Jack Jones
New Orleans Pelicans +3
The Portland Trail Blazers are way overvalued due to their 24-6 start this season. They should not be a 3-point favorite at New Orleans, which is playing much better since Anthony Davis returned from injury.
These teams just met on December 21 with the Blazers coming away with a 110-107 home win as an 8-point favorite. That will have the Pelicans in revenge mode tonight, and I look for them to win outright to get their payback.
Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series of late. The home team has gone a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings. The Pelicans are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Blazers as well.
Portland is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall. New Orleans is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games overall. The Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division foes. Bet the Pelicans Monday.
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OTTAWA -½ +138 over WashingtonFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Capitals certainly deserved a better fate in Buffalo yesterday after outshooting the Sabres 50-17 in a 2-1 OT loss. That’s quite a change because it’s usually the Capitals that are being badly outshot while winning games. Now Washington will play its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. We keep insisting that the Capitals are going to regress and nothing in its play over the past month suggests otherwise. The Capitals join the Maple Leafs, Sabres, Flames and Oilers as one of the bottom five teams in shots allowed on net per game. Is there a correlation between winning/losing and shots allowed per game? Damn right there is. The teams that have allowed the least amount of shots on net per game are Chicago, Anaheim, Vancouver, St. Louis, Los Angeles, New Jersey and Pittsburgh. The teams with that have allowed the most are Toronto, Washington, Edmonton, Calgary and Buffalo. Right there we have the best teams on top and the worst teams on the bottom and it’s no coincidence. It’s been like that forever. The proof is in the pudding that the Capitals cannot sustain their winning percentage when they keep giving up twice as many quality scoring chances than they are creating.
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The Senators have won back-to-back home games against the Penguins and Bruins while scored nine times in doing so. Having a roster that is loaded with talent and underachieving the entire year, Ottawa may be ready to make an inevitable move up the standings. The Sens have defeated the Capitals five in a row and they should make it six as long as Craig Anderson doesn’t choke. The Sens could have a big second half, as they are once again beginning to impose their will on the opposition in much the same way as they did last season.
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Detroit +103 over NASHVILLEFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Predators are still a grind it out, structured team that seldom gets away from that style. They usually hang around and never stop working but some distractions could change that for this game. The HBO 24/7 cameras are rolling and the crew will be walking around Bridgestone Arena all day filming everything and covering the game as well. Can the Predators stay calm and not pay attention to all the bright lights? Probably not. Should Nashville stray from its game and try to showcase themselves, they are likely to get beat and it sure doesn’t help that the spotlight will be on one of their two rookie goaltenders, who combined have some of the worst stats in the game. Nashville has allowed 23 goals against over their past six games and many of those goals were of the soft variety.
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The Red Wings are not having a good year but they have been decimated by injuries and they have one of the best road records in the NHL at 12-3-3. The Red Wings have many healthy bodies back including Henrik Zetterberg and all of their d-men. Detroit has allowed 23 shots on net or fewer in three of the past four games and that coincides with the return of their defensemen. Not surprisingly, Detroit won all three of those games. Unlike the Preds, the Red Wings are used to the bright lights with a slew of players that have collectively appeared in as many big games as any group of players in the league. The Red Wings will not be intimidated by it (not to mention they’ve thrived since the cameras started rolling) while the Preds may be shaking in their blue suede skates.
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VANCOUVER -½ +116 over PhiladelphiaSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Flyers have had some big rallies recently both for and against. On Saturday night they rallied from two down to defeat the Oilers in OT. Prior to the break, Philly rallied from a three-goal third period deficit to defeat the Jackets. In a recent game against the Caps, Philadelphia blew a three-goal lead with under 12 minutes left in the third before succumbing in OT. Also in a recent game against Columbus, the Flyers were outscored 4-1 in the third period in a 6-3 loss. The point is, Philadelphia is an erratic team that is all over the place in terms of their defensive play and lack of structure. That style is not likely to benefit them against the well-structured Canucks.
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Vancouver came off the break and a full weeks rest in a typical 2-0 victory last night in Calgary. The Canucks figure to be sharper here in the second game back. The Canucks don’t give up much. They have allowed two goals or fewer in regulation time in 11 of their past 12 games. In half of those games, the Canucks allowed one goal or less and in a recent three-game set against Carolina, Edmonton and Boston, they outscored that trio 12-2. Vancouver has won three in a row and while allowing three goals against and that includes a 3-2 OT win over Chicago. Vancouver is thriving again with a relentless fore-check, strong defense and great goaltending and that’s a style these Flyers are not comfortable playing against.
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Vancouver Canucks -132FFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Canucks improve to 23-11-6 on the year with a 2-0 victory last night vs Calgary where they out shot the Flames 30-18. The Flyers are playing much better hockey right now as they've won 4 of 5 to improve to 18-16-4 on the season. They are just 7-9-4 on the road this year, while the Canucks are 11-5-3 at home. Playing the second of a back to back shouldn't bother Vancouver as last night was their first game back since the break, and they aren't traveling far from Calgary. They are also 4-0 in their last 4 games on 0 days rest. The Canucks have won 10 of their last 12 games overall and are 5-1 in their last 6 vs Eastern Conference opponents. They have also won 6 straight home games and are 44-17 in their last 61 home games vs a team with a road winning % under .400. The Flyers are just 4-9 in their last 13 vs a team with a winning record, 1-5 in their last 6 road games and 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record. These two teams met back in October in Philadelphia and the Canucks managed to win that game on the road by a score of 3-2. The elite teams in the Western Conference seem to be taking care of most of their games vs the Eastern Conference teams, and with the Canucks winners of 10 of their last 12 games and 6 straight at home I like that trend to continue tonight. Take the Canucks at a generous price at home.
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Detroit Red Wings +111FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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For most teams 18-13-9 is a pretty good start, for the Red Wings, it feels like it has been a losing season almost. However, with the Winter Classic in their sights on New Years, the Wings are beginning to get healthy at the right time. Goalie Jimmy Howard could make his first start since weeks ago, and Henrik Zetterberg returned from a herniated disk against the Panthers Saturday night. Zetterberg made his presence felt right away, scoring in his first game back. If Howard is able to go, it is good news, as he has a 3-1 record and 1.01 GAA in his last four games against the Predators. In addition, forward Justin Abdelkader should be returning from a concussion as well. Darren Helm, who has been on the IR since early December, also may be ready to go tonight against Nashville. Traveling to Nashville shouldn't bother the Wings too much, as they sport a terrific 12-3-0-3 record on the road. The Wings averages aren't spectacular at 2.55 goals per game and 2.63 against, but keep in mind, they have been without their starting goaltender for a great portion of the season, and one of their most dynamic offensive players. For a team that notoriously prides itself on playing stingy defense has been anything but lately. During a four-game stretch of losses from the 19th to the 27th, the Preds allowed in four or more goals in each outing. The goals aren't coming, which isn't unusual for them at 2.28 per game, but that won't work when you're struggling to keep the puck out of your own net. Nashville has dropped five out of their last six games. I expect a healthier Red Wings squad to add to their misery tonight. I think the Wings are dogs in this spot because of the look ahead spot to the Winter Classic, but I think they will be fine away from the hoopla in Detroit. I'll take the Red Wings at what I think is a nice price.
River City Sharps
Oklahoma St -25
The Colonials from Robert Morris travel to Oklahoma St to take on the #6 Cowboys. They are in the top 10 in scoring avg over 86 ppg and shoot about 50%. They have an advantage here on the glass avg over 38 boards compared to 32 for the Colonials and play good D as well holding opponents to less than 38% shooting. The Colonials have decent numbers avg 74.5 ppg and shoot just over 44% but they don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Cowboys. It’s a big number, but the Sharps actually see some value here with the home team.
Dave Price
Dallas Mavericks +4
The Mavs have lost their first two meetings with Minnesota so they will be very focused here. They check in off a blowout victory in Chicago, which is a good sign considering they are 38-18-2 ATS in their last 58 games following a win of more than 10 points. Minnesota is coming off a lopsided victory over the Bucks but is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games following a win and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points. Dallas has been a terrific investment on the road where it is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games overall and 7-1 ATS in its last 8 versus teams that have a home winning percentage greater than .600. The road team is 22-6 ATS in the last 28 meetings in this series, and the Mavericks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Minnesota. Take the points.
Steve Rosen
Washington Wizards vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Washington Wizards +3
Some might call tonights game for Detroit revenge after getting destroyed by the Wizards 106-82. Wash has covered the last 4 out of 5 ATS games on the road! Detroit is 1-3 ATS at home. After watching the game last night it is clear, Washington is on fire and knows Detroit's game.The Wizards have won four of five, and their 24-point plastering of the Pistons on Saturday marked their largest margin of victory this season. Detroit has dropped three straight and five of six at home and has been out of sorts in its two games since Christmas, failing to get back on transition defense and playing weak interior defense.