Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play, I'm siding with the Rockets as they head to O-town to battle the Magic. You want to try and avoid making a knee-jerk reaction on a team off a bad loss, but the Magic looked awful yesterday against the Thunder, and if I were one of their backers, I'd be extremely concerned in this contest.
I like the Dalmbert move, which will pay dividends against the Magic in this one (he reported somewhat out of shape, but is expected to play). Last year they started an undersized Hayes at center, and now have a legitimate 7-footer manning the paint. Dalembert is lacking offensively, but Lowry and Martin are an underated backcourt duo. Moreover, Scola and Budinger round out a solid top 5. The bench may be an issue, but the same can be said for the Magic.
From a match up standpoint, of course you like Howard and Anderson for the Magic, but the rest of the Magic are seriously deficient defensively. Given that Howard may suffer from a lack of motivation due to his trade status, I'd be very concerned about Orlando in the early going, especially if they falter. Houston overachieved last season, and has some highly ranked draft picks sitting on their roster. Someone needs to step up to bolster the bench, but in the meanwhile, they're catching the Magic at the perfect time and at least now they have some size to counter Howard. Take Houston plus the points over Orlando Monday.
2♦ HOUSTON
Scott Delaney
Let's look at the complimentary winner on the Orlando Magic tonight, as I love the Magic to rebound from last night's loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, by thumping the visiting Houston Rockets in the home opener. Could this be the final home opener for Dwight Howard? According to my sources, it will be, and a deal with the Lakers is on the back burner.
In the meantime, the three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year is still with Orlando, and it's not like him to let up, so I expect to see him fire up his Magic teammates after last night's lackluster peformance in Oklahoma City, against what I think could be the frontrunner in the Western Conference. What I saw last night was a lack of defense, a lot of poor shooting, both of which led to an overall bad showing. It's not indicative of how the Magic play basketball, and you're going to see them correct some of those issues tonight.
Howard was limited to just 11 points, so we're going to see him tally much more tonight, and based on what I saw from Ryan Anderson last night - 25 points with 10 rebounds and an assist - should help boost the Magic tonight.
The Rockets, by the way, are opening up the Kevin McHale-era, as he takes over the coaching reigns. For a moment, it looked as if McHale would have Pau Gasol in the middle, to replace Yao Ming, but the league rejected the three-team trade that involved the Lakers and Hornets. I'm not sure how quick McHale will be able to resurrect Houston's glory days, but it's going to take some time. The Rockets play seven of the first 10 games on the road, so I doubt it'll be anytime soon. Lay the points with the Magic.
4♦ ORLANDO
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Thunder minus the points at Minnesota.
Season-opener for the Timberwolves who should definitely be a better team then they were last year, the only problem tonight is that they are up against one of the early favorites in the West Conference.
Oklahoma City opened with the eight-point win yesterday at home versus Orlando, and they have thoroughly dominated Minnesota in recent meetings.
The Thunder is on a nine-game series winning streak, and they are also a positive 12-5-1 against the spread their last 18 road games dating back to last season.
The Timberwolves are just 2-6 against the spread their last eight games to close out the season from a year ago. With a game already under their belts, look for the Thunder to roll at Minnesota tonight.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Chris Jordan
Oklahoma City (-7) at MINNESOTA
From everything I can see from the preseason, and last night against Orlando, forward Kevin Durant and point guard Russell Westbrook are clearly out to prove there is no friction between the two. Forgotten - ahem, it's supposed to be - is that Westbrook didn’t get the ball enough to Durant in the conference finals against Dallas last season. So with the table set for the Thunder this season, and plenty of young talent, a superb bench and depth in the frontcourt, we're going to see a balanced effort on most nights.
And when they're facing a team like the Timberwolves - who are in rebuild-mode - the Thunder can't afford to let up. They have to take it to Minnesota is they want to be taken seriously. Granted, the arrival of Ricky Rubio, J.J. Barea and Derrick Williams (the No. 2 overall pick), not to mention still having All-Star Kevin Love, the Timberwolves will not be the laughingstock of the league this year. But they're not ready to contend against Oklahoma City. Lay the road chalk.
1♦ OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Wunderdog
Memphis at San Antonio
Pick: Memphis +5
The Memphis Grizzlies made a lot of strides last season. They made a deep playoff run, which included an opening round surprise vs. these same San Antonio Spurs. They took down San Antonio in the first round 4-2, and in the process went 5-0-1 ATS. They gained valuable experience in the process despite the absence of their top player Rudy Gay and his 20 points per game and 6 boards. It will only serve to make them better this season, while the Spurs began to show their age a year ago. Tim Duncan will be 36-years-old in April, his minutes and productivity are in decline, and Manu Ginobli is heading for 35. The Spurs will be hard pressed to win as many games as a year ago, while Memphis is a team with a high ceiling, going against a reputation line tonight in San Antonio. Play on Memphis in this one.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Phoenix/ New Orleans Over 194: Wow to find a Phoenix game with an OU line below 195 points is very rare, especially in their home games. The four times that these teams met last year the OU line was pretty low (all under 200) but the scoring really wasn't as 3 of the 4 games put 206 points on the board. New Orleans is usually a very good defensive team, but they did lose one of their better defenders when Chris Paul left for the Clippers. They did lose a good scorer as well when Paul left, but they did end up landing a very good 22-year-old No. 1 scorer in Eric Gordon (22.3 ppg for the Clipps last year), plus Gordon has done well from long range as he has made an average of 119 3-point field goals over his first three NBA seasons. The Suns actually averaged more on the road (107.2 ppg) than at home (104.6 ppg) last year, but make no mistake this team loves to push the ball at home, as evidenced by the 83.2 shots per game they throw up at home and that is one of the better marks in the league. With Vince Carter and Steve Nash running the show this team will continue to push the ball this year, while at the same time they will also continue to play little defense, especially in the early going. This game should hit 200 points without much problems. KEY TREND--- PHOENIX is 16-4 OVER in home games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Houston/ Orlando Under 200: I know that with short training camps most teams will suffer on defense, but I feel the offenses will suffer last night and it showed for a few teams last nigt, including these Magic as they hit just 37% of their shots (28.6% from long range) and they scored just 89 points in the loss to Oklahoma City last night.. During the offseason the Rockets tried to acquire Lakers star Pau Gasol before the season in a three-team trade that involved Chris Paul, but it was rejected by the league. Instead, Houston will count on an unheralded roster that includes Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry and Kevin Martin as well as former Orlando guard Courtney Lee and newcomer Jonny Flynn. Houston did average 106.1 ppg on the road last year, but it will take some time to for this offense to work out the kinks in the early going. Both teams may try and push the ball, but I still expect poor shooting to win out and keep this one in the lower 190's at best.
Memphis +5.5 Over San Antonio: The Grizzlies will continue to rely on the brute force that got them within a game of the Western Conference finals. PF Zach Randolph (20.1 PPG, 12.2 RPG) and C Marc Gasol (11.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG) make up arguably the best low-post tandem in the NBA, plus they will also be getting Rudy Gay (19.8 & 6.2 rpg) back for this season after he was lost last year to a season ending injury. Memphis also has the luxury of going offense/defense at shooting guard with O.J. Mayo (11.3 PPG) and Tony Allen (1.79 steals PG, 5th in NBA). They Spurs have a strong nucleus with the trio of SG Manu Ginobili (17.4 PPG), PG Tony Parker (17.5 PPG, 6.6 APG) and PF Tim Duncan (13.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG), but the failed to bolster their bench so depth will be a problem this year. Last year the Spurs were dynamite from long range, but it was also their downfall in the playoff loss to the Grizzlies and I expect Memphis to shut them down from long range tonight as well. The Spurs are getting older and having very little depth will hurt them, especially in the early season and vs a young hungry and talented Memphis squad that will look to get out the gate with a win.
2 UNIT PLAY
Denver/ Dallas over 204: Gonna have to go with the Over here. The Mavs last night showed that their defense is truly behind the offense as they allowed 97 points to the Heat through 3 quarters last night. Dallas on offense did pick it up a bit in the 4th quarter and that should carry over to tonight vs a Denver team that usually plays little defense. The Nuggets are a new look team that really doesn't have a go to guy, but the Nuggets were able to re-sign their top two free agents, Nene and Arron Afflalo. Last season, Nene logged a career high-tying 14.5 per game to go with 7.6 rebounds, while also leading the league in shooting percentage. Afflalo added a career-best 12.6 ppg. The Nuggets are in great shape in the backcourt with point guards Ty Lawson and veteran Andre Miller. This is a team that will run alot. I can see this game hitting about 210.
1 UNIT PLAY
New Jersey +4.5 over WASHINGTON: The Wizards were 23-59 last year and according to Vegas they are expecting a worse team as they have an OU on wins of 20. John Wall is the best player on their team and he averaged 16.8 points and 8.3 assists in finishing second in the Rookie of the Year voting, but he turned the ball over far too many times last year. New Jersey will roll out a competitive squad this season even though dreams of landing Dwight Howard fell through. The news was even worse when center Brook Lopez suffered a stress fracture of the fifth metatarsal in his right foot during a preseason contest versus the Knicks last week. Lopez is expected to miss the next four to six weeks because of the problem. the Nets acquired big man Mehmet Okur from Utah in exchange for a second round draft pick in 2015. Okur owns career averages of 13.7 points and 7.1 rebounds in 617 NBA games with Detroit and Utah, and should be a nice piece for point guard Deron Williams as they are attempting to make him happy this year after he avreaged 15.0 PPG, 12.8 APG in 12 games with New Jersey last year. Nets head coach Avery Johnson is 3-1 in season openers and I feel the Nets have enough talent to take down the Wizards here.