LT Profits
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Philadelphia Flyers @ Boston Bruins
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The Philadelphia Flyers and Boston Bruins have gone Over in each of their last four head to head meetings with all of those games producing either six or seven goals combined, and we look for a carbon copy here tonight with a posted total of 5.5.
The Bruins are averaging 2.78 goals per game at home this season, and while that figure is quite respectable, they have been a scoring machine in TD Banknorth Garden. In their last four games in this building, Boston has won by scores of 5-2, 7-2, 4-3 and 4-1.
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The Bruins will now get to tee off on a backup goaltender, as starter Philadelphia starter Ray Emery had abdominal surgery on Wednesday that will keep him out for quite a while. That is bad news for the Flyers, as backup Brian Boucher is 1-5 in his last six starts.
Now granted, the Flyers have struggled offensively lately, but their poor defense and shaky goaltending still makes the Over look solid here. Philadelphia is allowing 2.85 goals per game on the road over the entire season, and that average has ballooned to 3.80 goals in their last five games, which is expected giving the Emery injury.
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We do not expect any quick remedies for the Flyers net-keeping here, and we feel that this Over has decent value with the plus odds attached to it.
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Pick: Flyers/Bruins Over 5.5
Jr Tips
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OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER at DENVER NUGGETS
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Oklahoma City travels to Denver after losing last night to the Cleveland Cavaliers to play against the Nuggets. The Thunder will be playing back to back games as they were dominated by the Cavs defense in the second half held to only 36 points while LeBron James dropped a season high 44 points. Now they will play another Top echelon team in the league as they have had trouble with teams over .500 teams losing to the Lakers, Magic, Rockets, and Celtics in their last 10 games. The Thunder are allowing 95 pints a game and averaging 98 points a game on offense and face a Denver Nugget team giving up 101.6 ppg on defense and scoring 108 ppg on offense.The Nuggets are ranked #1 on offense with a shooting percentage of 47.3 % and 37.2% from three point range. The Nuggets are 10-1 at home this season averaging 116.1 scoring and holding teams to 102.9 points on their home court. The Thunder will suffer a from playing last night and having to travel to Denver in the high altitude. After Labron James and the Cavs wore them down in the second half, they will have even more problems with this potent Denver offense starting with Carmelo Anthony who leads the league in scoring. The Over is 9-1 the last 10 times these two teams face each and look for the Thunder defense to suffer from fatigue tonight against this Nugget team that likes to run teams out the building on their home court.
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PICK: TAKE OVER 207
Stan Lisowski
Denver Nuggets
Nuggets are 10-1 at home this season, covering 7 of those games. They are a 60% spread prop at home off of a win. In their last 4 home meetings with the Thunder, they have beaten them by an average of 23 points.
Glenn McGrew
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Celtics at Grizzlies
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Boston has finally gotten its act together defensively after a shaky first month of the season, tops in points allowed now. They’ve also been sensational on the road at 11-1. Memphis is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, allowing over 104 ppg. Boston is on a 6-2 ATS run and matches up very well. Play the Celtics.
Tony George
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New Orleans +8
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Not a safe bet laying bigger numbers with Dallas in my humble opinion. The Mavs are totally inconsistent right now. The Hornets have won 3 out of their last 4, and are playing better on offense with Chris Paul back in the lineup. If you look at stats across the board in this one for the season long stuff, you will find everything in Dallas's corner, but I am not buying it. With Paul in the lineup the last 5 games numbers on both offense and defense are very close and the Hornets have won 6 out of the last 7 in this series and always give Dallas Fits.
Hollywood Sports
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New Orleans Hornets at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
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The New Orleans Hornets travel to Dallas today after their disappointing 113-96 loss at home to the Knicks. The Hornets have not handled setbacks like this very well as they have covered only once in their last six games off a double-digit loss at home. Now New Orleans (10-12) goes on the road where they have lacked intensity on the defensive side of the court. They allow their home host to score 107.3 PPG on 51.1% shooting. Dallas (17-7) comes off a 98-97 overtime win against Charlotte on Saturday. While Dallas has won three games in a row, they are underachieving a bit as they have covered only twice in their last eight games. But with the return of Josh Howard to the lineup from his ankle injury, the Mavericks should be ready to raise their level of play. New Orleans faces a tough situation as they have covered only five times in their last twenty-seven games as a road underdog in the 5-10.5 point range. Dallas should dominate the Hornets tonight. Lay the points with the Mavericks.
SPORTS WAGERS
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MEMPHIS +8 over Boston
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With all due respect to the Magic and Cav’s, the Celtics are the class of the East and it might not be close. Defensively, they’re the best in the business in either league. Having said that, you simply cannot sustain such high intensity over the course of an 82-game schedule. The Celtics usually don’t blow out opponents anyway, as its 11-12 record against the number will attest to. Besides that, the Grizzlies are getting better with each passing game. They have a number of good wins this season including a blowout over the Blazers in Portland and yesterday’s absolute destruction of the Heat in Miami. In yesterday’s game they were able to rest some folks in the fourth because they were up by 30. The Grizz have now won four of five to improve its record to 10-13. Also worth noting is that in seven of its 13 losses they had a double-digit lead at some point in the second half and now they’re finishing so much better. This team is feeling it right now and they’ll welcome the opportunity to play the Celtics in their own barn in front of what should be a rare packed house. Definite upset possibility. Let’s put a half unit on the Grizz straight up and 1½-units plus the points. Play: Memphis +8 (Risking 1.6 units to win 1.5 and a ½ unit on Memphis +2.85).
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L.A. CLIPPERS –1½ over Washington
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This one is all about playing against a Wizards squad that is way too flawed to have any confidence in playing them on the road. They take a ton of impossible shots or prayers every game and they seem more like a group of individuals than a team. After winning its season opener on the road in Dallas, the Wizards have just two wins on the road since in nine tries. They’re also coming off a disturbing home loss to the Pacers. If any one of the big three get into foul trouble they’re in big trouble and two of the three usually don’t show up anyway. The Clip Joint play with spirit and a sense of urgency. What they lack in talent they make up for in effort and against this team that should be plenty. That’s not to say that t5he Clip Joint isn’t talented because they are. Eric Gordon, Chris Kamen and Al Thornton are three guys any team would love to have and Marcus Camby can absolutely dominate the boards. The Clippers have dropped two straight at home and this will be its third consecutive home game. However, those two losses were to the Spurs and Magic and they’ll take a huge step down in class when facing this very beatable intruder. Play: L.A. Clippers –1½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
John Ryan
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Golden State Warriors vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers -4.5
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia 76ers as they host the Golden State Warriors set to start at 7:05 EST. AiS shows a 70% probability that the 76ers will win this game by 4 or more points. AiS also reveals an 87% probability that Philadelphia will score 105 to 109 points. Note that the 76ers are a solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they score 105 to 109 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. AiS shows an 84% probability that the 76ers will score more than 105 points. Note that they are 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when they score 105 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. GS is just 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons. Take the 76ers.
Jack Jones
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New Orleans Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Over 198
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I liked this play a little more when it was released at 194, but I still think there is some small value in taking the over at 198. Chris Paul's return to the Hornets has meant a great deal to their offense, as they have scored 96 points or more in each of those games. He's created open shots for his teammates and they are taking advantage.
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The knock on New Orleans this year is that they are giving up way too many points on the road, a big reason they are 2-9 away from home is that they allow 107.3 ppg on 51.1% shooting. You know Dallas is licking their chops at that since they score 102 ppg at home.
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This game should be high scoring and see both teams put up a lot of points, so I'd take the OVER up to 200.
Scott Delaney
Golden State at Philadelphia
The losing streak comes to an end tonight.
Philadelphia will not only beat the Warriors, it'll serve a beatdown reminiscent of those Allen Iverson and the ol' Sixers used to serve up.
Though a five-game homestand for the Sixers has begun with three straight defeats, including a 96-91 loss to Houston on Friday, the Warriors are playing their fifth road game in eight days.
No way that Golden State will be looking forward to this one, after touring through Oklahoma City, New Jersey, Chicago, Detroit and now Philaldelphia.
The Warriors ride a 2-8 skid into this road contest, so I'll have no trouble playing the Sixers here, as they break that 12-game skid.
5♦ SIXERS
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the New Orleans Hornets as they are simply getting too many points from the Mavs. For whatever reason, the Hornets seem to have Dallas' number when they meet, at least recently. New Orleans has won six of the last seven meetings between the two SU and has covered seven of the last 10 ATS.
I realize the Hornets have struggled on the road this year, winning just twice in 11 tries, but with the line currently sitting around 9, I'm not asking the Hornets to win this game SU; they should have no problem coming into Dallas and keeping this close. Chris Paul is still one of the best point guards in the league while David West is quietly having another solid year. They'll play just enough defense to keep the Mavs from "going nuts" in their home building tonight.
Keep in mind that Dallas has much bigger fish to fry in the coming week, going to Oklahoma City Thursday, followed by visits from Houston, Cleveland and Portland. This is definitely a spot where the Mavs are going to be caught looking ahead.
I'm taking New Orleans plus the number to battle Dallas right down to the wire tonight.
2♦ NEW ORLEANS
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
366 - 258 run 59 %
Free Play Mon Celtics -8
8)
Chris Jordan
Arizona at SAN FRANCISCO
Everyone was impressed with the way Arizona moved the ball against Minnesota last week.
I was impressed with the Cardinals stopped the Vikings.
And I already know the 49ers can play a stingy-style defense with Mike Singletary calling the shots.
So when these two get together tonight, you can expect a physical affair that will stay much lower than expected.
Though the Cardinals have gone over the posted total in 14 of 17 December games and 37 of 53 games against teams with losing records, the Red Birds stroll into this NFC West clash on "under" streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 on the road and 4-0 when installed as the road favorite.
On the flipside, the 49ers are on "under" runs of 5-1 in December, 9-3 as a the home pup and 5-0 in intradivision games.
The last five Monday Night Football contests have stayed under the total, so I'm going to bank on these two to make it six in a row.
4♦ NINERS/CARDINALS UNDER
Drew Gordon
Golden State +4 at PHILADELPHIA
21-11-1 roll L33 Free Plays! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Warriors/76ers match up.
Its funny how bettors react to seeing the struggling 76ers as a favorite. Despite losing 12 straight games, and playing piss-poor basketball along the way, the public seems to think this is the spot where the bleeding stops... If only betting NBA games was that easy! Sorry 76ers-backers, but your team will disappoint once again, and here's why:
First, while neither team is particularly good, the 76ers are playing FAR worse basketball right now. True, the Warriors defense is bad, but over their last five games they're only allowing 3 more points than Philly (103 to 100), while also allowing the same exact field goal percentage (46%), so don't tell me Golden State's defense is THAT much worse!
On the offensive side, there's no question the Warriors have a HUGE edge in this contest, with the 76ers averaging only 91 ppg at home this season! The Warriors on the other hand, average 12 more ppg ON THE ROAD (103 to 91), and that's the biggest difference. Philly has shown little-to-no consistency on the offensive end, and the addition of Allen Iverson only makes it worse. His presence shortens minutes for everybody else, as true role players (every team needs them) have lost their spots in the rotation. The 76ers bench play has been disgusting of late, and it'll cost them again tonight.
Bottom line, while neither team will sniff the playoffs this season, how many times does Iverson have to destroy a team's chemistry before GMs around the league realize? In fact, there's no doubt in my mind he was brought back to sell tickets and nothing else. In the end, this 76ers squad is a disaster, from bad coaching, to selfish play, to a bench as deep as a puddle... Warriors grab the cash Monday!
Take Golden State plus the points over Philadelphia in this NBA match up.
3♦ GOLDEN STATE
Michael Cannon
New Orleans at DALLAS -9
Take the Mavericks as the big home chalk over the Hornets.
I have to admit I’m disappointed in New Orleans this season. I really thought this team would compete much better than it has.
The Mavericks have been much better. They have the experience and apparently the will to make a run this year. You can also bet that the Mavs are eager for revenge here, after falling to the Hornets 114-107 at home early last month.
In that game Chris Paul outplayed Jason Kidd and made the Dallas veteran look very, very old.
Now Paul is working his way back into shape and Kidd will have a chip on his shoulder after that last meeting.
The Hornets are just 9-24 ATS in their last 33 as a road underdog and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games overall.
Take the Mavericks as they grab the home win and cover.
3♦ DALLAS