Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 27,2010

Marc Lawrence

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder

he Mavs beat the Thunder, 111-103, in this building a month ago so you can expect Kevin Durant and OKC to come hungry like a wolf tonight in Oklahoma City. Despite the earlier loss, the Thunder have owned the series of late, posting an 8-2 ATS log, including a perfect 6-0 ATS with same-season revenge. In fact, the Thunder have been money in the bank when playing with same-season revenge under second-year HC Scott Brooks, logging a brilliant 18-5-1 ATS mark since the middle of last season. With Dallas eying a revenger with Toronto the following night and a curious 3-15-1 ATS before meeting the Raptors expect a New Moon on Monday in OKC. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oklahoma City.

RANDALL THE HANDLE

Saints (10-4) at Falcons (12-2)

Tough to fade the Falcons here as they are undefeated at home and will return here for first time in a month. However, in first meeting, Drew Brees threw for 365 yards in 3-point loss and a similar performance should be good enough to turn the tables in this exciting divisional contest. TAKING: SAINTS +2½

Tom Freese

Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Utah Jazz

Portland is 15-15 straight up this year. The Trailblazers are 3-7-1 ATS their last 11 games off a straight up loss. The Blazers are 3-8-1 ATS their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. Portland is 2-5 ATS their last 7 games overall. The Blazers are 2-5 ATS their last 7 overall. The Blazers are 1-5 ATS their last 6 Western Conference games. The Trailblazers are 0-5 ATS their last 5 games at Utah.

Craig Trapp

Orlando Magic vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: Orlando Magic -6

Big games can really propel a team to hot or cold streaks. The big comeback win for ORL against BOS will give this new look Magic to a winning streak. Can't imagine that ORL doesn't send a message to rest of the league that they are top 5 team in the league. Blowout here as Howard shows off his dominating around the rim game.

JIM FEIST

PORTLAND / UTAH
PLAY: UTAH

The Utah Jazz return home after a successful road trip that saw the club win three of four games. After getting pummeled at New Orleans to start their trip, 100-71, the Jazz bounced back with wins at Milwaukee, Cleveland and Minnesota. Now they return home for one game against the Blazers before hitting the road for two more away games. Meanwhile, Portland saw its modest three game winning streak snapped last time out with a loss at Golden State, 102-109. The road woes seem to be continuing for Portland, now losers of four straight on the road and 11 of the last 13 away from home. Utah has had the upper hand of late in this series, winning and covering the last five meetings, including this year in Portland, 103-94. In fact, Portland has only two wins in Salt Lake City in the last 10 years! Moreover, the Jazz have averaged 107ppg the last nine times these teams have met in Utah. Doesn't bode well for the visitor here on Monday. Portland doesn't have a good road record this year and never seems to play well in Utah. Take the Jazz.

ANDY FANELLI

Dallas invades Oklahoma City tonight minus head coach Rick Carlisle, who remains in the Big D because of recent knee surgery. Assistant coach Dwane Casey leads the team instead and the Mavs, who are 10-1 on the road, including 7 straight wins, reward Carlisle with another win.

Overall the Mavericks are on a 16-1 run. They've scored 100+ points in 14 of those games.

Okie City has won seven of nine, including six of seven at home.

Dirk and Durant battle tonight. Nowitzki is averaging 24.5 points; Durant a league-best 28.1. KD lit up the Mavs in the season's first meeting with 32 points in Dallas, but his team got outscored 36-22 in the fourth quarter and lost 111-103. And that was before the Mavs hit their current peak.

Dirk has averaged 33.8 points in his last eight games against OKC. Durant? Well his 32-point outburst in the first meeting this year was the exception rather than the rule as he's a 37.4% shooter in 11 games lifetime against Dallas with a scoring average of just 18.7 points.

The Mavs have more depth. They have Dirk. They get the win and cover.

3* Dallas

JEFF BENTON

Now onto Monday’s freebie which follows Sunday's free-play winner on the Chiefs (6♦) and we’ll head to the NBA and play the Mavericks as a slight road underdog at Oklahoma City.

Gotta ride the hot hand here, especially as an underdog. Dallas is 23-5 overall and 10-1 on the road, and after seeing their 12-game winning streak snapped in a 103-99 home loss to Milwaukee on Dec. 13, all the Mavs have done is rip off four straight wins against quality opponents (Portland, Phoenix, Miami and Orlando), the latter two on the road.

Dallas’ 10-1 road mark comes with a 10-1 ATS mark, and Dirk Nowitzki and Co. are a perfect 9-0 ATS as an underdog this season, with eight outright upsets. That includes a 111-103 win at Oklahoma City back on Nov. 24, the only previous meeting between these teams this season.

Oklahoma City has won and covered seven of its last nine, going 4-1 SU and ATS at home during this stretch. However, only one of those seven wins came against a quality team, and that was Saturday’s 114-106 win over Denver as a 6 ½-point home chalk. But that victory comes with an asterisk because Carmelo Anthony didn’t play for the Nuggets.

Going back to last year, the Mavs are on ATS runs of 14-3-1 as a road underdog, 34-16-1 overall on the road, 8-0 as a ‘dog of less than five points and 49-24-1 as a road pup of less than five points, and Dallas has also covered in six straight games against elite teams (those with a winning percentage greater than .600. Meanwhile, the Thunder have missed in seven of their last nine when laying less than five points, including five of six at home in that price range.

The Mavs (who have had five days off) continue their success on the road and as an underdog with the outright win.

4♦ DALLAS MAVERICKS

Jorge Gonzalez

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Utah Jazz -7.5

The Utah Jazz have won three straight games and will be looking forward to taking on the Portland Blazers who have dropped 11 of their last 13 games. All-Star Guard Brandon Roy has missed the four games with an injured knee. The home team in the series is 12-4 ATS. This has not been a match-up that Portland has looked forward to having failed to cover the spread in the last five meetings overall and the last five meeting in Salt Lake City. The Jazz have also covered the spread in six of their last seven games after allowing 100 points in their previous game. The Jazz are in rhythm having won four out of their last five games overall. Lay the Points with the Jazz.

Bobby Maxwell

Georgia Tech (+2') vs. Air Force, at Shreveport, La.

Tonight's FREE winner comes from the college gridiron as I go ahead and grab the points with Georgia Tech going up against Air Force in the Independence Bowl from Shreveport, La.

I'm dishing out a 2-0 sweep tonight with my paid plays and 400 Units of profit. My big winner is my 300-Unit NFL play in the Saints-Falcons contest from Atlanta. Throw in a 100-Unit college hoops winner in the UConn-Pitt contest to round out the 2-0 sweep.

For my comp selection, the top two rushing teams in college football meet in the Independence Bowl tonight, but defensively, I think these teams are a world apart. Georgia Tech has faced much stiffer tests than Air Force and will come out with this one. Grab the points with the Yellow Jackets.

If you look at just the stats, the Yellow Jackets do give up more points than the Falcons, but look at who those points came against and you understand why. While Georgia Tech is taking on teams like Miami, Virginia Tech and Clemson, the Falcons are playing teams like UNLV, New Mexico and Army.

Air Force finished the season with three straight wins, but it came against the aforementioned foes. Those are three of the worst teams in college football. So that’s nothing to be too proud of. The Falcons didn’t do anything unexpected this year, beating the teams they were supposed to and losing to teams that were better. At the betting window, they were just 2-7 ATS to finish the year.

Georgia Tech QB Josh Nesbitt is listed as questionable as he’s coming back from a broken arm. I suspect we’ll see both Nesbitt and sophomore Tevin Washington. RB Anthony Allen will have a huge night, as he’s put up 138.3 yards per game over the last four.

The Yellow Jackets are on ATS runs of 9-4-1 after a loss, 5-2 as a ‘dog and 4-1-1 as a ‘dog of up to three points. Air Force is on ATS slides of 1-6 as a favorite and 0-5 after a straight-up win. I’ll grab the points with Georgia Tech in this one.

3♦ GEORGIA TECH

Chuck O'Brien

Georgia Tech vs. Air Force (-2'), at Shreveport, La.

For Monday’s complimentary selection, take Air Force and lay the points against Georgia Tech in the Independence Bowl.

While Air Force closed out the regular season with three straight blowout wins (42-22, 48-23, 35-20), Georgia Tech limped to the finish line by losing four of its last five (the Yellow Jackets’ only win was a 30-20 home victory over lowly Duke).

Georgia Tech was a disappointing 6-6 this season, and its last four victories came against Middle Tennessee State (from the Sun Belt Conference), and three ACC foes (Virginia, Wake Forest and Duke) that went a combined 10-26 this year (and all three went 1-7 in the ACC). On top of that, the Yellow Jackets come into this game likely without starting QB Josh Nesbitt (who missed the final 3½ games with a broken arm and is unlikely to return tonight) and without four key defensive players (ruled academically ineligible). And this is a defense that gave up 30.4 ppg over its final five contests.

Air Force went 8-4 this season, with three losses by a total of 10 points to Oklahoma, San Diego State and Utah (three bowl teams that are a combined 30-9), and another at TCU (which is 12-0 and playing in the Rose Bowl).

Both these teams run the triple-option to near perfection – Georgia Tech (327 rushing ypg) and Air Force (318 rushing ypg) rank first and second in the nation in rushing – and even though the Yellow Jackets have better defensive stats against the run than Air Force, the Falcons have faced much more explosive offenses than Georgia Tech (BYU, Oklahoma, Navy, San Diego State TCU and Utah).

Finally, Air Force pounded Houston 47-20 in last year’s Armed Forces Bowl, while Georgia Tech has dropped five straight bowl games (1-4 ATS).

Chuckster calls for another double-digit Air Force bowl win, 31-17.

4♦ AIR FORCE

Scott Delaney

Georgia Tech vs. Air Force (-2'), at Shreveport, La.

We have the top two rushing offenses going at it tonight in Shreveport, Louisiana? You thinking we're going to see some time management?

I am.

And remember this, Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson has been a master at defeating Air Force in the past, when he was coaching Navy and those two powerhouse rushing teams collided.

I know the Falcons come in averaging more than 30 points per game, but again, Johnson has experience in stopping this offense.

Johnson will likely use his top-ranked rushing offense to limit Air Force's touches, and his experience to maintain the Falcons' drives.

As for Air Force, this is a game it'll feel it has the upper hand, since it closed the year out strong with three straight victories, and the Jackets come in having lost four of their last five, not to mention without their star quarterback Josh Nesbitt, who has a broken forearm. His status is unclear, but I doubt he'l play.

This one will be close, so I'm going to take this one UNDER.

1♦ GEORGIA TECH/AIR FORCE UNDER

Chris Jordan

George Washington at UAB (-13)

I've been bragging about the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers all season, telling you we'd be making plays on them at the right times during throught the campaign.

This is one of those nights.

Sitting at 9-2, this game will determine whether or not UAB remains unbeaten at Bartow Arena for a fifth-straight season in non-conference play. Not too shabby since coach Mike Davis took over, as his troops are 31-0 in regular season, non-conference contests heading into tonight.

Overall, the streak stretches to 37 games.

I know leading scorer Cameron Moore is nursing a sore ankle, but he's had time to rest it, and by getting treatments over the weekend and leading into tonight, he should be ready to roll for two hours.

I fully expect to see the Colonials press, and the Blazers have become accustomed to breaking that press and making something happen. This will be a big mistake by G-Dub, and the Blazers will make them pay.

Look for Aaron Johnson's defensive style, Moore's points and Anthony Criswell's contributions to be the key to covering this number.

2♦ UAB

Craig Davis

Connecticut (+7) at PITTSBURGH

I'm taking the UConn Huskies plus the generous number at Pitt.

Yes, I do believe these are two of the best teams in the Big East right now and both will likely finish in the top 20 at the end of the year... but tonight the Huskies will keep this game very close and cover the point spread.

I realize Pitt has dominated this series recently, but this UConn team is a lot different than anyone thought they'd be... but it shouldn't be a surprise as Jim Calhoun is one of the best coaches and recruiters in the game.

Pitt also isn't quite the same team as they have been in the past when they had guys like DeJuan Blair and Sam Young. I'm not saying they aren't talented... they clearly are... but they are a different type of team that I believe UConn matches up well against.

The Huskies are a perfect 10-0 to start the season, due in large part to guard Kemba Walker who is currently acting as this team's big "go to" guy in the clutch. UConn has beaten some very good teams outright as pretty big underdogs (MSU and Kentucky come to mind), and they're doing it with defense, allowing just over 61 PPG on the season.

The Huskies are 6-2 ATS on the road in their last eight, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after a SU win and the road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series. I'll take the points with the Huskies on the road tonight over Pittsburgh.

3♦ CONNECTICUT

Joel Tyson

New Orleans at ATLANTA

Free play winner tonight is the Over in your Monday night contest.

New Orleans comes into this game having played Overs in 4 of their last 5 outings, while 2 of Atlanta's last 3 games have slipped Over the posted price. I don't think there is any doubt that a pair of dome-oriented teams will be glad they are not playing outside in the blustery winter air that is swirling through Atlanta this holiday season, and I don't think there is any doubt the teams will oblige the fans with plenty of offense.

The first meeting between the teams in New Orleans did go Over the total, as have 5 of the last 6 overall series meetings.

Look for offense to rule the roost again tonight, and for New Orleans and Atlanta to combine to go Over the posted total.

4♦ OVER

Stephen Nover

Orlando at NEW JERSEY (+6)

I cashed on my last NBA comp selection getting an easy outright victory from underdog Miami against the Los Angeles Lakers on Christmas.

This is a prime letdown spot for the revamped Magic, who are going through a transition stage after a couple of major trades. The Magic have been up posting consecutive victories against San Antonio this past Thursday and knocking off Boston on Christmas Day.

Don't be surprised if the Magic are now down for this game.

New Jersey is spunky at home. The Nets have covered seven of their past nine home contests. The Nets have won three of their last five games. Orlando is 3-11 ATS versus opponents with a losing record.

The Nets hosted Orlando last month and lost 91-90 when Jameer Nelson made a basket with 4.1 seconds left.

New Jersey has improved its defense ranking 14th in fewest points and in defensive field goal percentage. Orlando has been held under 90 points in three of its last five games.

If you discount the 123 points they put up on San Antonio in a blowout, the Magic are averaging 89 points in their last 10 games. They aren't strong offensively enough yet to lay this big of a road number.

The Nets have been idle since Wednesday, giving them plenty of rest and preparation time for this matchup.

1♦ NEW JERSEY

Derek Mancini

Dallas at OKLAHOMA CITY (-2)

This is a dangerous spot for the red-hot Mavs, coming off back-to-back big wins over the Heat and Magic, and having last played on Tuesday, this is a schedualing nightmare. Rust will definately play a factor, as nothing disrupts the continuity of a win streak more than too much idle time. Offense was clicking, defense was clicking, now it remains to be seen if they can pick up where they left off.

Thunder on the other hand, played two days ago, and continues to play great basketball, beating the Nuggets 114-106 Christmas Day. They've won 7 of their L9, and that includes 4 of their L5 at home. They're especially good on offense at home, where they score 106.6 ppg this season, on 47% shooting. That will be key, because if they get off to a fast start, they can really take advantage of the Mavericks rust.

Finally, at 10-1 ATS on the road, at some point the oddsmakers have to get wise. You'd think that after beating the Heat and Magic on the road, the guys in Vegas would be inclined to make the Mavs the favorite here - that is unless, they agree that the extended idle time may actually do more harm than good. Dallas beat OKC in their only other meeting this season, due to the free throw and rebounding disparity... Look for a much more focused effort from the Thunder tonight. Take Oklahoma City over Dallas Monday.

3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY

Michael Cannon

New Orleans at MINNESOTA (+4)

Take the points with Minnesota tonight at home over New Orleans for your free Monday winner.

The Timberwolves have lost the last six to the Hornets, but they are 4-1 ATS in the last five.

Both teams played last night, so there’s no advantage in the fatigue category, but Minnesota has fared better this year when playing without rest.

The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS when playing at home on the second of back-to-back games.

New Orleans got off to that great start this year but has largely been a .500 team since.

Take the points with the Timberwolves as they stay within the number.

3♦ MINNESOTA

Karl Garrett

Philadelphia (+3') at GOLDEN STATE

NBA free play tonight is to back the 76ers at Golden State.

Philadelphia's 8 game road trip now stands at 2-2 straight up after Philly upended Denver last night on the highway, and I think the Sixers still have enough gas left in the tank to take care of a Golden State team that is just 2-7 against the spread their last 9 at home.

Series numbers show Philly having won the last pair, and 3 of the last 4 meetings straight up. The Sixers have also covered in 3 of their last 4 meetings.

The matchups look good again for the Philadelphia crew, so grab any points they are giving and look for the Sixers to be there.

1♦ PHILADELPHIA

Rocketman

Washington @ Houston
Play: Houston -9.5

Washington is 14-28 ATS last 3 years when playing back to back days. Washington is 1-6 ATS this year after a non-conference game. Houston is 16-6 ATS this year against poor defensive teams allowing 99 points per game or more. Washington is 0-14 SU on the road this year where they are allowing 110.7 points per game. Wizards are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. Wizards are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Wizards are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Wizards are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games playing on 0 days rest. Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Dallas Mavs +1.5

This matchup has been dominated by the underdog in terms of the point spread with the team catching points going 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. With this in mind, it is certainly worth noting that there has been no deadlier dog than the Dallas Mavs this season. Dallas is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a road underdog this season, winning these games by 6.2 points on average. The Mavs posted an 8-point victory at OKC as a 4-point dog last month. The Mavs are 10-1 SU and ATS in all road games this season. Looking back, they are an outstanding 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games. They are also 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 road games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Take the Mavs.