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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 28, 2009

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GOLD SHEET

*Minnesota 26 - CHICAGO 13—Vikes had one of their more “complete” victories of the season in the first meeting, with 159 YR, 537 total yards, 392 YP & 3 TDs by Brett Favre, 40:55 of possession, and 4 sacks and 3 takeaways by the defense. That, of course, was indoors. After last week’s downer in Carolina, Favre will be eager to erase some doubts in another outdoor game in Chicago, where he has usually excelled in the past. The revenge-minded Bears will be in a nasty mood. But rely on Jay Cutler (19 TDs, 25 ints.) and Chicago (7 straight spread losses; 9 of 10) at your own risk.

*Georgia 37 - Texas A&M 36—In what shapes up as a shootout, prefer to take a TD with an A&M bunch clearly possessing the firepower to trade all the way with UGA, a team sans much KO punch, winning by 7 pts. or fewer in 4 of 6 victories vs. FBS squads TY. Aggies 2nd-year mentor Mike Sherman played a school-record 18 freshmen in ‘09 as he continued to indoctrinate his own recruits as soon as possible. And it’s fair to say the Bulldogs (ranked 13th in AP preseason polls), who had much loftier goals and are accustomed to more prestigious New Year’s Day bowls, might not be as fired-up as the young, enthusiastic Aggie contingent calling this a “springboard game” for the 2010 campaign. “It’s definitely a bummer, I know for a fact nobody wants to be away from their family on Christmas,” bemoans Georgia team leader LB Rennie Curran.

The high-octane, balanced A&M attack (34 ppg, 24 rush TDs, 28 pass) is smoothly directed by dual-threat, 6-5 jr. QB Jerrod Johnson (school-record 3217 YP & 28 TDP, just 6 ints.; 455 YR), who steadily improved his decision-making and accuracy. “I’ve never been around a player who has progressed like he has. He showed tenacity vs. Texas. He wanted the ball in his hands.” says HC Sherman. And with the dynamic RB duo of freshman Christine Michael (767 YR) & soph Cyrus Gray (752 YR) commanding every-down respect, and sure- handed 6-4 WR Jeff Fuller (34 catches; missed most or all of 6 games due to knee) back to full strength, Aggies should light scoreboard vs. the penetrable Dawg defense (yielded 34 pts.-or-more 5 times; 90th in passing “D”) adjusting to DL Coach Rodney Garner, who is serving as the interim d.c. after the season-ending firing of Willie Martinez and two other defensive assistants.

The Georgia attack, which became more ground-oriented down the stretch with the emergence of frosh RB Washaun Ealey (183 YR vs. Georgia Tech) coupled with shoulder injury of big-play WR A.J. Green (missed last 21⁄2 games; expected back), will do business vs. immature A&M defense (431 ypg, 33 ppg). But if Aggies sackmeister “Jack” DE Von Miller (nation-leading 17 sacks) can keep Dawgs’ inconsistent QB Joe Cox (56%, 22 TDs, 14 ints.) from getting too comfy, Mark Richt’s mistake-prone crew (ghastly 27 giveaways) is in for 60- minute scoring fest here. Endorse the “over” in a game where the punters might hardly work.

 
Posted : December 27, 2009 9:03 pm
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Killersports

MNF Total of the Year

5-STAR Chicago and MINNESOTA Under 41 –

This is SBB’s first 5-STAR newsletter total of the year (its one 5-STAR side was a nice winner with Green Bay in week three) and it comes off the heels of its 5-STAR Total of the Year winner last week with Baltimore and Chicago Under.

It’s pretty clear at this point that Chicago has quit on their coach and mailed in the season. Against a motivated and good defense, who was embarrassed last week against Carolina on national TV, we just don’t see the Bears scoring much.

Chicago lost last week to Baltimore, 31-7, and are 7 point under- dogs in this one. The Bears are 0-11 OU (-6.4 ppg) since November 03, 2002 as a 7+ dog with a total of 38 or more after a straight up loss (team=Bears and total>38 and 7<=line and p:L and 20021103<=date)

In that game, the Bears committed six turnovers while only forcing one. Chicago is 0-22 OU (-9.3 ppg) since November 07, 1993 when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 on the road when the teams combined for more than nine points (team=Bears and p:AL and 29 and NB and 19931107<=date).

Chicago has not been able to run the ball all season, and facing one of the stingiest run defense in the league which has allowed only 3.94 yards per carry. The Bears are 0-17 OU (-8.8 ppg) since Octo- ber 24, 1999 as a 6.5+ dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 4 yards per carry season-to-date (team=Bears and 6.5<=line and Average(1.*rushing yards@o:team and season)/Average(rushes@o:team and season)<4 and 19991024<=date).

Chicago has been quick to abandon the run this year, 31st in the league in carries with only 22.7 a game. The Vikings are 0-10 OU (-7.8 ppg) since September 14, 2003 as a 7+ favorite when their op- ponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25 (team=Vikings and line<=-7 and Average(o:rushes@o:team and season)<25 and 20030914<=date).

Minnesota is still 11-3 despite recent struggles and should be able to control Chicago in this one. The Vikings are 0-14 OU (-7.0 ppg) since September 14, 2003 as a 7+ favorite versus any team with fewer wins when not coming off a Monday night game (team=Vikings and lineo:wins and 20030914<=date).

The shine has certainly come off the Vikings offense in the last couple weeks. The Bears can offer a bit of a resurgence here for that Minnesota offense, but in the cold on Monday night, we wouldn’t look for them to be explosive.

SBB PREDICTION: Minnesota 23, CHICAGO 10

 
Posted : December 27, 2009 9:04 pm
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LOGICAL APPROACH

This was a rebuilding season for Georgia after losing QB Stafford and RB Moreno to the NFL and the Bulldogs struggled to a 7-5 season in which coach Richt surprisingly came under pressure despite his outstanding 82-22 record in his first 8 seasons. The pressure was eased a bit with their season ending win over Georgia Tech. They are in a Bowl for a thirteenth straight season and have won each of their last 3. For A&M this was a season of improvement in ex-NFL coach Sherman's second season. The Aggies return to a Bowl after a one season absence. They did end the season losing 3 of 4 but the final loss was in a very competitive effort against arch rival Texas. Their signature win as a 52-30 blowout over Texas Tech on the road. They had 4 other wins by at least 24 points. They also suffered losses by 28, 48 and 55 points to Arkansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma. Talk about feast or famine! A&M ranked # 5 on offense (465 ypg) and # 107 on defense (431 ypg). Georgia was better balanced with the # 74 offense (362 ypg) and # 30 defense (328 ypg). Georgia did defeat Arkansas in SEC play. Both teams lost to Oklahoma State. Aside from the win over Georgia Tech, Georgia's other notable wins were over Bowl-bound Auburn and South Carolina. The contrast between offense and defense matchups make this a most intriguing contest. A&M's profile is indicative of a high scoring shootout. Georgia's primary stats suggest more of a lower scoring contest. But Georgia was - 17 in turnovers tilts the percentages both to the underdog and more of a high scoring game. The Bulldogs were sloppy in protecting the football and the defense rarely created turnovers. A&M has an excellent chance at pulling off the upset but their vulnerabilities on defense make this a risky forecast. Georgia's offense did improve over the second half of the season, scoring at least 27 points in each of their last 4 games against defenses much better than they'll face here. The overall talent and speed of SEC athletes point to Georgia being able to answer any A&M score and in making a key defensive stop. The call is for the points to come into play as Georgia wins 37-34, making TEXAS A&M a 2 Star Selection and the OVER a 1 Star Selection .

 
Posted : December 27, 2009 9:04 pm
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POINTWISE

MONDAY Minnesota 23 - CHICAGO 20 - (8:35) -- Quite an embarrassing showing by the Vikings, in their anemic effort vs the Panthers. Were at 30 ppg, before 26-7 loss to Carolina. Just 10 FDs, 41 RDs, & a 16-minute possession time deficit, with no TDs for Brett. Have to figure quick bounceback vs Bears, who are averaging just 12.3 ppg in their last 6 outings. Their only TD LW came on a punt return. They rank dead last in rushing & Cutler continues his inept play: 3 more INTs, bringing his total to 25 for the year. Bears on 1-9 ATS run, but the host is 5-0 ATS by 881⁄2 pts ATS in Minny tilts. Chicago is 11-1 ATS in Dec off pair of losses. Under spot.

 
Posted : December 27, 2009 9:05 pm
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Sports Insights

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

Our old favorite -- reverse line movement -- is pointing towards the Chicago Bears in this match-up. The line opened at Chicago +7.5 but quickly moved to Chicago +7 -- even with 80% of the bets taking the Vikings. Our faithful readers know that we like this kind of reverse line movement because it means that "big money" is more than counter-balancing the barrage of Public Bets -- that are normally on the favorite. We'll ride the "big money" coattails and "fade the Public."

In addition to "reading the tape" of the NFL point spread marketplace, there is value in betting home dogs during the end of the Regular Season. Finally, this is a good old-fashioned Divisional rivalry -- so the Bears will definitely be a "live" home dog. Being under the spotlight of Monday Night Football should also get the Bears up for this game. Take the 7 points and a Bears team that should certainly be motivated for this game.

Chicago Bears +7

 
Posted : December 27, 2009 9:05 pm
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Dr Bob

OPINION/ LEAN

Minnesota (-7.0) 25 CHICAGO 18
Over/Under Total: 41.0

I went against Minnesota last week with a Best Bet on Carolina +9, who thumped the Vikes 26-7, but Teams that lose to the spread by 25 points or more are 84-39-4 ATS the next week since 2001 and Minnesota should bounce back tonight with a decent effort as they try to garner a first round bye.

 
Posted : December 27, 2009 9:06 pm
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Randall the Handle

Vikings @ Bears

Brett Favre’s diva ways resurfacing but may not matter against this woeful opponent. Bears have tossed in the towel and have covered just one game since mid-October. Minnesota can’t let up with Eagles chasing them for #2 spot. TAKING: Minnesota –7

 
Posted : December 27, 2009 9:06 pm
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Norm Hitzges

Single Play

Chicago +7 vs Minnesota

 
Posted : December 27, 2009 9:06 pm
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SPORTS ADVISORS

Minnesota (11-3, 8-5-1 ATS) at Chicago (5-9, 4-10 ATS)

The Vikings head to Soldier Field in Chicago looking to lock up the second seed in the NFC playoffs and remain in contention for the No. 1 seed with a victory over the division rival Bears.

Minnesota has dropped two of its last three games (SU and ATS), including last Sunday night’s 26-7 loss at Carolina as a nine-point road favorite. The Vikings, who have lost two in a row and three of their last four on the highway (SU and ATS), have struggled offensively the last three weeks, managing just 18 points and 291.3 total yards per game – far off their season-long averages of 28.3 points and 368.9 yards per game.

Chicago was crushed in Baltimore 31-7 last Sunday, never threatening to cover as a 10½-point underdog. Since a 3-1 SU and ATS start, the Bears have lost two in a row and eight of 10, and they’re just 1-9 ATS during this stretch, including seven straight non-covers coming into this contest. Chicago’s offense has managed just 12.7 points and 240.7 yards per game the last three weeks. Additionally, the Bears have the NFL’s third-worst rushing attack, managing just 88.3 yards per game on the ground, while QB Jay Cutler has offset 19 TD passes with a league-leading 25 interceptions.

The SU winner has covered the spread in 13 of Chicago’s 14 games this year and is 11-2-1 ATS in Minnesota’s 14 contests (7-0-1 ATS last eight). Also, the favorite is 9-3 ATS in the Bears’ last 12 outings and is 8-5-1 ATS in all 14 Vikings games.

Minnesota scored a 36-10 blowout home win over the Bears on Nov. 29, easily cashing as a 10-point favorite. The Vikings have won four of the last five matchups in this rivalry (3-2 ATS) but lost in the Windy City last season 48-41 as three-point underdogs. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 series meetings, with the Bears holding a 5-1 ATS edge in the past six clashes in Chicago.

The Vikings are just 1-4 ATS in their last five Week 16 games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 December contests, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 4-0-1 against division rivals, 7-1 after a straight-up loss and 4-1-1 against teams with losing records. There is nothing positive about the Bears’ ATS streaks, as they’re in pointspread slumps of 0-7 overall, 0-4 at home, 6-18-2 against winning teams, 3-12-1 against NFC squads, 1-7 against division rivals, 0-5-1 in December and 1-11 as an underdogs.

Minnesota is on “under” runs of 6-0 overall (all as a favorite), 5-0 in December, 8-2-1 as a road favorite and 7-3 on the road against teams with losing records. Chicago also is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 6-0 overall, 4-1 at home, 56-26-2 as an underdog, 5-0 against NFC teams, 10-1 after a straight-up loss and 12-2 after a non-cover. In this series, the “over” is 5-2-1 in the last eight matchups.

Finally, six of the last seven Monday Night Football contests have stayed under the total, following a 19-5-1 “over” stretch on Mondays.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

INDEPENDENCE BOWL

(at Shreveport, La.)

Texas A&M (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. Georgia (7-5, 4-7 ATS)

The Bulldogs, who were ranked 13th in the AP preseason poll but slid rapidly from there in the rugged Southeastern Conference, make their 13th consecutive bowl appearance when they take on Texas A&M at Independence Stadium.

Georgia got bounced at Oklahoma State 24-10 in its season opener, rebounded to win three in a row, then muddled through the rest of the season with a 4-4 SU mark (3-4 ATS). The Bulldogs managed to win three of their last four games (2-1 ATS in lined games) to get bowl-eligible for the 13th year in a row. The Dawgs capped the regular season in style, upsetting instate rival Georgia Tech 30-24 as a 9½-point road underdog on Nov. 28.

The Aggies also never really got a foothold on their season in the Big 12, winning their first three games, then losing three in row before finishing the year on a 1-3 SU skid (2-2 ATS). That said, Texas A&M battled hard against archrival and then-third-ranked Texas in the Nov. 26 regular-season finale before succumbing 49-39 but easily cashing as an overwhelming 20-point home ‘dog. That gave A&M a 4-2 ATS mark over its last six games.

These schools have met five times previously, but only twice since 1954, with Georgia most recently rolling 42-0 in 1980.

The Bulldogs played in New Year’s Day bowl games six of the past seven years, including last year when they dropped Michigan State 24-12 as a nine-point chalk in the Capital One Bow. That made Georgia 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 bowl games. Meanwhile, the Aggies’ most recent bowl appearance came two years ago when they lost to Penn State 24-17 as a five-point pup in the Alamo Bowl. Texas A&M is just 1-5 ATS in bowl games this decade.

Georgia scored 27 points or more in five of their last six games, averaging 29.5 points per game during this stretch. For the season, it put up 27.7 points and 361.8 total yards per game, including 157.1 ypg on the ground, mostly behind a three-headed RB attack of Washaun Ealey, Caleb King and Richard Samuel, who combined for 1,568 yards. The Bulldogs’ D surrendered 26.4 points and 328.4 yards per contest.

Texas A&M sports one of the nation’s most prolific offenses, rolling up 33.9 points and 465.3 yards per game, with the latter figure ranking fifth nationally. The Aggies were balanced with 274.9 passing ypg and 190.4 rushing ypg. QB Jerrod Johnson was the catalyst, throwing for 3,217 yards with 28 TDs against just six INTs, and he also ran for 455 yards and eight scores. However, the Aggies’ defense ranked among the worst in the nation, giving up 431.3 ypg (107th) and 32.7 ppg (104th).

In addition to its 11-4 ATS run in bowl games, Georgia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven on neutral fields, but otherwise the Dawgs carry negative ATS streaks of 6-14 overall, 3-11 as a chalk, 0-5-1 after a spread-cover and 1-4 after a SU win. Meanwhile, the Aggies 1-5 ATS bowl slide is compounded by pointspread slumps of 0-5 at neutral sites, 0-4 as an underdog, 3-7 outside the Big 12, 0-3-1 against the SEC and 1-4 in December.

The over is 8-3 in Georgia’s last 11 bowl starts and 6-2 in its last eight December outings, but the under for the Dawgs is on rolls of 3-0 in non-conference action and 4-0 against the Big 12. The under is 5-2 in A&M’s last seven bowl games, but the Aggies are otherwise on a bundle of “over” runs, including 6-2 overall, 8-2 after a SU loss, 11-5-1 in non-conference play, 34-16-2 as a pup and 39-19-2 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and OVER

NBA

L.A. Lakers (24-5, 13-16 ATS) at Phoenix (19=12, 17-14 ATS)

The Lakers will try to continue their dominance over the Suns when they visit the US Airways Center for a Pacific Division showdown.

Los Angeles rebounded from its 102-87 Christmas Day home loss to the Cavaliers with Saturday’s 112-103 overtime victory in Sacramento on Saturday, cashing as a six-point road chalk. The Lakers have won six of their last seven games (3-4 ATS) and 17 of their last 19 (10-9 ATS), and they’ve also won five straight on the road (3-2 ATS).

Phoenix has lost three of its last four (SU and ATS) and nine of its last 14 (6-8 ATS), including Saturday’s 132-127 defeat at Golden State as a three-point road favorite. After opening the season with 10 consecutive home wins, the Suns have lost two of their last three SU and ATS at US Airways Center, but the one victory came on Friday against the Clippers, a 124-93 blowout as a 10-point favorite. The Suns average a whopping 115.2 points a game at home, while shooting 51.3 percent from the floor.

The SU winner is 17-3 ATS in Phoenix’s last 20 games (7-0 ATS last seven).

Los Angeles has already defeated Phoenix twice this season (2-0 ATS), with both wins coming at home, and the Lakers are 6-1 in the last seven meetings (5-2 ATS) and 8-2 in the last 10 (7-3 ATS). While the home team has won five in a row in this rivalry and cashed in each of the last four meetings, L.A. has managed to cover in four of its last five trips to the desert.

The Lakers come into this one having cashed in four straight games against Pacific Division rivals, but they’re on ATS slides of 0-4 on Monday, 1-4 after getting a day off and 2-5 after a straight-up win. Phoenix is just 2-4 ATS in its last six overall and 1-4 ATS in its last five against divisional rivals, but is otherwise on positive pointspread streaks of 15-7 at home, 13-5 after a non-cover and 5-1 after a straight-up loss.

The Lakers are on several “under” runs, including 8-3 overall, 17-8 on Mondays, 11-4-1 after a spread-cover and 7-2 after a straight-up win. The Suns have followed a 13-3-2 “under” run by topping the total in their last three overall, and the over has hit in their last five against Western Conference teams. However, Phoenix is still carrying “under” streaks of 11-3-1 after a non-cover, 6-2 on Mondays and 7-3-1 after a day off. Finally, the “over” has been the play in six of the last 10 in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS

 
Posted : December 27, 2009 9:16 pm
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BIG AL

Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Boston Celtics

In their last game, the Warriors won 132-127 over Phoenix (as a 3-point dog), and that game snapped a seven-game losing streak for the "Dubs." And, if there's any team that doesn't like success, it's Golden State. The Warriors are a miserable 14-38 ATS off a home win, and are 34-54 ATS off a game in which it scored 110+ points. Boston lost by two last night at the Clippers, but the Celtics are still a solid 66-48 ATS on the road, and I like them to bounce back with a strong effort on Monday. Lay the points.

 
Posted : December 28, 2009 7:12 am
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Rob Vinciletti

Marshall vs. Troy
Play: Marshall -2

This is another of those strange non confernce games where they play twice in a season. Most non conference games are played once a year while alternating venues every year. Marshall beat Troy pretty bad 2 weeks ago by 29 points. While I dont expect this game to be that much of a blowout, I do like Marshall here. Marshall is 9-2 this season and has won 20 of 27 times when favored the past few years and 18-6 vs teams who allow 77 or more points per game. They have a big shooting percentage defensive edge here and take on a Troy team that is 0-5 vs Conference USA teams, 3-12 vs teams who score 77 or more points per game and 1-7 with 7+ days rest. Look for Marshall to get the win tonight.

 
Posted : December 28, 2009 7:17 am
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Tony Weston

An easy call with the Browns yesterday as they cruise past the Raiders. I’m handing you another Comp Play winner as I’m taking Georgia in the Independence Bowl.

Installed as about a touchdown favorite, the Bulldogs have covered in 2 of their last 3 games and have won 3 of their last 4 games SU.

In that 4-game stretch Georgia has outscored its opponents by an average of 11 points per game (31.5-20.5).

Texas A&M, on the other hand, has won just 3 of its last 9 games SU and has covered in just 4 of those games. In that 9-game stretch the Aggies have lost by an average by about a touchdown a game (37.4-30.2).

Away from College Station this year, A&M has gone 1-4 SU and ATS, getting outscored, on average, by more than 20 points per game (47.8-25.8).

The Aggies also have covered in just 2 of their last 10 games when installed as an underdog of between 3 1/2 and 10 points. A&M is also just 1-5 ATS its last 6 bowl games and has failed to cover in 5 straight games at neutral sites.

Georgia, on the other hand, has covered in 5 of its last 7 games at neutral sites and is 8-3 ATS its last 11 bowl games.

This is a no-brainer. Take Georgia in this bowl game.

3♦ GEORGIA

 
Posted : December 28, 2009 7:19 am
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Jeff Benton

Texas A&M +6' vs. Georgia, at Shreveport, LA

For Monday’s free play, I’ll head to the Independence Bowl and play Texas A&M plus the points against Georgia.

I’ll concede that the SEC was vastly superior to the Big 12 this season, but I’ve been talking a lot about how much motivation plays a part in bowl games – it’s just as important as the overall matchups on the field. And in this game, I just don’t see where Georgia’s motivation is going to come from. The Bulldogs started the season ranked 13th in the national polls, only to stumble out of the gate against Oklahoma State (24-10 loss) and stagger to a disappointing 7-5 season. And when I say disappointing – and when I talk about a lack of motivation – I mean this Georgia program is used to playing on New Year’s Day – something the Bulldogs had done six times in seven years prior to this season.

As for the Aggies, they haven’t been involved much postseason action lately, and the last time they were in a bowl game – the 2007 Alamo Bowl – they fell short against Penn State 24-17 as a five-point favorite. With coach Mike Sherman in his second season with A&M and in his first bowl game, you know he’s going to stress the importance of a good showing tonight – he’ll also stress that he’ll be evaluating the effort of each and every player returning for next year.

Finally, the last time we saw the Aggies, they were giving mighty Texas all they could handle, eventually losing 49-39 but covering as a 20½-point underdog. If A&M can hang with the Longhorns for 60 minutes, it can stay within a touchdown of 7-5 Georgia, which enters this contest in a 6-14 ATS rut, including 3-11 ATS as a favorite.

4♦ TEXAS A&M

 
Posted : December 28, 2009 7:20 am
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Bobby Maxwell

Oklahoma City -6 at NEW JERSEY

Scored the FREE winner on Sunday as the Cowboys blew out the Redskins to make me now 14-2 with my last 16 comp plays and 37-16 over the last 53 days of freebies. You want another one tonight, I've got one on the NBA hardwood as I lay the chalk with the Thunder in New Jersey.

A very good young team that is brimming with confidence heads to New Jersey to play a bad team that has absolutely no confidence. I’ll go ahead and lay the chalk and play the Thunder in this matchup. New Jersey sucks.

Oklahoma is coming off wins in Phoenix on Wednesday, 117-113 as an 8 ½-point underdog, and then at home over the Bobcats on Saturday, 98-91 as six-point favorites. The Thunder has covered in three straight and seven of their last 10.

There is a big-time scorer for the Thunder in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook makes this team tick by doing everything it needs, handle the ball, pass, rebound and score when needed. Throw in a shooter and scorer like Jeff Green and this is a solid ballclub coming to New Jersey today.

For the Nets, they have dropped nine in a row (2-7 ATS) and have lost five in a row at home, including Saturday’s 98-93 loss to the Rockets. You can understand home blowout losses to the Lakers and Utah, but losses to Minnesota and Golden State aren’t so easy to explain.

The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 matchups between these two and the Thunder are on ATS runs of 8-3 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1 on the road, 4-0 as a favorite and 7-1 on Mondays. New Jersey is a disaster at the betting window, on ATS slides of 1-4 at home, 5-17 against Northwest Division teams, 2-5 as a home ‘dog and 0-6 after a spread-cover.

Go ahead and lay the chalk with Oklahoma City tonight.

5♦ OKLAHOMA CITY

 
Posted : December 28, 2009 7:20 am
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Stephen Nover

DePaul +12' at PITTSBURGH

DePaul is laying in the weeds. The Blue Demons are better this season because they are more experienced, play tougher defense and junior center Mac Koshwai is healthy.

Koshwai has been limited to just four games because of a foot injury. He's averaging 15.2 points and 13 rebounds. He's healthy now.

Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup so taking this many is intriguing. Pittsburgh averages just 66.3 points. DePaul ranks 41st in defense giving up 60.2 points per game.

The Panthers lost all of their top guns from last year. They have a lot of young players. It could take them a while to adjust to rugged Big East play.

DePaul has covered in nine of its last 10 road games. The Blue Demons also are 9-1 against the spread in an underdog role.

They are worth backing at this high of a pointspread.

2♦ DEPAUL

 
Posted : December 28, 2009 7:21 am
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