OT) and Calgary. That win over the Red Wings was Detroit’s final game of a Anaheim-San Jose-Los Angeles three-game trip. The Kings lost on Saturday night to the Wild at home in a game in which goaltender Jonathan Quick made two huge errors personally gave away not one but two goals. The Kings scratch and claw for every goal they score these days and frankly, they’re not outplaying or outworking anyone. The Red Wings are a super power that’s very unlikely to lose to the same ordinary team twice within nine days. The Red Wings have a big edge in net, a big edge up front and it’s also worth noting that they’ve lost just three times at home all year. Play: Detroit -½ -1.06 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

Atlanta +1.03 over OTTAWA

Frankly, we have no interest whatsoever in the Senators as the chalk and neither should you. When they face a superior team like the one they’ll see here, its chances of winning are far less than the opposition’s. Ottawa has just three wins over its last 10 games and two of those wins came against two bottom feeders, the Devils and Leafs. The Sens are tentative and they’re fragile with a lot of pressure on them to perform well. In addition, they cannot score goals and in fact, they’ve been held to two goals or less in 11 of its last 16 games. That’s an incredible number and one that does not shout, “bet the favorite”. The Thrashers are having the time of their lives. This team is winning, they’re getting tremendous goaltending from Andrej Pavelec and they have an offense that ranks among the league leaders. Atlanta works hard and they roll out four dangerous lines that all can score. In fact, its fourth line is hands down the best in the league. That gives the Thrashers a big edge in that all four lines can get equal time and in turn gives them fresh legs throughout. Play: Atlanta +1.03 (Risking 2 units).

Tony George

NY Giants -4

No Favre for the Vikes and if so, even better. This game in Detroit as you all know the Metro Dome crashed in yesterday, and a MUST WIN for the Giants to remain in playoff contention, a NO BRAINER here as NY shuts down the run and forces either an injured Favre or QB Jackson to face a very aggressive defense who gets after it. Bear in mind two things here against Minny, no hom,e field now and last year the Vikes buried them at seasons end so revenge is a motivating factor as well. QB Manning should have a good day against the Minny secondary who has been lit up by good QBs all year, and I like NY by a TD here. Vlaue in the line here up to -4.5. Giants by a TD or more.

Sean Murphy

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
PICK: Baltimore Ravens -2.5

The Ravens coughed one up last Sunday against Pittsburgh - falling to 2-4-1 ATS over their last seven games. That's a big reason why we're able to lay such a short number with them on Monday night in Houston, and I'll gladly take advantage of the line value.

Baltimore has certainly proven to be a tough customer on the road this season, winning in New York and Pittsburgh, while taking the Patriots and Falcons right down to the wire in heartbreaking losses. It's worth noting that the Ravens are a perfect 3-0 following a loss here in 2010.

The Texans are still mathematically alive in the AFC playoff race, but they're hanging by a thread. They limp into this game having dropped five of their last six overall - and having already failed in two previous primetime appearances, I have little reason to believe they step up against an elite opponent tonight.

The two matchups that are getting the most play leading up to this game are the Ravens offense vs. the Texans secondary and the Texans run game vs. the Ravens defense. I prefer to look at the coaching matchup in this one. I'll put my money on John Harbaugh over Gary Kubiak any day of the week. In fact, I give the entire Ravens coaching staff a significant advantage over the Texans staff - especially with both teams coming off losses. That's an edge that I don't believe is being properly factored into this line.

The last time these two teams met, Baltimore rolled to a 41-13 win here in Houston. That was in 2008, and the Texans were without Matt Schaub and didn't have a running game to speak of. Maybe the Texans have narrowed the talent gap since, but not enough to steal a victory on Monday night. Take Baltimore.