JIM FEIST
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS / PHOENIX SUNS
TAKE: PHOENIX SUNS
Cavaliers just couldn't get it done on Sunday evening at Dallas despite the Mavericks playing without star forward Dirk Nowitski who missed the contest with a gash in his elbow. Tim Thomas replaced Nowitski and filled in admirably with 22 points. But it was the Mavericks defense that was key to the win, holding LeBron James to just two of his 25 points in the fourth quarter. Add to that one bucket by Shaq, and the Mavs defense really was the deciding factor. Now the Cavs play one of those spots that is tough to do in the NBA, back-to-back road games. In fact, tonight's contest is going to be the Cavs third game in four nights. Meanwhile, Phoenix (18-9 SU, 15-11 ATS) has put together a very nice season. The Suns lead the NBA in scoring (108.9 ppg) and an even higher 116.9 ppg at home this season. Don't expect to see much contribution, if any, from Shaq as he likely will get lots of rest or even the entire game off in the back to back spot. Don't see the tired Cavs being able to score point for point here with the Suns. You only have to fade a short 2 to 3 points here with the rested home team. Take the Suns!! Phx is 4-1 both SU and ATS the last five at home against Cleveland.
Mr. Vegas Wins
Giants at Redskins
The Giants have defensive troubles, giving up 45 to the Eagles last week and a ton of big plays as the secondary was out of position often. The Redskins have speed at wideout with Santana Moss and Randle-El, plus they are on a 6-1 run over the total. The weather conditions are decent, cold but no snow and little wind. Play the Giants/Redskins Over the total.
Rocketman
New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington +3
NY Giants defense is allowing 25.4 points per game overall and 26.8 points per game on the road this season. Giants are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 Monday games. Giants are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC East. Giants are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Giants are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Giants are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC. Giants are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Redskins are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Redskins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in December. Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 15. Redskins are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East. Redskins are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Redskins are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. We'll recommend a small play on Washington tonight!
Vincent Chan
Los Angeles Clippers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: San Antonio Spurs -9
The Spurs absolutely dominate the Clippers every time they meet, winning 14 straight against Los Angeles and cashing in each of the last five. That’s why I’ll lay the chalk and play San Antonio at home in this one. The Clippers are playing their fourth straight game on the road tonight after winning in OT on Saturday in Philadelphia, 112-107, as 3½-point underdogs. Look for Tim Duncan and Tony Park to have a big night and the Spurs to roll by double digits.
Hollywood Sports
Cal-Santa Barbara at Arizona St.
Prediction: Cal-Santa Barbara
Arizona State (8-3) has been learning to live life without stars James Harden and Jeff Perndergraph from last year's club. So far, they have suffered losses to Duke, Baylor and BYU but have won two games in a row after defeating San Diego State by a 55-52 score. However, the Sun Devils have covered only once in their last eight games coming off a win. Furthermore, Arizona State has covered only once in their last five games as a home favorite. Now they have to lay double-digits against Cal-Santa Barbara (4-3). The Gauchos have lost three straight games to Montana State, San Diego State and Santa Clara -- but they have covered in five of their last seven games coming off a loss. Cal-Santa Barbara shoots an impressive 47.2% from the field when on the road so they certainly have the propensity to keep this game close. Look for rebounding to play a critical role as well. The Gauchos average 38 boards per game with a 6.5 average rebounding margin when on the road. On the other hand, the Sun Devils are typically out-rebounded at home as they haul down only 31.5 rebounds per game on their own court. Look for the Gauchos to keep this one closer than expected. Take the points with Cal-Santa Barbara.
Black Widow
1* on Utah Jazz +8
Utah is simply catching too many points on the road Monday to not pull the trigger. Though they are 5-7 on the road, the Jazz are only losing by an average of 2.7 points/game. Utah has gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall, and they are starting to play very well after a slow start to the season. Utah is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) after a game with 30 or more assists over the last 3 seasons. The Jazz are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing a game as an underdog this season. Utah is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Take the Jazz and the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON +1.21 over NY Giants
Depending on where you shop, you can likely find a couple of +3’s out there and you couldn’t be faulted for taking three points as oppose to taking the Skins straight up. Having said that, I’ll play the Skins straight up and here’s why. The Giants have two wins in its last eight games and both of them were in New York. Its last road win came on October 4, when they beat the Chiefs. Not only do they have two wins in its last eight but both wins were rather fortunate and if not for that good fortune (an OT win over Atlanta and a win over Dallas) they’d be on an eight-game losing streak. The Giants defense continues to get ripped apart and a close look reveals that the opposition has put up recent scores of 38, 24, 26, 31, 40 and 48 against them. That’s 259 points, or an average of 32.4 points per game over its last eight. The Redskins, too, have just two wins in its last eight and they’re 4-9 overall and will miss the playoffs again. However, they’ve been coming on for weeks and with just a tinge of good fortune they’d be on a five game winning streak. Five weeks ago Washington beat Denver 27-17 and walloped the resurgent Raiders last week but it’s what in between those two wins that’s most interesting. The Redskins played in succession, Dallas, Philly and New Orleans and were in a strong position to win them all, as they had a lead with less than two minutes to go in all of them. Of course an argument could be made that bad teams find a way to lose and that’s true to some extent. However, those are signs of a team coming on and playing some great football. The Skins are at home, its defense is playing great and they’re sure not talking a step up in class when facing this current grease-fire. Play: Washington +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
PHOENIX –2½ over Cleveland
The Cav’s are just not the same dominant team that they were last season. They have nine guys that go cold for long stretches and that leaves one guy that can be counted on. The only thing Shaq does is slow them down even more. The Cav’s are 20-8 but keep losing to good teams and keep beating the poor or average one’s. Cleveland lost in Dallas last night minus Dirk and they’re not taking a step down in class tonight playing in Phoenix. Incidentally, the Cav’s last four wins have come against Milwaukee, Philly, New Jersey and Ok City and they’ve lost three of its last four on the road. Meanwhile, the Suns are a power at home where they’re now 10-0. They recently lost in Cleveland by 17 but that was its fourth game in six nights and the last game of a four-game trip. They’ll be a lot more fresh here and much more focused as well. With LeBron in town the place will be jumping and the Cav’s will once again learn they can’t beat upper echelon teams on the road. Play: Phoenix –2½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Colorado +1.23 over MINNESOTA
The Av’s are expected to fall but they haven’t yet and there are no signs that they will. They just keep playing well and winning a high percentage of its games. In fact, not only do they have a solid record but the Av’s have played the second most difficult schedule in the league according to the Sagerin NHL ratings. Against teams that are 16th or worse in the standing, the Av’s own a tremendous record and the Wild qualify. The Av’s continue to allow its opponents to a very limited amount of shots on net and when they do allow shots, Craig Anderson has answered with a great season thus far. Colorado has won three of four. They may also be a little extra juiced up here because the Wild has been its biggest nemesis, having lost five straight to them and seven of its last eight and that includes all four games this season. The Wild are playing decent hockey too but that fire that ruined its equipment seemed to have a rather negative effect on them, as players need new equipment, which means breaking it in and that’s a psychological disadvantage. Anyway, the Av’s really want this one, as they’re sick of losing to this host and they’ll be extra focused to get this proverbial monkey off its back. Play: Colorado +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
EDMONTON -½ +1.15 over St. Louis
The Blue Notes have problems and it starts with its offense, which ranks dead last in the NHL in goals scored. They played in Vancouver last night and escaped with a solid 3-1 win but the absolutely did not outplay the Canucks. The Blues are tough to beat when they get a lead but when they fall behind its chances of coming back is slim. This is also the third game in four days for the Blues. Meanwhile, the Oilers have dropped three in a row, all at home, after that unlikely five-game road-winning streak. They need this one badly and they should be completely fired up and ready to go. The Oilers had a 2-0 third period lead on Washington on Saturday before allowing four goals and while a loss is a loss, you can just see that they’re on the verge of a big game. The Oilers are so quick and so talented and they catch the Blue Notes at precisely the right time. Play: Edmonton -½ +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
ATLANTA -½ +1.22 over Montreal
What’s so interesting about this game is the total, which is posted at 6, meaning the books expect some goals. Montreal games rarely feature a total of 6 and in fact, they’re usually 5 or 5½ with big juice on the under. With that being the case, we all know that the Habs are tooth and nails to score a single goal, meaning the goals have to come from somewhere. We also know that Jaroslav Halak is net and he’s more likely to give some up than Carey Price. So, in reading “between the lines” it suggests that there will be some goals scored in this one and you simply have to trust the Thrashers to account for most of them. Besides that, the Canadiens have one win in its last six and that came Saturday night against the Islanders in which they were outshot 40-28. The Habs continue to get outplayed badly on a nightly basis and that is very unlikely to change here. Play: Atlanta -½ +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Montana St. –1.02 OVER Cal State Poly
Bettors will be scared by Montana State’s winless road record but in this game talent alone should triumph. Montana State returned four starters from a team that was two points away from a tournament appearance and have played decent basketball thus far. Montana State won’t blow anyone away offensively but they do shoot 38% from three and 49% from two. Cal Poly started the year 0-5 with some really bad losses to San Francisco and Little Rock but won three in a row in December to pull to 3-6 on the year. Cal Poly is a brutal defensive team that allows opponents to shoot 40.5% from three and 53.2% from two. Those statistics against pit them near the bottom of all Division I teams and it’s a major red flag for their backers. Montana State needs to beat teams like this and the road excuse needs to stop. They are simply the better team. Play: #751 Montana St. –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
MONTANA/Fresno St. under 124½
The most important statistic to look at when making any total play in basketball is pace. Pace refers to how many possessions a team uses in a 40 minute game and to make bets without knowing that stat is simply foolish. Montana plays at the 13th slowest pace in all of College Basketball while Fresno plays at the national average. This means that both these teams will have to shoot remarkably well for this game to have any chance at the over and the chances of that aren’t great. Montana and Fresno both play great defense that holds opponents to 91.5 points and 92.5 points per 100 possessions, numbers that place them in the top 64. If you want even simpler statistics, Fresno State’s opponents shoot 39.7% against them while Montana’s shoot 42.5%. I can’t find a single reason recommending an over play and the only explanation is that the public is unaware of pace factor. I don’t even look at points per game and neither should you, as it’s akin to equating wins to a pitchers performance and we all know that those days are behind us. This is one of the more beatable totals posted thus far and you should definitely take advantage. Play: #748 Montana/Fresno St. under 124½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
La Salle +9½ over OKLAHOMA ST.
When you think Oklahoma St vs La Salle most also think blowout. The point is when you wager on a well-known school vs a much less recognizable one you’re almost always going to pay a premium for that wager and that’s certainly the case here. The Cowboys reside in the Big-12, one of, if not the toughest conference in the land. The Explorers play in the Atlantic-10, which is a decent conference but nowhere near the quality of the Big-12. The problem with the Cowboys is its brutal schedule thus far that has seen them play cupcake after cupcake and what that means is they’re not even close to being battle-tested yet. The Cowboys are 9-1 but its wins came in order against Seattle, Southern University, North Texas, Prairie View A&M, Bradley, Utah, Texas-San Antonio, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Stanford. The two most recognizable programs on that schedule are Stanford and Utah, both which are near the bottom of its respective conferences, are a combined 10-11 and the Utes are in last place. Incidentally, Oklahoma St. beat Stanford by a single point. The Cowboys did play the 9-1 Tulsa Golden Hurricane and were smoked by 19 points in its only loss of the year. So, while its 9-1 record looks great on paper, the fact is the Cowboys numbers are completely skewed because of its lousy schedule and now they’ll face a decent and battle tested La Salle squad. The Explorers come in 7-3 but have played two, top five teams in #1 Kansas and #4 Villanova. It’s other loss came against a very decent South Carolina team. They lost by double-digits to all three of those teams but those are good losses that help prepare a team for future games against quality opponents and the Cowboys really don’t qualify as such. Oklahoma St. virtually has no bench and just one senior to go along with a slew of freshman. Meanwhile, four of the Explorers top five scorers are seniors. They have as many as six players that are capable of putting up double-digits. They have experience and they absolutely will not be intimidated in this setting. The Cowboys have shown nothing to warrant this price and may even lose this one outright. Play: #721 La Salle +9½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
JACK JONES
Boise State -8 over Portland State
I'll lay the wood here with Boise tonight. The Broncos have scored 77.7 ppg this year on 47.3% shooting against teams giving up just 71.4 ppg on 43.9%. I think they light up the scoreboard tonight when you look at Portland State who has allowed teams to score 82.7 ppg on 50.4% shooting when those teams average 73.1 and 44.4%.
Portland State has lost two in a row and they haven't been pretty, going down 80-101 at St. Mary's and losing to Washington State 69-93 on Saturday. Boise is coming of fa 96-59 win over Houston Baptist on Saturday so they do have some confidence in themselves and a good feeling from the blowout win.
John Ryan
Pacific at Santa Clara
Play: Santa Clara
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Santa Clara as they take on Pacific set to start at 10:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that Santa Clara will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. AiS shows an 84% probability that Pacific will shoot between 40 and 46% from the field. Note that they are just 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons.?Based on my research I believe that Santa Clara can win this game SU. This notion is reinforced by the fact they are 13-4 against the money line (+8.7 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.?Pacific HC Thomason is just 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) after playing a game as a road underdog while employed at Pacific. Take Santa Clara.
John Martin
1 Unit on Indiana Pacers -1
The Pacers as a small home favorite Monday is a very generous line, and I'll gladly capitalize. Indiana is 19-8 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers are 15-5 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 15-30 ATS in their last 45 games following a close home loss by 3 points or less. Knowing that the Bucks are just 2-9 on the road this season, it's an obvious choice tonight folks. Cash in with the Pacers as the underdog.
Info Plays
3* on Clippers/Spurs OVER 193.5
Reasons why this game goes OVER the Total
1.) System Play. We'll Play Over - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - after allowing 105 points or more against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games. This is a 40-12 OVER System hitting 76.9% since 1996.
2.) The Clippers are scoring over 100 PPG on the road while the Spurs are scoring 105 PPG at home. San Antonio has topped the 100-point mark in 7 consecutive games entering play Monday. Bet the OVER.
Scott Delaney
Long Beach State at Loyola Marymount
Loyola's lil mini-win streak comes to a halt tonight, as it will fall in non-conference play to the Big West Conference preseason favorite 49ers, who have won back-to-back outings with a 96-61 thrasking of Cal State Monterey Bay and a 75-62 triumph over Utah State this past Friday at home in the Pyramid.
The Beach has become accustomed to taking its show on the road; coming into tonight to play its 11th game of the season, the 49ers have played all but three of those someplace other than in Long Beach.
I know the Lions have overachieved already, exceeding last year's win total. But playing too many youngsters is going to catch up with Loyola, as you'll see tonight.
Lay the low road chalk with this one, and bank on the Niners.
3♦ LONG BEACH STATE
Tony Weston
The Browns come through with the outright win just like I said they would at the Chiefs.
I’m handing you another winner tonight as I’m taking the Bucks on the road at the Indiana Pacers.
The Bucks come into this game an impressive 15-10 ATS this season and have covered in 5 of their last 6 games overall.
Now they battle a Pacers team that’s been losing money left and right. Coming into tonight’s game the Pacers have covered in just 5 of their last 17 games and have covered in just 2 of their last 7 games at home.
At home this year, Indiana is actually getting outscored by about a point per game (98.6-97.8). That’s important considering the Pacers are installed as about a 1 1/2 point favorite.
Take whatever points you can get and take the Bucks on the road in this one as they flirt with the outright win.
3♦ BUCKS
Craig Davis
Tonight's comp play is in college hoops as I'm backing the UTEP Miners. This team has been up and down so far this year, but they're catching the Oklahoma Sooners in a great spot. OU is still trying to find its identity. They originally thought they were going to be a defensive-minded team, but they can't stop anyone. So over the past few games they've just tried to outscore their opponent, and it almost came back to haunt them against Northern Colorado on Saturday. Late in the fourth quarter the Sooners owned a 10-point lead, but couldn't stop UNCO from hitting threes and easy twos; they couldn't grab defensive boards; they couldn't hit free throws. Add that up and UNCO nearly pulled the upset, losing a heartbreaker, 80-79.
UTEP won't be so kind if OU decides to let them outrebound them, and the Miners won't miss the kind of free throws the Sooners did Saturday. UTEP got my attention when they took Ole Miss to overtime last week. Granted, they did end up losing that game by 10, but just forcing overtime with a very good team from the SEC was enough to make me realize they might be better than I originally thought. This one comes down to the wire and I wouldn't be surprised, in the least, if UTEP pulled off the SU upset.
2♦ UTEP
Chris Jordan
N.Y. Giants at WASHINGTON
There were plenty of fireworks yesterday, why not expect the same tonight between a pair of old friends getting together. I actually have this game falling closer to 50, and expect to see a great game.
If you want to know who I think wins this one, check out my fourth-straight 300♦ winner, available now!!!
Washington has officially begun the new regime, as front office changes have this team playing with a different outlook. The coaches are coaching with a sense of urgency to keep their jobs, while the players sense a wole new feel throughout the organization.
Don't get me wrong, this is still this year's hapless bunch out of the NFC East, and I'm still not a fan of Jim Zorn. I still believe the players don't care that much for him either, based on things I've seen, read and personally heard.
Doesn't mean they can't score points - especially when looking at their last three games.
As for the Giants, they need this win to keep pace with the Cowboys and Eagles, and the one thing about the Redskins' defense I can knock is how it allows the big play to take place. Eli Manning - my least favorite quarterback in the league - can his game vertical and open things up.
Trust me, this is a big game for both teams for entirly different reasons.
4♦ GIANTS/REDSKINS OVER