Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday December, 17

Ben Burns

L.A. Clippers vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit

With all due respect to the Clippers, who are indeed playing well, I feel that this line is a little high.

The Clippers are playing the final leg of a 4-game road trip. Having already come away with victories in each of their first three stops, its entirely possible that they could already have thoughts of the return trip home creeping into their heads.

They're 10-18-2 ATS L30 times that they played their previous ...

three on the road.

Note that two of the Clippers' three wins on the current trip have come by six or fewer points.

In fact, a closer look reveals that only one of the Clippers' last eight road games has resulted in a win of greater than six points. (That happened to be their most recent game.)

Its also worth mentioning that the Clippers are just 3-6 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as road favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range.

True, the Pistons have lost four straight here. However, only one of those losses (the most recent) came by greater than seven points. Before that, the Pistons had won five straight here.

In fact, a closer look shows that only one of the Pistons last 11 games here has resulted in a loss of greater than seven points.

Overall, despite have a sub-500 record, the Pistons, 8-6 ATS the last 14 times that they were home underdogs in the 6.5 to 9 range, are outscoring teams by an average score of 97.7 to 94.8 here.

Last season's lone meeting was decided by just four, the Pistons earning the cover at LA. Consider taking the points.

David Chan

Chicago vs. Memphis
Pick: Chicago

Chicago is 13-9 SU and 8-14 ATS; it's won two in a row, including an 83-82 victory over the Nets as a 4.5 point favorite last time out. The Bulls continue to get the job done with tough defensive play, forcing the Nets into 18 turnovers. Marco Belinelli led the charge with 19 points.

Joakim Noah had 12 points and 10 boards; Marquis Teague finished with eight points.

Note that Chicago is 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games.

Memphis is 15-6 SU and 13-7-1 ATS; after three straight losses, the Grizzlies finally got off the schneid with a 99-86 win at Utah on the 15th as a 2 point underdog.

Zach Randolph had 25 points and grabbed 16 boards; Marc Gasol finished with 16 points, eight boards, two blocks and two steals.

Note though that Memphis is just 2-4 ATS in its last six overall.

The Bulls are playing their best basketball of the young season, getting the job done by committee; I believe they'll surprise the home side tonight, and keep this one much closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; consider a second look at the visitors in this one!

Hollywood Sports

New York at Tennessee
Prediction: Under

New York (6-7) remains alive in the AFC playoff hunt after winning two straight and three of their last four after their 17-10 win at Jacksonville. But the Jets offensive production remains suspect as they generated only 270 yards while quarterback Mark Sanchez completed just 12 of 19 passes for 111 yards. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing records. Tennessee (4-9) has seen the Under go 6-0-1 in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. The Titans have lost three straight games on the road but they return home now after playing three of their last four away from home -- and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games. Tennessee has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. Take the Under in this one.

Jimmy Boyd

Valparaiso -3½

Valparaiso has all five starters back from last year so it's no surprise they are off to a good start this year at 7-3. Why is that so important? Well last year Oakland went down to Valpo and pulled off the two point victory as four point underdogs, so you can bet this team is going to want to get their revenge on Monday night.

They are picking up wins due to solid defense, having given up more than 65 points just one time this season. Their slow pace has put them into a nice system today that says play on teams that score 65 points or less in three straight games that have all five starters back from a year ago. These teams are 63-29 (68.5%) in the role of a favorite over the past five years.

Greg Kampe is the head coach of the Oakland Golden Grizzlies and he is 2-10 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in 3 straight games and 4-12 ATS at home after a game they failed to cover.

Ray Monohan

Los Angeles Clippers -6½

The Clippers have been cruising on their current road trip and in general. They have won 9 in a row and only a couple have been close.

They are on “normal rest” while their opponent - the Pistons - will be playing their third game in 4 night. Neither team is old but the Clippers are the more talented by far, holding an edge at every position save Shooting Guard, maybe.

If they can get out early they will probably blow run them out of the gym. This year’s Clippers are ranked 6th in scoring offense and defense.

They are a tough team to try and come back on.

Rob Vinciletti

Valparaiso -3½

Valpo has home loss revenge in this one and comes in off a nice win at Missouri St in their last game. They have dominated this series winning 17 of 21 against Oakland, including 8 of the last 10 here. They have won all 4 games against teams under .500 and 17 of the last 23 playing with 1 or less day of rest. Oakland has lost all 6 games against winning teams and their 3 wins are against teams that should not even be one ones schedule their so weak. Oakland has also failed to cover the last 4 times playing off 3 road games. Valparaiso is the better team and the line is reasonable here. On Monday we have a big 6* Rare Perfect system Play specific to Monday night games that has Cashed every time in games with low lines like this one.

Dave Cokin

Louisiana Tech at Arkansas Little Rock
Pick: Arkansas Little Rock

Second meeting this season between Louisiana Tech and Arkansas-Little Rock. The Bulldogs won bug in the first battle, and they're the better team. But I'm more inclined to back the avenging team in non-league same season return matches, so I'll side with UALR plus the small spot tonight.

Jim Feist

Kings at Suns
Pick: Over

The Sacramento Kings (7-15 S/U, 8-13 ATS), have lost three straight games after a 10 point setback at Oklahoma City on Friday, 113-103. After a horrible start to the season that saw the Kings cover just one of their first 10 games, they have covered four of the last six. Still, this is a not a good road team. The Kings are just 1-9 S/U on the road and getting outscored by an average of 102-92. What really hurts the Kings here, is that they are in the second game of a back-to-back spot having played at home on Sunday against Denver. The last seven times in this spot, their game has gone OVER six times. In fact, in those six Overs, the Kings have allowed at least 105 points and over 110 in half. The Phoenix Suns (9-15 S/U, 8-15 ATS) haven't been much better. However, there has been some good news for this club as they have won and covered their last two at home against Memphis and Utah. A tired road club here should provide lots of scoring opportunities for the Suns. Take the OVER.

SPORTS WAGERS

TENNESSEE -2 over N.Y. Jets

The Jets have been less scrutinized the past couple of weeks due to a modest two-game win streak. Defeating the Cardinals by a 7-6 count and then the woeful Jaguars is nothing to rest your laurels upon and it’s not like Mark Sanchez was thriving in those two victories. Sanchez has regressed to the point where he did not throw a TD in either contest and only threw for 97 and 111 yards respectively. He's thrown for just two TD's in the past five weeks while remaining safely under 200 yards in all games, when not facing the Patriots.

Jake Locker has been better since his return from injury. Perhaps a stint on the sidelines helped. He has scored in every start this year and his last three efforts all topped 260 passing yards. Titans RB Chris Johnson should have a field day against New York’s 29th ranked run defence. Finally, this is a rare Monday Night home game for Tennessee. They performed well in their only other featured game when they upset the Steelers on a Thursday night. Tennessee has a chance to knock the Jets out of postseason play and it would be completely just if they did so. The Jets are being overvalued due to a pair of cheap wins. The Titans are being undervalued because of their subpar record. Let's take advantage.

Wunderdog

Chicago at Memphis
Pick: Under 179.5

The Chicago Bulls have missed the leadership and scoring of Derrick Rose, but they have compensated on the defensive end of the court. The Bulls have held eight of their last 11 opponents to the 80s or less, including seven of their last nine. Memphis has been the most consistent team on the defensive end of the court all season. They allowed 101 points to the Clippers on opening night, however no team has seen the century mark against them this season since. That includes a pair of overtime games. They have also struggled of late on offense, after nine of 15 scoring 100+, they have failed to reach the century mark in their last six. Memphis is 24-9 to the UNDER in their last 33 following a win, while the Bulls are 25-9 to the UNDER in their last 34. An ugly one in Memphis tonight, play the UNDER.

Steve Janus

San Antonio Spurs +5

Oklahoma City enters tonight's game on an impressive 10-game winning streak, but they are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games, as they continue to be overvalued. If there's one team that can go into Oklahoma City and get a win, it's the Spurs. San Antonio is 11-4 away from home and will be extremely motivated given that they have lost two of their last three.

The Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team with a home winning % of .600 or better and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

SPORTS WAGERS

DETROIT +7½ over L.A. Clippers

The Clippers have won eight in a row. They conclude a four-game road trip tonight and it’s also their fifth straight game against Eastern Conference foes. They return home on Tuesday to play four consecutive games against the West so it would come as no surprise to see them be less focused here. As a result of their current hot streak and outstanding 17-6 record, they’re a little overpriced here in an unfavorable spot. The Clippers have covered just 14 of their past 52 games when covering the previous game on the road and that comes into play here after they beat the Bucks 111-85 on Saturday.

The Pistons have stayed within this range or won outright in seven of their past eight games. They’ve played some strong teams over that span that includes the Nets, Warriors, Bulls, Denver and Philly. The Pistons are holding opponents to just 42.9 percent shooting, good for fourth in the league and that usually puts them in a position to win or stay close. That should come to pass here too.

Bruce Marshall

L.A. Clippers vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit

Bucking the red-hot Clippers (who have won nine in a row) looks to be a tricky proposition at the moment. And the franchise hasn't won this many games in a row since the old Bob McAdoo-Randy Smith Buffalo Braves of 1974-75 won 11 straight!! But it's also getaway night for L.A., which will be returning home after a four-game road swing following tonight's game. Detroit rarely losing touch in its recent defeats, and some encouragment has been provided lately by Gs Brandon Knight (21.5 ppg last six games) and Rodney Stuckey (17.3 ppg in his last seven outings) to give Pistons hope that a win streak is on the horizon. Don't forget that C Greg Monroe scored 23 and grabbed 15 rebounds in this matchup last season vs. the Clips, who were forced to go into OT before prevailing 87-83 in that clash. This one will be close tonight at the Palace, and big points with the Pistons are worth a look.

Jim Kruger

New York Jets +1

The return of Titans’ QB Jake Locker has not turned out positive with Tennessee notching just a 1-3 SU/ATS record with Locker struggling to a 60.8 QB rating. Locker has also thrown seven INT’s in Tennessee’s last three games, all losses. Offensive line injuries have helped curtail the return to form of Tennessee’s ground attack with the Titans failing to break the century mark in rushing the past two games.

The good news for Titan supporters is they are playing a team with just as impotent offense as their own. Both teams rank in the bottom ten in points per game. Amazingly, in today’s brand of playing, the Jets have failed to go over 165 yards passing in four of their last five games. The Titans’ pass defense might be the cure for Jets QB Mark Sanchez’s ills as they rank dead last in the league in passing percentage allowed, 67.8%. They have the 29th ranked defensive QB rating, 97.4.

The Jets are far superior on defense with a top-ten squad compared to Tennessee’s bottom five rated unit. They are still alive to get a playoff slot. While it seems easy to say “bet the Jets”, Tennessee does have two offensive playmakers, Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt, who can break for a long TD. New York has no highly-skilled offensive weapons. The Titans did beat the Steelers on the national stage in a Thursday night game earlier this season. Regardless, the only side I could take would be New York.