Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 16

R.J. Robbins

Illinois St vs. Oakland
Play: Illinois St +3½

Oakland enters this game with a 2-9 SU & 1-9 ATS. They will be in their first role as a favorite this season. Illinois St is 5-4 SU however are both 2-1 SU & ATS on the road. After an opening game blow lose at Va. Comm they won their other road games at N'Western and at San Francisco. We will take the better team plus the points. Illinois St +3.5

Jim Feist

Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets
Pick: Brooklyn Nets

There were lots of high expectations this season for the Brooklyn Nets. Unfortunately those have materialized as the club sits at 8-15 on the season. However, there has been some hope lately as the club has won three of its last four games and covered four straight. The Nets won three straight over Milwaukee, Boston and the Clippers. Before that, the Nets hadn't even won two games in a row. As for Philly, well lets just say there wasn't the same level of enthusiasm in the City of Brotherly Love that the Nets had. Philly has been horrible too. After starting the season 3-0 they have now gone 4-18 since. And lately, the Sixers have lost six straight games and 14 of the last 16. They have also covered just one time in the last 10 games. The Nets also get two days off to rest so they should be ready to go for this one. Philly will also be missing a big scorer in this game as guard Michael Carter-Williams is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Doesn't bother me at all laying the 10 1/2 in this contest as Brooklyn should easily cover this contest.

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DETROIT (-6) 31 Baltimore 20FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Ravens are fortunate to currently stand as the 6th seed in the AFC wildcard race after a 29-26 home win against the Vikings with a Joe Flacco TD pass with 4 seconds on the clock after an 80 yard TD drive that took only 41 seconds. It was a crazy game that was an emotional rollercoaster for the Ravens as they had to come back to take the lead three times in the final 2:05. They were outplayed from the line of scrimmage in this one as they produced 325 yards at 4.2 yppl to 379 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Vikings who were without Adrian Peterson after he injured his foot in the second quarter. The Ravens have now won four of their last five but bring an offense to the table that has not been good this year, particularly in the run game (averaging 83 yards at 3.0 ypr against teams that allow 114 yards at 4.3 ypr on average). They will be matched up against a Lions defense that has defended the run well with a strong defensive line that will be chomping at the bit to redeem themselves after a nightmarish performance in the snow last week where they allowed the Eagles to rush for 301 yards at 6.8 ypr. Meanwhile, the Lions offense has been very good in averaging 411 total yards per game at 6.0 yppl against teams that allow 365 yards at 5.6 yppl and should have an advantage against a Ravens pass defense that has been slightly better than average. Ford Field will be rocking for this Monday night contest with the Lions in control of their playoff destiny and in need of a win to maintain their position in the NFC North. Detroit has played well at home this year (4-2 SU, 3-3ATS) while the Ravens are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road. My model favors the Lions in this contest (-11.5) and with some good match-ups on their side I like the Lions minus the points.

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Ravens (7-6) at Lions (7-6)FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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These two are polar opposites, with the Ravens poised and methodical and the Lions anything but. However, when you consider Baltimore’s road play this year (just one win) and that Detroit will be back indoors after trudging through the snow a week ago, the Leos get the nod. Baltimore hasn’t played a winning team in a month and they arrive here after playing two at home after dropping its last three away. It will also aid Detroit to have RB Reggie Bush back in the lineup as the nifty back has missed a couple of games with a muscle pull. Baltimore does not have the offensive personnel to trade punches here. TAKING: LIONS –6

Rob Vinciletti

Orlando Magic vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -7

The Bulls were bad in their last game getting blown out by 22 to the Toronto Raptors. The Bulls are 4-0 with 3 spread wins at home off a home spread loss by 21 or more points. Orlando played last night in OKC and we have a nice system that is in play for this game that plays against road dogs with no rest that were road dogs of 5 or more last night and are taking on an opponent that lost to the spread by 21 or more points as a home favorite in their last game and scored 90 or less. These road dogs are 0-11 straight up and 2-9 to the spread. The Magic have lost and failed to cover 8 of 12 vs losing teams. Look for the Bulls to take this one.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Brandon Shively

Baltimore at Detroit
Play: Under 50.5

The Ravens come into tonight's game on a 3 game winning streak, but these were wins all at home. As a matter of fact, the Ravens are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road. When I look at this game, I look at Detroit's strength which is their front 7 and the run defense that is only giving up 66 yards a game. Baltimore has struggled on the ground all year long as they are only rushing for 3 yards per carry and 87 yards per game. The 3 yards per carry is ranked dead last in the NFL while the Lions run defense is ranked 6th in the NFL. So how will Baltimore score if they can't run? I feel they will have trouble tonight for sure and this total of 50 is looking to be an inflated line and one where we will be going UNDER the TOTAL. This total of 50 will be the Ravens highest this year. We saw a total of 48.5 when they played Green Bay and that game went UNDER by 12 points. The season opener vs. the Broncos did sail OVER the Total but that was when Peyton Manning threw for 6 touchdowns. Looking closer, the Ravens are only averaging 21 ppg on the road, and I feel this Lions defense will be the toughest they have faced all year long, personally. Both quarterbacks tend to throw a lot of interceptions as well. Flacco has a 9TD/ 8 INT his last 5 games, while Stafford has a 11TD/ 8 INT mark his last 5 games. I expect this to be a big chess match football game with a lot of punts and not many touchdowns. There is A LOT of money on the OVER tonight, but I am not convinced. The total opened up at 46.5, now has risen 3.5 points to 50. The OVER went 10-4 yesterday in the NFL (71%), and that is just another reason to fade the public in this game as I am looking for the Total's to average out a bit. A trend I like about Detroit that relates to this game is that Detroit is 4-1 UNDER their last 5 after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The UNDER is also 6-0 in their last 6 Monday Night games. For the Ravens, the UNDER is 9-3 in their last 12 games on FieldTurf and I see this game with a final score in the 24-17 range. Take this game UNDER tonight.

Brandon Shively's Featured Package

Jimmy Boyd

Washington Wizards +3

I don't put a lot of stock in the Wizards lack of success at Madison Square Garden. They have dropped 10 straight, but those losses have come against a different Knicks team than they are facing today. New York is 7-16 on the season this year. After an abysmal start to the season many would say New York is turning a corner, but they have still lost three of their last five games. It is New York's complete lack of defense that makes them an easy team to play against. New York is allowing 101.7 points per game at home this season, and they are just 3-9 ATS in those 12 games.

The Wizards have not been given a lot of credit in road games, and they are one game above .500 at 6-5 against the spread because if that. They should score at-will against New York's non-existent defense, and that puts a lot of value on Washington as an underdog in this game. You should play against favorites like New York when they are playing their fifth game in seven days, and they area bad team winning just 25% o 40% of their games playing against another team with a losing record. This system is 62-31 (67%) against the spread.

Jeff Alexander

LA Clippers +3

The Spurs haven't been a good investment lately against good teams, going 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus teams that have a winning record. San Antonio is just 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games versus teams with a win percentage above .600. The Clippers have been far more reliable against top-notch competition, going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a win percentage above .600. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet LA.

Dave Price

Brooklyn Nets -10

The 76ers are really struggling. They've lost six in a row overall and are only 1-10 on the road. Expect their struggles to continue against a fresher Brooklyn team that is starting to click. The Nets have won three of four and should have plenty of energy tonight after two days off. The 76ers are in the midst of a punishing stretch where this will be their seventh game in 11 days. Philly hasn't stood much of a chance without Michael Carter-Williams, who remains sidelined due to a skin infection on his right knee. It is just 1-9 without the rookie point guard. The 76ers haven't been able to get enough easy buckets to compete against teams that take care of the basketball. In fact, they are 0-8 ATS this season versus good ball handling teams like Brooklyn that average 14.0 turnovers or less per game. They have lost to such opponents by 20.5 points on average. Philly is also on a 7-17 ATS skid as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12.0 points. Lay the number.

Steve Janus

Utah Jazz +13

There's no question that Miami is the better team and if they wanted they could win here by 20+ points, but I don't see the Heat being interested at all in this game. Miami will instead by looking ahead to Wednesday's huge showdown against the Pacers on ESPN. The Jazz will certainly come to play against the 2x defending champs and I look for them to hang around and keep this within double-digits. Utah got blown out in their last game at home by the Spurs, but had looked really good in their two previous road games. They won at Sacramento 122-101 and at Denver 103-93. The Heat have been overvalued at home all season, which is why they are 10-2 SU and just 4-8 ATS.

Doug Upstone

Gardner-Webb vs. Duke
Play: Gardner-Webb +25

Gardner-Webb put up valiant efforts at Missouri and Northwestern, losing by 9 and 13, respectively. They held both teams to 72 points. If they can hold Duke to 80 or less tonight, they should cover the 25 points as they should be able to get to 60. The key for the Wolverines Monday night is to limit and minimize the runs Duke always has at home. Play Gardner-Webb plus 25.

Jack Jones

Los Angeles Clippers +3

Since Doc Rivers called out his team for 'pouting' following an 82-88 loss at Cleveland on December 7, the Los Angeles Clippers have really responded. They have won three of their last four games which all came on the road, including two by double-digits.

Now, the Clippers return home where they are 8-2 on the season and outscoring the opposition by an average of 9.1 points per game. They want to prove that they belong among the Western Conference's elite, and the only way to do that is to defeat the defending West champion Spurs.

Rarely will you ever get a chance to back Los Angeles as a home underdog, and I'm going to take advantage of it today. I realize that San Antonio is one of the better teams in the league, but it is being way overvalued here as a road favorite.

Plays against road favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record are 78-43 (64.5%) ATS since 1996.

The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. They have simply taken advantage of a soft schedule this season. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Los Angeles Monday.

Ray Monohan

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -6

Both the Hawks and Lakers have been yo-yoing all season long. Kobe Bryant is back with the Lakers but they are only 1-3 SU with him and he is clearly not his self. Monday night they are on the road against a Hawks team that wins most of the time at home and really enjoys hosting the Western Conference (5-2 ATS in their last 7). They also respond well after a loss with an 8-3 ATS record after a loss this year. They are far from filled with superstars but against a Lakers team still searching for an identity they should come away with a near double-digit victory.

Steve Rich

Baltimore vs. Detroit
Play: Over 49

It’s Monday Night Football again. This will be the next to last game on Monday night this season, so enjoy while you can. The Baltimore Ravens visit the Detroit Lions in the dome at Ford Field. This should be a welcome change for both teams that played in the snow last week. The Lions are a six point favorite in this one and the total is forty nine. Both teams come into this match with identical seven and six records. The Ravens are chasing the last wild card spot in the AFC while the Lions are tied for the top spot in the NFC North. This is an important game, isn’t December football great?

The Ravens are just one and five on the road, and while their defense isn’t what we remember from years past it is only surrendering 20 points per game. It’s the Baltimore offense that has struggled this season with Ray Rice not finding any holes to run through. While I don’t think he will find any against this front seven this Lions secondary may be just what head coach Harbaugh and quarterback Flacco need.

Well speaking of the Lions secondary they are ranked 26th in the league. The Lions are 4 and 2 at home this year and like the Ravens their running attack just isn’t getting it done this year. Detroit’s passing attack is a whole other animal as they average just under 300 yards per game. Calvin Johnson is certainly one of the best receivers in the league and a favorite target of QB Matthew Stafford. Add the fact Ravens rookie FS called Johnson old this week, Megatron may have a nice night against this Ravens secondary.

With this game so important to both teams it should be a good one. I really think both teams abandon the run for the most part early in this one and let their QB’s have it out. I don’t trust the Lions to cover six points here, they just have a hard time getting out of their own way. Penalties and turnovers have hurt them. The Ravens do play a lot of close games, but I think Joe Flacco keeps the Ravens offense improving. Remember last year when they came on hot at the end and all the way to the Super Bowl win. I am leaning towards over the total of 49.