Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Tulsa/ Iowa State Over 51.5: Tulsa's offense is a run first offense but they do put up 35 ppg and teams have been opening up their offense a bit more. Tulsa will use their run game to set up some big pays down field. Tulsa does average 240 ypg on the ground and 220 ypg through the air, making this balanced offense hard to defend. They will be taking on a Cyclone defense that allowed 441 ypg, including 280 ypg through the air. The Cyclones do allow just 23.3 ppg, but I feel that Tulsa will find a way to put more points than that on the board. Iowa State mad a late switch at QB to Sam Richardson and he had a good showing in helping the Cyclones put up 75 points in their last 2 games. Tulsa's defense is not easy to move the ball on, but they still allowed 24.2 ppg on the year, including 27.7 ppg in their last 3 games. These teams put up 61 points in the first meeting and could come close to that in this one.
Wunderdog
New Mexico at Saint Louis
Pick: Saint Louis -4.5
The New Mexico Lobos are off to a 13-1 start on the season and could find it difficult to get the energy level up where it is going to need to be vs. a competent Saint Louis team that is out of the gate at 9-3, winning 8 of 9 on home hardwood. The Lobos knocked the Cincinnati Bearcats from the ranks of the unbeaten with a physical hard fought game that ended in a one point decision for the Lobos. The Billikens are deep and experienced and like to control the tempo. They don't beat themselves, as they turn the ball over less than 11 times a contest. The Billikens are sustaining momentum off a 20+ point win where they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11. Play on Saint Louis.
John Ryan
UNC-Greensboro at NC State
Play: UNC-Greensboro
The simulator shows a high probability that Greensboro will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-12 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1997. Play on road dogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and now facing an opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. Of course this is a mismatch on paper, but NC State has not done well ATS when facing inferior teams. They sport an imperfect 0-6 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers per game over the last 2 seasons. The line is inflated simply because of the ‘flash stats’ showing how poorly Greensboro has done and that NC State is ranked No. 23 in the nation. It is just far too many points given the situation and that State has no reason to make a fool of their state rival. State has used their bench far more in games like this one as a way to make the overall team stronger as they enter the January conference games that matter for more than this ‘scrimmage’. Take Greensboro to compete well enough to keep this game between 10 and 20 points.
Andre Gomes
Grizzlies / Pacers Under 178
Indiana will be playing their third game in four days, while Memphis had one day off to prepare for this game. The Pacers is coming from a road loss in Atlanta last Saturday night, where the Pacers were very poor on defense, with Roy Hibbert being benched in the fourth quarter exactly because of that. Indiana's coach Frank Vogel confirmed these defensive problems of his team by saying that "we made a lot of mistakes and had many, many breakdowns as well. We just didn't execute what our defensive schemes are all about."
On the other hand, Memphis is coming from a home win against Denver, where they held the potent Nuggets offense to just 72 points! The Grizzlies played so well in that game on defense that either the Pacers have a defensive bounce back today or they will be in huge trouble today as well. In theory, the Pacers defense has the skills to limit the Grizzlies offense. They have an excellent frontcourt defense and they are also a good defensive rebounding team. Indiana is #1 on points in the paint allowed per game and #5 on defensive rebounding in the league. With Roy Hibbert being humiliated on the team's last game, I expect him to have a big effort on defense tonight against Marc Gasol. Atlanta crushed Indiana's defense with a very good all-around game, especially on the perimeter with 13-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 10-20 treys! Memphis isn't a good team on the outside shooting, as in fact they are just shooting 32% 3pts over their last 10 games, so I believe they won't be able to repeat what the Hawks did against Indiana last Saturday.
Indiana's offense needs to have their post up game working to be effective. Indiana's offense relies around their post ups, spot ups, transitions and pick and rolls ball handler plays, however Memphis is a top defense is all these plays: #3 on post up defense, #8 on spot up defense, #9 on transition defense and #4 on pick and roll ball handler defense! This will be a naturally tough matchup for Indiana, as Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol will have Roy Hibbert and David West a big fight, while Tony Allen will be defending Paul George and Mike Conley defending a banged up George Hill. I see these two teams have clear defensive edges over their opponent's offense and therefore, I expect a super low scoring game in here. I'll be taking the Under on this contest.