Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 26

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

North Carolina/ Missouri Under 53: The Carolina defense had struggled for parts of the year, but they really turned it on down the stretch as they allowed just 19.3 ppg and 320.3 ypg in their last 3 games. Missouri comes in 57th in passing (236.8 ypg), but their bread and butter is their running games that ranks 11th putting up 236.5 ypg. The Tarheels can stop the run as they have allowed just 106.2 ypg on the ground (14th) and they have allowed just 3.3 ypc (15th), so i don't expect the Tigers to get those big explosive running plays they had this year, also the Tigers se the run to set up the pass and if they don't get the running game going then they may have to start throwing on first down more and that is not their game. The Tigers did put up 32.2 ppg on the year, but just 24 ppg in their last 3 games. The Heels also had problems scoring down the stretch, as they put up just 19.3 ppg in their last 3 games. The Heels can throw the ball (249.2 ypg), but this Missouri Defense has been tough of late vs the pass, allowing just 184 ypg through the air in their last 3 games. Overall this is a tough Missouri defense that started the year on a good note and ended on a good note, but they did have a 3 game stretch in the middle of the year vs Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Baylor, in which they allowed 39.3, but the Heels do not have as strong an offense as those teams do. Both of these teams really pride themselves on defense and while they have struggled at times this year, I see both units stepping up big and keeping this one Under the total.

Scott Spreitzer

Raptors at Cavaliers
Prediction: Under

Toronto certainly struggled on the defensive end last season, but with new coach Dwane Casey in place, I suspect we'll see much more attention paid to shutting teams down. They'll face a Cleveland team that ought to help with a lower scoring effort. The Cavs have high hopes for their rookies, but I expect new PG Kyrie Irving to struggle on the offensive end more often than not in the early portion of the season. Irving shot just 34.6% in the Cavs' 2 preseason games, combined. Neither team has a lot to rely on when it comes to scoring. Arguably the best offensive threat in the game, Toronto's Andrea Bargnani may be in for a bit of an adjustment period after being moved from center to forward. He hit just 11 of 31 (35%) combined, in his 2 preseason games against the Celtics. The Raptors managed just 75 and 71 points in the two "warmup" games, but did hold Boston to 76 and 81 points as Casey begins to institute his defensive philosophy. Antawn Jamison is the leading returning scorer for the Cavs (18 ppg last year). He has some new faces around him and it's going to take some time as mentioned earlier. I expect both teams to struggle on the offensive end in this match-up and with Toronto's new mindset on the defensive end, I'm playing the contest to stay Under the posted total.

Rob Vinciletti

New York Islanders vs. New York Rangers
Play: New York Rangers

While this game is too high to unit rate we will use it as a the free play as the Rangers are on a roll again and have won 4 straight including a win just a few days ago vs the Islanders. The Rangers have won 6 of 7 in Division play, 11 of 14 after scoring 4 or more and 7 of 9 off 3+ wins. The Islanders are 5-13 with revenge and have dropped 7 of 9 in Division play and 12 of 18 vs winning teams. In the series the Rangers have won 5 of the last 7 here. Look for them to chalk up another win as they continue to surprise this season.

BEN BURNS

Oilers @ Canucks
PICK: Under 5.5

These teams last faced each other back in October. That 10/25 meeting had an O/U line of five. (It 'pushed' finishing with exactly five goals, a 3-2 win by the Oilers.) Tonight's O/U line is 5.5. I feel that's providing us with solid value.

Call it a "turkey hangover," if you will, but I've noticed that NHL games on Boxing Day have a tendency to be rather low-scoring. While past results certainly aren't always an indicator of what will happen, I do think the results from the past few seasons are likely more than coincidence.

Last year, on "Boxing Day" the 'under' went a remarkable 9-0-2. A closer look shows that ALL 11 games produced five or fewer combined goals. A whopping eight of those games finished with exactly five goals.

The previous year (2009) the 'under' was 7-4-2 the day after Christmas. Nine of those 13 games finished with five or fewer goals. Nine of them finished with exactly five.

In 2008, six of nine games on Boxing Day produced five or fewer combined goals.

The Canucks entered the Christmas Break off a 3-1 loss. Note that they allowed just two goals in their previous two games combined. They've now allowed three or fewer goals in nine of their last 10, allowing four in the other. During that 10-game stretch, they're allowing a mere 1.9 goals per game.

The Oilers are off a 4-1 win in their last game. That was their third straight game which finished with exactly five goals. Five of their last six have produced five or fewer combined goals.

Not surprisingly, the 'under' is a lucrative 7-2 on the season, when they've played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Consider the Under 5.5 goals.

Jim Feist

Nets vs Wizards
Pick: Under

The Washington Wizards look to finally climb out of the division cellar this season, after occupying that spot for the previous three years. The Wizards look to build around guard John Wall. Wall had a great freshman season in the NBA, averaging 16.4 ppg and 8.3 assists. Wall finished second in the Rookie of the year voting to Blake Griffin. The Nets are a lame duck team actually. Have to wonder what kind of fan support they will receive this year considering the team is moving to Brooklyn next year. The Nets will be without center Brooke Lopez who is lost for at least a month a a half with a broken foot. Kris Humphries returns to the Nets after a offseason that some might call colorful. In fact, Humphries was voted the most hated player in the NBA. Maybe it was the Kardashians stuffing that ballot box. While both teams look for improvement this year, I don't see either doing much better than their 2010-11 editions did. I like UNDERs early int he season and that's what I'm sticking with tonight in Washington.

SPORTS WAGERS

Missouri –6 over North Carolina

Larry Fedora was recently introduced as North Carolina's new head coach and a coaching change often serves as a distraction during bowl preparations. The Tar Heels also have a slew of highly-regarded NFL draft prospects who could be prone to losing focus and it appears as though they’ve already lost some of that focus down the stretch with four losses in their last six games. By contrast, Missouri won three in a row to close out the season and they also have some very credible games on its résumé. The Tigers beat then #16 Texas and then #16 again Texas A&M while losing to some other highly ranked schools. The Tigers five losses came against #19 Oklahoma (38-28), #15 Baylor by three, #3 Oklahoma State, #11 K-State (24-17) and Arizona St in OT in week 2. One could argue that the Tigers did not have a bad loss all season. The Tar Heels schedule included three games against ranked teams. They lost them all and their last three wins came against Duke, Wake and Louisville. The Tigers had a much tougher schedule, they’re in better form and after playing the high-octane teams from the Big-12 and not looking a bit out of place, this one could appear in slow motion for them. Play: Missouri –6 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

EZWINNERS

Missouri Tigers -6

North Carolina has a coaching staff that is scrambling to find new jobs as Larry Fedora prepares to take over after the bowl game so the focus of the Tar Heels will be a big question. Missouri is a solid team that played one of the toughest schedules in the nation that included five road games against teams that are going "bowling" this year. The Missouri offense has not missed a beat since star running back Henry Josey went down in week eleven against Texas and Tiger's quarterback James Franklin has the mobility to give the North Carolina pass rush problems. Missouri should handle a North Carolina team that might not have much fight in them. Lay the points.

JR O'Donnell

North Carolina +6

This game which kicks off at 5 PM EST has two teams both 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS. This game being in Shreveport, LA is challenging the Tigers fans, who are known as notorious poor travelers. Obviously UNC is closer, but will they follow the team that in their eyes underachieved and now has a lame duck coach. Both teams were 1-4 SU on the road,, and UNC has the 35th ranked offense (28 ppg), lead by a first year QB who ranks #9 in the nation in passing efficiency, and freshman running back Giovanni Bernard who has broken all freshman records with 1,222 yards (5.4) and is a real stud. Heels have a huge OL (6-5 319), that paved the way for them to run for 147 yards/g.

Heels defense is ranked #28, and the front seven is loaded with NFL caliber players. They back that up will two very good linebackers. Missouri had to replace QB Blaine Gabbert, and brought in James Franklin (wildcat specialist)who has done well and shown he can beat you with his legs and arm. Unfortunately they lost the B12 leading rusher for the season, and Josey was really the heart of the offense, and thus far more pressure will be on Franklin who is known by his teammates as "Frank the Tank". Tigers have 29th offense and #27th defense. These teams are very similar, and why we are grabbing the dog here (UNC +5), and you may get more by shopping it. UNC DL has been lauded by many coaches, and their play could be the difference in the game, and also the fact that the Heels have the edge in skilled players. Power rated @ Unc + 2.44 points

Andre Gomes

Portland -4

In normal conditions, I wouldn't think that Portland is good enough to believe that they should be a 7 points favourite against a team like Philadelphia. However, I believe we have a mismatch working for Portland and the Blazers will simply take advantage of that. I'll talk about that mismatch later.

In fact, I like Philadelphia for this season. They are a well coached team, with early chemistry and well defined rotations. Their perimeter defense is great and they have some depth that will help them during a tough season. However, in order for them to be efficient especially on offense, they need Elton Brand at 100% in order to have a minimally acceptable interior game and remove some pressure from the backcourt, as Iguodala, Holiday and Turner are good players but they are also inconsistent shooters.

The problem that I saw in Philadelphia in their two preseason games against Washington is that I don't think Elton Brand is ready to go for this season. He's clearly not at 100% and besides him in the frontcourt, the Sixers have center Spencer Hawes, rookie big man Nikola Vucevic and forward Thaddeus Young, with none of them being a threat downlow. Without Brand in good form, there will be a lot of pressure on the Sixers backcourt to score and as they aren't good shooters, Philadelphia is primed to jack bad contested shots, especially when Louis Williams will be on the court.

So, Portland is clearly a bad matchup for Philadelphia. The Sixers may have a good and athletic backcourt, but Portland owns an even more athletic backcourt with Wallace, Batum, Felton and Matthews, who will cause the Sixers perimeter players to struggle while looking for good spots to shoot the ball. I watched a preseason game of Portland and the Trailblazers are one of the teams with advanced team chemistry and their starting unit is really a great unit. They might have some problems with their depth as the season goes by, but for this game such problems won't exist. LeMarcus Aldridge played just one preseason game and he may look a bit rusty, but unlike Brand, Aldridge has such a vast offensive arsenal that he doesn't need to be at 100% to perform decently.

Portland may eventually have some defensive problems during this season against powerful frontcourts, however that's not the case of the Sixers, who present a poor frontcourt unit. Portland's building will be rocking tonight and I expect a good win for them. I have the Trailblazers at -7 for tonight, so we have some value on them. Take Portland in here.

Sean “Paddy” Murphy

North Carolina @ Missouri
PICK: Under 53

North Carolina has flown under the radar for much of the season.

Going unnoticed has been the play of the Tar Heels defense, which save for a ugly performance at Clemson back in late October, held up exceptionally well.

They've given up just 3.1 yards per rush and 6.9 yards per pass play this season, and won't necessarily be taking a significant step up in class against Missouri.

The Tigers are probably a little weaker on offense, and a little stronger on defense than their numbers seem to indicate. Playing in the wide open Big 12 will do that to a team.

Despite going up against some of the nation's most explosive offenses over the course of the season, Missouri has held the opposition to 3.6 ypr and 6.7 ypp.

Offensively, the Tigers look outstanding on paper, averaging over 32 points per game on 473 total yards per contest, but again, they were aided by playing in the Big 12, where solid defenses are few and far between.

We've got a pair of teams bring a run-first mentality to the table in this one, and of course that plays into our favor, as it keeps the clock moving.

While both starting QBs have been ultra-efficient this season, I expect this one to come down to which team can run the ball more effectively, and play fundamentally-sound defense.

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +131 over CLEVELAND

Toronto has finally come to grips with reality. No longer are the Raps delusional about loading up on mediocre veterans with long-term deals, nor about winning games without bothering to play defense. With Toronto again last in defensive efficiency in 2010-11, the overmatched Jay Triano was finally shown the door. Replacing him is former Dallas zone defense whiz Dwane Casey, who now must upgrade one of the most historically weak defensive units. With Casey’s signature and attention to detail, expect the Raps to be scrappy, if nothing else. Jose Calderon is a competent offensive operator and he has enough shooters to dish to. Guys like DeMar DeRozan, Ed Davis, Amir Johnson, James Johnson and Andrea Bargnani are capable of scoring 15-20 a game. As for Cleveland, things are better than a year ago. Slowly but surely the Cavs are rebuilding their future and cleaning up their salary cap issues. Top draft choice Kyrie Irving is a nice building block. Fourth overall pick Tristan Thompson will combine with a healthy Anderson Varejao to contribute some energetic defense, rebounding and finishing in the frontcourt. At forward, the Cavs triggered a sweet deal before the lockout by trading J.J. Hickson to Sacramento for Omri Casspi and a first-round pick. At the other forward spot, Antawn Jamison will score 18 points a game and give up 27 until he's traded or bought out, which should be soon, given his advanced age, huge expiring contract and his indifference to playing defense. Both teams are building but the Raps have the deeper bench and better shooters and they have a good chance to open the season with a win. Play: Toronto +131 (Risking 2 units).

Philadelphia +160 over PORTLAND

While everyone is talking Miami, Chicago and New York, the 76ers have been left out of the conversation but they shouldn’t be. The limited practice time before opening day is going to favor teams with continuity and the Sixers are positioned well. The likely nine-man playing rotation will be identical to last season's. Philly sports a fair number of young players who should play better this season, most notably point guard Jrue Holiday and wing Evan Turner. Add Thaddeus Young, Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala and Jodie Meeks into the equation with Doug Collins in his second year and the 76ers could be as high as a #4 seed when playoff time rolls around. Portland had one of the worst first days of training camp in recent memory. Within the span of a few hours, the Blazers found out Brandon Roy had to retire, Greg Oden would hardly play this season and LaMarcus Aldridge was suffering from a heart problem. Presuming this is the last of the bad news (which is never a safe assumption with this team), the Blazers have enough talent to overcome some of this but don’t expect them to come out of the gate blazing, as an adjustment period is inevitable and morale can’t be too high either. Play: Philadelphia +160 (Risking 2 units).

VEGAS EXPERTS

Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves

The Thunder have taken all eight meetings from their Northwest Division rivals these last two seasons, but are at a significant disadvantage tonight in Minnesota having played last night at home, beating Orlando 97-89, and just staying inside the number. The T'wolves will be much improved from last year's last place finish in the Western Conference with #2 overall draft choice Derrick Williams and PG Ricky Rubio joining holdover Kevin Love to form a strong nucleus that new head coach Rick Adelman can build around. Take the points.

Wunderdog

North Carolina vs. Missouri
Play: North Carolina

This is probably a disappointing Bowl for both teams that thought their seasons had much greater potential. But, both finished with identical 7-5 records. The Tigers offense struggled down the stretch where they scored just 24 points per game in their last three. Two of those games were against Texas Tech and Kansas. Kansas gave up 40 points in eight games this season while Texas Tech allowed 34 or more points in their last 10 games except 31 points to Missouri. The Tar Heels lost three of their last five, but two of them were to Virginia Tech and Clemson. Their defense was strong down the stretch allowing just 20.5 ppg, and with a struggling Missouri offense, the points look like the valued side here. The Tar Heels have been a very good choice as a dog where they are now 19-9 ATS in their last 28, while Missouri has been a neutral-site lemon at 3-8 ATS in their last 11, dropping five straight in December. Over the past three seasons, Missouri has laid a goose egg (0-7 ATS) vs. teams that can pass the ball (teams like North Carolina that average 8+ yards per pass attempt). During Gary Pinkel's time at Missouri, the Tigers are just 22-36 ATS vs. teams that complete 58%+ of their passes. Play on North Carolina.

Jack Jones

Los Angeles Lakers -2½

The Los Angeles Lakers should be more heavily favored tonight against the Sacramento Kings. The perception of the Lakers is that they are 'down' this year after losing Lamar Odom. That perception is evident considering the fact that they were an underdog at home to the Chicago Bulls on Christmas Day.

The Lakers clearly should have beaten the Bulls, blowing a double-digit lead late thanks to turnovers and wasted possessions. It was clear from watching them that they are going to be better than expected this season, and that their new additions are underrated. Troy Murphy and Josh McRoberts are going to be key contributors this year.

The Lakers' recent success against the Sacramento Kings lends reason to believe they have a solid chance to bounce back quickly from a tough loss. Los Angeles has won nine of their last 10 meetings with Sacramento.

While the Kings may be a little better this season, this is still a young squad and it's going to take some time for these players to gel together. The lockout certainly didn't help Sacramento's progress. The Lakers have also won nine of their last 10 trips to Sacramento. Bet the Lakers Monday.