Brett Atkins
I'm 11-8 with my last 19 free selections and today I've got a college bowl winner for you as I'm going to lay the chalk with Georgia as the Bulldogs take on Texas A&M in the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La.
One thing is for certain, Georgia coach Mark Richt is taking responsiblility for the defense today and you will see a 100 percent effort from the players in this one. The Bulldogs have had spotty defense this season and Richt has let go of his defensive coordinator and two assistants.
Offensively, the Bulldogs are solid with the ability to do damage through the air or on the ground. They pounded Georgia Tech for 339 rushing yards in a 30-24 victory to close out the regular season.
Texas A&M has been up and down all season, getting held in the teens in their losses but lighting up the scoreboard in their wins. Tonight they'll face an aggressive defense that is looking to perform for the head coach.
Georgia has won 10 of its last 15 bowl appearances while the Aggies have dropped 10 of 12. I'm playing the better team all-around team in this one. Lay the chalk and play Georgia.
4♦ GEORGIA
Charley Sutton
How easy did the Packers make it look yesterday? Very easy call on Green Bay as I deliver another Comp Play winner.
I’m handing you another winner tonight as I’m taking Georgia in the Independence Bowl over Texas A&M.
Georgia comes into this game installed as about a touchdown favorite, depending on where you’re playing this.
Coming into this game the Bulldogs have gone 3-1 SU and have covered in 2 of their last 3 games. In that 4-game stretch Georgia has outscored its opponents by an average of 11 points per game (31.5-20.5).
Now they battle a Texas A&M team that’s won just 3 of its last 9 games SU and has covered in just 4 of those games. Over that 9-game stretch the Aggies have lost by an average by about a touchdown a game (37.4-30.2).
On the road this year, whether true roadies or neutral sites, A&M has gone 1-4 SU and ATS, getting outscored, on average, by more than 20 points per game (47.8-25.8).
Consider, too, the Aggies have covered in just 2 of their last 10 games when installed as an underdog of between 3 1/2 and 10 points. A&M is also just 1-5 ATS its last 6 bowl games and has failed to cover in 5 straight games at neutral sites.
Georgia, on the other hand, has covered in 5 of its last 7 games at neutral sites and is 8-3 ATS its last 11 bowl games.
The Bulldogs will do it again and get over on the Aggies.
3 ♦ GEORGIA
Joel Tyson
After a string of Monday night UNDERS, New York and Washington easily climbed OVER the total last Monday.
I like another OVER tonight in Chicago, as the last 3 meetings between the Vikings and the Bears at Soldier Field have played HIGH.
The teams are 5-2-1 OVER the total their last 8 showdowns, and with the Vikings looking to get their offense going after coming up with just one score in last Sunday night's primetime loss at Carolina, expect to see some "urgency" from the Norsemen.
This total is hovering right around 6 combined touchdowns, and I see these teams getting past that total.
Take the OVER.
3♦ MINNESOTA-CHICAGO OVER
Chuck O'Brien
Play the Independence Bowl between Texas A&M and Georgia OVER the total on Monday night.
After the first five bowl games this season soared over the total, we’ve seen the inevitable correction with the last five in a row going low (including Saturday’s three games and Sunday's Kentucky-Clemson contest featuring combined totals of 38, 37, 36 and 34 points). Tonight, the scoreboard will light up once again, as this has all the makings of a shootout.
Georgia averages 27.7 points and 362 total yards per game and gives up 26.4 ppg, while Texas A&M puts up 34 points and a whopping 465 yards per contest, but it surrenders 32.7 points and 431.3 yards per game. Both teams can run the ball – the Aggies to the tune of 190.4 rushing ypg, compared with Georgia’s at 157.1 rushing ypg. And both teams struggle to stop the run – Texas A&M yields 168.6 ypg on the ground; the Bulldogs allow 127.6.
Georgia tallied 38, 31, 27 and 30 points in its last four games, but against its final four Division I-A opponents, it gave up 41, 24, 34 and 24. As for A&M, it scored 31 points or more in nine of its 12 games (including 39 in the season finale against Texas, which has one of the nation’s stingiest defenses), but the Aggies also gave up 30 or more eight times (including yielding 49 to the aforementioned Longhorns).
The Bulldogs have topped the total in eight of their last 11 bowl games, while A&M has gone over in six of its last eight overall, 11 of its last 17 non-conference games (including one push) and the over is 34-16-2 in its last 52 games as an underdog.
2♦ Texas A&M-Georgia OVER
JIM FEIST
BOSTON CELTICS / GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
TAK:E GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
You starting point guard really has to show some clutch play in the closing moments, and that just didn't happen for the Celtics on Sunday. With the Celtics holding the ball and the score tied at 90 against the Clippers, Rondo drove to the basket and was fouled with just 1.5 second remaining. However, Rondo missed both free throws and gave the Clippers one last shot. Baron Davis didn't miss, hitting a 20-foot turn around jumper as time expired. Now, the Celtics have to play back-to-back road games after that disheartening loss to the Clippers. The loss comes on the heels of a Christmas day win at Orlando. Now the Celtics travel to Northern Cal to play the Warrriors. And, if you think this could be another powder puff matchup, think again. Not only are the Celtics without Paul Pierce, but they haven't fared well against the Warriors. Golden State covered the first meeting in Boston this year and has now covered four straight, six of seven and nine of the last 12 against the Celtics. And, the Warriors can beat good teams at home. Just ask Phoenix that was beaten on Saturday at Golden State, 132-127. Ok, the Warriors have just eight wins on the season, but they have covered six of ll home games. The Warriors are a six-point home dog. They are 38-15-1 ATS as a home dog the last 55 games. We will take the points here against a tired and slightly undermanned Boston club.
Karl Garrett
Milwaukee at CHARLOTTE -4'
NBA comp play winner for Monday on Charlotte minus the points over Milwaukee.
The Bobcats have been getting it done on their home hardwood, as Larry Brown's club is 10-4 straight up at home, and 9-5 against the spread in those 14 home dates.
Milwaukee comes to town having dropped their last pair, and 5 of their last 6 straight up, while failing 3 of their last 4 against the math.
The home team in this series has won the last 4 meetings both straight up and against the spread, and the host is also on a 6-2 straight up, and against the spread run the last 8 meetings.
With the Bobcats toting in a 24-11 spread mark their last 35 at home, I will look for the "home cooking" to be the way to go tonight.
3♦ CHARLOTTE
Mighty Quinn
Mighty hit with the Jets ( 5-1/2) and Texans ( 1-1/2) and pushed with the Ravens ( 3) Sunday.
Today it's Georgia (Independence Bowl).
The correct surplus is 270 sirignanos.
flip- a -coin sports
Georgia -6.5
Under 66.5
play straight up
and tease
and parlay
LT Profits
Marshall @ Troy
The Marshall Thundering Herd and Troy Trojans are each averaging an identical 83.0 points per game, but both teams have padded their stats against non-lined opponents, so we look for a lower scoring contest here tonight.
In fact, if we eliminate games vs. Division II opponents, the scoring average for Marshall drops to 76.6 points and the average for Troy drops to 73.5, and that combined average of 150.1 points is already about seven points less than this posted total.
Also, do not underestimate the Marshall defense here, as they have not gotten off to a nice 9-2 start by merely outscoring people. The Thundering Herd are allowing just 68.8 points per game on a mere 40.0 percent shooting from the floor, and even after adjusting for their schedule, the Herd have an excellent defensive effective field goal percentage allowed of 44.3 percent, which ranks in the top 50 in the country according to the Pomeroy Ratings.
Now granted, Troy is a terrible defensive team, but the key here is that their offense may not get out of the 60s vs. an underrated Marshall defense. If we go ahead and give the Trojans 65 points, it would mean that Marshall needs to exceed 92 points for this game not to stay Under.
Well, looking at the home vs. away splits, Marshall is averaging 64.0 points on the road and Troy is allowing 70.0 points at home, so we just do not see Marshall lighting up the scoreboard that much.
All things considered, it appears that this posted total is inflated by the scores these teams put up vs. non-board teams, as we see the total output in the game ending up in the 140s.
Pick: Marshall/Troy Under 157
LARRY NESS
Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors
PICK: Golden State Warriors +6
When the Celtics won Christmas Day at Orlando 86-77 (without Paul Pierce), they moved 13-1 on the road this year with nine consecutive road victories. Win No. 10 in a row got away last night in Staples Center, not against the Lakers but rather against the Clippers. Boston saw a three-point slip away in the final 10 seconds, as Butler nailed a game-tying three-pointer with 8.5 seconds left right before Rondo missed two free throws that would have given the Celtics the lead. Baron Davis won it for LA with a buzzer-beating jumper. Go figure? Boston will be without its leading scorer in Pierce (18.2) with Tony Allen likely taking his place in the starting lineup. Boston is the league's toughest team to score on (91.5 PPG) and will be taking on the Warriors, who are second in the league in scoring (107.2 PPG) but dead-last in both point allowed (112.3) and FG percentage (49.3). The Warriors were able to outscore the Suns on Saturday night 132-127 here in Oakland, as both Ellis and Maggette scored 33 points. Golden St has been decimated by injuries but tonight, should get starting center Biedrins back (he averaged 11.9-11.2 LY). He was expected to play vs Phoenix but has been upgraded to probable for this one. I took the Warriors vs the Suns on Saturday and will come back with them here. Ellis (25.2), Morrow (12.2) and rookie Curry (12.1-4.7 APG) have been part of a three-guard starting lineup, joined recently by Maggette (17.6-5.7) and Randolph (11.6-6.5). Note that the Celtics are just 5-7 ATS as a road favorite this year and last year's 99-89 at Golden State was their fifth straight loss in Oakland, even though the Warriors were playing without Monta Ellis and Corey Maggette in that one. The Celtics have won in every other NBA venue EXCEPT Oakland since Garnett, Allen and Pierce became the team's "Big Three," so why NOT take the points!
Drew Gordon
Washington +6 at MEMPHIS
26-18-2 roll L45 Free Plays! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Wizards/Grizzlies match up.
Memphis is no longer flying under the radar, having gone an excellent 10-4 ATS at home thus far this season. Whereas they may have presented some value earlier on this season, this specific contest is a perfect example of the public catching on too late. Read on...
You see, I'm well aware of the Grizzlies recent home wins, including beating Dallas, Cleveland, and Denver all outright there this month! However, before you go betting the farm on the Griz, consider two things: A. Are they really going to get "amped" for a visiting Wizards team? Its not like playing Lebron, and when Memphis is disinterested, they go back to being below average. And B. With this short one-game homestand, one has to wonder will the focus be there for Memphis? With a long road trip looming, could Memphis get caught coming out flat? I for one, believe they will.
From a match up standpoint, when both teams are healthy, they're at about the same level. Memphis may have the slight edge in the frontcourt, but we'll give the edge to Arenas and Foye in the backcourt, so in the end, these two teams are very close. Memphis has won and covered the L2 meetings, but Arenas didn't play in either, so expect this time around to be a lot different.
Finally, its interesting how the average bettor almost always reacts too late. Yes, the Grizzlies are quietly putting together a nice first half of the season, but what was once a little noticed team, has all of a sudden become the public's "dirty little secret." In other words, the value in betting Memphis is gone for the time being, so while they may win this game SU, covering the bloated number is an entirely different story.
Take Washington plus the points over Memphis in this NBA match up.
3♦ WASHINGTON
DUNKEL INDEX
NFL
Minnesota at Chicago
The Vikings look to bounce back from their loss to Carolina and build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games following a SU loss. Minnesota is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Vikings favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7)
Game 131-132: Minnesota at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 140.093; Chicago 127.060
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 43
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7); Over
NCAAF
Texas A&M vs. Georgia
The Bulldogs look to build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 bowl games. Georgia is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-6 1/2)
Game 221-222: Texas A&M vs. Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 88.591; Georgia 97.709
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 9; 70
Vegas Line: Georgia by 6 1/2; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-6 1/2); Over
NBA
Washington at Memphis
The Grizzlies look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games as a home favorite between 5 and 10 1/2 points. Memphis is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-6)
Game 701-702: Milwaukee at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 113.321; Charlotte 120.706
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 7 1/2; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 4 1/2; 185
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-4 1/2); Under
Game 703-704: Oklahoma City at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 117.375; New Jersey 109.948
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-6); Under
Game 705-706: Washington at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 113.238; Memphis 124.548
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 11 1/2; 221
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 6; 206 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-6); Over
Game 707-708: LA Lakers at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 121.541; Phoenix 124.352
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 224
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 709-710: Denver at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 122.384; Sacramento 117.236
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 5; 226
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 711-712: Philadelphia at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 115.060; Portland 126.065
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 11; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 7; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-7); Under
Game 713-714: Boston at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 122.678; Golden State 115.635
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 7; 215
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 6; 212 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-6); Over
NCAAB
BYU at Arizona
The Wildcats look to build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games as a home underdog. Arizona is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Cougars favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+5)
Game 715-716: DePaul at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 56.918; Pittsburgh 66.846
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 10
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+12 1/2)
Game 717-718: NC Wilmington at Richmond
Dunkel Ratings: NC Wilmington 52.684; Richmond 67.408
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Richmond by 12
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (-12)
Game 719-720: Bowling Green at Temple
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 51.508; Temple 67.284
Dunkel Line: Temple by 16
Vegas Line: Temple by 20
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+20)
Game 721-722: Marshall at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 60.617; Troy 54.995
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Marshall by 2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-2)
Game 723-724: Rutgers at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 55.451; North Carolina 78.181
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 21
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-21)
Game 725-726: BYU at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 66.759; Arizona 64.221
Dunkel Line: BYU by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: BYU by 5
Dunkel Pick Arizona (+5)
Game 727-728: UC-Irvine vs. San Jose State
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 48.742; San Jose State 56.822
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 8
Vegas Line: San Jose State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (-7 1/2)
Game 729-730: Colorado State at Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 55.306; Fresno State 60.955
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-6)
Game 731-732: Portland at Nevada
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 55.075; Nevada 68.729
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Nevada by 6
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-6)
Game 733-734: Furman vs. UC-Santa Barbara
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 44.872; UC-Santa Barbara 52.197
Dunkel Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 5
Dunkel Pick: UC-Santa Barbara (-5)
Game 735-736: Utah Valley State at California
Dunkel Ratings: Utah Valley State 50.347; California 69.943
Dunkel Line: California by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: California by 26
Dunkel Pick: Utah Valley State (+26)
Game 737-738: Norfolk State at UTEP
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 37.760; UTEP 62.421
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 24 1/2
Vegas Line: UTEP by 29 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (+29 1/2)
Game 739-740: Air Force vs. Niagara
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 49.620; Niagara 62.641
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 13
Vegas Line: Niagara by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-12 1/2)
Game 741-742: Pennsylvania at Davidson
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 40.969; Davidson 60.072
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 19
Vegas Line: Davidson by 15
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-15)
Game 743-744: Wake Forest at NC Greensboro
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 67.636; NC Greensboro 49.141
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 16
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-16)
Game 745-746: Eastern Washington at Gonzaga
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 46.591; Gonzaga 69.379
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 23
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 23 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+23 1/2)
Game 747-748: Denver at Northern Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 52.681; Northern Colorado 61.283
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 6
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (-6)
Game 749-750: Bryant at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Bryant 36.185; Indiana 59.042
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 23
Vegas Line: Indiana by 22
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-22)
NHL
Montreal at Ottawa
The Candiens look to build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 road games. Montreal is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Canadiens favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-130)
Game 1-2: Detroit at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 10.954; Columbus 11.113
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (-115); Under
Game 3-4: Atlanta at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 10.407; New Jersey 12.346
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-180); 6
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-180); Under
Game 5-6: Carolina at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.235; Washington 13.151
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 3; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-260); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-260); Over
Game 7-8: Montreal at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.669; Ottawa 10.625
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+110); Over
Game 9-10: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 10.569; Tampa Bay 11.129
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105); Under
Game 11-12: Calgary at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.496; Edmonton 11.677
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-125); Under
Game 13-14: Minnesota at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.153; Los Angeles 12.195
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-135); Under
Game 15-16: Phoenix at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.033; San Jose 12.634
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-175); Over
Tom Freese
BYU at Arizona
BYU is 9-4 ATS their last 13 games as road favorites and they are 9-3 ATS off an ATS win. The Cougars are 9-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and they are 5-2 ATS on the road vs. a team with a winning home record. Arizona is 1-5 ATS their last 6 games overall and they are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS their last 6 Non-Conference games.
Play on: BYU
VEGAS EXPERTS
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
This one is all about the just due factor. Both teams have gone Under in six straight games. Road teams coming off 4 or more straight Unders and the total is 35.5 to 42 are 108-64 Over since 1983. Minnesota is also a very strong 43-18 Over on the road off an ATS loss. They are also 40-23 Over out on the division road.
Play on: Over
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Charlotte Bobcats -4
Bottom Line: The Bobcats have been a strong home team at 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS this season. I'll back them laying a small number tonight against a Milwaukee team that is just 4-13 its last 17 games. Plus, Charlotte will be motivated by a 7-point loss in Milwaukee last month. The Bobcats are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and the home team has covered the last four in this head-to-head. Lay the number.