Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday December, 3

Ben Burns

Portland vs. Charlotte
Pick: Charlotte

After dropping three straight, the Bobcats should be fairly hungry here. While some of the faces are new, last year's 44-point blowout loss at Portland could potentially provide Charlotte with a little added motivation. Either way, I feel that the well-rested Bobcats are worth a look here.

While the Bobcats have won five of nine at home, the Blazers are only 3-7 SU/ATS on the road. The Bobcats are essentially matching opponents in scoring (96.6-97) on this floor while the Blazers are being outscored by a 100.8 to 93.2 margin away from Portland.

The Blazers did eke out a rare road win on Saturday and they had yesterday off. However, that was a double-OT (118-117) affair and they'll be playing their sixth game in the past nine days here. Its possible that fatigue could be a factor.

I backed the Bobcats the last (and only time this season) time that they'd dropped three straight this season. They rewarded me with a victory over Dallas, one of their more inspired efforts of the season.

The Bobcats upset the Blazers the last time the teams met here at Charlotte. They were listed as 4.5 point underdogs for that 3/11/11 contest and won 97-92. Looks like a solid spot for another potential win. Consider Charlotte.

Bryan Power

Toronto vs. Denver
Pick: Denver

Though this line is a bit higher than what I typically play, I still feel the Nuggets are worth a shot when they host the Toronto Raptors. Coming off an 0-3 road trip, you can bet Denver has this game circled as it will be their only home game during a nine-game stretch. Visiting Toronto won in a similar spot Friday over Phoenix, but is now back on the road where they have lost 6 straight and are 1-9 overall

After losing the first two games of their three-game road trip by a combined four points, Denver was blown out Friday by the Lakers, allowing Los Angeles to drain 17 three-pointers. They should not be wary of any kind of similar barrage from the Raptors, who had dropped six straight games prior to beating the Suns in their most recent game. Note the Raptors only road win of the season came by just two points over Indiana, a game that saw them score just 74 points. So far, they are being outscored by an average of 9.5 PPG on the road & this is not a trip that has previously treated them well as they've lost their last four trips to Denver by 15, 33, 18 and 39 points. I have every reason to believe this game ends in a blowout Monday night.

Marc Lawrence

Milwaukee vs. New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans

When the Hornets host the Bucks Monday night in the NBA, New Orleans will take the court knowing they are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS the last twelve games in this series. That includes a 117-113 loss in Milwaukee three weeks ago. With the Hornets off back-to-back double-diigit home losses in their last two home games, and the Bucks 7-13 ATS away in games before taking on the Spurs, there's no place like home in this matchup tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on New Orleans.

Hollywood Sports

Giants at Redskins
Prediction: Under

New York (7-4) snapped their two-game losing streak after their bye week by crushing Green Bay by a 38-10 margin. The Giants have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. New York has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, the Giants have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a victory. And in their last 7 games on the road, the defending Super Bowl champs have played 6 of these games Under the Total. Washington (5-6) comes off their 38-31 win at Dallas last week -- which makes the Under 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against NFC East opponents. The Redskins have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Take the Under in this one.

Rob Vinciletti

Bucks vs. Hornets
Play: Over 188½

This game fits a solid totals system that has cashed around 80% of the time and plays to the over for rested road favorites in this spread range that shot 45% or higher as a home favorite of 4 or less in their last game, vs an opponent that had 1 or more prior days of rest and scored 80 or less in their last game. The Hornets have flown over in 3 of 4 after scoring 85 or less, 6 of 9 with revenge and 4 of 5 off a loss of 10 or more. These two put up 230 point back the 17th of November in a game with a 191 point total. Look for this one to go over the total as well.

Jordan Runco

NY Giants vs. Washington Redskins
Play: NY Giants

The Washington Redskins put themselves in the playoff picture in the NFC with a Thanksgiving win over Dallas last week, 38-31. The New York Giants (7-4 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) are coming off a dominating 38-10 win at home against Green Bay last Sunday night. They'll travel to Landover, Md., to take on Washington (5-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) at FedEx Field on Monday at 8:30pm. Last game: NY Giants (-6.5) over WASHINGTON, 27-23.

Odds: The oddsmakers have installed the NY Giants as a 3-point favorite. The total is 51 in most books.

Line Movement: Giants opened as a 3-point favorite and remained there at most books. The total started at 51 and remained there in most books.

NFL FREE PICK: NY Giants. Latest trends: Giants are 9-2 ATS L11 with a line of +3 to -3, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 13, 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Washington is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games on grass, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games, 2-9 ATS L11 off a road game and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 13.

The Giants needed a bye to get their act together. Last week, their defensive line simply dominated Green Bay’s offensive line, in a 38-10 home win giving 1. The Giants moved Mathias Kiwanuka to DT, where he is a mismatch for most OL including Washington’s mediocre lot. The Giants also sat their safeties back in coverage to take away the deep ball. Look for Eli Manning to have a big game exploiting Washington safeties.

Washington is allowing 301.4 passing yards per game for the second-worst mark in the NFL and when the Giants are back on their game as Eli Manning ended his drought Sunday with three scores and 249 yards as New York returned from the bye with a dominant 38-10 victory over Green Bay. The Giants will win this due to their edge on both lines.

Ray Monohan

NY Giants vs. Washington Redskins
Play: NY Giants

The only reason to fade the Giants in this one is if you think they are getting too much love after last week’s beatdown of Green Bay. As it stand they are favored on the road but at just 2.5 really all they have to do is win the game.

The Giants actually do need this one to extend their lead in the division and they should be pumped to play on Monday night, something the great RGIII is not accustomed to. I don’t think he will falter but a mistake or two will ultimately cost the Redskins the game.

Washington may have won both last year but the Giants took G1 this season and had won the 6 previous meetings. If they don’t own them they are at least renting.

Jim Feist

Bucks vs Hornets
Pick: Over

Milwaukee (8-7 S/U, 6-8 ATS) takes to the road where it has had much more success for bettors this season. The Bucks re 5-2 ATS on the road, but just 1-6 ATS at home this season. Milwaukee is coming off a home win over Boston, 91-88. The win snapped a two-game losing streak. But even with that win, it was just their second in their last seven games. The New Orleans Hornets (4-11 S/U, 8-7 ATS) got off to a good start this season by winning three of their first five games. However, since then they are just 1-9. Part of the problem has been on defense, where the club has allowed 100 or more points in eight of their last 10 games. I'm looking at the OVER here tonight. With the Hornets poor defense, the Bucks should be able to score some decent points in this one. In fact, in the Bucks last 23 road games they have gone over in 15 of those. The recent history of these two clubs has has been OVER with nine of the last 12 meetings in New Orleans going over the number. The Bucks are the better team against a poor defense and if the Hornets can get to 90, this one goes OVER.

Dave Cokin

USC vs Nebraska
Pick: Nebraska

The PAC-12 is looking lousy again this season, and O'Neil-Miles is a coaching mismatch. Nebraska cannot match the Trojans on paper, but I'll take my chances with the Cornhuskers to win where it counts.

DAVID BANKS

Giants / Redskins Over 50

The Washington Redskins (5-6, 6-5 ATS) are playing to keep their playoff hopes alive while the New York Giants (7-4, 5-5-1 ATS) are trying to extend their NFC East lead when the teams meet at FedEx Field in Landover, MD on Monday night at 8:35 ET on ESPN. The Redskins have now won two straight games after a big road win vs. the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington on Thanksgiving Day that tied them with Dallas for second place in the division two games behind New York, while the Giants seemed rejuvenated in their first game following a bye, surprisingly blowing out the Green Bay Packers with ease 38-10 last Sunday night after losing back-to-back non-conference games before the bye.

Giants' quarterback Eli Manning had been in a three-game funk before the demolition of the Packers, but the bye must have done him some good as he had his best game in about a month in prime time Sunday, passing for 249 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. He was still not as sharp as he was earlier in the year however as he completed only 16 of his 30 passes, but at least he is now trending in the right direction. Manning now had a good chance to return to his vintage form as he will be throwing against a Washington pass defense that is ranked 31st out of 32 NFL teams at a dreadful 301.4 yards per game, ahead of only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Manning took advantage of the Redskins' secondary in the first meeting between these teams in New Jersey, passing for 337 yards in a 27-23 victory where he hit Victor Cruz with the game winning touchdown in the final moments.

The Redskins played almost the perfect game offensively in that first meeting while accumulating 480 total yards, as quarterback Robert Griffin III completed 20-of-28 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns and added 89 rushing yards on only nine carries, while running back Alfred Morris added 120 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry. Washington also won the Time of Possessions battle by about five minutes, but apparently they needed to win it by 1:13 more, as that is how much time was left when that atrocious Washington secondary somehow allowed Cruz to get behind it for the winning 77-yard bomb. The Skins have no pass rush right now with their two best pass rushers Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker both on Injured Reserve, and they put no pressure on Manning in the first meeting while recording only one sack. There is no reason to believe that Manning will have any less time to find wide open receivers in this game, especially after the New York offensive line looked so great last week while allowing only one sack vs. a Green Bay pass rush that ranked second in the NFL in sacks with 34 entering this weekend.

The Giants have always been Road Warriors under Coach Tom Coughlin, going an amazing 38-16-1 ATS their last 55 games away from home including their two Super Bowl runs where they went a combined 5-0 both straight up and ATS on the road in the playoffs. Also, the Redskins are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games on grass, which is not a good thing when your home games are on the natural surface.

Wunderdog

Portland at Charlotte
Pick: Portland +1

The Charlotte Bobcats were a disgraceful team a season ago. However, bad teams have good stretches during the course of a long season. It happens that Charlotte's good run where they went 5-1 in a six game stretch came early and has this bad team, looking like they are on the improve. The problem is that in the rest of their games, outside the six game streak, they are 2-7, and that is more likely the team they are, so definate line value here on Portland. The Blazers are on a long road trip, and finally broke through with an OT win at Cleveland. They should get a bounce off their win with another very winnabe game tonight. The Bobcats are just 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 at home, including 8-22-1 ATS here vs. a team with a losing road record. Play on Portland.

Art Aronson

L.A. Clippers vs. Utah
Pick: Over

The Clippers have played in games that have seen the total fly OVER in four of the last six games and nine of 15 this year. The Jazz have seen the OVER total in nine of 17.

The Clippers have gotten a boost with the return of Chancey Billups. The Clips have won two straight while scoring 217 points in the process. LA's other team is averaging 100.6 points per game this year, seventh most in the NBA.

Clips big man Blake Griffin has averaged 24.3 points per game and 12.7 rebounds in six career games against the Jazz.

The Jazz will be hungry for a win on home court, having lost their last two straight on the road to the Thunder and the Rockets. The Jazz have not been able to keep their opponents from scoring big of late, allowing the Rockets and the Thunder to go off for a total 230 points in the last two games. Utah has allowed its opponent to score over 100 points in five of the last six games.

The Jazz score an average 99.4 points a game while also allowing opponents 99.4 points per game on the season. The Jazz are a cool 6-0 SU on home court.

Teddy Covers

Portland vs. Charlotte
Pick: Charlotte

Charlotte was the worst team in NBA history last year. But a new coach, a rebuilt roster and a handful of early season wins has this team feeling fairly confident these days. The betting markets remember what happened under Paul Silas and his son in 2011-12.

The current Bobcats roster has very little connection with that squad, a pointspread bargain in early season play. They’ve already matched last seasons’ win total, and have a winning SU record at home so far.

Kemba Walker is developing into a fine young point guard, reminiscent of his national championship season at UConn, making great decisions with the basketball particularly during crunch time of the fourth quarter. He's a winner, plain and simple. Head coach Mike Dunlap: "''He's setting the culture for us. There's a lot on his plate, but he can handle it." Ramon Sessions and Ben Gordon have provided instant offense on the wing. Rookies Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jeffrey Taylor are all over the floor -- real stats stuffers. Byron Mullins, Bismack Biyambo and Brendan Haywood are playing terrific defense in the low post, and Mullins is a tough matchup for opposing defenders with his long range shooting touch. This team isn't going to compete for a championship this year, but don't be shocked to see them competing for the final playoff spot in the East.

Charlotte has lost three straight, the last two in tight, competitive games – they’re hungry to get back on the winning track tonight. Portland, on the other hand, just snapped a nasty four game skid with a wild, exhausting, double OT win at Cleveland on a Nicholas Batum three pointer with 0.2 seconds left on the clock. For a team with very little bench depth and very little defensive acumen – ranked #29 in defensive field goal percentage allowed – I don’t expect Portland to be able to notch a second consecutive road win here. Take the Bobcats.

Jimmy Boyd

Cleveland Cavaliers +5

Saturday's upset loss at home to Portland put the Cavaliers in a very profitable situation tonight. Consider that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that check in off an upset loss at home, provided they have won 25.0 percent of their games or fewer on the season and are matched up against a team with a losing record, are 25-6 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 5.7 points on average but have lost by only 1.5 points on average.

The Cavs are just 2-9 on the road this season, but they are 7-4 ATS in those games and have covered the number in each of their last four road contests. Also, we can expect the Cavs to be very motivated here because the last time they visited Detroit they were handed an embarrassing 116-77 defeat.

The Pistons are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games versus teams that have a losing record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams with a winning percentage below .400.

The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Detroit. Take the points.