Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Memphis Grizzlies -3
Memphis will be out for blood at home tonight as it looks to bring an 8-game home losing streak to the Blazers to an end. I like their chances, considering how limited Blazers guard Brandon Roy has been due to problems with his knees. The Blazers have really struggled away from home, going just 5-9 SU and 4-7-3 ATS. The Grizz have won 4 of their last 5 at home, with 2 of those wins coming on the Heat and Lakers. The Trail Blazers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Expect Memphis to cash a 5th straight ticket tonight.
Black Widow
1* on Indiana Pacers +8
The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the league this year. At 11-11 on the season, the Pacers are outscoring opponents 99.6 to 97.4 on average. This is a team that has bought into playing defense, and their player development is unmatched in the NBA. Chicago is 14-8 this year but their scoring averages are very similar to Indiana's as they outscore foes 100.0 to 97.4. Asking the Bulls to lay 8 points to Indiana is simply too much to ask, thus we'll side with the underdog and take the value with the Pacers tonight. Indiana is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss. The Pacers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Chicago is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take Indiana and the points.
Jack Jones
Minnesota Vikings +4.5
The New York Giants biggest strength is their pass rush, but that will be offset by the fact that Minnesota is a power-running team behind the best running back in the league in Adrian Peterson. Brett Favre is doubtful tonight for Minnesota, and he really won't be missed if Tarvaris Jackson gets the start. That's because Jackson's mobility will also help offset New York's pass rush. The Vikings have rushed for a combined 347 yards in their last two games, both victories.
Leslie Frazier took over for Brad Childress two weeks ago, and this team has responded in a big way. They beat Washington on the road 17-13 followed by a 38-14 home victory over the Buffalo Bills. Frazier and company may catch the Giants in an ideal letdown spot here considering New York's next game will be a home meeting with the Philadelphia Eagles which will go a long way in determining the division champion. The Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Take the Vikings Monday.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Wisconsin-Green Bay +21
Further motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect Wisconsin-Green Bay to be competitive in this in-state rivalry game. The Phoenix upset Wisconsin last season. While the Badgers will be out for revenge, we can't ignore the fact that they haven't defeated the Phoenix by 21 points since 1999. As a result, the Phoenix are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings overall and 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Wisconsin.
The Over/Under line is also very telling as Wisconsin-GB is 11-3 ATS when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 3 seasons. The Phoenix are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss and 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog. Take the points.
Bobby Maxwell
Baltimore at HOUSTON (+3)
With two NFL games tonight, I've decided to dish out one as my FREE winner. I'll go ahead and grab the points with the Texans tonight at home against the Ravens.
With the other Monday night contest, I'm making it my 400-Unit NFL winner as the Giants and Vikigns battle from Ford Field in Detroit. I had primetime winners last Monday on the Patriots and on Thursday with the Titans. Tonight will be no different. I've delivered profit 6 of the last 7 days and will improve on that total tonight!
For my comp winner, Baltimore’s 13-10 loss to the Steelers last week is a tough one to get over for the Ravens. They controlled the game with a dominating defensive performance only to have the offense and QB Joe Flacco turn the ball over and hand Pittsburgh the game-winning TD. Now they have to bounce back, on the road, against an offense that has no trouble marching up and down the field. Baltimore might win, but it’s going to be at the end of the game on a last-second kick. I’ll grab the points with the Texans at home.
The Ravens finished with just 269 yards of offense last week and they have scored just 27 total points the last two weeks. Now, we all know Houston’s defense is not its strong suit, but the offense will keep them in the game.
QB Matt Schaub has thrown for 3,088 yards this season and he’s proven he can score against anybody. He’s got star talent at WR in Andre Johnson and RB Arian Foster has emerged as a true talent this season. This team averages 24 points a game this season.
Baltimore is on ATS skids of 1-4 against teams with a losing record and 0-4 as a favorite of up to three points. Houston is on positive ATS runs of 8-3 as a home ‘dog, 5-1 in Week 14 games the last six years and 4-1 at home against teams with winning road records.
Grab the points with Houston at home today.
2♦ HOUSTON
Joel Tyson
Baltimore at HOUSTON
I will go with the over in tonight's Baltimore-Houston game.
Baltimore has played their last pair of games in low-scoring fashion, but both of those game did come at home. The last 2 times the Ravens have hit the road, they have sailed over the total.
As for Houston, they come into this one avergaing over 23 points per game their last 5 times on the field, and they have also allowed 29 points or better in 7 of their last 8 games.
It may take a while to get the points cranking, but I do like the over on tonight's Ravens-Texans battle.
3♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
N.Y. Giants vs. Minnesota (+4) - at Detroit, MI
I am taking the points with the Vikings in their "home" game against the Giants.
The New York Giants would love to get revenge tonight, as they were walloped 44-7 last year at Minnesota.
New York is looking to keep pace with the Eagles who picked up the win last night, but the pointspread is starting to get a little large.
The Giants have been a little more travel displaced than the Vikings in this spot, as Minnesota does at least play once a year at Ford Field, and are at least familiar with the Motor City surroundings.
Minnesota has gained some positive momentum with Leslie Frazier taking over as head coach, as Minny has responded with wins and covers in their first two games under Frazier's watch.
Brett Favre was knocked out of last week's game against Buffalo, but the Vikes hardly missed a beat in their 38-14 smackdown of Buffalo.
The Vikings are still a dangerous team regardless of who is under center, and I think they will be dangerous again tonight.
With faint postseason hopes at 5-7, and both Chicago and Green Bay losing yesterday look for Minnesota to circle the wagons, and compete hard tonight.
Take the points.
1♦ MINNESOTA
Michael Cannon
NY Giants (-4') vs. Minnesota, at Detroit, MI
Take the Giants minus the points tonight in their “road” game over the Vikings.
The Giants now have a huge advantage with this game being shifted to Detroit. They don’t have to put up with any crowd noise because you’re not going to see any Minnesota fans traveling to see a team playing out the string.
As a result the Giants can pretty much gameplan like it’s a home game, and that’s to their advantage.
Minnesota interim head coach Leslie Frazier is 2-0 since taking over for the fired Brad Childress, but those two wins were against the Redskins and Bills.
The Giants are a little bit better than those two.
Eli Manning is 19-7-1 ATS in his career versus an opponents off a SUATS win.
Lay the points with the Giants for the pseudo road win.
3♦ NY GIANTS
Scott Delaney
New Orleans at MIAMI (-11)
Has anyone noticed a flaw in Miami's scheme lately?
The Heat have won eight straight games by double digits, and I don't see them slowing down, now that they're back home and can make a statement against a Western Conference contender.
The Hornets looked good early on this season, rolling to an 11-1 start, including a win over the Heat. They're now on a 3-8 slide and Miami will be looking for revenge.
During Miami's streak, it has held the opposition to 17.5 assists and 84.5 points per game - 10.0 fewer than it had given up during a mediocre start to the campaign with all the new faces in place. That could spell trouble for a Hornets team that's averaged 89.4 points during their 11-game skid.
The victories during this eight-game run have come by an average margin of 17.8 points per game.
The momentum will feed perfectly against New Orleans, which turned in its worst offensive performance of the season yesterday at Philadelphia where the Sixers dominated in an 88-70 win.
1♦ MIAMI
Stephen Nover
Milwaukee (+8') at DALLAS
For Monday's comp play, I'm taking the Milwaukee Bucks as a road dog to at Dallas.
Fresh off a 3-1 homestand that featured wins against Orlando, Indiana and Houston, the Bucks are playing with confidence. Plus, they have center Andrew Bogut back healthy, which is huge, as he is the key to their success.
Dallas is playing the best basketball in the NBA right now. The Mavericks have won 12 in a row. However, they're 3-5-1 ATS the past nine times they've laid 6 1/2 or more points.
This also is a flat spot for the Mavericks. Dallas defeated Utah, 103-97, at home this past Saturday and hosts Portland on Wednesday followed by Phoenix on Friday. The Bucks are the lone non-conference foe for the Mavs during this stretch. The Bucks will be rested having last played on Friday.
Milwaukee has a history of playing Dallas tough. The Bucks are on a 14-3 ATS series run and nearly beat them on the road last season losing by one point.
Under Scott Skiles the Bucks play strong defense and are tough on the road. They rank sixth defensively this season. Dallas is fifth. This figures to be a low-scoring matchup so taking this many points is valuable.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
Derek Mancini
Milwaukee at DALLAS (-8')
Tempting to play the Bucks, based on their recent play, but don't be fooled. They've won 3 of their L4 SU (2-1-1 ATS), but all those wins came over a 4-game home stretch. Get Milwaukee on the road, and you'll see a completely different side of this team. Bucks are just 2-8 away (5-5 ATS), including 0-5 SUATS in their L5 roadies. That slide includes blowout losses to the 76ers and the Pistons... And you're telling me the Mavericks can't cover here?!
Mavs continue to rack up the wins, now 12 in a row, and got back to rewarding their backers over their L2 games. That includes an impressive win over a Jazz team a lot of people thought would cover Saturday. Dallas is in the midst of a solid homestand, without anything to look ahead to. In other words, there's no reason to think we'll see a letdown tonight, especially since the Bucks just recently beat the Magic (and have won 3 of 4). Mavs will give them their un-divided attention.
Also, consider the Mavs depth at the center position with Chandler/Haywood, Bogut is going to have a fresh, athletic center guarding him all night long. Kidd continues to defy his age, and with Terry, Marion, and Barea (plus Haywood) coming off the bench, the Mavs enjoy a huge edge in depth. Once Bucks go to their bench, this game gets blown wide open. Lay it with Dallas over Milwaukee Monday.
2♦ DALLAS
Chuck O'Brien
Golden State at UTAH (-11)
For Monday’s complimentary selection in the NBA, take Utah as a home favorite over the freefalling Warriors.
Golden State has dropped six in a row, 11 of 12 and 13 of 15. The Warriors’ only victories over this stretch? They came against the TWolves and Pistons, two squads that are already about 100 games under .500. During this 15-game span, Golden State is just 4-11-1 ATS, and things have been getting worse, not better, as evidenced by the Warriors’ performance in their last two games: 111-94 loss at San Antonio on Wednesday and 106-84 home loss to the Heat.
If that’s not enough, Golden State’s best player (second-year shooting guard Stephen Curry) missed the Miami game with an ankle injury and almost certainly won’t play tonight. Without Curry, I don’t see how the Warriors can keep pace with the Jazz, who have lost three of their last five games, but all against the two hottest teams in the league (two losses to Dallas, one to Miami). Take away those three setbacks and a 94-82 loss to the Spurs (who have the league’s best record) and the Jazz have won 11 in a row and 15 of 16, including eight double-digit wins. In fact, 12 of Utah’s 17 victories have been by nine points or more.
The Warriors did catch Utah napping five weeks ago (winning 85-78 at home), but that might as well have been five years ago. Besides, the Jazz are still 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings and 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes in Salt Lake City. Additionally, Utah is on pointspread upticks of 5-2 when favored by 11 points or more (all at home), 29-14 on Monday, 25-11 after a non-cover and 4-0 against losing teams.
4♦ UTAH
Craig Davis
Cal Poly SLO at SAN DIEGO STATE (-26)
Today's free play is on San Diego State in college hoops.
Don't look now, but Steve Fisher has this team headed in the right direction. The Aztecs are a perfect 10-0 this season and have caught the attention of the voters, moving all the way up to #14 in last week's poll.
The Aztecs aren't the strongest starting team, often times struggling in the first 10 minutes, but Fisher can't be too disappointed how his team finishes. In its last game, San Diego State trailed by seven late in the first half, but outscored their rivals, 43-21, over the final 20 minutes to secure a 77-49 win.
The Aztecs have outscored opponents by 13 or more points in the second half in each of the last three games, averaging 46 points, and seven times overall to keep their win streak alive and well. In fact, this is the longest win streak for the program since 1955-56 when they won a school-record 13 straight games.
Tonight they won't be tested at all, and I'm expecting a 30-point win or larger. Cal Poly has averaged just 55.6 points since a season-opening victory at Seattle and have dropped four straight road games. Make it five after tonight as they stand absolutely no chance.
San Diego State leads the series 34-16, but is facing Cal Poly for the first time since a 90-71 home victory in December of 2003. The Aztecs have won 10 in a row at home over their former conference rivals and 22 of 26 all-time in San Diego, telling me all I need to know. Aztecs roll as your free play of the day.
3♦ SAN DIEGO STATE
Chris Jordan
Florida Atlantic (+4) at SIENA
Now, in college basketball, the wrong team is favored in this game, as Florida Atlantic will dominate the struggling Saints tonight, yes, even on their own court.
Check it, Siena suffered more graduation losses than any squad in the league, including the loss of 2009-10 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Player of the Year Alex Franklin and national assist leader Ronald Moore.
Throw in the fact coach Fran McCaffrey bolted for Iowa, and it should come as no surprise the Saints have started the season 2-6, and are losing ball games by an average margin of 9.3 points.
The non-conference schedule hasn't exactly been that impressive, either, and the only wins have come across Northeastern and Rider.
I like my chances with FAU, which has played common postseason visitors such as UW Milwaukee, Florida, George Mason and Mississippi State.
And make note, the Owls beat UWM, 85-76, and Mississippi State, 61-59.
This time is growing and maturing together. It was senior-less and green last season. It's seasoned and mature this year.
Take the points with this underdog.
1♦ FLORIDA ATLANTIC