DAVE COKIN
ALABAMA VS CLEMSON
PLAY: UNDER 50.5
I can’t make heads or tails out of the side on this game. I think the spread is right on the button. But I have an opinion on how I believe this game will unfold, and can make a case for this being a reasonably low scoring game.
I can see Alabama having some trouble with the Clemson spread. The Tide have lost six games over the last four seasons, and all of those were against teams that utilized the spread. Saban often goes nickel against 11 personnel, and that could create some lanes for Clemson QB Watson and RB Gallman. But the Tigers still have matchup issues, as their OL is their least powerful aspect, and that Alabama defensive front is the best I’ve ever seen in college football. So I can see Clemson getting some yards in this game, but finishing off drives is likely a problem, and that means FG’s instead of TD’s.
There’s no way Jake Coker duplicates last week’s brilliant performance against Michigan State. The Spartans basically went all-in to stop Derrick Henry, and the strategy backfired as Coker tore apart their secondary. Clemson is certain to try and mix things up with varied fronts and zone defense. I definitely see Henry having a significantly better game here than he did a week ago. The Tigers have a really good secondary and as I would be shocked to see Swinney all-out to stop the run, I don’t anticipate Coker throwing nearly as much as he did last week. I also think Saban will be happy to try and turn this into a trench slugfest that features Henry and emphasizes ball control.
Let’s not discount the punters here, either. Clemson has been terrific at limiting substantial returns and the Bama kid is superb at knocking down kicks inside the opponent 20. That means that barring turnovers that make for short fields, this is going to be about long drives and hopefully more threes than sevens.
The best numbers on this total have come and gone. But as I made the number 47, I can still live with playing the game at the current number of 50.5. I rarely go the O/U route, but I will here with a play on the Under.
Strike Point Sports
Alabama (-6.5) over Clemson
This line has gone down since it came out at 7-7.5. Clemson has already surprised a lot of people by beating Oklahoma as the were a 3.5-point dog in that game as well. We loved Clemson in the semi-finals, but not here. Alabama is absolutely rolling at the current time, and they will be just too much for Clemson on both sides of the football. I do not think that the Tide handles Clemson the way they did Michigan State, but they will win this game by double-figures. After last year's poor performance in the semi-finals, Nick Saban won't let his team falter again. Look for Alabama to establish their ground game and to control the clock versus this high-powered Clemson offense. The Tide will want to keep Watson and company off the field as much as they can. Alabama is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus teams with winning records and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 neutral-site games. Lay the points in this one as Alabama makes up for last year with a double-digit win in this years National Championship Game.
Heath Mac
Alabama vs. Clemson
Play: Over 50½
We’re excited about this Championship game between Bama and Clemson. With two super talented squads, it has the makings of a historical game. Both teams played well this season, especially on defense, where Clemson allowed 20.2 ppg (ranked 18th) while Alabama allowed just 14.4 ppg, good enough for 3rd least points allowed per game in the nation. Having said that, both teams have some minor weaknesses in the secondary. Alabama is susceptible to a mobile, efficient, dual threat QB. And guess who has one of those? Clemson. Deshaun Watson is a superstar and should thrive on the big stage. We think he will be able to make some of the crucial 3rd and long plays that Connor Cook and the Spartans couldn’t manage last week.
Clemson’s defensive numbers look solid this season and although we don’t want to harp on it, again we’re taking them with a pinch of salt due to some of the opposition they have faced. There is no doubt they were impressive last week against the Sooners, in what was their most impressive game this season. However in their last 5 games, the Tigers have allowed Syracuse to put up 27 points, South Carolina to put up 32 points and North Carolina to put up 37 points. That’s not a slight on this secondary, but it does show that Clemson can give up points against solid offenses. Alabama has a solid offense. Led by Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry and QB Jake Coker, who will be full of confidence coming off his best career game to date, Bama can hurt you on the ground and now also in the air. As good as their secondary has been, Clemson’s run defense is solid, but not elite, allowing 129.2 ypg (compared to Alabama’s 74.0 ypg) and you would have to think Henry is in for a big game.
On offense, both teams can put up points. Clemson are the more balanced of these two teams on offense, with dual threat QB Watson leading the way. While we are a bit wary of Clemson’s numbers against weaker (than the SEC) ACC opponents, they have the offense to put up some points in this game, even against one of the better secondaries in the nation. They averaged 38.5 ppg (ranked 15th) and although they probably wont get their average in this game, they have some points in them.
This total has been smashed down from opening odds and now sits at around 50.5 points. It’s clear that the public is all over the UNDER here, based on these two teams both having outstanding defenses. However, the total is now low enough that we think there is some value in going against the public and backing the OVER. Both teams will get their points. Clemson have shown they have a great offense lead by an outstanding dual threat QB while the Crimson Tide have several weapons and put up 38 points last week against a pretty good Spartan’s secondary. The last factor that may assist us is that although Alabama are used to the big stage and seem to play off for the big prizes every second year, Clemson aren’t anywhere near as experienced on the big stage. This could lead to some early nerves and possible turnovers, which could translate to scoring opportunities.
Sleepyj
Miami +12
I'll grab the +12 here with the Heat...These West coast trips for teams seem to be the same sometimes...Go out west and lose the game before GS...Well we have that situation here again..Heat have a daunting road run ahead of them for the next few weeks...We had Miami to open up this road trip a few days ago in a win over Phoenix..Then the Heat fall flat in the next game Vs. Utah...Now they travel to Golden State to see the champs tonight...For every team who is a legit contender this GS road game is always circled..I see no reason this one isn't for the Heat..The teams who found themselves sitting at home watching finals always step up to see just how good they are versus this team..I expect the Heat to be ready for this one tonight...Miami plays tough defense and that's just one thing you need to slow down this Warriors attack...Weakness for the Warriors is the defense..So if the Heat have a good night shooting and a strong defensive effort, i think they can hang within the number...Last year the Heat failed to cover this number..They got beat by GS in GS by 15 and at home by 17....So improvement is needed in order for the Heat to actually beat these guys...I feel the Heat are a better team this year all around....5th seeded team right now in the east and last year at this time the Heat had a record of 16-21...This year the Heat are 22-15...That's a big swing IMO..Not to mention in those games last year the overall team make-up was much different...Chalmers, Cole and a few others are off this team..So Miami has made strides this year to improve..I think they bring the best game they can in this one..I think they come up short, but stay within the number..i can only see Miami improving on past results with this current roster and how they have played so far this year...Grab the points with the Heat tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Chattanooga vs. Wofford
Play: Chattanooga -2½
UT-Chattanooga is the better team and is 31-13 vs winning teams, including 5-1 this season. They are 7-2 after scoring 60 or less and come in off a loss that snapped their win streak. They have won 6 of 8 after a conference loss and have played a tougher schedule than Wofford who is 2-8 vs winning teams, 1-3 in the series and 0-7 as a dog with just 1 spread win. Lay the few points here.
Mike Lundin
Wizards vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls -7½
This looks like a good spot to back the Chicago Bulls to bounce back from a 120-105 loss to the Hawks Saturday. The Bulls had won six straight prior to that setback and they're 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The Wizards meanwhile ended a three-game skid with a 105-99 win at Orlando, but they're 1-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season and still struggling with injuries. I think we can expect the Bulls D to be back at its very best tonight and it's also worth noting that Joakim Noah may return from a nine-game absence. The Wizards are allowing way too many points to be able to run with the Bulls and this should be a BLOWOUT WIN for Chicago.
Jim Feist
Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls
Pick: Chicago Bulls
A lot was expected out of the Wizards this year, considering they have the fine backcourt duo of Bradley Beal (19.8 ppg) and John Wall (19.7 ppg). In fact, the Wizards have five players averaging in double figures. Even with this talent, they are still just 16-19 S/U on the season. The Wizards are coming off a win at Orlando, 105-99. However, that was just the club's second win in the last seven games. The Bulls are 22-13 S/U on the season and coming off a loss at Atlanta, 120-105. Still, the Bulls have been playing very well, going 7-1 S/U their last eight and 4-1 ATS their last five. The Bulls are also expecting to have their big man back, as Joakim Noah is set to return Monday after recovering from a shoulder injury on Dec 21. The Bulls recent winning streak has been without Noah in the lineup. Bulls playing very well right now and with Noah back in the fold, I expect them to be even better.
Ben Burns
Wizards vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls -7½
I think the Bulls catch the Wizards in a great betting spot here on on Monday and I think oddsmakers have made a mistake in not making the Bulls lay more points.
The Bulls are simply one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now with seven wins in their last nine games and they covered the spread in six of those contests. They rode a six-game winning streak into Atlanta last game when the Hawks took them down 120-105 but that was due in large part to a sluggish start to the game, which was likely the toll of the winning stretch.
I think we'll see a revitalized Chicago team on Monday back at home, especially with the expected return of forward Joakim Noah, who has been out with a shoulder injury. I think Noah will help the Bulls continue on their scoring surge, which has been the biggest reason for their recent hot play. chicago is averaging 109.2 points over its past five games - an increase of seven points per game compared to their season average.
I won't be surprised to see a letdown from the Wizards here Monday, who earned their first win in four games on Saturday at Orlando. It was just the second win in seven games for the Wizards and I don't feel they have the horsepower to keep up with a hot Chicago squad.
Ari Atari
Panthers vs. Canucks
Play: Panthers -109
Team Cat baby! The Panthers head to Vancouver looking to extend their winning streak to thirteen games. Vancouver is a team plagued with mediocrity and inconsistency. They've relied heavily on their younger players who have looked great at times, and at other times are challenged to play an NHL game every shift. The defense corp is sub par and while Markstrom has been solid in the cage the back end still gives up too many quality opportunities. While some of the Panthers underlying numbers are worrying, they're finding ways to get it done. The top line of Huberdeau, Barkov, and Jagr have been scorching hot, and the chemistry between the young guns is pretty great to watch. The return of center Nick Bjugstad bolsters their scoring depth while their defensemen have been excellent. Roberto Luongo is quietly turning in a Vezina season despite his age. Panthers make it lucky thirteen on the road.
Brandon Lee
Heat/Warriors Under 206
UNDER is 11-3 in Miami's 14 road games this season and 8-0 over the last 2 years when playing on the road with a total of 200 or more points. On top of that the UNDER is 11-2 in the Heat's last 13 against the Western Conference and 11-1 in the Warriors last 12 home games after playing their last 2 games as a road favorite. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency. Miami only gives up 93.4 ppg on the road and Golden State allows just 96.9 ppg at home.
Andre Ramirez
NC-Greensboro vs. Western Carolina
Play: Western Carolina -5
Western Carolina is averaging 84 points at home, and only allow 66 points. NC Greensboro surrender 79 points on the road, and only average just 67 points. NC Greensboro has been terrible on the road this year going 0-9. Lay the money on Western Carolina as they win by 13 points.
Sam Martin
Alabama vs. Clemson
Play: Alabama -7
While we do believe Alabama will be able to pull away late in this game to secure the win and ATS cover, we don't rate this play high enough to release as a premium selection. But there is still value in backing the Crimson Tide, who erased all doubts about potential weaknesses with a shutout win against a good Michigan State team in the CFP Semifinals.
Alabama's rush defense completely shut down MSU's running game - something Oklahoma was unable to do when Clemson beat them. Without a working rushing game, we're not convinced Clemson will be able to succeed offensively, and while we still have concerns about Alabama's passing attack (still not sure why MSU couldn't defend the deep ball), the Crimson Tide will be able to control field position and TOP with their running game. Clemson cruised through a very weak ACC schedule and came up big last week, but we still aren't ready to believe they are truly the best team in the country. Tide's defense and running game is a big edge that Clemson can't overcome!
Jimmy Boyd
Wizards vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls -8
Chicago comes into this game off an ugly 15-point loss at Atlanta as a mere 2.5-point underdog, while the Wizards just won 105-99 on the road as a 3.5-point underdog. Add in the fact that Washington is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and most are going to want to jump on the Wizards as a 8-point dog. My money is on the Bulls in what I feel like is a big bounce back spot for Chicago at home.
The Bulls are 16-5 at home and had won 6-straight prior to the loss the Hawks, which included 3 straight home blowout wins over the Knicks (108-81), Bucks (117-106) and Celtics (101-92). Washington might not be all that interested in this one, as this is their second straight on the road and 3rd in 4 nights. We also see that while probable, both John Wall and Martin Gortat are both on the injury report, as is Nene (questionable), Humphries (questionable), Anderson (Out) and Beal (Out). I get the feeling oddsmakers aren't expecting the Wizards to show up tonight and that's how I see this one playing out as well.
Washington is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win, 1-6 ATS off a road win and 1-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss by more than 10 points, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home and 5-0 ATS after allowing 100+ points in their previous game.
Bill Biles
Nets/Spurs Under 193
The Nets will struggle to score points against the Spurs. The Spurs also dont light up the scoreboard so this will be a low scoring game. Both teams will struggle to get into the 90's in this one.
Brandon Shively
East Tennessee St-10½
This East Tennessee State is one of the Top 3 teams in the Southern Conference in my opinion. VMI is neck and neck with Citadel with being the worst in the conference. ETSU has the best coach in the conference in my opinion. Steve Forbes worked under Bruce Pearl at Tennessee, Gillespie at Texas AM, and then worked under Marshall at Wichita State. VMI's coach came from Penn State and Navy; two schools that don't have much basketball background. He has tried to make VMI a defensive oriented team, but the problem is they don't have a deep roster and only two decent shooters and are without any scorers down low.
The result for VMI this season is a team shooting only 37.9% from the floor and only 61.7 ppg. They are only averaging 60 ppg on the road, shooting 36.3%. VMI is ranked 300th or worse in the nation in most offensive categories. Not only can they not shoot the ball, they can't get to the foul line as they are only shooting 14 free throws a game, which is ranked 347th in that nation.
Head Coach Forbes brought three Division 1 transfers with him to ETSU. Ge'Lawn Guyn is a Cincinnati transfer that is leading the team with 17.9 ppg and showing his senior leadership. Guyn started all 34 games for Cincinnati two years ago. Deuce Bello is the most athletic kid on the team. Bello was at Baylor and Missouri but couldn't get his grades up so he landed here. Peter Jurkin is a seven foot transfer from Indiana that gives them size in the paint. The rest of the team is made of juniors and seniors.
When laying points like this, I like to have an experienced team like ETSU. It also helps they play good on their homecourt as they are 6-1 SU on the season. ETSU is on a four game winning streak and are looking to take control of the conference. They are shooting 50% from the floor at home this season, including 46% from the three point line. VMI has been getting outscored by an average of 17 points a game on the road. ETSU plays pressure man to man defense and pushes the pace. VMI can't keep up in this one.
VMI has lost by 21 and 28 in their two road games in conference play. They are 0-5 ATS in their last five lined game. They have seven road losses on the season. Six of those seven have come by 12 or more points.
East Tennessee State's last two home wins have come by only three and four points. That was against Morehead and NC-Greensboro who are clearly better teams than VMI. Look for them to roll to a easy double digit win tonight.