Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Detroit +1½
The Titans are missing a couple key players but they still bring back a lot more experience than a St. John's team that doesn't return a single starter. Playing against any team (ST JOHN'S) that has scored 65 points or less in 3 straight games, provided that team returns one or no starters from last season and is playing in the first 10 games of the season, has produced a 77-44 ATS record since 1997. Also, the Red Storm are just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite. We'll bet Detroit.
Steve Janus
Austin Peay -4
The Governors have got off to a miserable 0-9 start, but are much better than their record indicates. Many came into the year picking the Governers to win the Ohio Valley Conference. Austin Peay has played just one home game the entire season, and that came against a talented Middle Tennessee State team that has started out 8-1. The schedule has been absolutely brutal. They have played Middle Tennessee State twice, California, Oral Roberts, George Washington, Detroit, and Memphis.
At this point the players are sick and tired of losing, and I fully expect them to take out their frustrations on Arkansas State, who is just 3-4 on the year. The Red Wolves come in off back-to-back wins, which has them slightly overvalued in this matchup. While the Governors are going to be extremely motivated to snap their losing streak at home, I find it hard to believe that the Red Wolves will take an 0-9 team seriously. The fact that the oddsmakers have Austin Peay even listed as a favorite should tell you something. A lot of people are going to look at the records of these two teams and instantly take the points. Don't make that mistake!
Arkansas State is just 1-4 on the road this season, which puts even more value on the home team to not only win but cover the spread. Austin Peay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 while the Red Wolves are just 1-4-3 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit DePaul -2½
Motivated by Thursday's 2-point loss to Ole Miss, expect DePaul to bounce back strong tonight.
As a 1.5-point home favorite last season, the Blue Demons crushed Wisconsin-Milwaukee 61-47. DePaul returns all 5 of last year's top scorers and 4 of those will be on the court tonight (Tony Freeland out for season).
Wisconsin-Milwaukee lost its top two scorers from last year's squad and double-digit scorer Ja'Rob McCallum is banged up with a wrist injury. The Panthers are 7-1 but have only played one formidable opponent - Michigan State - and lost by 13 in that game.
The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big East, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less.
The Blue Demons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Horizon League and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. We'll take DePaul.
Jack Jones
St. John's PK
The St. John's Red Storm should be a favorite in this game with Detroit. There's no denying that the Red Storm have taken a step back from last year's team, but this is still a quality bunch that has simply been dealt a brutal schedule in the early going.
St. John's is 4-4 on the season, with their four losses coming against top-ranked Kentucky, Arizona, Texas A&M and Northeastern. After just playing the Wildcats, this team is battle-tested and will be more ready to go Monday as they take on one of the weakest opponents they have faced yet.
Detroit is 3-6 on the season, and this team is getting way too much respect from odds makers tonight. Detroit is 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall, so as you can see, they have been overrated quite a bit here of late. That hasn't changed tonight. Their three wins have come against Lake Erie, Concordia Michigan and Austin Peay.
The Red Storm have a very balanced attack with four players averaging in double-figures. They are Maurice Harkless (14.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG), D'Angelo Harrison (13.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG), Nurideen Lindsey (12.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG) and God's Gift Achiuwa (12.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG). This is a solid young nucleus that will only get stronger as the season progresses.
Detroit is a tired team, playing their second game in three days. The Titans are 10-23 ATS in their last 23 home games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days. St. John's is 20-5 ATS in their last 25 road games after a loss by 15 points or more. The Red Storm are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%). Detroit is 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Bet St. John's Monday.
Doug Upstone
Arkansas State
How bad must Arkansas State be if they are an underdog to a team that is 0-9? That's right, Austin Peay has yet to win a game this season, but is a home favorite against the Red Wolves. We are not buying it this Monday night, since favorites like Austin Peay after six or more consecutive losses, against opponent after two or more straight wins, are 6-25 ATS since 2007.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Elon/ NC Greensboro Under 146: Just once this year did Elon play a game that scored more than tonights total and that was in the opener vs UMass. Elon is not a great shooting team at under 40% and they only score 62.7%, plus they only shoot 32.5% from long range and 65.9% from the line. NC Greensboro has had just two games post more than tonight's total and 1 was vs Tennessee (running team) and the other was vs NC A&T (another uptempo team). Greensboro also has had problems at the offensive end this year as they have scored just 62.6 ppg on just 36.7% shooting overall and 31.3% from beyond the arc, plus they have hit a pitiful 60.7% from the line. They may not find the scoring easy tonight as Elon has limited their opponents to just 61.6 ppg on 35.9% shooting in their last 5 games. Greensboro can't play defense but I don't expect Elon to hit 75+ in this one. This should be a slow tempo game with poor shooting and it should be played in the 60's at best.
3 UNIT PLAY
St John's PK over DETROIT: The Johnnies have not had a great start to their year and that may be attributed to them being the youngest team in CBB. The Johnnies only go 7 deep and that really cost them vs the uptempo of the Cats, but Detroit is not really an uptempto team and that should help the Johnnies stay a bit fresher in the 2nd half. St John's had some problems down low vs Kentucky in their last game by Detroit is not terribly big on the inside and that should help St John's here. Detro0it hasn't gotten off to a great start this year either as they are 3-6 and they are off BB home losses to conference rivals Cleveland State and Youngstown State. Detroit has played good defense at home 65.2 ppg on 42.1% shooting), but they come into this game allowing 74.7 ppg on 45.9% shooting. St Johns had problems vs the Kentucky defense and they have shot 42% in their 4 losses by 50.2% in their 4 wins. Detroit has scored just 61 ppg on 43.1% shooting overall and a mere 18.8% from long range at home this year. The Redmen should be able to get enough offense to outscore them in this one. KEY POWER TRENDS--- St John's is 20-5 ATS in road games off a loss of 15+ points since 1997, while Detroit is 11-32 ATS after a game in which they made 78% FT's or better, since 1997.