Stephen Nover
Minnesota at UTAH -13
The Jazz are off a highly-satisfying 102-94 home win on Saturday night against the Lakers.
In their last four games, the Jazz have hosted San Antonio, lost at the Lakers by 24 points, beat Orlando at home and then got their revenge Saturday against the Lakers.
This points to a natural letdown situation for Utah against Minnesota.
The Timberwolves showed they could match up to the Jazz beating them as 7 1/2-point home underdogs nine days atop, 108-101.
Kevin Love is back in the lineup for Minnesota giving the Timberwolves an important inside presence to go with Al Jefferson. When Love was out, Jefferson averaged 15.6 points, 7.7 rebounds and shot 44.6 percent from the floor.
In the six games since Love has returned to the lineup, Jefferson is averaging 19 points, 12.7 rebounds and is shooting 51 percent from the field. Jefferson has had a double-double in each game Love has been back.
The Timberwolves can't compete in the backcourt against Deron Williams, but their frontcourt can provide enough scoring for them to cover this number against what should be a flat Utah squad.
3♦ TIMBERWOLVES
Dominic Fazzini
Oklahoma City +10' at DENVER
I failed to land a winner with my complimentary selection Sunday, backing the Saints against Atlanta. But I'm still 40-25 over the past 65 days, with a 23-12 run, and I've got a good-looking play going today!
Oklahoma City has some of the best young talent in the NBA, and it's starting to grow up quickly this season. The Thunder is an impressive 6-4 straight up and ATS this season, and has been competitive with some of the league's big boys in jumping out to a 12-10 record.
Kevin Durant is turning into a true star, averaging 28.3 ppg, and he has been getting strong support from forward Jeff Green (15 ppg) and point guard Russell Westbrook (16.1 ppg, 6.8 apg).
The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against Denver, each time coming in as the underdog.
The Nuggets are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in their last three games, but they have been strong at home this season. That said, even with Oklahoma City having just played at home Sunday, losing 102-89 to Cleveland, I think the team should have more than enough to test Denver tonight. Take the Thunder to cover the points.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Lenny Del Genio
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SF / ARI Over 45
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Over their last ten games, the Cardinals have been a streaky team when it comes to playing totals. They started by uncharcteristically going Under in four straight games, then went Over three straight times and come into this game on a 3-0 Under run. As the coach of Arizona, Ken Wisenhunt is 13-5 Over when coming off an Under. The Cards are also 8-2 Over when coming off a SU dog win. They are 23-10 Over after having won 4 or 5 of their previous six games. San Fran is due for an Over as well after going Under BB games and is 37-21 Over after having lost two of their previous three games. Take Over.
Matt Fargo
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Minnesota at Utah
Play: Minnesota
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Minnesota is coming off a 20-point loss at Sacramento on Saturday which snapped a run of seven straight covers for the Timberwolves. That included four straight spread winners on the road and despite being 1-11 on the road overall, they have covered seven of those dozen games. One of Minnesota’s three wins this season came against Utah at home so the Jazz will certainly be out for some revenge but it will not be that easy. Some teams do present matchup problems in the NBA still which are becoming rarer but Minnesota is one of those teams for Utah. In the last five meetings, only one game resulted in a Utah blowout as the other four meetings have been decided by seven points or fewer with Minnesota taking two of those games outright. With the Timberwolves close to full strength, the matchup will be even more difficult this time around. I was on Utah Saturday night against the Lakers and that resulted in an easy win. While the play was on the Jazz, it was more of a play against Los Angeles based on the situation it was in. even tough this is a revenge spot, coming off back-to-back home wins against the Magic and the Lakers presents a letdown here and even more so with a five-game roadtrip out east coming up starting in two days. Minnesota falls into a terrific situation as well. Play on road underdogs of 10 or more points that have a winning percentage of .250 or worse on the season in December games. This situation is 38-10 ATS (79.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Utah is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite of 11 or more points and it is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games following a win.