Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 10, 2011

Red Dog Sports

Elon at UNC Greensboro
Pick: Elon -3

Elon is 7-8 on the year while UNC-G is 0-14 and being outscored by 84-65. They are 7-20-2 ATS on Mondays while Elon is 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 Monday games. I think Elon wins by 7.

Tom Freese

Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls

Detroit is 12-24 straight up this year. The Pistons are 20-41-1 ATS their last 62 games vs. NBA Central teams. The Piston are 7-18-1 ATS their last 26 meetings with Chicago and they are 0-6-1 ATS their last 7 meetings in Chicago. The Bulls are 24-12 straight up this year 8-3 ATS their last 11 home games and they are 7-3 ATS their last 10 games as home favorites. Chicago is 4-1 ATS when playing with one day of rest. The Bulls are 5-0-1 ATS on Monday and are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games as hom favorites. Chicago is 17-8-1 ATS when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game.

Tony George

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

Like the high scoring Grizzles on the road tonight against hapless Charlotte, where Wallace is still out. Memphis already beat Charlotte 3 weeks ago by 33 points at home and while road games are tougher, that point differential will not be closed by this small of a gap. My power ratings have this at 8 points. Lay the small number with Memphis tonight.

Charlie Scott

Oregon vs. Auburn
Play: Under 73

Big games like tonight's will bring out all the square bettors and their public perceptions. Public perception being that both team's offense's will run up and down the field and the squares will Throw the Over in their parlay. In reality both teams last played DEC 4, giving them a long layoff which could make for a sluggish start on offense,(Nevada on Sunday)and give the defense an edge. A total this high, even with 2 high powered offense's, everything must go right to cash the Over, why not be a contrarion ? I was hoping this total would go up to 75, but it looks like the wiseguys are already starting to play UNDER.

Rob Vinciletti

Notre Dame vs. Marquette
Play: Notre Dame +3

Notre Dame has won 8 of 10 times vs winning teams this year, compared to Marquette which is under .500 vs winning teams. Marquette has lost 4 of this season vs teams who score 77 or more points per game and 1-5 vs teams who allow 64 points per game or less. Notre Dame is 4-0 with 1 or less day of rest and won here last here. Look for a tight game, take the points with Notre Dame.

SPORTS WAGERS

Auburn –1½ over Oregon

We keep hearing that these are the two best teams in the country but we’re not buying into the Oregon argument. Yeah, the Ducks scored 50 a game and destroyed everything in their path but watching the games gives a whole different perspective than seeing the scores. The Ducks played a lot of very average teams this season, seven for sure, while facing three ranked teams. The ranked teams they beat were Stanford, USC and Arizona. Stanford built a 21-3 first quarter lead but a couple of turnovers in the second quarter followed by two scores changed the momentum completely and the Cardinal could not recover. Stanford still racked up 521 yards of offense including 341 through the air. Against the Trojans, Oregon trailed in the third quarter but eventually won the game 53-32 after USC turned it over three times. Finally, against Arizona, a team that lost its final five games of the year, the Ducks trailed 19-14 at the half and allowed the Wildcats 448 yards through the air but rallied again in the second half to win by 19. The Ducks are quick as lightning and their drives usually last about three minutes whether they score or not. Cam Newton should and will rip this Duck defense to shreds. They’ll manufacture methodical drives to wear down this below average defense and keep the explosive Duck offense off the field. Teams playing Oregon let their game plan slip away from them after they found themselves playing catch-up but the same fate does not await the Tigers. Auburn played the toughest teams in the nation and beat them all including Arkansas, LSU, Alabama, South Carolina (twice) and Mississippi St. The Tigers have a well-balanced attack and its defense is a lot better than the Ducks. The Tigers offensive and defensive lines can will their way and overpower the smallish Duck O and D lines. At the end of the day, we don’t trust the Ducks. They really haven’t been tested in a close game yet other than a 15-13 win over California in a game they scored seven points in the second half. A lot is being asked of the Ducks offense here because the Tigers will score often and for the first time this season a response every time is very unlikely. Play: Auburn –1½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

EZWINNERS

Boston Celtics -9.5

The Rockets are in a free fall. Houston has lost six out of their last seven games and they are 0-5-2 against the spread in those games. Boston is still playing without Kevin Garnett who is injured but they had won four straight games before dropping their last game at Chicago. This is a good spot for the Celtics to bounce back as Boston is 15-5 against the spread in their last twenty games following a straight up loss and they are facing a Houston team that is really struggling. Lay the points.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Phoenix Coyotes at St. Louis Blues

It's tempting to lay the price here, particularly considering the home team has won the prior two meetings this season between these teams, but we're not falling for the trap. The Coyotes are 10-5 SU on the road playing with same season revenge while the Blues are 5-14 SU off a loss. Good underdog value here.

Play on: Phoenix

LT Profits

Detroit Pistons +10

The Detroit Pistons may be just 12-24 straight up this season, but they have been underrated by the sportsbooks by going 21-15 against the NBA betting odds including 7-2 ATS in their last nine games, and they now find themselves getting double-digits vs. a Chicago Bulls team that they have played reasonably well in recent meetings.

Even though the Bulls are 8-1-1 against the NBA odds in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, not one of those games had a double-digit point spread like this NBA matchup does. Only once in those 10 meetings did the Bulls win by more than 10 points, meaning that Detroit would be 9-1 vs. tonight’s spread, and that includes two meetings already this season.

Now Detroit is only 3-16 straight up on the road, but they have still managed to go over .500 in NBA betting at 10-9, as they have been playing to inflated spreads like this all year. Furthermore, their two ATS losses during their current 7-2 run were both vs. running teams in the Phoenix Suns and the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Bulls are not that type of team, as they play more of a half-court style and rely on their defense.

The Bulls are a nice 24-12 straight up, but after being great bets on the NBA betting odds early on this season, the sportsbooks have caught up to Chicago lately as the Bulls have slumped to 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. The Bulls may also be in letdown more here after knocking off the Boston Celtics 90-79 here at the United Center on Saturday night.

Look for the Pistons to continue their surprising success against the NBA odds on Monday night.

Bettors World

Oregon

After a few weeks of wall to wall college football Bowl Games, Oregon and Auburn will finally face off for the National Title on Monday night to decide it all. Auburn opened up as a -3 point favorite and the line held steady for several weeks before finally moving off 3 within the last week. There are now a mix of -2's and -2.5's at most sportsbooks.

It's an intriguing game on many levels. The title game can also be a very tricky game to handicap. So much can happen when teams are off for so long between games. Heck, the two week gap in the NFL between the end of the conference title games and the Super Bowl has always had an impact. This layoff is over a month! A layoff that long can have a drastic impact on a teams momentum. In some cases, it's easy to pick which team will be affected more, ie lack of experience in big games, etc. But here, these two are in the same boat.

We treat this game just like any other. For us, it's no different than a regular season game. Which is to say, if we handicap this game and find no perceived edge with our approach, we pass. It just so happens that this game qualified as a play based on our methods, so, we play. But again, it's just another game. We want to stress that point because so many novice bettors feel they have to unload on a game like this, or the Super Bowl, because of the magnitude of the game and the end of the college football season. It's just another play. They'll snap the ball again in 6 months and another season will be underway. Don't keep score based on one season. Blend seasons together and keep score based on many, many seasons.

Ok, enough of the preaching. On to the game. We can't imagine that there are many handicappers out there that when they sat down to make their own line on this game, they made Auburn a 3 point favorite. We use several methods when we handicap a game and all of them had Oregon favored by at least a field goal, in some cases more. So from the day this line was posted, this game jumped out at us as a play. Again, doesn't mean it's a lock, or any better than any of our other bowl selections. It's just a play. Albeit, an obvious one. A no brainer for us.

Of course you need to dig in further than just using your numbers. You have to make sure there are no other factors that may affect the outcome from motivational issues to injuries. We can't find any. If anything, we think the motivational, or psychological edge belongs to Oregon here, and we'll explain why.

The team getting all the attention here is Auburn as a result of Cam Newton winning the Heisman. They are without a doubt, under the spotlight. Sure, both teams are getting media attention like they have never seen before, but it's Auburn up front here. Oregon gets to fly under the radar a bit. That in itself can be huge. College teams, and college kids, generally don't handle intense pressure and national media attention well. In fact there was a system in place for several years to simply play against the Heisman winners team in Bowl games and the system was very profitable. Couldn't tell you what that systems record is lately, but it makes sense. The Heisman winner, after all, is expected to come into this game and play like a super human and often can't live up to those expectations. The Heisman factor and all the attention to Auburn is also one of the major factors in Auburn opening as a 3 point fav. The Heisman makes Auburn a "public" team.

Our numbers aside, this game for us is simply a matter of taking the better team plus the points. Oregon is ahead of Auburn in just about every statistical category, in many cases by a large margin. This is a game between two tremendous offensive teams, one of which also has a defense. That team is Oregon. Oregon is 14th overall in total defense. Not too shabby for a team that makes you think of offense. They are much better against the pass than Auburn, with both teams about even against the run.

Both teams get better defensively as the game goes on and it makes sense. With both offenses so explosive, opposing offenses spend quite a bit of time on the field. By the time the 4th quarter rolls around, they are drained. Oregon does a fantastic job of substituting defensive players. They are comparable to a basketball team with a deep bench. This is evident when you look at points allowed by quarter. 86, 58, 54, 24. They get better in each quarter, and in each quarter, those numbers are better than those of Auburn.

Offensively, they are both very good. Among the top in the nation. However, Oregon is THE top.

Call it lady luck, call it destiny, or call it just catching some good bounces, but Auburn has had it this year. They had 5 games that could have gone either way. They could have just as easily lost those games. Granted, they didn't, and good teams find a way to win. But that is where Oregon is different. Oregon had one close game all year, a 2 point win over Cal. The next closest margin was 11 points. No one else came within 17 points. Oregon didn't just win. They won by large margins. They dominated. Just ask another offensive powerhouse, Stanford, a 52-31 victim.

Yards per point numbers favor Oregon. They are 10.9 on offense and a very good 18 on defense for a total of +7.1. Auburn is an 11.7 on offense and 14.8 on defense, which is mediocre. Their total is +3.1. Yards per point edge to Oregon by 4 points.

Turnover margin: Oregon +12 and Auburn +5.

Our score prediction model has Oregon winning the game by a score of 43-30.

Lastly we think the motivational and psychological edges belong to Oregon. If either team is likely to play with a chip on their shoulder, it's the Ducks. Aside from Auburn getting all the attention because of Newton, Oregon can also consider it a lack of respect being installed an underdog in the game.

We always like to point out that when we make a play, we expect we'll win that play around 56 times out of 100. This play is no different. This play may win or it may lose. But Oregon is the "right" side. It has all the ingredients for a nice play. Everything we look for. Some games, we'll handicap, and we'll be on the fence. This game, was a no brainer. There were no question marks. We played the game at +3 right when the opening line was posted and sent it out to our readers.

Those of you who didn't play it, it's still good at +2 or +2.5. The play isn't based on Oregon hanging within 3 and covering. The play is based on Oregon winning the game straight up.

Good Luck if you play. This concludes another successful college football campaign for the Bettorsworld Key Releases. Make sure you sign up for our newsletter. This way, when next year rolls around, you'll be sure to get every single play!

Larry Ness

Marquette -3

Notre Dame improved to 11-0 at home with a 76-61 victory over St. John's on Saturday and takes an overall 14-2 mark into tonight's game at Marquette. It marks just the team's second true road game this year, the first being an 80-58 loss at still unbeaten Syracuse. The Irish are not deep and one of their three 6-8 starters, Scott (10.1-6.1), will miss tonight's game with a partial tear of his left hamstring. He's the team leader with 25 blocks and is shooting a team-high 50.9 percent from the floor. Fellow 6-8 forwards Abromaitis (11.9-6.4) and Nash (10.1-6.1) should be just fine, as Marquette goes pretty much with a four-guard lineup. Stepping into the graduated Hayward's (18.1-7.5) shoes this year is 6-6 freshman Crowder (12.7-6.6) for Marquette. He's joined by a four-pack of excellent perimeter players in Johnson-Odom (15.9-3.4-2.6), 6-7 swingman Butler (15.1-6.4-2.1), Bucyks (9.9-3.5-4.3) and Blue (9.3-3.6-2.7). Notre Dame's backcourt consists of leading-scorer Hansbrough (16.2-3.7-3.9), freshman Martin (10.-4.7) and Atkins (6.5-3.4 APG), who will likely take Scott's place in the starting lineup with the 6-9 Cooley (4.5-3.5) being the first player off the bench. Marquette is 9-1 at home this year, losing only to Wisconsin and won't forget that Notre Dame won here last year, 63-60 in OT. The 11-5 Golden Eagles are in dire need of a "signature" win, as they fell to 0-4 against top-25 opponents with an 89-81 loss at No. 5 Pittsburgh this past Saturday. I expect they'll get it here, as the Irish have spent very little time this year outside of South Bend.

Teddy Covers

Houston @ Boston
PICK: Boston -8.5

We cashed a ‘free play’ winner with Utah over Houston this past weekend, as the Jazz rallied back from a double digit deficit in the second half to beat the Rockets in overtime. And there’s absolutely no reason to stop fading this slumping team tonight as they step up in class on the road against the Celtics.

Houston has lost five straight and six of their last seven. Their defense has fallen apart without injured centers Yao Ming and Chuck Hayes in the low post; allowing 106 points per game on 47.4 percent shooting in their last five games. That’s an absolute disaster facing the most efficient offensive team in the league – Boston is the only team in the NBA to hit more than half of their shot attempts.

We cashed a ticket betting against the Celtics at Chicago this weekend, about an ugly a game as you’ll ever see from Boston’s offense, as they were held to 79 points in the double digit loss. Boston won by 14 on the road following their last defeat; exactly the type of prideful, veteran squad that we look to support coming off a subpar showing. And the Celtics will surely remember Houston coming to the TD Garden and winning in SU fashion in each of the last two years, giving them one more motivating factor in what should be an easy blowout win! 2* Take Boston.

Hollywood Sports

Notre Dame at Marquette
Prediction: Marquette

Notre Dame (14-2) is playing just their second true road game all season with the first test playing in their opponent's gym resulting in a 70-58 loss in Syracuse. And they will have to play this game without their leading shot-blocker in Carleton Scott who is out the month with a torn left hamstring. Marquette (11-5) returns home after being on the road in Big East play last week. The Golden Panthers defeated Rutgers earlier in the week before falling in Pittsburgh by an 89-81 score. But now Marquette will be back on their home court where they are 9-1 with a +20.4 PPG net winning margin. The Golden Panthers are holding their opponents to just 39.4% shooting on their home court while nailing 51.4% of their own shots and putting up 84.8 PPG. They have covered 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Lay the points with Marquette.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Marquette -3

The Golden Eagles allowed Pitt to shoot 60% from the field Saturday and only lost the game by 8 points for a 4th straight cover. That poor defensive effort should inspire a much stronger one as Marquette looks to pay the Irish back for an overtime loss at home last season. Marquette is 9-1 at home this season, and it will be happy to return to its home floor tonight after back-to-back road games. This contest presents a major challenge for Notre Dame as it is just its 2nd true road game of the season. It lost by 12 at Syracuse in its first. Marquette has been one of the best investments in Big East play of late, going 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 conference clashes. The Irish rely heavily on the 3-point shot, and I believe that will prove to be problematic for them tonight as the Eagles really pick up their defensive intensity. Under coach Williams, Marquette is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots per game on the season after 15+ games. The Golden Eagles are defeating these teams by an average score of 77.3 to 66.3. Lay the points.