Jeff Scott Sports
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3 UNIT PLAYS
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Ole Miss -3 over Georgia Tech: When teams have been given time to prepare for the Triple Option of Georgia Tech they have had success vs it. Last year Tech did beat USC 21-7 in a bowl game, but still they have won just 1 of their last 8 bowl games and have been held to just 14.4 ppg in their last 5 bowl games. Teams can stop this offense with time to prepare. The Ole Miss defense is not great against the run, but better than average, ranking 54th, allowing 155 ypg on the ground for the year. The Ole Miss offense has been very good this year, ranking 23rd in yards (473.4 ypg), while scoring 30.4 ppg. Georgia Tech has been solid on defense this year, but they have struggled mightily on the road, allowing 40.8 ppg in their last 4 on the road and they did allow 41 points to SEC foe Georgia in the final game of the year and that was a bulldog offense that was without Aaron Murray. This game will be played in SEC country and I just don't see Georgia Tech coming up with enough points to keep this one close.
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Navy/ Middle Tennessee Over 56.5: The Blue Raiders come into this game very hot offensively as they scored 42.6 ppg in their lats 5 games of the regular season. They only scored 21 ppg vs bowl team this year, but the beginning of their last 5 game stretch was vs Marshall and they scored 51 points in that game. The Navy offense has been solid all year, scoring 24.3 ppg overall, including 42 ppg in their last 5 games of the year. Navy also average 25 ppg vs bowl teams, including scoring 34 on Notre Dame. Both offenses are very good and these defenses can be scored upon. The Blue Raiders weakness on defense a run defense that ranks 84th in the nation, giving 185.8 ypg on the ground and that is not good news when your about to face the potent ground attack of the Midshippmen. For Navy, they are 85th vs the run, while the Blue Raiders come in ranked 29th in rushing. Both teams will look to defense the run here, but that should open up a few throwing lanes for some big plays down field. Navy faced just 3 bowl teams this year and they allowed 35+ in two of the three (Duke & Notre Dame), while the Blue Raiders have allowed 37 ppg in their in their 5 games vs bowl teams, giving up 34 or more in 4 of those games. Just because both teams are run based offenses doesn't mean we cant get at least 60 in this one. Both offenses will get some big plays vs theses week defenses, giving us a game that will be played in the 60's.
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2 UNIT PLAY
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Texas Tech/ Arizona State over 71.5: The ASU offense is highly explosive, as they average 41 ppg, behind a pretty balanced offense that averages 184 ypg on the ground and and 277 ypg through the air. Tough offense to stop and they will be facing a TT defense that has allowed 31.2 ppg on the year, but an even worse 48.6 ppg during their 5 game losing streak. Offensively, the Red Raiders are 9 in the nation overall and 2nd in passing, while scoring 35.7 ppg and even though Mayfield is not here, they still have Davis Webb, who threw for the same amount of yards as Mayfield did (2315) and he had 4 more TD passes (16) than Mayfield did. Davis is more than capable of putting up big numbers in this one, even though ASU is 49th in the nation vs the pass, allowing just 221.4 ypg. ASU should be good for about 45 in this one, while TT should put up 30+ of their own. Sit back and enjoy the fireworks here.
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1 UNIT PLAY
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Texas +14.5 Over Oregon: Motivation. Who Has It? I have to believe that Texas does, after all they will be saying good buy to their head coach of 16 years after this game. They should be highly motivated for this one. Oregon on the other hand, not so much. After spending much of the year in the BCS title picture they didn't even rate a January 1st Bowl. Can't really see them up for this one. I think the Texas defense can slow them down enough to get the cover here.
Steve Janus
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Dallas Mavericks +5
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The Mavericks are showing some solid value as a 5-point underdog against the Timberwolves. Dallas will certainly be motivated after losing two highly contested games to the Timberwolves earlier this season. The Mavericks are 82-55 (60%) ATS in their last 137 road games when playing with double-revenge. Adding to this is the fact that Dallas is a respectable 26-15 ATS in their last 41 road games when listed as an underdog and 24-12 ATS in their last 36 road games when the total is at or greater than 200 points.
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There's also a strong system favoring Dallas. Road teams who feature are an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 69-37 (65.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
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Middle Tenn. St. / Navy Over 56.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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An open here of 55 but a very quick move to the present number so we are getting the best number possible with this one. Both teams peaking offensively and both having some D issues at the close of the season. MTS is likely to speed play up for this one as well. I have the fair number as much higher than what is posted and therefore I am playing it on what should be a nice weather day in Fort Worth for some offensive football.
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Middle Tennessee +6½ over NavyFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s sometimes easy to get influenced by things you read or hear when it comes to these Bowl games that involve teams we don’t see much of. Case in point is this game, where you are going to read about the Midshipmen’s wicked running game and record breaking QB. Navy QB, Keenan Reynolds broke the NCAA single-season mark for rushing touchdowns with 29 and its overall running game ranked second in the FBS with an average of 322 rushing yards per game. The Midshipmen also defeated Pitt and lost to Notre Dame by just four points, which also increases their appeal. However, those two decent showings against recognized programs were a bit misleading, as Pitt held a significant edge in time of possession (35 minutes to 25 minutes) and outgained them as well. Fact is, Navy is a one-dimensional team that ranked 122nd in passing. They lost to Duke 35-7, they lost to Western Kentucky 19-7 and they also lost to Toledo in double OT.
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The Blue Raiders are a more balanced offensive squad that also features an outstanding running game. Middle Tennessee is a resident of C-USA and this bowl season has seen other members of that conference do very well in this year’s slate of bowl games. East Carolina won its bowl game over Ohio by 17 points. Marshall defeated Maryland 31-20, Tulane had a nice showing against Louisiana in a 3-point loss. Rice has yet to play but in the C-USA championship game, Rice defeated Marshall 41-24. Mid Tennessee’s four losses this year came against North Carolina, who also won a Bowl game on the weekend, BYU, East Carolina and North Texas. The Blue Raiders defeated Marshall down the stretch and went on to win their last five games by scoring 42 or more in four of them. Motivation or lack thereof is always worth considering in these games and in that regard, Mid Tennessee should have plenty. They finished 8-4 last season and were left out of a Bowl game and so this will be its first Bowl appearance since 2009. C-USA is proving to be an undervalued conference this season and with 6½-points being offered in a very close matchup, we’ll gladly step in and take the points in a game the Blue Raiders have every bit a chance of winning as the favorite.
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Mississippi -3 over Georgia TechFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgia Tech finished the year with a double OT loss to Georgia a blew a 20-point lead in that contest. They went 5-3 in the ACC and 7-5 overall but they also got whacked by just about every good team they faced. Against Clemson in their biggest game of the season up to that point, the Yellow Jackets were destroyed, 55-31. Against then #14 Miami, the Yellow Jackets were torched by 45 points and lost by 15. They also lost 38-20 to BYU. The Yellow Jackets biggest win this season came against whom? One could argue that Georgia Tech did not have a single notable win, especially when it counted most. Jackets coach Paul Johnson doesn’t seem very adept at preparing his troops for a Bowl game, as evidenced by his 1-4 record in Bowl games. The Jackets will now face perhaps the most underrated team in this year’s group of bowl game participants.
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The Rebels are undervalued because they lost five of their past nine games after opening the year 3-0. However, when comparing power-conference teams and players to how they fared throughout the season, they are always graded by they how they did against the SEC. The SEC is by far the best conference in the country. Ole Miss played Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, LSU, Missouri, Mississippi State and Vandy. Indeed the Rebels lost most of those games but they did defeat LSU and Vanderbilt and after playing against some of the best teams in the nation, this one should appear in slow motion for the Rebels. Ole Miss is loaded with great players at the skilled positions. Tech QB, Vad Lee is a mistake waiting to happen and if the Jackets aren’t picking up big yards on the ground they will be in serious trouble here. A more skilled and better prepared Ole Miss team has a chance to roll over this middle of the pack ACC team.
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TEXAS +14½ over OregonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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You certainly don’t need us to tell you that the Oregon Ducks are the better squad and should bury the Longhorns if all things were equal. Well, all things are not equal. The Bowl games take on an entirely different feel from the regular season and there are specific criteria one must apply when fading the chalk. Momentum or a lack of down the stretch is one of those intangibles we like to consider. In that regard, the Ducks lost two of their last four games to squash their chances of playing in a BCS Bowl. Are the Ducks likely to be excited about this game? Likely not. Oregon appeared to be a sure bet to appear in a BCS Bowl game with a good chance to win a National Championship. Oregon has appeared in a BCS Bowl game every season since 2008 and this season they will appear in this Valero Alamo Bowl. That’s like playing an exhibition game after winning the Super Bowl.
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Meanwhile, the Longhorns figure to be plenty motivated. First, the game will be played in-state and therefore Texas will have huge fan support. Secondly, Texas Coach Mack Brown will step down after this game after 16 years of pacing the sidelines for the Longhorns. The players will be jacked up to give their beloved coach a memorable sendoff. And it’s not like the Longhorns don’t have talent because they do. Texas defeated #12 Oklahoma earlier in the season and they also went on to win seven of their past nine games. When you play ranked versus unranked you are going to pay a premium almost every time to do so. When that ranked team can put up points seemingly at will, you can throw in another couple of points. What we have here is an inflated line on a disappointed team playing in a hostile environment against a hugely motivated group. That works for us.
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SAN DIEGO VS LOYOLA MARYMOUNTVlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: SAN DIEGO +5.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Conference play is now getting underway in college basketball, which means much of my focus will be on games being played in this part of the country. With 351 teams playing D1 hoops this season, it’s not really possible to keep close tabs on all of them. My best advice is to focus on the leagues where you can get a real feel for the teams, and it’s a policy I adhere to myself.
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Tonight’s WCC clash between San Diego and Loyola Marymount is one that interests me. The Greyhounds were sensational on Saturday as they whipped BYU. The same cannot be said for the Toreros, who struggled with their defense in a loss at Pepperdine.
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There are a couple of factors I like that are in play here. In leagues where they have the wraparound weekend sets, I will frequently look to play on teams that did not play well in the first game, particularly if they’re matched up with a team that perhaps played over its head in their Saturday game. That looks to be the case here. I also like to take my chances with good defensive underdogs.
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San Diego fits on both counts. The Toreros didn’t defend well against the Waves, so I expect them to tighten things up and get back to their normal numbers here. As for Loyola, Max Good’s troops were probably as good as they can be against BYU, and it’s also possible they could bounce a bit after stunning the Cougars.
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If there’s one specific that could be key tonight, it’s the three point shooting for Loyola. The Greyhounds aren’t good at all from long range, but they were terrific against BYU. If they’re nailing the bombs again tonight, this play is in trouble. But if Loyola regresses to its norm, that should turn out to be a plus for USD.
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The number on this game is right where it ought to be based on the power ratings. But I like the dual bounce possibility here, and with that in mind I’ll side with San Diego plus the points tonight.
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Charlotte Bobcats + over Utah JazzFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bobcats have lost back-to-back games but they were defeated by just four against Oklahoma City, holding the Thunder to just 89 points and then Saturday they lost in overtime in Atlanta in the second of back-to-back games. The Bobcats are the #2 team in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Charlotte should enter this matchup hungry coming off a loss to Utah at home last week, a game Charlotte had a rebounding edge but shot poorly at the line and from 3-point range. Despite some recent signs of improvement Utah is still just 9-24 S/U on the season including only 4-10 S/U in home games. Utah is dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency and the Jazz are only nominally superior to Charlotte on offense. There is nearly a five percent gap in the field goal percentage allowed for the season between these teams and Charlotte has been a dominant underdog this season, going 16-5 ATS this season as a dog. The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS on the road vs. losing teams while the Jazz have struggled against fellow losing squads, going 2-6 ATS including just 0-3 ATS at home in those more favorable matchups. This spread suggests only a slight edge in valuation for the Bobcats but the numbers suggest a massive chasm between these teams and unlike most squads that visit Salt Lake City, Charlotte has recent revenge motivation while also entering this game off two tough losses to quality teams.
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OREGON -14 over TexasFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This is it for Texas Head Coach Mack Brown a class act who has done a great job at Texas but, as we wrote about in the Bondi Bulletin in September, was out-recruited and out-coached over the last few years to many times. Once Oregon's bid for a national championship went down the drain with a loss to Stanford the Ducks slept walked through wins over Utah and Oregon State and got pounded by Arizona. But our Oregon insiders have told us that the Ducks have had 3 good weeks of practice and Oregon Head Coach Mark Helfrich has confided to friends that he can't wait to get back on the field and show the country "the real roll it up Ducks." Oregon's up-tempo spread offense is similar to Baylor's and the Bears rolled up 508 total yards in a 30-10 win over the Longhorns in the regular-season finale. Similar result today. Ducks spoil Mack's retirement party.
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Texas Tech vs. Arizona StateFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Texas Tech +14.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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How about these Red Raiders, they opened the season with seven straight wins (4 in the Big-12) and then the lose their final five games all in conference play. Arizona State who was favored in the PAC-12 Championship Game over Stanford have been 'heavy' favorites all year. They were favored by 5 over Wisconsin and needed officials help to win (no cover). The Sun Devils were expecting to be playing in the Rose bowl and San Diego is a major disappointment as they play to day's before New Years! Both these clubs have high-powered offenses and defenses that can be exploited. I look for a high scoring affair.
River City Sharps
Mississippi -3
This bowl game is a story of two teams that both struggled to finish out the regular season. Ole Miss started the season 3-0, highlighted by an early-season win over Texas. Georgia Tech also started the year 3-0, highlighted by a convincing 38-14 win over Duke. Towards the end of the season, however, it seems like Paul Johnson had lost his team and Tech wasn't playing the string out well. Obviously, Tech wants to run the ball and the Ole Miss defense hasn't been particularly good at stopping the pass. This ganme is a clear contrast in styles, but we are going to lean towards the SEC team in this spot. Ole Miss HC Freeze is 7-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of the Rebels and he is 11-2 ATS in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. With a month to prepare, Ole Miss figures out a way to stop the run, the only way Tech can really beat you. Make sure you get this line at -3 or better...don't get hooked!
Chris Jordan
My free play for Monday night is on the West coast, and out of the West Coast Conference, where I like Loyola-Marymount minus the small number against the San Diego Toreros. This does have the makings of a good game, but ya know, after seeing how well the Lions did against BYU the other night, I have to believe coach Max Good has his troops buying into his philosophies.
Talk about a meeting of great coaches - two great guys - when Good and BYU coach Dave Rose clashed the other night, you're talking about two of college basketball's best overall personalities. It was the Lions' third-straight win after a brutal four-game stretch of playing away from home, and going 1-3 in the process.
San Diego has been hit or miss since a 5-0 start to the season, and comes in having lost four of its last six, including Saturday's setback in Malibu, 75-64, to Pepperdine. The Toreros started above Los Angeles for their game with the Waves, and have made their way down the PCH to L.A., for this game tonight, on their way back to San Diego.
On the flipside, the Lions have been home since Dec. 17, will have the home crowd boosting morale and momentum and they'll be looking to open conference play 2-0 before hitting the road for four straight conference games.
This one makes sense, with all the right components and intangibles in place. Lay the home chalk.
3♦ LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Jeff Benton
Monday freebie is the Suns plus the points at the Clippers.
Phoenix has been money in the bank on the road this season, as they hit Lob City having covered 11 of their 14 road games this year.
The Suns have been a pretty tough out in general lately, as they have won outright in 9 of their last 11 games overall.
As for the Clippers, they have protected their home floor to a tune of 13-2 straight up, but the linemakers have made it tough on them, as the Clips are just 8-7 against the spread in those home games this year.
This is the first meeting of the season, and while the Clippers have taken 3 of the last 4 meetings straight up, it is the Suns that hold the 6-4 straight up advantage the last 10 times these teams have faced one another.
Grab the points as the Suns stay competitive once again.
2♦ PHOENIX
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Timberwolves to continue their dominance over the Dallas Mavericks in Minneapolis.
I'm aware that the Mavs have a better overall record than Minnesota, but we all know how bad the Mavs are on the road and the only place Minnesota seems to be able to win is at home (9-4).
The Wolves have already beaten Dallas twice this year (once in Dallas, which is rare) and have taken six of the last nine meetings... regardless of venue. Granted, they do play better at home but they clearly aren't scared to go to Dallas and play.
In their two wins this year, the Wolves have absolutely run through the porous Dallas D, scoring 116 and 112 points, forgetting defense and simply trying to outscore and outrebound the Mavs and let the rest take care of itself.
And speaking of rebounding... how big of an advantage on the boards do you think Minnesota has? Let me just put it to you this way... Kevin Love leads his team in total rebounds with 448. Over 30 games that's pretty freaking good.
Dallas's leading rebounder? Shawn Marion. How many? 267. You get my point.
Minnesota keeps it's winning streak against Dallas going tonight with a 110-100 win.
4♦ MINNESOTA
Scott Delaney
My free play for Monday night is in the NBA, where I am playing the Los Angeles Clippers against the Phoenix Suns.
I would assume most sports bettors would like the Over, or the Underdog in this one, thus, I'll be the contrarian and play the right side of this game - the home favored clippers.
I know Phoenix has won four of its last five games, including a 115-101 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers this past Saturday, covering as a 10.5-point favorite, but what I don't like is how mediocre this team while playing with luggage.
The Suns are shooting par on the road this season, with a 7-7 SU mark, and that includes a 5-6 mark versus Western Conference opponents. So as good as the Suns have been of late, the fact they like to get out on the break and even the fact they've somewhat owned this series - it plays into the Clippers' hands.
Los Angeles likes the uptempo game, it's playing at home - where it is 13-2 straight-up this season - and that includes a 10-1 mark against Western Conference teams.
If the Suns think they can just waltz in and challenge the league leader in home scoring, as the Clippers average 111 points at 1111 S. Figueroa Street (yeah, I threw the street address in there purposely since it matches the average), they might want to figure out a different strategy than getting in a shootout.
Don't get sucked into a trap here, as the Clippers have covered five of six after one day's rest, four of five in intradivision play, seven of nine against Western Conference foes and six of eight overall.
Lay the home chalk.
2♦ L.A. CLIPPERS
Brad Wilton
Portland is my free play tonight, as I like the Blazers to shake off a tough loss at home to Miami their last time out with the road win and cover at New Orleans.
The Blazers were a 3-point home court winner over the Pelicans just before Christmas in a game New Orleans took against the spread. That close shave will have Portland on guard in the Big Easy, as they know full well the Pelicans are not going to roll over and die in this spot.
New Orleans does enter with a 3-0-1 spread mark their last 4 times on the floor, and with their cover in Rip City on the 21st are also 5-0 the last 5 meetings versus the Blazers spread-wise!
Those numbers are solid, but also consider that Portland has proven they can play away from home this year, going 12-3 straight up on the road, and 10-5 against the spread in those road games.
Portland may be on an 0-5 series spread run, but they have won 6 of the last 8 in the series straight up, and with this game priced at a reasonable number, I see no reason to think the Blazers won't be able to notch both the straight up and against the spread victory.
2♦ PORTLAND
Brett Atkins
My complimentary winner for Monday is in the NBA, where I am playing the New Orleans Pelicans plus the points at home against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Anyone else wondering why the line is so low, with a Portland team that is 24-6 on the year, against the Pelicans, who are 13-15? It has nothing to do with home and away intangibles, cause I've seen much bigger lines with road teams.
These two just met less than 10 days ago, in Portland, and the Pelicans challenged the Blazers in a three-point loss.
And personally, I think the Pelicans can win this game outright, after Portland just lost a heartbreaker, 108-107, to the Miami Heat Saturday night at home in the Moda Center. Chris Bosh's 3-pointer as time expired might have been the worst thing to happen to the Blazers, who now have a vicious sandwich game in the Big Easy.
Portland follows this game with a trip to Oklahoma City tomorrow night, and my mind tells me the Blazers are still stinging from Bosh's rainbow trey, and are more concerned about tomorrow's game against the Thunder, a game that could determine first place in the Northwest Division.
New Orleans ranks fifth in the NBA in steals, averaging 8.89 per game, and I think you're going to see it playing aggressive basketball tonight, looking to rattle the Blazers at home, where the Pelicans hold a 9-7 advantage in this series.
Take the home pup in this game.
3♦ NEW ORLEANS