Andre Gomes
Pistons / Pacers Under 193
The Pistons wasted last night a great chance to upset one of the best teams in the league but they choked down the stretch and eventually they lost @OT against Portland.
POR' tired legs was quite evident as they couldn't hit their outside shots, they ended the game w/ 7-26 3pts so the Pistons were able to build a nice lead, because their edge on the post was tremendous (as expected!). DET scored 68 points in the paint while 65% of their shots were from less than 9feet! With Josh Smith having a huge game on the post, the Pistons finished the game w/ nice 12-21 FG, 1.12 PPP in post up plays. Unfortunately, their key players logged major minutes:
Greg Monroe, 39
Josh Smith, 46
Andre Drummond, 44
Brandon Jennings, 45
Is not going to be easy for DET to have a decent game @IND tonight and tired legs won't be THE major factor.
DET is going from having a pretty favorable matchup for their offense vs. poor interior POR defense to have to face the BEST interior defensive team in the league! We can expect a natural offensive letdown from them because w/ their inside game limited, the Pistons aren't a good jump shooting team.
However, note that the Pistons are ranked #1 post up defense in the league! David West & Roy Hibbert will have to work hard in order to have efficient offensive games. Naturally, the Pacers are going to dominate on the perimeter but they are a bit inconsistent as well. This 193-points line is a bit overrated in my opinion as we should be dealing w/ 190-points line, therefore I'm taking the Under as my Single Dime Play!
Bryan Power
Detroit vs. Indiana
Pick: Indiana
Truth be told, the Pistons have really upset me lately. Friday night, I had them laying 4.5 points at home against Brooklyn and they won by only four. It was a game they led by 18 entering the fourth quarter. Despite PG Chauncey Billups saying that the team would "learn from it," the same thing happened to the team last night (when I had them again!) as this time they blew another double digit lead at home to Portland. The game did go to overtime and thankfully the underdog Pistons still covered, but it's clear that this team does not know how to close out games.
They likely won't have to worry about "closing out" anything tonight in Indiana as they face the league-best Pacers, who are unbeaten (11-0) at home where they're allowing an average of just 83.1 points per game. Already this season Indiana beat the Pistons, by eight points, in Detroit. It was their sixth straight victory in this Central Division rivalry, the previous five all coming by a double digit margin. Look for a similar outcome here as the Pacers are already 13-4 ATS when favored this season while the Pistons are just 3-15 ATS the L18 times they've taken double digits.
DAVE COKIN
CAL RIVERSIDE VS NORTHERN COLORADO
PLAY: NORTHERN COLORADO
Many years ago, I asked Hall of Fame basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian about the toughest road trips his teams had to face. He didn’t have to think about the answer. It was the Saturday/Monday altitude swing through Colorado State and Wyoming. There was just nothing about this trip that was appealing, and even some of those great Rebels squads would often have trouble on the back end of the trip.
UC-Riverside is completing that type of journey tonight. The Highlanders played at Air Force on Saturday and now have to battle Northern Colorado on the road tonight. For a team from SoCal that’s not used to this at all, I’m expecting fatigue to be an aspect that could come to the forefront tonight.
As for the team comparison, Northern Colorado looks like the better outfit. The Bears have faced all softies at home. But they have a road win at Kansas State and respectable losses at Colorado State and New Mexico State. Riverside has hung in for the most part in their games, with the exception of the opening disaster at San Diego State. But they have just two D-1 wins, and getting past Montana State and a horrible Southern Utah squad is nothing special.
Riverside’s offense runs through its two big guys, with Taylor Johns and Chris Patton the key players. Northern Colorado has the more balanced attack, and while the Bears aren’t overly talented, they’re upperclassmen dominant and the sum of their parts is better than the individual components.
The number on this game is about where it figures to be off the power ratings. But I will add 2-3 points based on what I believe are substantial scheduling dynamics. The fact that Riverside is a terrible three-point shooting team could come into play if the Highlanders are in catchup mode late. I see enough here to warrant taking the plunge with Northern Colorado minus the points.
Wunderdog
Washington at New York
Pick: Washington +2.5
Life in the Big Apple was rosy a year ago as the Knicks put it all together and made a credible playoff run. That life under the big microscope is often hard to live by, and the finicky Knicks have gotten off slow and are truly feeling the pressure here. There have been few Garden parties this season, as the Knicks' 4-8 MSG record would be quick to point out. Washington hasn't lived up to the potential either, and have dropped four straight, but the Knicks haven't been on the level of their last three opponents in Atlanta, Denver, and the Los Angeles Clippers, and I think the Wizards respond here as they are 5-0 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss. The Knicks, on one day of rest, are thinking too much as indicated by a poor 1-10 ATS mark in their last 11. Make the play on Washington.
Tony George
Orlando +7
Boy has the absence of Derrick Rose thrown a monkey wrench into the Bulls plans this season, and on offense apparently it has affected them greatly. An NBA team, Chicago, is averaging just 79 ppg their last 5 games, just unreal.
Orlando had a very impressive outing against the Thunder the other night in just a 3 point road loss and while I cannot tell you the Magic are as good team, they surely can muster more than 79 points.
Both teams play decent defense, especially Chicago but it is unwise to lay 7 points in the NBA in most cases in any event, but very unwise to lay 7 points when your offense is totally in the tank against a team who can score 92 ppg their last 5, have been beaten 5 straight times by Chicago, and can step in here against a team whose back is against the wall, confidence shaken, and make a game of it tonight.
Harry Bondi
Baltimore / Detroit Over 48.5
Several weeks ago we told you that non-conference games have gone over the total at an incredible rate this year. It's is now 47-14 to the over in 61 non-conference contests! Combine that with the fact that 5 of the last six times these two teams met the over cashed and that 4 of the last 5 Baltimore has played indoors have gone over and you know why we are riding the trends and going OVER THE TOTAL of 48.5 in tonight's Monday night game.