Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 20,2010

Tom Freese

Utah Jazz at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Utah Jazz

Cleveland is 8-19 straight up this year. The Cavaliers are 6-19-1 ATS their last 26 games when playing with one day of rest. Cleveland is 3-7-1 ATS their last 11 games as an underdog. The Cavs are 0-4-1 ATS off an ATS win. Utah is 19-9 straight up this year. The Jazz are 30-14 ATS their last 44 Monday games. Utah is 5-0-1 ATS their last 6 games vs. a team with win percentage of under 40%. The Jazz are 34-15-2 ATS their last 51 games vs. Eastern Conference. Utah is 7-2 ATS when playing with one day of rest.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Clippers

Neither of these teams are very good, but both are playing quite well as of late. The Clippers have won BB games for just the second time all season while the T'wolves are 3-0 ATS their last three games, covering against Phoenix, Portland and Denver, all on the road. They didn't win any of those games, but the bottom line is the Clippers cannot be trusted as a favorite + they are 1-11 ATS playing with revenge for a loss of three points or less. Minnesota is 4-0 ATS their last four visits here against the Clips.

Play on: Minnesota

LARRY NESS

New Orleans @ Indiana Dec
PICK: Indiana -3

The Hornets opened the season 8-0 SU and ATS, then extended their hot start to 11-1 SU. However, the Hornets will 'limp' into Indiana tonight 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS over their last 15 games. All Stars West (19.3-7.2) and Paul (16.3-4.4-9.9) produce night-in and night-out but that's about it. First-year head coach Monty Williams just doesn't have any answers as of late, especially on the road. New Orleans has lost SEVEN of eight on the road, after winning FOUR of its first five away from home. The Hornets will take a five-game road losing streak into Conseco Fieldhouse tonight, having been outscored by an average of 12.8 PPG during their slide. The Pistons had four players injured in Sunday's game, yet the Hornets fell, 111-108 in OT at Detroit. "We gave up 59 points in the second half, and that doesn’t count overtime," coach Monty Williams said. "We just didn’t guard the ball. We kept giving them open 3-point shots when that was all they could hit." This year's team is beginning to resemble last year's squad, which was an awful 13-28 away from home. The Pacers have dropped four of their last five after losing 99-88 at Boston on Sunday. However, they have won three of their last four at home, improving their season's home mark to 7-6. Granger (21.0-5.4) has led the team as expected and center Hibbert (14.5-8.5) has made great strides in his third season (averaged just 7.1-3.5 as a rookie). The team's perimeter game isn't bad with PG Collison (13.2-4.1 APG) being backed up by TJ Ford (6.1-3.8 APG) plus a now-healthy Dunleavy (12.4-5.4) and Brandon Rush (12.0) both playing reasonably well on the wing. Neither McRoberts (6.8-5.7) nor Hansbrough (5.3-3.3) are likely to be All Stars but both are proving to be hard workers and contributors. Hornets are in a funk and I much prefer the Pacers in this one.

Jim Kruger

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings +9

We saw last night what success a team behind a seldom used quarterback with a week to prepare can do with Green Bay battling New England losing 31-27 but outgaining the Pats, 369 to 249 and winning the time of possession , 40:48 to 19:12.

This game is outside at the University of Minnesota stadium. Laying more than a touchdown on the road is very dangerous for an offensively challenged Bear team that ranks 30th in offensive yardage and 24th in scoring at 19.5 points per game.

Both teams are off of embarrassing losses. Chicago, a 36-7 pasting by New England, and the Vikings, 21-3 to the Giants, where they gained only 61 yards on 22 carries.

Add in a very low total due to weather conditions with potential single-digit temperatures and the only side I can take is Minny and the points.

Craig Trapp

Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Orlando Magic -1

Usually we wait to handicap trades but really think ORL still has enough left that will keep them pointed in right direction. Also does not hurt that Joe Johnson is just getting back from injury and Crawford is out tonight for ATL. Howard, Nelson, and Reddick will all get 20 plus tonight and the new acquisitions will add just enough for good quality road win.

SPORTS WAGERS

MINNESOTA +8½ over Chicago

You’re probably going to read a little bit about this game and what you’re going to read is that the Vikes have no shot with Joe Webb at QB playing outdoors in frigid temperatures when they were built to play indoors on a fast track. The problem with that assessment is that if we listened to the so-called experts every week, we’d all be broke. What we really have here is a complete overreaction to the Vikes using a third string QB, much in the same way there was an overreaction to Aaron Rodgers being out. If Brett Favre or Tavaris Jackson were starting what would this line be? A pick? Bears by a point or two? Be that as it may, we’ll take Joe Webb over Favre or Jackson every time. The conditions are supposed to be cold and wintery, much like the conditions the Bears played in last week when the Pats went in there and plastered them by about 50 points or so. Chicago is not a contender. They’ve played the weakest schedule in the NFL and have only played four games this season against over .500 clubs. One of those was a 20-17 win over the Pack in week 3 in which they had no business winning. Against twp of those winning teams, the Giants and Pats, they were outscored 53-10. The Vikes can play defense and Joe Webb is a running QB. Those two things might just work strongly in their favor in poor conditions. This is also the Vikes “Super Bowl”. They’ve had a miserable year and a win here on Monday Night against the hated Bears will make it all worthwhile. Also note the low total here of 33. That number alone dictates that taking the points is the smart choice. Play: Minnesota +8½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

EZWINNERS

Chicago Bears -9

This Monday Night Football game will be played at TCF Bank Stadium on the campus of the University of Minnesota due to the damaged roof at the Metrodome. I'm sure the Bears won't mind at all as Chicago has lost seven of its last eight games at the Metrodome. The Bears are coming off of an embarrassing home loss to the Patriots last week, but I expect them to get back on track in this game. Chicago's defense was picked apart by Tom Brady last week so I look for the Bears defense go be fired up tonight. Chicago did a good job of shutting down Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson in a 27-13 win at Soldier Field in November, and they get to face Viking's third string quarterback Joe Webb in this game. I don't expect Minnesota to generate much offense, lay the points.

JIM FEIST

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS / WASHINGTON WIZARDS
PLAY: CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

The Washington Wizards made a big move over the weekend by dealing longtime superstar Gilbert Arenas. It's obvious that the Wizards want to build this team around future star John Wall. Though Wall may not play tonight with a tendinitis in his knee. Newly acquired Rashard Lewis is expected to make his debut tonight with the Wizards. Will it make a difference though? I don't think so. It will likely take a bit for the new look Wizards to play like a team again and that doesn't bode well tonight when you consider that they have lost seven straight games to the Bobcats. The Bobcats might be fortunate to catch the Wizards in flux here. Charlotte has lost eight in a row on the road after Friday's setback at Atlanta, 90-85. These are not very good teams matching up here, but someone has to win and I believe the Bobcats will snap that road losing streak.

Matt Fargo

Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks +2.5

The trades over the weekend have given the Magic a brand new look and with this being the first game since the moves, it puts them in a difficult situation. According to the Orlando Sentinel, their walkthrough today will begin a potentially difficult adjustment period in which the team must integrate four new players and adapt to the loss of four others. These moves will help in the long run but in the short-term, their arrival could make a vicious portion of their schedule even more arduous. Atlanta is struggling as well as it has dropped three of four games but it knows this is a golden opportunity to take out its division nuisance. The Hawks trail Orlando by a half-game in the NBA Southeast and after splitting the first two meetings this season in Orlando, the Hawks could really use this one. Jamal Crawford remains out for the Hawks but they have gotten Joe Johnson back in the lineup and even though he has been rusty, this is his third game back so he should be in fine shape tonight. The chemistry of the Magic will be the issue tonight which was the early problem for Miami which has since turned it around. It takes a while for these players to convert to new systems and simply learning to play with new players. “Those guys will probably play two games before they'll even have a practice with us,” Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy said. “As far as working 'em in, it's going to be on the fly.” That is something a team that is on a 1-6 run does not want to hear but is hoping to pay off down the road. Orlando is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games against teams with a winning home record . Atlanta meanwhile has been horrendous this season at home as far as covering, it is 3-0 this season as an underdog of fewer than seven points while the Magic are 2-7 ATS in their nine games as a favorite of the same parameters. 3* Atlanta Hawks

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Golden State Warriors +1.5

Houston is just 4-11 on the road this season. Playing without a day of rest, the Rockets will have their work cut out for themselves against the fresher, run-and-gun Warriors. Playing back-to-back has not been a favorable situation for Houston, which is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games playing without rest. In addition, Golden State has been phenomenal as a home dog. In fact, the Warriors are 50-23-2 ATS in their last 75 games in the role. They are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. These teams have split this season's previous two meetings with the home team winning each. In fact, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Expect this trend to continue here tonight. Bet the Warriors.

SPORTS WAGERS

Florida +1.92 over PHILADELPHIA

Everything is going beautifully for the Flyers. This is a great team with a ton of snipers that has reeled off five in a row and seven of its last eight. Philly’s last five wins have all come against some of its most hated rivals that include the Leafs, Boston, Pittsburgh, Montreal and the Rangers. For the Flyers it really doesn’t get much sweeter than that. They played their hearts out and they deserved every win. With this being the Flyers last game before the break and with eight days off after this one, we could catch them flat here. Surely there is no urgency and surely they know they have eight days off as soon as this one ends. The Panthers are coming off a 6-2 win over the Sabres. This is a dangerous team on any given night because of their strong work ethic and stronger determination. They really catch the Flyers at the perfect time and with a tag like this on them, they’re certainly worth a play. Play: Florida +1.92 (Risking 2 units).

Calgary +1.08 over MINNESOTA

These two played in Calgary on Saturday night and the Wild came out with another fortunate win. They were badly outplayed again and managed just 16 measly shots on net with four shots in both the second and third periods. You look at Minnesota’s last four games and see shot totals of 16, 24, 22 and 21. The Wild are a game above .500 but that’s the most misleading record in the NHL, as they rarely outplay their opponents and only a whole slew of lucky goals and solid goaltending prevents them from having the NHL’s worst record. That’s not saying they can’t win. It is saying that they’re in no way to be trusted as the chalk. The Flames are playing very solid defensively and have now gone six straight without allowing more than three goals in a game. They’re 3-3 over that stretch but deserve better after outplaying both Anaheim and Minnesota. Incidentally, two of those three losses came in OT so in reality, the Flames could be on a six game winning streak had they gotten some bounces go their way. The Flames chances of winning here are greater than Minnesota’s and that’s because they’re very likely to outplay them again. Play: Calgary +1.08 (Risking 2 units).

Sam Martin

Utah Jazz at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Utah Jazz

Cleveland ended their long losing streak with an overtime win over the New York Knicks on Saturday, but we expect them to start a new losing streak here tonight. The Cavs were fortunate to face a New York team in a big letdown spot after back-to-back losses to the Celtics and Heat, and the Knicks didn't play very good defense allowing Cleveland to make layups all game long. Utah won't let that happen, and we look for them to blowout a Cavs team that has lost by double-digits in seven of their last eleven games overall.

John Ryan

Illinois State vs. NC Wilmington
Play: Illinois State -2.5

5* graded play on Illinois State as they take on UNC-Wilmington set to start at 7:05 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Illinois State will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 38-12 ATS for 76% winners since 2005. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 and is a poor offensive team scoring between 63-67 points per game and now facing an average defensive team allowing 67-74 points per game and after a combined score of 115 points or less. UNCV-Wilmington is 0-6 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the last three seasons; 0-6 ATS after allowing 60 points or less over the last two seasons. Stop Chad Tomko No doubt in my mind that Illinois State has the personnel to contain Tomko, who is the UNC-Wilmington team leader in several statistical categories. He averages 13.6 points per game and is the only scorer on the Seahawks that is scoring in double digits. Moreover, he leads the Seahawks averaging 4.4 assists per game and no one else on the team averages great than two assists per game. UNC-Wilmington ranks 272nd in scoring offense at 64.3 points per game, 304th averaging 31.9 boards per game, and 217th averaging just 12.6 assists per game. Illinois State is led by a duo of guard Hill and forward Carmichael who play very well in 2-man sets and distribute the ball to teammates. Hill is averaging 11.7 points per game and Carmichael is averaging 10.7 points per game. Carmichael is 6-9 240 pounds with great moves posting up and I do not see anyone on the UNC-Wilmington team that will be able to contain him. I would not be surprised to see him score 20 or more points. Take Illinois State.

Wunderdog Sports

Calgary Flames vs. Minnesota Wild
Play: Calgary Flames

The Wild have fallen on hard times with just four wins in their last 13 trips on the ice. During the 13 games they had a two-game flurry of 9 goals, but otherwise in the remaining 11 games they have produced just 22 goals or just 2 per contest. The Flames have not allowed more than 3 goals in any of their last six contests, so they have tightened things up considerably. Especially considering that prior to the last 6 games, their opponents hit for 4+ on 11 different occasions. The Wild has been a no-show vs. teams with a losing record where they have been a disappointing 8-22 in their last 30. They are also 1-6 in their last seven in a home-and-home situation with their last one also vs. Calgary. Calgary has the angles and revenge here, so I'm riding with Calgary.