Tony George
Georgia Tech vs. Air Force
Play: Air Force -3
Georgia Tech has 5 players suspended or partly suspended for this game. GT has an offense that scored 24 ppg their last 3 games, AF scored 41. Air Forces defense is better and they have more to play for here as 6-6 Georgia Tech comes in here limping with their tail between their legs. I repsect Paul Johnson as head coach for GT and his post season prowess, but he comes in short handed here and I think AF is a solid team that can trade points and put up another TD more than the Yellow Jackets.
Sean Murphy
Saints @ Falcons
Pick: Over 49.5
We cashed with the over in the first matchup between these NFC South rivals this season, and there's no reason not to go back to the well on Monday night.
The Saints offense has really come around in the past month-and-a-half. After scoring 25 points or less in seven of their first eight games this season, they've now scored at least 30 points in five of their last six contests.
Atlanta has held four of its last five opponents to 18 points or less, but keep in mind, three if not four of those teams will not be playoff-bound. The Falcons defensive weakness is against the pass, an area where we all know the Saints excel.
Atlanta's offense is firing on all cylinders right now, having scored 65 points in its last two games. The Falcons have been held under 26 points only once over their last eight contests. They've scored at least 25 points in four of their last five matchups with the Saints - the only game in which they didn't, Chris Redman was filling in for an injured Matt Ryan at quarterback.
The Saints defense was gashed by Ray Rice and the Ravens ground game last Sunday, allowing over 200 rush yards. It's a defense that's been getting plenty of positive press, but I still don't see it - they've allowed at least 27 points in three of their last four games.
The over is 5-1 in the last six matchups in this series, and again, the only game that didn't go over the total featured Chris Redman starting at quarterback for the Falcons. Even that contest still managed to reach 49 total points. This showdown is being pegged as a shootout, and that's exactly what it should turn out to be. Take the over.
Ben Burns
Clippers @ Kings
Pick: Over 190.5
This season's first two meetings between these teams have both fallen below the total. Those were both at LA though. With tonight's "rematch" being played at ARCO Arena in Sacrmento, I expect a higher-scoring contest.
The Clippers have seen the 'over' go a lucrative 8-3 on the road this season. (Stats don't include a couple of 'pushes' which landed exactly on the number.) Their games away from LA are averaging 203.6 points.
Looking back further and we find that the 'over' is 58-35 (minus 'pushes') in LA road games, the past few seasons. That includes an outstanding 20-5 mark when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 190 to 194.5 range.
The fact that the Clippers are playing the second of back to back games is also worth mentioning. They've seen the 'over' go 32-19 in that situation, the past few seasons.
The last meeting between these teams, here at Sacramento, produced 210 points, a 116-94 victory for the Kings. That game had an O/U line in the low 200s. Tonight's is considerably lower and I feel that provides us with solid value. Consider the OVER
SPORTS WAGERS
New Orleans +2½ over ATLANTA
Tough to fade the Falcons here as they are undefeated at home and will return here for first time in a month. However, in first meeting, Drew Brees threw for 365 yards in 3-point loss and a similar performance should be good enough to turn the tables in this exciting divisional contest. The Saints have not played to their potential while the Falcons may have already peaked. We also don’t like the fact that the money has been coming in on the Dirty Birds since the end of yesterday’s action and that’s a sign that a lot of people are using this one as their “bailout game”. Of course this one can go either way, as both teams are quality but in crunch time, we’ll gladly side with the better QB in a huge game. Play: New Orleans +2½ (No bets).
Air Force –3 over Georgia Tech
Teams that limp into Bowl games have a horrible record over the years and that’s precisely the case with the Yellow Jackets. Here’s a team that was 5-2 and 3-1 in the ACC before they ended up losing four of its last five games. There are other issues too for Tech. Four Tech players, including two projected starters, will not play because of various academic issues and aside from being a physical loss it’s a psychological one too. The Yellow Jackets only win down the stretch was a 10-point victory over Duke. They really didn’t have a signature win all year and one really has to wonder where its motivation will come from. This is one of the least important Bowl games of the season. The Falcons reeled off three in a row to end the season. They also played Utah, TCU and Oklahoma this year and lost by just five to the Utes and by just three to the Sooners. That’s not to say that they’re the better team, as these two pretty much mirror one another in that they are #1 and #2 in the nation in rushing yards. The kicker, however, is that Air Force is very likely going to be the more motivated team and they also come in with a lot more momentum and that’s very significant. Play: Air Force –3 +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Dallas +1.12 over OKLAHOMA CITY
After being the “feel good” story of the year a season ago, the Thunder has kept that going this season with a very impressive 21-10 record thus far. That winning record of 11 games over .500 has their stock way overvalued and it’s time to start wagering against these hosts because they have developed a lot of bad habits. When a team is losing they try and correct those bad habits but it’s a different story when they’re winning. The Thunder are careless with the ball, they allow the opposition a ton of easy points in the paint and they usually get outrebounded too. A close look shows that their wins have come against a lot of bad teams. Most recently the Thunder have beaten Denver (minus Melo), Charlotte, Sac, Houston, Cleveland, New Orleans, Minnesota, Golden State and New Jersey. Ok City’s only good win over its last 13 games was against the Hornets. When they played winning teams over the last 13 games, Chicago, New York and Phoenix, they lost them all. Now they’re going to play one of the top five teams in the Association. Dallas has back-to-back wins over Miami and Orlando. They’ve won four in a row and they have one loss over its last 17 games. They’ve beaten the best and the only reason they’ll lose this one is if they’re a little flat after the break. That’s a risk worth taking because they’re so much better than the Thunder and if all things are equal, they’ll roll over this very overrated club. Play: Dallas +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
MEMPHIS –5½ over Toronto
Speaking of bad habits and one need not look further than the Raps. Toronto has a lot of skilled players and good shooters but they lack the heart and determination to be a winning team. When they blow a lead and lose in the final seconds they’re out there smiling and hugging the opposition after the game like they’re just happy to be there. They play absolutely no defense at all and give up more easy buckets than any team in the league. The Raps are entertaining but so are the Warriors and Toronto is the Eastern Conference version of the Warriors. The Raps are just 3-10 away from the Air Canada Center and the reason they’re not getting more points here is that the Grizz is just 13-17. That has created an underlay. Memphis got off to a horrible 4-9 start. They have a recent home loss to the Nets just before the X-Mas break and that, too, takes away some of their credibility. However, they went into Indiana last night and whipped the Pacers by 14. They also have a recent OT loss in San Antonio they’re really playing a lot better these days. Memphis is a quality club that is big and should dominate the Raps both in the paint and on the boards. The Raps are likely going to be without its best player, center Andrea Bargnani and they could run into some serious problems in this contest. Jump on this one early. Play: Memphis –5½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +1.46 over COLUMBUS
What happened to the Jackets? This team has sunk like a sinking ship at there’s no end in sight. On November 24, Columbus had 14 wins and six losses. They were playing hard and they looked to a team that was capable of doing some damage. Today they sit at 17 wins and 15 losses. They’ve been blown out on more than a few occasions and have done a complete 180 since that strong start. How did they go from that to this? They came off the break looking for a fresh start but lost again in Chicago, 4-1. Losing is highly contagious and the Jackets have the bug. Mathieu Garon went last night and there’s a chance that Steve Mason will go tonight. The Jackets have been very reluctant to use their #1 goaltender because he’s been a disaster this season. Do they go to Mason tonight or right back with Garon. It’s like whatever decision they do make will likely turn out bad. We’ve been down on the Wild all year and know for sure that they’re not as good as their record indicates. However, they’ve been very opportunistic and the bottom line here is value. The Jackets can’t get out of their own way while the Wild win games. Big overlay. Play: Minnesota +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
Buffalo +1.26 over CALGARY
The Sabres are having a rough year already and now they’ve lost perhaps their best player in Derek Roy. That loss has many thinking that Buffalo is finished but often teams will rise to the occasion and dig a little deeper when adversity strikes. The Sabres are still a talented team with perhaps the #1 goaltender in the game so don’t count them out just yet. Besides, who the hell are the Flames? Here’s a team that struggles to score goals and is only three points out of dead last in the West. Mikka Kiprusoff is getting worse every year and can usually be counted on for at least one softy every game. Kiprusoff has a save % of .866 over his last four games and none over .900 during that stretch. The Flames have dropped three of four with two losses to Minnesota and one to Columbus and they just don’t warrant being this price over the Sabres. Play: Buffalo +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Matt Fargo
Connecticut vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -7
This is a tough spot for Connecticut in its Big East opener. Not only is it taking place on the road in a very hostile environment, but this is the first true road game of the season for the Huskies. They played very well in Hawaii in winning the Maui Invitational but that was on a neutral floor and this one will be much more difficult. Connecticut is very young and as a matter of fact, it is the eighth youngest team in the nation and a team that green will struggle here. Pittsburgh has one loss on the season and that came against Tennessee. It was considered a home game but not a true one as it was played at the CONSOL Energy Center while this one is at the Petersen Events Center where the Panthers are 9-0 on the season. Connecticut represents Pittsburgh’s eighth opponent at the Petersen Events Center which ranks among the nation’s top-5 teams and it is a perfect 7-0 in those previous seven games and 12-4 against teams ranked in the top 25 since it opened in November, 2002. This line is a big one for a lower ranked team to be giving to a higher ranked team and the public is all over Connecticut. The Panthers fall into a great situation as well. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging 76 or more ppg and coming off three straight double-digit wins by going up against teams allowing 63 or fewer ppg. This situation is 39-11 ATS (78 percent) since 1997. The Panthers are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams outscoring opponents by four or more ppg. 3* Pittsburgh Panthers
John Ryan
Orlando Magic vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: New Jersey Nets +6
5* graded play on the New Jersey Nets set to host the high flying Orlando Magic set to start at 7:00 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that New Jersey will lose this game by six or fewer points and has a very real chance to win the game. Adding a 2* amount using the money line to this 5* play on the line offers an exceptional money making opportunity. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 63-27 ATS for 70% winners since 1996. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game involving two average defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage between 43.5 and 45.5% and is a good ball handling team committing 14.5 or fewer turnovers per game and now facing a poor pressure defensive team forcing 14.5 or more turnovers per game. 48% of these games played based on the criteria of this system have covered the spread by seven or more points. This underscores my belief that New Jersey can win this game. Pace of Play New Jersey is going to force the tempo and I don’t see Orlando trying to manage the tempo of the game. The model shows that Orlando will attempt between 79 and 83 shots in this game and are just 1-8 ATS in that role this season. Orlando’s Poor Foul Shooting New Jersey is a decent foul shooting team ranking 10th in the NBA hitting 77.7% of the charity stripe shots. Orlando has not done well against teams like this noting they are 2-14 ATS when facing good free throw shooting teams making >=76% of their attempts this season. Orlando ranks 29th among the 30 NBA teams hitting just 69.1% of their free throw shots. The ‘new look’ Orlando Magic have had a great run recently, but this is just not a good spot for them. They are still a 18-12 team with lots or work needed to develop into a contender type team. Take New Jersey.
Jack Jones
New Orleans Hornets -4
The New Orleans Hornets are showing solid value as just a 4-point favorite over the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves Monday. Both teams played last night, with the Hornets winning by 7 over the Hawks while the Timberwolves beat the Cavaliers by a single point for a rare win. Minnesota is just 7-24 this season and have won back-to-back games only once this year. I don't expect them to put together only their second winning streak of the season tonight against a very good New Orleans club that is 18-12 this year.
This play falls under a system that is 42-14 (75%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home underdogs (MINNESOTA) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after a close win by 3 points or less. Minnesota is giving up a ridiculous 109.6 PPG this season and getting outscored by 7.2 PPG on average. The Hornets are allowing just 91.7 PPG overall and 93.9 PPG on the road. Minnesota is 17-35 ATS in home games after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996. The Timberwolves are 7-18 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Hornets Monday.
Ray Monohan
Mavericks vs. Thunder
Play: Mavericks +1½
The Dallas Mavericks will look to win their fifth straight game when they take on the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight at the Oklahoma City Arena. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast on NBA League Pass. Dallas has won 15 out of its last 16 games, ended Miami’s 12-game winning streak with a 98-96 win as a 6 ½-point road underdog last Monday night, and knocked off Orlando 105-99 as a 2 ½-point road underdog the following night, but still remains two games in back of San Antonio in the Southwest Division. The Mavericks are currently 23-5 straight-up (17-9-2 against the spread), which is also the second best record in the Western Conference. Dirk Nowitzki continues to lead the way with 24.5 points per game as well as 7.6 rebounds per game. Tyson Chandler leads the team in rebounds with nine per game and Jason Kidd remains as reliable as ever with a team-high 8.8 assists. Dallas is averaging 99.4 points per game; ranking it 16th in the league, but is sixth in points per game allowed; giving up an average of just 93.5. The Mavericks are shooting 47.8 percent from the field, which is second only to Boston and they are hitting 35.9 percent from three-point range. Dallas is 3-1 ATS in its last four games on the road and 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of its last 10 games. Head-to-head, the Mavericks have won three out of the last five SU including a 111-103 win earlier this season as a four-point road underdog. The Thunder have done extremely well against the points and are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Oklahoma City matches up well against Dallas and has had success in the past ATS, but the Mavericks remain one of the hottest teams in the league. Stick with Dallas to come into Oklahoma City Arena and get the outright win as a slight road underdog.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Washington Wizards +9.5
Washington is certainly worth a small wager tonight considering teams that have gone under the total by 30 or more points combined in their last three games, if they are a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a losing record, are 54-22 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have actually won by an average score of 99.4 to 97.9. Plus, this situation has already produced a 7-2 ATS record this season. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Portland Trail Blazers +8
Don't count the Blazers out tonight following a Christmas loss to Golden State. That defeat brought a 3-game winning streak to an end and will provide plenty of motivation this evening. It also ensures that the Blazers won't be nearly as rusty as a Utah team that hasn't played since Dec. 22. Roy is expected to miss, but he hasn't been Portland's go-to guy while playing with a knee injury anyway. The Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Western Conference. The Trail Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the points.
O.C. Dooley
Georgia Tech +3
The key to this pick surrounds current Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson who spent six seasons leading one of the military schools (Navy) where he defeated Air Force in 5 of 6 overall meetings. For pure betting purposes Johnson has been gold in his career (18-6 ATS) when in a near “pick-em” situation (+3/-3 points) which is the case in tonight. This actually marks the second consecutive postseason where a team from the state of Georgia has participated in the Independence Bowl, and in 2009 the Georgia Bulldogs won going away by a 44-20 count against an opponent from the Big 12 conference. Today marks the 14th consecutive season that Georgia Tech has participated in a postseason Bowl game which just happens to be the fourth-longest active streak in the land. The problem with the Yellow Jackets as that they have dropped their last 5 Bowls on the scoreboard, including the last three years by a combined score (102-45) which has been humiliating. Georgia Tech a year ago was actually in one of the BCS-sanctioned Bowls (Orange), so one would think this is a huge “step down” for them but they are facing an opponent from a “non”-AQ conference that plays a very SIMILAR style of football. This game features the nation’s top pair of rushing offenses and Georgia Tech actually has averaged 10 yards MORE on the ground, as opposed to Air Force who wrapped up their regular season against horrible opposition (UNLV, New Mexico). I personally am not shocked that Georgia Tech has been installed as an underdog considering they limped down the stretch losing 4 of the past 5 outings. In addition the Yellow Jackets are without their #1 starting quarterback Josh Nesbitt who broke his forearm at the beginning of November. The Jackets due to academics will be without 4 players including their lead wide receiver and a defensive starter at safety. Due to a curfew violation, Georgia Tech in just the past week has had to SUSPEND 3 players for the “opening half”. Despite all of those negatives, Georgia Tech still has a great head coach and in his career Paul Johnson is UNDEFEATED where it counts (12-0 ATS/ROAD) after a contest where the offense gained at least 475 total yards. This year is the first-time ever that all 3 military schools are participating in the postseason at the same time, and Navy has already lost OUTRIGHT as a double-digit favorite
Info Plays
3* Magic -6
Reasons why the Magic will cover:
1) Orlando is riding a ton of confidence after beating both San Antonio and Boston at home, and should have no trouble winning easily on the road tonight. New Jersey is just 25-37 ATS versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons, and just 20-36 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
2) Orlando is 21-8 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons, and are 31-15 ATS in road games after allowing 80 points or less since 1996.
Black Widow
1* on Dallas Mavericks +1.5
Dallas is playing better than any team in the NBA right now, and any time you can get them as an underdog it's certainly worth a wager. The Mavericks are 16-1 SU & 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. They are 23-5 for the season and their improvement this year has been due to an emphasis on defense, where Dallas is allowing 93.5 points/game. Oklahoma City has almost forgotten how to play defense, yielding 101.6 points/game while opponents are shooting nearly 47% from the floor. Dallas is 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS on the road this year, and 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a road underdog this season. Take the Mavericks and the points.