Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 19

Rob Vinciletti

TCU vs. USC
Play: TCU +7

TCU has better numbers here tonight. They have won 11 of 15 vs losing teams and 5 of the last 7 vs teams who score less than 65 per game. As a road dog from 6.5 to 9 they have covered 20 of 28. USC is has lost all 5 this season vs teams with a winning record and 1-4 straight up vs Mountain West Conference teams. When installed as a home favorite from -6.5 to -9 they are 2-8 ats. In games after scoring 60 or less they are 1-4 ats. Look for TCU to take the Cash tonight.

David Chan

Detroit @ Edmonton
Pick: Edmonton +1.5

The 20-10-1 Detroit Red Wings fly into Edmonton to take on the 14-15-3 Oilers.

Detroit is just 7-8 on the road.

It's coming off an 8-2 win over the Kings on Saturday night.

Edmonton is 9-5-2 at home.

The Oilers lost 3-2 at San Jose on Saturday.

Nikolai Khabibulin returned in net for Edmonton, and steered away 34 of 37 shots.

Keep your eyes on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins who has 23-points in front of the home town crowd (compared to just nine on the road).

The Oilers have lost six straight in the series, including a 3-0 setback on November 11th.

I expect the home side to risk life and limb getting into passing and shooting lanes, to contest every puck; I'm going to lay what I feel is a very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals; consider a second look at the Oilers on the "puck-line" in this contest!

Sean Murphy

Youngstown State @ Akron
Pick: Youngstown State +10.5

Youngstown State has been awful for years, so it's no surprise that the betting marketplace is slow to react to its strong start here in 2011.

The Penguins are 6-4 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in lined games so far this season. They've proven they can hang on the road, winning three games outright, and posting a 4-2 ATS record.

Keep in mind, when these two teams squared off last season, Akron needed everything it had to pull out a 91-84 overtime victory, right here on its home floor.

The Zips are just 5-5 to start the season, but have admittedly faced a pretty tough schedule. Coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Arkansas Pine-Bluff and Florida A&M, it would be easy for them to overlook Youngstown State on Monday.

While Akron has taken all five meetings between these schools since 2005, it's worth noting that only two of those wins came by double-digits. Look for another tightly-contested game on Monday night. Take Youngstown State.

Bryan Power

Detroit Red Wings @ Edmonton Oilers
PICK: Detroit Red Wings

Two clubs going in very different directions here. While Edmonton has gone 2-7-1 L10 and 5-12-1 L18, the Red Wings are surging. Detroit has picked up a win in three of its last four and 11 of 14. They come off an 8-2 win over the Kings, the second time in a four-game stretch we've seen the Wings scored 7 goals in a game. They are 15-4 off a win this season and have had plenty of success here at Rexall Place through the years, going 5-0-3 last eight visits. They've beaten the Oilers six straight overall, including a 3-0 shutout last month in the Motor City. An 0-3 road trip where they were outscored 10-4 seems to set Edmonton up very poorly here. At least that's what history says as they are 1-18 after playing three straight road games and 0-7 at home off BTB road losses. Detroit also brings in a hot power play, having scored four of the last seven times they've had the man advantage. Big win for the visitors here.

Matt Fargo

Wyoming @ Denver
PICK: Denver -7.5

We won with Denver three games back as it was able to cover against Iona but lost by a bucket in overtime, its only home loss of the season. The Pioneers bounced back with two straight wins, most recently defeating a very good Boise St. team by 17 points at home on Saturday. They now have some momentum heading into Monday in what is a big revenge game after falling Laramie last season by 13 points. Denver was outshot at the free throw line 30-12 which ended up being the difference.

Wyoming has won nine straight games after suffering its first loss of the season at Wisconsin-Green Bay a month ago. The Cowboys have had the luxury of playing eight of those games at home with the one road game coming at Colorado resulting in an upset win. The defense has played a big role in the early success as Wyoming has held opponents to just 50.8 ppg on 36.8 percent shooting including 24.2 percent from long range but that defense will be tested tonight.

Denver is 8-2 to start the season and it is no fluke as the Pioneers return nine players, including four starters from last year's squad that finished third in the Sun Belt Conference West Division. They also welcome back Rob Lewis, who missed last season due to injury, and he was a starter prior to that as well. They have one of the better home court advantages in college hoops as the Pioneers are 5-1 at home, improving their record to 52-12 at Magness Arena under head coach Joe Scott.

Denver also falls into a great contrarian situation as we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a game committing five or less turnovers. This situation is 84-44 ATS (65.6 percent) since 1997. The Pioneers are 6-0 ATS at home over the last two seasons against teams outscoring opponents by four or more ppg while Wyoming is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a road underdog between 7.0 and 12.5 points. Denver gets its revenge tonight.

Jim Feist

Montreal Canadiens vs Boston Bruins
Pick: Under

The Stanley Cup Champion Boston Bruins playing at top performance again this season. The Bruins are tops in the Northeast division with a comfortable lead over second place Buffalo and Toronto. The Bruins have the best goal differential in the NHL at +47. And, it's no wonder considering their defense has allowed just 61 goals on the season, tops in the NHL. The Bruins have won four in a row and eight of their last 10 games. Today they host the Montreal Canadiens. Montreal is dead last in the Northeast Division with 33 points. Montreal has lost two straight and is 3-3-4 in their last 10 games. Montreal isn't too bad a defensive club, 9th in the NHL in goals allowed (2.55). However, Boston is still king and they allow a league-low 1.94 goals per game. I'm taking the UNDER here on Monday as I don't expect Montreal to get much here against the top defensive scoring team in the NHL. Go UNDER on Monday night in this game.

SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +3 over SAN FRANCISCO

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been the most opportunistic team in the NFL for decades and the door has opened once again for them. Without taking the field until tonight, the Steelers clinched a playoff spot on Sunday. Most importantly, the Ravens loss last night gives the Steelers full control of the division. With three straight wins, beginning here, Pittsburgh will secure a first-round bye and home field thereafter. Ben Roethlisberger is expected to start tonight and the decision had nothing to with the Ravens' loss Sunday night in San Diego. The Steelers reached the decision to start Roethlisberger before the Ravens' 34-14 loss to the Chargers. When there’s a QB mismatch in big games, give us the points with the superior pivot and we’ll bite most every time. Alex Smith and the 49ers have scored just 25 TD’s (seventh fewest in the league) and they’ll be facing a Steelers defence that has allowed the fewest points in the NFL. It doesn’t hurt that the Steelers have won four in a row and eight of their past nine. They have also won their past three road games and six in a row on Monday night. Conversely, the 49ers have lost two of their past three games, with both losses coming against teams that pattern their defence after the Steelers -- Baltimore and Arizona. Play: Pittsburgh +3 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

Anaheim +136 over DALLAS

It’s hard to believe that a team with Bobby Ryan, Teemu Selanne, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry have just nine wins in 32 games and 11 straight road losses. The good news is that the Ducks are actually playing better and the return of their best defenseman, Lubomir Vishnovsky, is a big boost. This will be Vishnovsky’s third game back. The Ducks are allowing a lot less scoring chances and shots on net since Bruce Boudreau took over and it’s only a matter of time before they start winning some games. There’s too much talent on this club to maintain that losing percentage over a long period of time and they catch the Stars at the perfect time. Richard Bachman makes his fifth straight start in net. He was good in his first three games but the Devils got to him in his last game for six goals. That makes him a lot more fragile. He was brought up from the minors because Kari Lehtonen went down and Andrew Raycroft is an insufficient #1 goaltender. Unfortunately, Bachman is not ready for prime time and may never be. In today’s NHL, when goaltenders are typically above 6 ft. tall, Bachman comes in at 5’ 9” and that makes the net appear huge to these NHL snipers that are used to seeing monsters in there. Dallas also returns home from a tough five-game trip that started on the west coast and ended with three games on the east coast. Anaheim’s record-losing road funk has its best shot of ending tonight. Play: Anaheim +138 (Risking 2 units).

JR O'Donnell

La Salle -3.5

LaSalle is 7-3 and 6-1 ATS while Delaware is 4-4 and 3-1 ATS. What we see as the real difference here is the strength of opponents, as LaSalle has lost to Villanova in OT and nationally ranked Pitt on the road by "4". Delaware has lost to Radford (well below .500), Nova by "1" and Penn on the road. This appears to be a happier LaSalle squad with the departure/transfer of Aaric Murray who left to go to WVU, but caused a great deal of dissension on the Explorer squad. They are led by outstanding freshman Ramon Galloway, and have "4" players in double figures, and freshman Jerell Wright is not far from double digits, and has 7.5 reb/g. We see the real difference in that LaSalle scores 74.6 ppg while surrendering 62.4, and Delaware averages 66.5 while allowing 65.4. We rate an edge in backcourt to the Explorers, a slight edge in frontcourt to the Blue Hens (mostly experience) and LaSalle has the best depth. Delaware was picked #7 in the CAA while LaSalle was picked higher in the better A10).

NHL Predictions

Boston Bruins -119 In Regulation

The Montreal Canadiens come into tonight's game with just 3 wins in their last 11 games, and as a result their head coach was fired before Saturday nights game. They've dropped two straight games, both at home, against the Devils and Flyers. On the season Montreal is now just 13-13-7. Boston has won four straight heading into tonight, including a big 6-0 win in Philadelphia Saturday afternoon. Boston is 21-9-1 on the year, and 11-6-1 at home this season. The Bruins continue to get great goaltending from both of their goalies, and are allowing just 1.94 goals against per game (Montreal is allowing 2.55 goals per game). The Bruins are also scoring almost a goal per game higher than the Habs at 3.4 per game, compared to the Habs who are averaging 2.5 per game. Montreal took the first two meetings between these two teams, but Boston won the latest meeting 1-0 in Montreal. Note that the Canadiens are just 1-8 in their last 9 games as an underdog. Boston is 15-2 in their last 17 games following a win. Not much is going right for the Canadiens, and the Bruins are rolling again winning 4 straight. These two teams have a big rivalry and usually play tight games, but tonight I expect the Bruins to kick the Canadiens while they're down. I wouldn't be surprised to see them win this one by a couple goals, but we will take Bruins in regulation.

Dallas Stars -140

Although Anaheim has struggled all season, their biggest struggles have come away from home. The Ducks are just 2-9-4 on the road this season and haven't won a road game since October 27th. The Ducks are on a 5 game road trip and have lost their first two games 4-1 in Chicago and 5-3 in Winnipeg. The Ducks are just 9-18-5 on the season. Dallas returns home after taking 3 of 5 games on their road trip, and enjoyed two days off after Friday's loss in New Jersey. The Stars are 9-4-1 on home ice and 18-12-1 on the season. Richard Bachman has stepped in for 4 starts with Lehtonen out and has gone 3-1 with a 2.08 GAA and .931 SV%. Before allowing 6 goals against on Friday, Bachman had allowed just 3 in his previous 3 starts. The Ducks are averaging just 1.73 goals per game on the road, while the Stars are scoring just less than 3 per game at home. Note that the Ducks have just 5 wins in their last 27 games, and are 3-15 in their last 18 games as an underdog. Although Dallas isn't in the best situation coming home from a 5 game road trip, the Ducks are playing their 4th game in 6 nights. Anaheim is just 1-6 in their last 7 games that are the 4th in 6. Also note that the Stars have gone 19-8-1 in these two teams last 28 meetings in Dallas. One of the better home teams this season hosting one of the NHL's worst road teams - I'll take Dallas to get things done at a generous price.

DAVID BANKS

Pittsburgh / San Francisco Under

The 15th week of the NFL season comes to a close Monday night in a match-up filled with playoff ramifications when the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3, 6-7 ATS) and San Francisco 49ers (10-3, 10-2-1 ATS) collide for the first time since 2007; kick-off for this AFC/NFC hard-hitter is set to go live from Candlestick Park at 8:30 ET.

The Steelers’ Week 11 bye looks to have come at the best possible time, as the defending AFC champs have started to play the type of ball that propelled them to the Super Bowl last season. Though it stands just 1-2 ATS over the L/3 weeks, Pittsburgh has beaten the likes of Kansas City, Cincinnati and Cleveland by the aggregate score of 62-19 while limiting that trio to an average of just 262.7 YPG. That's the type of championship caliber defense NFL bettors have gotten used to seeing from the yellow and black through the years, which has head coach Mike Tomlin's squad on the fast track to once again becoming a major player out of the AFC. Unfortunately, the offense will either be forced to go with backup QB Charlie Batch if Ben Roethlisberger isn’t able to give it a go after suffering a high ankle sprain against the Cleveland Browns last week. A bevy of other defensive players are also listed as questionable for tonight's game, but we do know that headhunter LB James Harrison will not suit up after he was suspended by the league due to the helmet to helmet hit he laid upon Colt McCoy last week. Pittsburgh’s 4-2 SU but just 2-4 ATS away from Heinz Field this season.

Rewind three weeks into the regular season and you would've found a San Francisco 49ers outfit brimming with confidence after compiling eye-popping 9-1 SU & 9-0-1 ATS records over the course of their first 10 games played. However, things have taken a turn for the worse since their Thanksgiving night clash with the Baltimore Ravens in the “HarBowl”. Since falling 16-6 in that game and giving up an unheard of nine sacks, the Niners split their next two games against NFC West opponents winning 26-0 at home against the hapless St. Louis Rams and falling 21-19 in the desert last week to the reinvigorated Arizona Cardinals. Many are of the belief that this team's major playmakers are running out of gas and that head coach Jim Harbaugh's squad will be an easy out come the second season. San Francisco can silence its naysayers tonight at home where it’s a stunning comeback by the Dallas Cowboys away from being undefeated (6-1 SU & 6-0-1 ATS).

These teams last met back in 2007 in a game dominated by the Steelers at home where they won 37-16 as 10-point chalk; the ‘over’ has cashed in each of the L/2 meetings. Two of Pittsburgh's three losses on the year have come on the road against current division leaders (BAL, HOU), but it has won each of its last six Monday night appearances. San Francisco is 2-1 SU and a perfect 3-0 ATS its L/3 MNF tussles with the lone defeat coming last year at home versus New Orleans; they’re also 6-1 ATS the L/7 times when playing off an outright defeat. The ‘under’ has cashed in each of the 49ers L/6 Week 15 skirmishes.

Vegas Experts

Detroit at Edmonton
Play: Detroit

Detroit faces off against Edmonton tonight who has been playing absolutely terrible lately. Edmonton has lost eight of their last ten games while Detroit is coming off a huge win over the LA Kings 8-2 and they have won four of their last five matchups and looking back more long term they have only lost five of their last 18 games. Detroit already shutout Edmonton this season 3-0 at home and will have no problem beating them on the road tonight. Edmonton is 8-30 SU coming off a road loss while Detroit is 15-4 SU after a win this season. Detroit is -150, but they still have tons of under-rated value!

Ben Burns

Red Wings @ Oilers
PICK: Under 5.5

These teams met at Detroit about five weeks ago. That 11/11/11 meeting produced only three goals, a 3-0 victory for the Wings. Naturally, that game fell below the total. I feel tonight's "rematch" has a solid shot at also doing so. Note that the previous meeting (also at Detroit) between these teams also stayed below the total, a 2-1 victory for the Wings last March.

The Wings did explode for eight goals on Saturday. That was at Detroit though and they've seen the "under" go 7-4 this season, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Their road games are averaging just 5.1 combined goals, as they're only managing 2.5 goals per game away from Detroit.

Tonight, the Wings will face an Edmonton team which has only managed four combined goals its past three games. Note that three of the Oilers last four games have finished with five or fewer combined goals.

Two of Detroit's three 2010/2011 visits to Edmonton have also fallen below the total. Consider the Under.

Eric Williams

Texas Christian vs. USC
Play: Texas Christian +7½

The USC Trojans have lost three straight games and don’t look like a very good pick to cover a strange point spread as 7-point home favorites against a TCU Horned Frogs team that has plyed pretty well this season despite suffering a loss the last time out. USC suffered a 63-59 loss against Georgia while failing to cover the spread as a 6-point home favorite while TCU lost to Nebraska 69-57 as a 1-point home favorite in their last contest. Nevertheless, I like TCU to get the job done tonight as they’ve recorded a nearly perfect 7-1 ATS mark in its L/8 road games while USC has compiled a dismal 2-6 ATS mark in their L/8 games as a favorite. TCU is also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog while Southern Cal has gone 0-6 ATS in its L/6 road games.

Andrew Lange

Georgia Southern at South Alabama
Recommendation: Over 134

South Alabama's offense has improved this season but the stats don't really show it. The reason is the Jaguars have really run the gauntlet in terms of tough opposing defenses. So far they've faced LSU, Mississippi State, Florida State, LSU, Southern Miss and UAB. In two other games, USA played three awful offenses in Alabama State, Alcorn State and Texas A&M Corpus Christ. As a result, their body work doesn't suggest that we should be looking to play over a moderate total of 134. But tonight is really the first time all season they'll play an opponent that can score at a decent clip and that struggles to defend. Georgia Southern is another team whose numbers are skewed because of the opposition. In three games against slow paced South Florida, SMU and EKU, the game scores and possessions were very low. But against teams that don't mind getting up and down the floor (Valpo, Wake Forest, Chattanooga and Appalachian State) we see game scores of 171, 153, 160 and 135. South Alabama head coach Ronnie Arrow was recently quoted as saying he would like his team to push the pace more and it showed in a 79 possession, 102-62 win over Alcorn State. Last time out, they beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi 66-64 but because of the close nature of the game, it bogged down late and produced only 10 points the final 4:30. I expect to see a decent pace here and feel that both teams can reach the mid-60's and beyond.