Vegas Vic
PACKERS -3 over Ravens
Really like what Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay have done since the bye week, winning five of seven, straight up and against the spread. And if we're talking defense, most people would think Baltimore, but under defensive coordinator Dom Capers, Green Bay has allowed a league-low 281.5 yards per game. Don't forget that Ravens QB Joe Flacco is still fighting a sprained ankle, which is why Baltimore has averaged only 14.5 points the last four games.
Norm Hitzges
Double Play
Green Bay -3 vs Baltimore
Randall the Handle
Ravens @ Packers
Things get a bit easier down the stretch for Ravens after having to endure one of the league’s toughest schedules. A win here would do wonders for any playoff aspirations and with Green Bay being vulnerable to physical teams, the mild upset would not surprise.TAKING: Baltimore +3
SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Baltimore (6-5 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (7-4, 6-4-1 ATS)
The Packers, who are trying to remain in the NFC playoff picture, shoot for their fourth straight victory when they welcome the Ravens to Lambeau Field.
Baltimore remains an AFC wild-card hopeful after beating Pittsburgh last week 20-17, but coming up well short as a nine-point home favorite. The Ravens have alternated wins and losses the last six weeks (3-3 ATS), but they have won two of their last three on the road (SU and ATS). Baltimore is 13th in the NFL on offense, averaging 353.4 yards per contest, and 10th in total defense (308.9 ypg) and sixth against the run (97.6 rushing ypg).
Green Bay ran its winning streak to three in a row (2-0-1 ATS) with its Thanksgiving Day 34-12 victory over the Lions, cashing as an 11-point road favorite. The defense has carried the Packers this season, ranking second in the NFL, allowing 281.5 total ypg, including just 89.1 ypg on the ground. Green Bay also ranks sixth in total offense (382 ypg), and QB Aaron Rodgers (3,136 yards, 22 TDs, 5 INTs) leads the sixth-best passing attack (262.8 ypg).
These teams haven’t squared off since 2005 when Baltimore crushed Green Bay 48-3 as a 3½-point home favorite. The Packers had won and covered the previous two regular-season contests dating back to 1998.
The Ravens are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning record, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 17-8 overall, 10-4 on the road, 7-3 as road ‘dogs, 4-1 in December and 13-6 following a straight-up win. Green Bay is on several ATS slides, including 0-6 in Week 13 games, 1-5-1 after a spread-cover, 2-5-1 as a home chalk and 3-7-2 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
For Baltimore, the “under” has been the play in four of the last five overall, but the “over” is on streaks of 9-4-1 on the road, 8-2 on Monday, 8-2-1 as a ‘dog and 5-2 after a non-cover. The Packers are on a plethora of “over” runs, including 24-11-1 overall, 13-6 at home, 18-7 as a favorite, 12-4 as a home chalk and 22-5 after a spread cover.
Finally, the “over” is 19-9-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to last season (8-5 this year). However, the last four Monday contests have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
San Antonio (9-8, 8-9 ATS) at Utah (11-8, 10-9 ATS)
The Jazz will try to make it three in a row over the Spurs when the two Western Conference squads square off inside EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City.
San Antonio has followed a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) with back-to-back losses, including Saturday’s 106-99 home setback to Denver as a four-point favorite. The Spurs have not fared well on the road this season, going just 1-4 SU and ATS. They are averaging just 90.8 points a game on the highway as opposed to 99.9 overall.
Utah had its four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in Minnesota, losing 108-101 to the Timberwolves as a 7½-point favorite. The Jazz have been dominant at home, winning eight of 11 this season while going 7-4 ATS. Most recently, they’ve won six of their last seven (5-2 ATS) in front of the home fans and average 104.2 points a game and shoot 51 percent from the floor in Salt Lake City.
The Jazz have already defeated San Antonio twice this season, winning 113-99 at home on Nov. 5 as a one-point underdog and then scoring a 90-83 road win on Nov. 19 as a 4½-point ‘dog. The favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings, and Utah has gotten the cash in six of the last eight in Salt Lake City.
The Spurs are on ATS runs of 4-0 on Monday and 6-2 when playing on one day of rest, but they are on pointspread slides of 1-6 on the road, 0-5 against Northwest Division teams and 5-11 against teams with a winning record. The Jazz carry several positive ATS trends, including 4-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 19-7 on Monday, 8-2 after a straight-up loss and 4-1 after getting a day off.
San Antonio has stayed below the posted total in four straight overall, four of five on the road, four of five against the Western Conference and nine of 13 on Monday. Meanwhile, Utah is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 13-6 after a non-cover, four straight against the Western Conference and 5-1 after getting a day off. Also, the “over” has been the play in five of the last six overall in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH
VEGAS EXPERTS
Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder
The oddsmakers can't make the total high enough when these two teams hook it up as the prior two meetings have averaged a combined 248 points. The Thunder is off a 105-87 home loss to Boston Friday night, which puts them in a 13-4 situation, which says to take them Over if they are off a loss by 15 or more points. The Warriors allow over 116 points per game on the road this year. Big night for Kevin Durant.
Play on: Over
Frank Jordan
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Under 43
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Baltimore's and Green Bay's defenses are allowing fewer then 20 points per game and with the weather going to be cold with a high of 20 and snow earlier in the day. Look for the running games to star and deep passes to a minimum. Look for a low scoring affair. Play the Under
BIG AL
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San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Under 192.5
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Surely, one of the surprises of the first 40 days of the NBA season has been the lack of success of the San Antonio Spurs. Gregg Popovich's crew was predicted to be among the NBA's five best clubs, but has fallen way short of that projection. Newcomers Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess have not paid any real dividends (though fellow newcomers Keith Bogans and DeJuan Blair are playing well). The Spurs have dropped their last two games -- both at home -- to Denver and Boston, and have also already lost twice this season to this Utah Jazz club. But even though San Antone is not winning a great many of its games, there are signs of home. One silver lining of late is that the Spurs' defense is starting to get a lot better. After allowing three of their first six foes to shoot 50% (or better), including a 53% effort by these Jazz on November 5, none of the Spurs' opponents have reached the 50% field goal mark over the last 11 games. Not coincidentally, eight of those 11 games have gone 'under' the total, including each of the last four. The Spurs have also gone under the total in 72 of 108 games when playing with revenge from a loss as a home favorite. And San Antonio has gone under in 21 of 28 games off 4+ unders. Look for a low-scoring game at the Delta Center tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Coll Charleston vs. NC Greensboro
Play: Coll Charleston -3.5
COC IS 10-4 in the series and 24-8 vs losing teams. When installed as a road favorite from -3.5 to -6 they are 8-1 straight up and ats. UNC Greensboro has not fared well as a home dog in this range losing 8 of 9 times and failing to cover in 4 of the last 5 in that role. COC is off a nice win vs Davidson ad should get the job done tonight as a small favorite
Johnny Banks
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Portland Trail Blazers vs. New York Knicks
Play Over 203
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Four of Portland's last five games against Atlantic opponents have gone over the total and four of the Knicks last five games as an Underdog have gone over the posted total. The Knicks are averaging 105.8 ppg at home this season while their opponents are averaging 110.3 ppg against them.
SPORTS WAGERS
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GREEN BAY –3½ over Baltimore
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This game will most definitely have an impact on the playoff race, as both teams are in a position to make it and both will decide its on fate based on the last five games. What’s interesting here is that the Pack last played on Thanksgiving Thursday and thus, they’ve had an extra four days off. So, let’s have a look at the teams that played on Thanksgiving Thursday and had the extra time off. In the first Thanksgiving game the Packers went into Detroit. Yesterday, the Lions covered in Cincinnati. The second game featured Oakland playing in Dallas and the Raiders won outright as a 14½-point pooch. Dallas lost in New York but the Giants also played on Thanksgiving, in Denver, so that one is a wash. As for the Broncos, well they torched the Chiefs in what might’ve been the most lopsided game of the day. Thus, all teams that played with the extra rest this late in the year all showed up yesterday with great results. Also consider that the Ravens played last Sunday night in a prime time match-up against its biggest rival, the Steelers, and won in OT. That was a huge and emotional win and that makes this assignment even more difficult. Man for man, these two are pretty damn close but the Packers are at home, they’re much more rested and they’ll feature the best QB on the field here. Oh, by the way, the Ravens once feared defense is no longer feared at all. Play: Green Bay –3½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
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Atlanta –1.05 over TORONTO
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Proving the adage that there's no better deodorant that winning, the Leafs have erased most of the negative feelings of their brutal start over the past few games and seem to have a new energy about them. However, a few wins doesn’t mean the Leafs are devoid of problems and there’s a couple worth pointing out here. First, and this always comes up when discussing the Leafs, there’s the goaltending, where Joey Macdonald, Vesa Toskala or Jonas Gustavsson has not shown any consistency whatsoever. All three can’t be trusted. Secondly, the Leafs home record is the worst in the NHL. Toronto has just two home wins in 13 games. The problem here for the Leafs in relation to the aforementioned is that the Thrashers have been wickedly good on the road with nine wins in 12 games. Furthermore, Atlanta has one of the most potent attacks in the game and those two things combined make this a very challenging assignment for the Maple Leafs. Play: Atlanta –1.05 (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).
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Minnesota +1.25 over PHOENIX
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Two hot teams go at it here. The Wild have reeled off five in a row while the Coyotes have won four straight. The difference is that the Wild are taking back a tag and they’re scoring at an eye-opening rate. In fact, Minnesota has scored five goals in each of the past three games and in four of its past five games. They’ve badly outplayed some decent teams and included in their current run is two straight wins over the then red-hot Predators. They scored five times in both those wins over that stingy defense in Nashville. Bottom line is you just can’t ignore a price on the Wild when you consider what they’ve accomplished recently. They’re definitely feeling it right now. Play: Minnesota +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
JIM FEIST
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS / NEW YORK KNICKS
TAKE: NEW YORK KNICKS
Bad news for the Blazers as they lost 7-foot-1 center Greg Oden for the season after he broke his knee cap in Saturday's win over Houston. The oft-injured big man is being compared to other famous centers who had loads of talent, but just as many injuries. Sam Bowie and Bill Walton come to mind. And, if it wasn't already bad enough, the club was without forward Rudy Fernandez who sat out the game with sciatica pain. Fernandez's status is questionable for this road trip pending a MRI. Toss in injuries before the season to rookies Patty Mills and Jeff Pendergraph and it's been a tough season already for the Blazers. The Knicks have put together a modest two-game winning streak after beating the Nets at home on Sunday, 106-97. The Knicks have beaten some very good teams of late; 114-107 at Atlanta and 126-99 at home over Phoenix in two of their last four games. The injuries will take a toll on this Portland club and I wouldn't be surprised with another New York straight up win over a quality opponent here on Monday. Take the home club plus the points.
Karl Garrett
Baltimore at GREEN BAY -3'
3-1 the last 4 days with my free plays.
For Monday night, I am going with the UNDER between the Ravens and the Packers.
Agreed, Green Bay has been a solid OVER proposition this season, but I cannot overlook the fact the Ravens come into this game having played LOW in 4 of their last 5 games, and while last week's game against Pittsburgh inched OVER the total, there were only 37 points total scored, and that game went to overtime.
With the thermometer now dipping low in Green Bay on these December nights, I can see this game turning into a defensive standoff, as the offenses have a hard time getting into their rhythm.
Finally, after a heavy load of games on Monday night that found the OVER column, we have had 4 straight UNDERS the last 4 weeks.
G-Man going LOW in tonight's battle.
2♦ UNDER
Jeff Benton
San Antonio at UTAH -2
Hope you took advantage of Sunday's easy 6♦ freebie winner with the Redskins plus the points against the Saints. For Monday’s free play, I’ll head to the NBA and take the Jazz as a small home favorite against San Antonio.
The Spurs continue to get way too much respect from the oddsmakers despite the fact they’re just one game over .500 (9-8) after Saturday’s 105-99 home loss to Denver, which was preceded by Thursday’s 90-83 home loss to Boston. Also, San Antonio has played only five road games all year, and it lost four of the five both SU and ATS.
That includes an ugly 113-99 loss in Utah on Nov. 5 – which was followed up two weeks later by a 90-83 home loss to the Jazz. In those two games, San Antonio shot a combined 67-for-156 (43 percent) while allowing Utah to go 80-for-161 (49.7 percent).
While the Spurs have struggled on the road, Utah has been rock-solid in Salt Lake City, going 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS, including an ongoing four-game SU and ATS home winning streak. The Jazz are also an incredible 21-6-1 ATS in their last 26 home games as a favorite of less than five points. Utah has also won and covered six of the last eight home meetings with the Spurs, and the host and the favorite are both 19-7 ATS in the last 26 clashes.
3♦ UTAH
Bobby Maxwell
San Antonio at UTAH -2'
I've gone 21-11 with my last 32 FREE selections and I'm delivering tonight on the NBA hardwood as I play the Jazz at home over the Spurs.
Utah is a tough team to beat in Salt Lake City. The Jazz have won six of seven at home and they will come out tonight and keep it rolling with a 10-point win over the Spurs.
Utah has already beaten San Antonio twice this season, winning 113-99 in Salt Lake on Nov. 5 as a one-point underdog and then the Jazz went to San Antonio on Nov. 19 and scored a 90-83 win as a 4 ½-point underdog. When these two teams get together, the favorite is on a 19-7 ATS run with the Jazz going 6-2 ATS in the last eight in Salt Lake City.
San Antonio has lost two in a row after a five-game winning streak. They lost at home on Saturday to Denver, 106-99 as a four-point favorite. The Spurs haven’t done well on the highway this year, going just 1-4 SU and ATS while putting up just 90.8 points a game on the road as compared to 99.9 overall. A big gap there when the Spurs have to play in the opponent’s house.
The Jazz are on ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 8-2 after a straight-up loss and 4-1 after they get a day off. Utah is getting great production from PG Deron Williams and F Carlos Boozer with the nice surprise being the play of young Wesley Matthews who is knocking down the open shots when those two get double-teamed.
Play Utah in front of the home crowd as the Jazz win this one by double digits.
4♦ UTAH
Tony Weston
Bad call on the Buccaneers yesterday as Tampa Bay can’t do enough to stay close to the Panthers.
I’m not sweating that one at all as I’m delivering a winner tonight as I’m taking Long Beach State on the road at Texas.
Coming into this game Long Beach State is catching about 21 1/2 points, depending on where you’re playing this. But it won’t matter because the 49ers will keep this close enough. Long Beach State comes into this game having covered in 4 of its last 6 games.
This season, the 49ers are 4-3 SU and have been keeping games close enough overall, having been outscored, on average, by about 3 points per game (74.8-71.7). On the road the 49ers are actually just barely outscoring opponents, on average, 70-69.7.
Now they battle a Texas team that’s failed to cover in each of its last 2 games. Consider, too, the Longhorns are just 5-12-1 ATS their last 18 games coming off a SU win.
Long Beach State will keep this one close enough to cash in. Take the 49ers on the road tonight.
3♦ LONG BEACH STATE