Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, December 5

Carlo Campanella

Chargers at Jaguars
Play: Under

Oddsmakers post a low 39.5 TOTAL on Monday Night Football as both teams have had trouble finding the end zone. Jacksonville (3-8) is last in the NFL in offense and points scored, putting up 17 points or less in 6 STRAIGHT games since October 16th behind rookie QB Gabbert. Chargers (4-7) QB Rivers has struggled just as much as the rookie, with San Diego losing 6 STRAIGHT games since returning from their "Bye" week also on October 16th. QB Rivers is struggling even worse recently, putting up just 13, 17 and 20 points in his last 3 efforts. Things won't get any easier on the road in front of a national TV audience, as QB Rivers is just 1-5 ATS & 2-4 SU against Non-Division opponents this season and now faces a Jag's defensive unit that's held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 20 points or less. San Diego is now officially in the basement of the AFC West, trailing ALL 3 division rivals; Oakland (7-5), Denver (7-5) and even Kansas City (5-7). Doubt either team is primed for an explosive effort, so backing the UNDER as Jacksonville showed a bunch of heart during their 12-7 outright upset of the 9-3 Ravens during their first Monday Night Football performance of the year.

Vegas Experts

Boston at Pittsburgh
Play: Boston

Boston faces off against Pittsburgh tonight and seems very under-valued at +120 underdogs. Boston is 6-2-0 in all road games this season and has some momentum moving into this matchup off three nice wins over Toronto both at home (4-1) and on the road (6-3) and also against Winnipeg (4-2). Pittsburgh is coming off back to back wins over Washington and Carolina but look for them to struggle against Boston tonight. Boston is 14-8 SU as a road underdog of +100 to +150 and also 21-7 SU coming off back to back division games. Take the +120 Dog.

Rob Vinciletti

St Johns vs. Detroit U
Play: St John -1

St. Johns is just a 1 point favorite here in Detroit. However they have won 10 of 13 as a road favorite of 3 or less and 10 of their last 12 vs teams under .500. Detroit has not had much success vs Big East teams losing the last 7 times against them. Detroit has also lost 10 of 14 times as a home dog of 3 or less and check in at 2-8 ats off 3 or more ats losses. Look for St. Johns to get the win here tonight.

Sean Murphy

Phoenix Coyotes @ Chicago Blackhawks
PICK: Chicago Blackhawks

A little revenge should be in order as the Blackhawks host the Coyotes for the second time in less than a week.

Chicago saw its three-game winning streak in this series snapped in that 4-1 loss on November 29th. Keep in mind, that was a tough spot for the Blackhawks, as they were playing their first game back home following a six-game western road trip. It was no surprise that they came out flat.

Since that loss, Chicago has once again picked it up, winning back-to-back games over the Islanders and Blues. Friday's narrow shootout win over the lowly Isles may have been the wake-up call the 'Hawks needed, as they looked much sharper in Saturday's 5-2 rout of the Blues.

Chicago remains a strong play here at home, having posted an 8-2-2 record this season. The Coyotes are a respectable 7-4-1 on the road, but we've seen some regression lately, as they've dropped three of their last five away from home.

Phoenix enjoyed a nice run in November, but December hasn't been nearly as kind. In the 'Yotes first two games this month, they're winless, having scored only two goals in loss against Winnipeg and Philadelphia.

Going back to their road play for a moment; it's interesting to note that they're giving up just 2.2 goals per game despite allowing almost 30 shots per contest. They did a nice job against the Blackhawks last week, holding them to only 25 shots, but again, that was a difficult scheduling spot for Chicago. If the 'Yotes are unable to hold the 'Hawks under 30 shots tonight, they could get into some trouble, as Chicago has loads of offensive talent.

I like the way the schedule sets up for the Blackhawks here. They were off yesterday, and after tonight's game they'll enjoy two more days off before heading to Long Island to face the Islanders on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Coyotes are right back at it tomorrow night in Nashville.

All things considered, I think we're being asked to lay a reasonable amount of chalk with the superior team in this spot.

David Chan

Bruins @ Penguins
PICK: Under 5.5

The 16-7-1 Boston Bruins rumble into Pittsburgh to take on the 16-7-4 Penguins.

Tim Thomas is between the pipes for the Bruins in this first game of the back to back (on a plane over night and into Winnipeg for tomorrow's contest); Marc-Andre Fleury gets the start for the Pens.

Both teams come into this game red hot.

Thomas has a 1.76 GAA and three shutouts during the Bruins win streak.

The Pens are 5-1-1 with Crosby back in the lineup, dominating on both ends of the ice in Saturday's 3-2 win over the Hurricanes.

It's interesting to note that the road team won all four meetings last year.

A couple of the hottest goaltenders going head to head on Monday night; all signs point to a low-scoring affair!

Jim Feist

Elon vs NC Greensboro
Pick: Elon

Elon will be playing its eighth game of the year and second in Southern Conference play tonight when they travel to Greensboro. HC Matt Matheny returned two starters from last year's club, but must be happy with the Phoenix who are off to their best start since becomming Division 1 at 5-2 (1-0 in conference). A win tonight would be the best start for Elon dating back to the 1991-92 season. Elon has also done well against the number, going 4-1 this season and riding a four-game ATS winning streak. The Phoenix has some quality wins too, beating South Carolina and Princeton - both as big dogs. In fact, Elon has held each of its opponents to under 40% shooting from the field in its wins. UNC returns four starters for HC Mike Dement, however, unlike Elon, this has not resulted in good results. The Spartans are 2-6 to start the season (0-2 in conference) and 2-4 ATS. They are riding a three-game losing streak and have allowed less than 70 points in just two of their games. The Spartans not nearly the defensive club that Elon is and that will show here tonight. I look for the Phoenix to easily cover the 2 or 2 1/2 spread they opened at. Elon has won three straight in this series and I expect another dominating win tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

JACKSONVILLE +147 over San Diego

The Chargers have lost six in a row and it’s not like they lost all six to the Green Bay Packers of the world. No, the talented Chargers have lost to the Jets, Chiefs, Raiders and Denver. This is one of the most underachieving teams in the history of football. Attitude, desire, emotion and intangibles play a huge part in the outcome of these games and the Chargers lack them all. The Chargers slide has been caused by a defense that ranks no better than average against all positions and a quarterback that has gone from superstar to turnover machine. With every loss, Philip Rivers assures the media that nothing is wrong and that it was just a bad game. Norv Turner echoes the sentiment but the season is already over even in the AFC West. Turner is coaching his last games there and Rivers is trying to find a new way to say all is well. About the only person not saying that Philip Rivers is playing hurt is Rivers himself. He has 16 touchdowns on the season but 17 interceptions and four lost fumbles. Rivers has not been any better than the defenses allow him to be and goes against an above average secondary that has never allowed more than two touchdowns and eight of ten opponents were held to fewer than 200 passing yards. Also note the Jags have a new owner and a new coach and a honeymoon surge is quite possible. So, what we have here is a Jags team looking to make an impression for new coaches and new owners and that despite a lack of talent, shows up to play. The Chargers have way more talent but checked out a long time ago. Last week against Denver in its most important game of the year, the team team committed nine penalties en route to a home loss against a team that can’t complete a forward pass. Now we’re going to lay road points? We think not. Play: Jacksonville +147 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

FLORIDA -½ +135 over Washington

The Panthers return home from a four-game trip and that’s not a favorable spot but these Panthers play to win every game and rarely have we seen them unprepared. Florida has already lost to the Caps once this year in only meeting thus far and it was the Panthers worst performance of the season. After that last performance against Washington, don’t expect a similar one here. A lot of people are expecting a turnaround anytime now from these Caps. They finally get to hit the road for the first time since Dale Hunter took over and that’s probably a good thing. We’re not buying any of that. We’re sticking to our early season assessment of these Caps that they’re just not that good. There’s no switch. The Caps last four road games have been losses of 3-1, 4-1, 7-1 and 5-1. Since Hunter took over they’ve lost two of three and had it not been for an OT winner against Ottawa on Saturday they’d be a perfect 0-3. They were badly outplayed in two of those first three games. In six of its last 10 games, Washington has scored one goal. The Caps have three wins in their past 11 games and two of those wins came in OT. So yeah, the Caps can win this game but there’s no turnaround coming and we’ll continue to fade this visitor until the market makes the right adjustment. Play: Florida -½ +135 (Risking 2 units).

Boston +190 over PITTSBURGH (3-way betting line)

The Bruins are the well-deserved Stanley Cup winners and this year they look even better. They’re not just winning, they’re rolling over teams. The B’s can play any style and they can beat you playing any style. Boston has scored four goals or more seven of its last 10 games. The last time they lost in regulation was way back in late October. They’ve won 14 of those 15 games in regulation and there’s no reason they can’t win this one too. The Bruins also figure to bring a little extra here, as this is a foe that everyone gets up for and a fired up Bruins team is the most dangerous on the circuit. The Penguins will bring it too but they come in banged up and they’re clearly not blowing away the opposition. They’re coming off four, one-goal games in a row against the Rangers, Montreal, Washington and Carolina. They lost to the Rangers and the other three are not exactly the cream of the crop. The Bruins are the best team on ice right now and while this is going to be a tough game, the B’s have just as good a shot of winning and probably more than the Pens and therefore are a must play to win in regulation at this price. Play: Boston +190 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO -½ +108 over Phoenix

It was less than a week ago when the Coyotes were last here and they won 4-1 as a small pooch. That was a game the Coyotes were in a great spot, as Chicago was playing its first game back from an exhausting six-game, Western Canada/West Coast road swing. Since then, the Blackhawks have played twice and they should be much sharper this time around. The Blackhawks have the most potent offense in the league and right now they’re as healthy as they’ve been in three years. They’re coming off back-to-back five goal outbursts with the last occurring in St. Louis on Saturday against a previously stingy Blues squad. The Blackhawks have won four of five with only loss being that aforementioned game vs Phoenix. The Coyotes can beat anyone that doesn’t take them seriously. Talent wise, they’re far below the upper echelon of clubs in the NHL but they win because they refuse to get outworked. The Coyotes have dropped two in a row and now they’ll face a team looking for a little redemption and one that won’t take them lightly. Play: Chicago -½ +108 (Risking 2 units).

JR O'Donnell

Chargers / Jaguars Under 39

Tonight at 8:30 PM EST the members move goes to a Solid Under the total of 39 as the San Diego Chargers fly across the country to visit the Jacksonville Jaguars. Chargers are 4-7 (2-9 ATS) and have lost "6" straight, while the Jags are 3-8 (4-7 ATS), and are coming off "2" straight losses. This is a game with two QB that to say the least are struggling, and the Jags have not only fired their coach of "9" years, but the owner has agreed to a deal to sell the team. Not much for good viewing huh? For JAX QB Blaine Gabbert has only thrown for 1371 yards, and a 48.5% completion rate, and they are last in the NFL in scoring at 12.5/g. Their total yardage per game is 250 while their passing yardage per game is a putrid 131!!

Their defense only allows 293 yds/g, of which 183 is passing which ranks them #4 in the NFL. Jax whole offense is Maurice Jones Drew who has run for 1040 yards, and they have what many feel is the worst collection of receivers in the whole league. SD has Phillip Rivers who at this time in every other season was at the top of the NFL in passing. Well, this season he has thrown for 3211 yards, but has more INT (17) than TD (16), and the Chargers just can't close out the tight games. Meanwhile their defense was scorched by Denver's read option last week to the tune of 208 yards rushing. The keys to the game is that the Chargers must not beat themselves (24 TO's #1 in AFC), and with the depleted OL try to give Rivers a little time. They will run Matthews (717 yds) and Tobert till the Jags stop them. SD is 8-2 in the last two Decembers, while Jacksonville is 3-7. TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL OF 39

BANG THE BOOK

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 39)

Two teams that are just fighting to somewhat get their season back to respectability meet up at Ever Bank Field on Monday Night Football, as the Jacksonville Jaguars try to beat the NFL odds against the San Diego Chargers.

The season isn’t quite over yet for the Chargers, but it sure is getting there. Unlike in years past, the rest of the AFC West isn’t absolutely atrocious, so even winning out won’t guarantee much of anything. That being said, we have a hard time even remotely seeing this team getting the job done, knowing that it has lost six straight games. That being said, only one of those losses in this streak came by more than a touchdown, proof that this team is A) getting unlucky and/or B) playing poorly when it matters most in the fourth quarter (and in some cases, overtime). QB Philip Rivers just has to do a better job taking care of the football. He has 16 TDs against 17 INTs, numbers which just aren’t good enough. If there is a solace in this game though, it is that Rivers has thrown for more yards (3,211) than the Jaguars have of total offense on the season (2,750). The defense has to shore up in this one as well, as there is no excuse to come anywhere near allowing the 25.0 points per game that the team is averaging this season.

It was high time for change in Jacksonville, and my, is there a lot of it this week! Owner Wayne Weaver is in the process of selling the team, and Head Coach Jack Del Rio was dismissed. Del Rio ended his team with the Jags with a losing record, and he just couldn’t make up his mind about a quarterback on a consistent basis for his entire coaching career. It is anyone’s guess whether it will be rookie QB Blaine Gabbert or QB Luke McCown under center on Sunday, but neither one is a good option. Gabbert won two games this year, but he didn’t generate a more than 20 points in a game in his starts. McCown only won one game, the opener against the Tennessee Titans, but after that, he didn’t put up more than 10 points in a game in which he started. This team is only averaging 250.0 yards per game, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew is accounting for nearly half of it. If MJD gets bottled up, there is just no way that this team can move the football. The defense is only allowing 18.2 points per game this year though, which is why this squad has at least kept itself in a number of games this year.

San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Trends: For whatever reason, the Jaguars have a great history in lucky Week 13. They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 years in this week of the year, but they have a poor history on Monday Night Football, going just 3-7 ATS in their last 10. They did win one game in primetime this year though, upsetting the Baltimore Ravens, who might be the best team in the league. The home team has won all four meetings between these two foes both SU and ATS in their team histories. Should the Chargers win this game, they will snap a string of six straight games without a win or a cover.

PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars +3

NHL Predictions

Maple Leafs / Rangers Over 5.5

The Maple Leafs look to bounce back from back-to-back losses against the red hot Boston Bruins, while the Rangers look for their 6th straight win and 8th straight win at home. The Maple Leafs are averaging 3.1 goals per game this season, and 3.80 goals per game over their last 5. Toronto is also giving up a high 3.23 goals against per game. New York is averaging 3 goals per game on the year, and a high 4.20 per game over their last 5. Jonas Gustavsson is back between the pipes tonight and is 8-5 on the season with a 2.97 GAA and .898 SV%. Note that the OVER is 4-1 in the Leafs last 5 games overall, and 13-6 in their last 19 road games. The OVER is also 4-1 in the Leafs last 5 games as an underdog, and 19-7 in their last 26 vs Eastern Conference opponents. The OVER is 4-1 in the Rangers last 5 overall and 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games. The OVER is also 5-0 in these two teams last 5 meetings in New York. These two teams have met once this season in New York, with the game going OVER the total in a Leafs 4-2 win. Take the OVER here at plus money.

Coyotes / Blackhawks Under 5.5

The Coyotes have dropped two straight games, and look to get back on track in Chicago, where they won 4-1 on November 29th. The Blackhawks have won 4 of their last 5 games, with their only loss coming to the Coyotes at home. Phoenix has been struggling scoring with just 1.8 goals per game over their last 5, where they have failed to score a powerplay goal. On the season the Coyotes are averaging just 2.6 goals per game. Nothing is confirmed but we fully expect Mike Smith and Corey Crawford in net tonight. Smith has a low 2.24 GAA and very solid .932 SV% on the year, while Crawford has a 2.91 GAA and .899 SV%. The UNDER is 4-1 in the Coyotes last 5 games, and 6-2 in their last 8 road games. The UNDER is also 6-2-1 in the Coyotes last 9 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 5-2 in these two teams last 7 meetings, and 16-4-1 in their last 21 meetings in Chicago. Phoenix has averaged just 20 shots per game in their two meetings with Chicago this season. Expect this one to fall under the posted total - take the UNDER.

WUNDERDOG

Arkansas State at Austin Peay
Pick: Over 127.5

The Austin Peay Governors have so far taken the donut at 0-9. They have also allowed 80 points or more in five of their nine games played this season. The Red Wolves are just 1-3 on the road where they have really struggled to score. But, they are going to want to try to more up-tempo here given Peay's defensive woes. Arkansas State will score more than usual here. In their last 11 games vs. the Sun Belt Conference Austin Peay has seen the OVER produce a 10-1 mark. Take the OVER in this one.

Matt Fargo

Arkansas State vs. Austin Peay
Play: Austin Peay -3.5

Austin Peay certainly has not gotten off to the start it was looking for as it has started the year 0-9 following a 31-point blowout loss at Memphis this past Saturday. The Governors are not a 0-9 team as they were picked to win the Ohio Valley Conference following another 20-win season last year. This is a very talented team with big returnees from last season but they were hit with a brutal early season schedule as eight of those first nine games were away from home. Now it is up to Austin Peay to try and recover right away following the blowout to the Tigers just two days ago. This is the worst start in program history and with another brutal road game on deck at Tennessee, it is pretty important for the Governors to get that elusive win. They are struggling offensively and defensively but they have really had some bad spots and have seen the wrongs teams at the wrong time. In their only home game, Middle Tennessee shot an unheard of 64.7 percent. Arkansas St. comes in riding a two-game winning streak including a victory at St. Bonaventure last Thursday as 11.5-point underdogs which put the Red Wolves in a great play against situation. They were 0-3 on the road this season heading into that game and that included a combined 81 points scored in their previous two road games at Ohio and Louisville. Defensively they are solid but they are averaging only 55.6 ppg on 40.4 percent shooting on offense which is a break for the Governors. Austin Peay falls into a great situation as well as we play on home teams that are averaging between 63 and 67 ppg going up against teams allowing fewer than 63 ppg after allowing 85 points or more. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last five seasons which puts the Governors in a good contrarian spot. The Governors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record and this is finally the game that they break away with a win.

Dave Price

1 Unit Florida State -17

Following 3 consecutive defeats, the Seminoles will be ready to take their frustrations out on Charleston Southern. FSU is a reliable 49-31 ATS in its last 80 games following 2 or more consecutive losses and a strong 28-14 ATS in its last 42 games after 3 or more consecutive losses. The Seminoles are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. We'll lay the points.