Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 2

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Florida at Connecticut
The Gators travel to Connecticut tonight to face a Huskies team that is 8-14 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games. Florida is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Huskies favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida (+5 1/2)

Game 711-712: Florida at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 70.528; Connecticut 71.878
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+5 1/2)

Game 713-714: Auburn at Iowa State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 53.287; Iowa State 79.953
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 26 1/2
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-18 1/2)

Game 715-716: Western Kentucky at Bowling Green (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 54.539; Bowling Green 50.530
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 4
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 1
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-1)

Game 717-718: Vanderbilt at Texas (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 61.373; Texas 65.827
Dunkel Line: Texas by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+7 1/2)

Game 719-720: UC-Irvine at California (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 59.737; California 70.141
Dunkel Line: California by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: California by 7
Dunkel Pick: California (-7)

Game 721-722: Loyola Marymount at UC-Riverside (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola Marymount 53.380; UC-Riverside 47.759
Dunkel Line: Loyola Marymount by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola Marymount by 3
Dunkel Pick: Loyola Marymount (-3)

Game 723-724: Wright State at Morehead State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 52.643; Morehead State 58.058
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (-3 1/2)

Game725-726: Chattanooga at Georgia (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 40.981; Georgia 62.568
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-12 1/2)

Game 727-728: Niagara at Arkansas State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 47.637; Arkansas State 56.572
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 9
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-7 1/2)

Game 731-732: Mercer at Oklahoma (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 56.544; Oklahoma 69.491
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 13
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-7 1/2)

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SEATTLE (-4.5) 28 New Orleans 22FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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In a huge Monday night match-up that will likely determine the #1 seed in the NFC playoff race, the Saints travel to face the Seahawks in Seattle. New Orleans enters this game winners of their last three and off of a competitive 17-13 win in Atlanta last Thursday night. This should be a great game to watch as both teams do a lot well, with advanced stats in nearly every category that are very good. The Seahawks rushing game against the Saints rush defense is one match-up to watch (the Seahawks average 149 yards at 4.8 ypr against teams that allow 112 yards at 4.3 ypr and face a Saints rush defense that is allowing 112 at 4.9 ypr to teams that gain 105 yards at 4.3 ypr on average). Seattle also has a very effective passing game that should get better as WR Percy Harvin gets acclimated to the offense. The other match-up to watch is the Saints passing offense against the Seattle secondary (which has been the best in the league) but will be missing starting CB Brandon Browner and his backup Walter Thurmond. There is no doubt that Drew Brees will test their replacements and with the extra time to prepare, I expect that they will be well schemed to take advantage of the opportunity. The Seahawks have been deadly at home where they have not lost with Russell Wilson at the helm (13-0), including 5-0 this year where they have outscored opponents 32.4 - 15.4. The Saints are just 3-2 on the road this year, including a loss to the Jets. I have situations that go both ways in this game and my model favors the Seahawks in this spot (-4.4). It looks like the weather could favor the Seahawks as well with temperatures in the 30’s and the possibility of snow flurries. This game is really a toss-up as far as I am concerned but I will lean with the Seahawks minus the points at home.

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Pacers vs Trail BlazersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 188FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Look for a low scoring affair in Portland tonight Indiana has been playing lock down on defense. The Pacers have allowed less then 85 points in 4 of their last 5 games. Go with the UNDER tonight.

Carlos Salazar's Featured Package

Rob Vinciletti

Indiana Pacers vs. Portland Trailblazers
Play: Indiana Pacers -1½

The Pacers travel into the Rose garden with the leagues best record at 16-1 after knocking off the LA. Clippers. They will take on a Portland team that has surprised many by bolting out of the gate with a 13-3 record. The Pacers apply to a fine system here tonight that has won the last 6 times and plays on road favorites of 4 or less points if they scored 90 or more points the night before as a road favorite of 4 or less points and take on an opponent, like Portland that also played as a road favorite in their last game. The Pacers have won and covered 8 of the last 11 as a road favorite of 3 or less. Look for them to emerge with another win.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Brandon Shively

Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Houston Rockets -7½

The Rockets have now won 5 straight, going 5-0 ATS during the span. They have found a nice rhythm and I like them against the Jazz tonight. Houston is averaging 109 ppg this year overall and actually they are scoring a tad bit more on the road at 111 ppg. That is 19 more points than the 90 points the Jazz are scoring at home per game. On paper, this is a huge mismatch, and I expect the final score to reflect these statistical discrepancies.

Houston FG% : 48.9
Utah FG%: 42.6
Houston Made3 PT FG a game: 10.3 (38%)
Utah Made 3 PT FG a game : 5.7 (30%)
Houston Rebounds a Game: 46.2
Utah Rebounds a Game: 40.4
Houston Blocks a Game: 6.7
Utah Blocks a Game: 4.3

It is not often that I advise laying points on the road in the NBA, but tonight you have a HOT team in the Rockets that already beat the Jazz 104-93 earlier this year. The Rockets are playing much better ball now than then, and seeing the Jazz have lost 5 of their 8 home games by 9 or more points this season, I have no problem laying the chalk on the road tonight as Houston should win this one by double digits.

Steve Rich

Saints vs. Seahawks
Play: Under 47½

The Saints and the Seahawks is probably for home field advantage throughout the playoffs in the NFC. The Saints are 9-2 while the Seahawks are an impressive 10-1. If Seattle should win they would virtually have a three game lead for home field. The Saints with a win would have the tie breaker if they both win out. This is what it’s all about right here. Good old fashioned November football with playoff implications. We are 2-0 with our Monday Night Football Totals Plays.

Saints

When the Saints come marching into Seattle to take on the Seahawks on Monday Night Football they bring the second ranked pass offense and third ranked offense in scoring at over 27 points per game. We all know Drew Brees as an elite quarterback and he will be looking to extend his MNF winning streak to ten games. With that being said they have only scored 23 and 17 points respectively the last two weeks. The 23 was at home against a good 49ers defense and the 17 was on the road against the Falcons. This will be a tough assignment even though the Seattle secondary is injured right now. The Rob Ryan coached defense of the Saints is so much improved they are ranked 4th in the league in points scored allowing just over 17 per game.

Seahawks

The Seahawks offense is led by running back Marshawn Lynch’s 925 yards and 9 TD’s. With QB Wilson not as effective as last year you can look for Lynch to carry the load to help keep Brees off the field. Good plan, Lynch is a bull to bring down and can certainly wear down a defense. The Seahawks defense is the second best in the NFL when it comes to points allowed at only 16. They are without two starters but they are a great team defense and they will have their 12th man to help.

Analysis

I think this will be a hard fought defensive game, although New Orleans can certainly score in bunches I look for the Seattle defense to hold it to a dull roar. The Saints don’t score nearly as many on the road. For the Hawks, Lynch is a great weapon that will eat clock. I’m going to lean on the under 47.5 here. This is more like a playoff game.

Doug Upstone

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Minnesota Wild
Play: Minnesota Wild -142

The Flyers have rebounded nicely after starting the season 1-7 as they have climbed back to .500 on the year at 12-12. The Wild are the better team despite their recent four game winless streak. Part of that is their 0-9 conversion on the power play in their last five games, they are bound to break out of that slump. Minnesota is a solid top ten team according to many reports I see and laying the small number with home ice tonight, is worth it.

Justin Bay

Vanderbilt vs. Texas
Play: Texas -7

Vanderbilt
- Average 75.8 points/game
- Allow 72.5 points/game
- AOPR Rating: 99.66

Texas
- Average 78.9 points/game
- Allow 69.6 points/game
- AOPR Rating: 104.28

**According to our system, Texas will win this game by double digits**

Jim Feist

Indiana Pacers at Portland Trailblazers
Pick: Indiana Pacers

Two of the surprising NBA clubs meet on Monday at the 16-1 Pacers take on the 13-3 Blazers. Both of these clubs in in the 2nd of a back-to-back spot with Indiana winning Sunday at the LA Clippers and Portland at halftime as I write this. So both teams will have that dreaded spot to deal with. Portland lost for the first time since Nov 11th when they dropped an away game at Phoenix last Wednesday, 120-106. Our Free winner from Sunday, the Pacers, have now won seven straight since their loss on Nov 16 at Chicago. The Pacers defense gave up it's most points on Sunday (100) since their loss to the Bulls. In fact, the Clippers were just the second team to score 100 points or more against them. Not surprisingly, the Pacers have been a very good under play, going 5-12 Ov/Un this season. Meanwhile, Portland has relied on a very good offense this season, scoring over 100 points in three straight (not counting Sunday) and 11 of their 16 overall. Blazers haven't done well at home though, going just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 at Moda Center. Should be another great game to watch, but like Sunday, I'm sticking with the visitor here.

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New Orleans +5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Saints are 12-0 ATS after any game in which their possession time was at least a minute and a half below their season-to-date average. More importantly, since Sean Peyton became their head coach in 2006, the Saints are a character-revealing 6-0 ATS (+9.33 ppg) as a dog when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak, winning five of the six and each of their last three straight up.

Larry Ness

Indiana Pacers at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers

The Indiana Pacers are now 16-1 after beating the Clippers at Staples Center Sunday afternoon and it would hard to argue against them being the NBA's most impressive team through the season's first month (also 13-4 ATS). However, the Pacers will have a tough time here in Portland, up against a Blazers team which has left all the bad memories of last year's 33-49 season, behind them.

Indiana continues its five-game road trip Monday night against a Portland team which has only lost ONCE, over the last three weeks. It HAS to be noted that the Pacers' 105-100 Sunday win over the Clippers is their lone victory over a team currently above .500 (they have beaten New Orleans and Memphis, a pair of 8-8 teams). Indiana allows league lows of 86.5 PPG on 39.0 percent shooting but the offense averages modest numbers, 97.5 PPG on 44.8 percent shooting.

The Blazers are 14-3 (12-5 ATS), going 6-1 SU at home. They are coming off a 114-108 road win over the Lakers at Staples Center, just hours after Indiana had knocked off the Clippers there. The final was a little closer than they would have liked, after entering the fourth quarter with a 20-point lead. "When things are going well, we tend to ease up instead of tightening up and putting teams away," point guard Damian Lillard said.

Portland is playing some of its best basketball in years, having tied a franchise record with 13 wins in the month of November and earning 12 victories in its last 13 contests. LaMarcus Aldridge is averaging just shy of a double-double (22.4 & 9.5) rebounds per game, while PG Lillard averages 20.2-3.9-5.8.

The Pacers have lost FOUR consecutive games in Portland and my bet is that they lose their FIFTH in a row, tonight.

Hollywood Sports

Houston at Utah
Play: Under

Utah (3-15)has won two of their last three games after their 112-104 win at Phoenix as an 8.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Jazz have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total following a win and 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory.

And while the Rockets are 5-3 on the road, the Under is 22-8-1 in their last 31 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Houston (13-5) has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams that allowed at least 100 points in their last game. The Rockets have won five games in a row with their 112-106 win at San Antonio on Saturday. Houston has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Lastly, in the last 8 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total in 7 of these contests. Take the Under in this one.

Jimmy Boyd

Spurs/Hawks Under 197½

The Spurs defense is extremely good, and I don't think Atlanta can score enough points to send this game over the total. San Antonio is allowing just 91.6 points per game. They have held opponents to a mere 42.8 percent shooting from the field, and Atlanta has scored almost two points per game below their opponents points surrendered average. I don't think San Antonio is going to do a lot of scoring either, as they should have a comfortable lead late in this game since they are a double-digit favorite.

The Hawks have played solid defense this season too. They are allowing 99.6 points per game, but have played a very tough schedule this season. They are playing with a day of rest, so I expect a strong defensive performance against the Spurs today. The Hawks have gone under the total in seven of their last nine games. The under is also 9-1 in Atlanta's last 10 games against teams making over 48 percent of their shot attempts dating back to last season.

Joe Gavazzi

Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Houston Rockets -7½

Eager to play against the worst team in the NBA, the Utah Jazz, who has yet to win consecutive games this season. As one of the highest scoring teams in the league, the Rockets are averaging 109 PPG on 49% shooting. The Rockets have won 5 straight and covered 8/9. Momentum road favorites are a highly profitable play in the NBA. Take advantage with this high-scoring double digit winner.