Wunderdog
Youngstown State vs. Akron
Play: Youngstown State +9.5
The Akron Zips are slated to challenge Kent State for the top of the MAC East, but have started a bit slow at 5-5 and are just 3-5 in their last eight. Youngstown State actually has a better record at 6-4 to a lesser schedule, but the Penguins have been more than competitive, losing just one of their 10 games by as many as 11 points, despite already having played seven of their games on the road. They have shined of late when facing good home teams that win 60% of their home games or more by going 6-2 ATS in their last eight. The road team has claimed the cash in four of the last five meetings, and Akron simply has not hit their stride yet, while Youngstown St. is hanging in every game. Play on Youngstown State in this one.
Tony Stoffo
Marquette vs. LSU
Play: Marquette -7.5
Marquette at LSU With Johnson-Odem back from a suspension - Just can't see the Tigers staying close with the Golden Eagles tonight. This LSU has started seasons fast as of late - however they always disappoint when the quality teams show up. The Tigers have dropped 11 straight meetings versus Top 25 foes by an average of 16 points. Plus add in the fact that the Tigers leading scorer guard Andre Stringer (12 points a game) is likely out tonight with fainting and dizzy spells only will add to a lopsided Marquette win here this evening.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Howard +28.5
I believe this is the time to fade Indiana, which is 6-0 ATS in lined games this season and has gained plenty of public support following back-to-back big wins over then-No.1 Kentucky and in-state rival Notre Dame. Playing on underdogs of 20 or more points (HOWARD) after 2 or more consecutive losses, provided they are matched up against an opponent that has rattled off 10 or more consecutive wins, has produced a 54-24 ATS record since 1997. Teams in this situation have been 25.8-point underdogs on average but have only lost by an average of 23.1 points. This system has produced a 14-3 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Take the points.
Steve Janus
Creighton -3
While Creighton is ranked 24th in the country coming into this game, I think they still lack the respect other teams would get playing out of a bigger conference. Creighton is 8-1 on the year with their only loss coming at St Josephs. Don't let that loss fool you into thinking the Bluejays are going to struggle against Tulsa. Creighton already has a couple of big road wins over UAB and San Diego State on their resume.
Tulsa squeaked by Texas=Arlington 80-75 to snap a four game losing streak last time out, and I look for this team to go right back to their losing ways. If this were a 5-7 point spread, I would show some concern, but at 3-points its definitely worth a small wager!
Creighton is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, while Tulsa is just 3-16-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Jack Jones
Duke -30
The Duke Blue Devils had all last week off for Finals Week. They have not played since 12/10 and will be well-rested and ready to go tonight. Getting done with Finals is a huge relief, and I look for these Duke players to come out relaxed and with new life Monday.
Duke has managed to get through a very brutal schedule at 9-1 this season. Their only loss came at Ohio State, but they have beaten very good teams in Tennessee, Michigan, Kansas, Michigan State, Davidson and Washington thus far. This UNC-Greensboro team is the worst that they have faced all year.
Greensboro is 2-9 on the season. Their only wins have come against UNC-Pembroke and Towson State (0-10). They have played some tough teams on the road this season. Greensboro lost at Tennessee 63-92 and at Georgetown 45-86. Those two losses came by an average of 35.0 points, and Duke is a far better team than both Tennessee and Georgetown. I look for the Blue Devils to roll by 35-plus tonight.
Duke is 7-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings with UNC-Greensboro. They won all seven meetings by 27 or more points, including six times by 33 or more points. The Blue Devils won 108-62 last year at Greensboro as a 33-point favorite. Bet Duke Monday.
Dave Price
1 Unit Arizona State +1.5
Motivated by Saturday's poor performance (1-point loss to 14.5-point underdog N. Arizona), I expect the Sun Devils to take care of business this evening. It has been best to stay away from ASU when it is laying points, but it has been a quality underdog investment, especially at home where it is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games as a home underdog. It is even 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Arizona State.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Denver -6.5
Denver, which has been an excellent home investment for years (81-56-5 ATS mark L142 home games) is 5-1 at home this season. Its lone loss came by just 2 points to a very good Iona team, and it covered the spread in that game as a 3-point underdog. The Pioneers are now 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at home. Home court has certainly provided an edge in this series as the home team has won 9 in a row straight up while posting a reliable 5-3-1 ATS mark. The home team has won by at least 8 points in 4 of the last 5 meetings, and the Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Denver. Since the start of last season, the Pioneers are a flawless 6-0 ATS in home games when matched up against good teams that outscore the opposition by 4 points or more per game. They are defeating these foes by an average of 10.2 points. We'll lay the points.
Hollywood Sports
Flyers at Avalanche
Prediction: Over
Philadelphia (20-8-2-1) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 6-0 loss to Boston. The Flyers have seen the Over go a decisive 38-18-1 in their last 57 games after failing to score more than two goals in their last contest. The Over is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five goals in their last game. Philly has also played 5 straight road games Over the Totals as a favorite. The Flyers have been tough road warriors this season with their 12-3-1-0 mark away from home -- and Colorado (15-17-1-0) has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against a team with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Avalanche come off a 2-1 win over Washington on Saturday -- and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games coming off a win. Take the Over in this one.
Rocketman
TCU vs. USC
Play: USC -7
USC is allowing only 55.1 points per game overall and 55.7 points per game at home this season. Horned Frogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Horned Frogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5. Horned Frogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Horned Frogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Trojans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. We'll recommend a small play on USC tonight!
Black Widow
1* Southern Miss -1.5
Southern Miss is favored for a reason tonight. The Golden Eagles have been going under the radar all year, but this is clearly one of the better teams in the country. Southern Miss is 8-2 on the season, and they have played six road games already so it's not like they have played a soft schedule. Arizona State is in rebuilding mode. The Sun Devils are 4-6 on the year while losing many of its key players from last season. ASU is just 2-8 ATS in all games this season, which includes an 0-3 ATS stretch in their last three homes games with a 61-69 loss to Nevada, a 60-57 win over North Dakota State, and a 68-69 loss to Northern Arizona. The Sun Devils were favored in all three of those games, and played terribly in each. They also have straight up losses to Pepperdine, New Mexico, Fairfield and DePaul this season. Southern Miss' only losses have come to Denver and Murray State, two teams with a combined 20-2 record. While Denver and Murray State don't "sound" like tough competition, they are two of the most underrated teams in the country this year. Arizona State is 0-6 ATS in all home games in 2011. Take Southern Miss and lay the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
UNLV/ LA Monroe Under 139: Can a flat spot for a team really affect an OU play. I'm willing to bet it can. This is a flat spot for the Rebels as they are off a huge win vs Illinois and now they play as HUGE favorites vs a 1-10 Warhawks squad, knowing they have Arizona on deck. How can the Rebels be up for this game and I feel it should affect them more on the offensive end than at the defensive end. The Rebels do come in averaging 77.7 ppg on 46.1% shooting and ULM does allow 71.9 ppg on the year, but they have played better defense on the road of late as they have allowed just 68.3 ppg in their last 4 away from home. The Rebels have played very good defense this year, especially at home where they have allowed just 59.1 ppg, including just 52.8 in their last 4 there. The Warhawks are not a team that will score a bunch, as they have averaged just 62.6 ppg overall and 60.5 ppg on the road. I don't expect them to hit either of those numbers tonight. Two games a go the Rebels were in a similar situation vs Utep 2 games ago as they were off a huge win at Wisconsin and had the Illinois game on deck. Just 119 points were scored in that UTEP game. I know as i write this game up some of you will say why not take the dog here, with UNLV being in a flat spot. Well I just think the Under is the play as UNLV could blow them out, but not give up a ton of points. 75-40 is a distinct possibility. Bottom line here is that I don't expect the Rebels to wear themselves out vs a 1-10 team and that should keep the scoring down. I say about 120 here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY-- Play the under if a total is between 130 to 139.5 and a tema (UNLV) allowed 50 or less in their last game and their opponents trailed their last 2 games by at least 10 points at the half. This play is 43-18 since 1997.
Denver/ Wyoming Over 116: These teams have met every year since 2004 and while they combined for just 109 points last year, in the previous 7 meetings these team hit at least 116 points in each game and they have averaged 128.3 ppg. Let's also note that 6 of the last 8 in the series has been decided by 11 points or less so this is normally a tight game and that could mean plenty of FT's at the end of this game and with Wyoming hitting 72.2% of theirs and Denver hitting 92% of theirs, we could see a ton of points at the end of this one. Wyoming comes in averaging 66 ppg an a very solid 46.7% shooting (33.9% from long range), while Denver has been slightly better on offense, putting up 67.9 ppg on 49.3% shooting (40.8% from long range. These teams can shoot the rock. These teams can also play defense. Wyoming is 3rd in the nation in scoring defense (50.1 ppg), but they have yet to face a team that shoots as well as Denver, especially at home (51.2%). Denver is usually a good defensive team and this year they have allowed just 61.6 ppg, but teams have also shot a high 44% off of them and vs a good shooting Wyoming team they should give up some points here. Denver plays a slightly higher tempo at home and I believe these teams are very evenly matched overall, so I look for a close game with a lot of FT's at the end, plus their is the possibility of OT as well. This one should hit 120 with ease.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Marquette/ LSU Over 137.5: Google News play. In LSU's last game vs UC Irvine I had the Under and if it wasn't for crappy shooting in the game I would have lost. I expected them to play a slow down brand of ball and then they went out and hoisted up 67 shots in the game, while UC Irvine had 66 shots. That's a lot of shots in a game and I expect it to continue tonight, as i look for the Over here. I also expect them to shoot better than the 33.1% they put up in their last game. In the last 5 games LSU has put up 60.8 shots per game, while their opponents have thrown the ball up 56.4 times. LSU this year has scored well at home as they have averaged 75.2 ppg on their home floor and they have shot better also hitting 41% of their shots there. Marquette has no such offensive problems as they have scored 84 ppg on an impressive 49.7% shooting and they like to get up and down the floor as they have averaged 58.8 shots per game, which is 68th in the nation. Let's also note that the Over is 71-37, since 1997, if the home teams has allowed 60 points or less in 4 straight games and they have at least 4 starters back from last year. This should be an up and down style of game with no less than 145 points scored.
UMKC +25 over MICHIGAN STATE: The Spartans are rolling this year, but they have not won by more than 20 in each 0f their last 3 games and they have won by just an average of 20.6 ppg in their 6 lined games this year. The Spartan do play good defense but they have allowed 66 ppg in their last 4 games and this is a decent shooting Kangaroos team they will face tonight. UMKC averages 68.1 ppg on 43.5% shooting overall and 37.8% from long range (61st), while in their last 6 games overall and they have scored an average of 78.5 ppg in their last 6 games. UMKC allows just what they score, 68.1 ppg and they are 70th in the nation at defending the three (30.2%). The holidays are a time of year when these big dogs can keep games close than the big favorites could have their focus elsewhere, plus Michigan State is in the same boat as Indiana where they will just try and come out of these next 2 games healthy as they get ready for the Big 10 season. I look for a win of 15 to 20 here by Michigan State as the Kangaroos offense will keep them from getting destroyed.
2 UNIT PLAY
Howard +28.5 over INDIANA: This may not be a total flat spot for the Hoosiers, as their next game is vs MD Baltimore, but they are off games vs Kentucky and Notre Dame and they do have the Big 10 opener vs Michigan State in 9 days, so I really don't expect an all out game from them here. I mean how much could a 10-0 team that's favored by 28.5 get up for a 4-8 squad anyway. I look for the Hoosiers to use the next two games as just tuneups for the Big 10 schedule and also try and stay healthy and that will not mean blowing out a hapless team like Howard tonight.
Michigan State/ UMKC Over 134.5: I like the Kangaroos to keep this one within the big number and that will be due mainly to their offense. They have averaged over 78 ppg in their last 6 games, while have allowed 74.3 ppg in their last 4 games. as Pool stated yesterday, UMKC is a team that can get hot shooting the ball 49% over their last 5 games) and they will need their 37.8% shooting (61st) form long range to keep this one close and I do expect them to hoist a bunch of threes as they will not be able to penetrate the interior of that Spartans defense. The Spartans offense even The Spartans offense has put up 82.4 ppg in their last 5 games, while their defense has been a bit laxed of late, allowing an average of 62.6 ppg over that same span. KEY TREND--- The Over is 11-3 in lined games when UMKC is a road dog or pick over the last 3+ seasons.
1 UNIT PLAYS
TCU/ USC Under 116.5: The Trojans like to slow the game down and they usually get their wish, especially at home where there games have averaged 111.4 ppg. TCU averages 68 ppg overall and 73.3 ppg on the road,, but the Trojans allow just 55.7 ppg on 35.9% shooting at home. TCU has allowed 70.1 ppg overall and 76 ppg on the road, but USC will NOT push the ball no matter what kind of defense they will be facing. This one should hit around 110.
SIU- Edwardsville +14 over SOUTHERN ILLINOIS: The Salukis are not a good team this year and because of their style they just don't blow teams out. This did win by 16 over Chicago State (an 0-11 team) earlier, but still 5 of their 7 games have been decided by 13 or less this year. I expect the Cougars to surprise the salukis and keep this one close.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh/ San Francisco Under 38: I know that Pittsburgh really needs this game, but I don't expect them to open it up vs this defense, even if Big Ben is playing. The Steelers do average 21.7 ppg and 371.6 ypg overall, but they have struggled on the road, averaging just 18.2 ppg and 345.6 ypg. Pittsburgh does need their ground game to get going so they can pass, but the Niners are number 1 in the league vs the run, allowing just 70.5 ypg, so Pitt could be in for a bunch of long yardage situations. Pittsburgh's defense has been very good this year and will be without Harrison (suspension), but they do enter this week's play having yielded the second-fewest points (15.2 ppg) and total yards (276.1 ypg), plus they are 1st vs the pass (179.1 ypg) and 6th vs the run (97 ypg) in 2011, despite the four-time Pro Bowler having been inactive for four games with a fractured orbital bone earlier in the year and fellow pass-rushing terror LaMarr Woodley out the same amount of time with a hamstring pull. San Francisco generally employs a conservative, ball-control philosophy that's been highly effective when workhorse running back Frank Gore (1054 rushing yards, 6 TD, 16 receptions) is at his best. Overall this year the Niners are 25th in total offense, 29th in passing offense and 8th in rushing offense. Like Pittsburgh, the Niners have been stout on defense as they rank 4th overall and 1st in points allowed, plus as i mentioned above, ist vs the run. Pittsburgh is 9th in the league in yards per play (5.9), but the Niners allow just 5.0 ypp on the year (5th). On the other side we have a Steelers team that is tops in defensive yards per play (4.6), while the Niners are 25th in offensive yards per play (5.1). This will not be a game of explosive plays, as both teams will have to work their way down the field and that will eat clock. Both teams have played some low scoring games of late as Pittsburgh's last 3 games have averaged just 27 ppg, while the Niners last 4 have put up just 29.5 ppg. This should be a classic defensive battle with around 30 points being scored.