SPORTS WAGERS
Clemson +6½ over Alabama
Alabama was a 10-point choice over Michigan State in the College Football Playoff semi-final and all they did was slaughter the Spartans, 38-0. There were a ton of people that ripped their ticket that day, as Sparty took most of the money and those folks that backed the dog learned not to fade Alabama. The market is more starry-eyed about the Tide's 38-0 dismantling of Michigan State than they are about Clemson’s impressive 37-17 rout of Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.
The Tide are known as the premiere organization in the NCAA in the department of football. The mere presence of Alabama in a National Championship Game means you will pay a premium to back them, as was the case last year when Alabama was a -7½-point choice over Ohio State in the College semi-finals and lost outright. Alabama was the top-ranked team in the bracket and almost all had written off the Buckeyes way before the game was even close to kick-off. The Buckeyes would overcome a two-possession deficit and uproot the Tide in route to a National Championship, stunning spectators, analysts and backers alike with a historic rally in the second half.
Clemson is not a buffer for the Tide to polish up in their quest for their prodigious fourth National Championship in the last six years. The Tigers are the sole team in America that has yet to lose a game. We already covered Clemson’s score line against North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game. Clemson controlled the affair, regardless of UNC bringing the difference to eight points. Outside of a hard fought rivalry game win against South Carolina, the Tigers legitimized why they achieved favorable rankings in early college football playoff rankings, as they outright dominated the ACC and out-of-conference foes all-season long. Now we have a discernible notation to bolster Clemson’s resume once again with a dominating performance against Oklahoma. We called for Oklahoma’s head in the College Football Playoff Semifinal, stating that the Sooners were a false favorite with a storied track record of letdowns and overblown hype. We can potentially see a similar scenario taking place in light of Alabama’s recent achievement and their overall reputation.
It is rare to see a team like Clemson with their credentials to be slighted and overlooked in such a manner but we will not follow suit and make that mistake. We are not going to say Clemson is the better team but we are in a better situation in that we're taking inflated points with a proven undefeated. Inasmuch as we're not going to declare the Tigers the better team, we're absolutely not conceding that Alabama is the superior team either. This is one game in which anything can happen but this truly is a fair fight in which we get a great advantage by being offered points. The point-spread is supposed to be the “great equalizer” that makes every game a 50/50 proposition. We don't see this game that way at all. In this case, the oddsmakers had to put up an inflated number not to make it a 50/50 proposition but to create equal action on both sides. Give Clemson at least a 50% chance of winning outright and give us a big edge with these generous points. Enjoy.
Scott Spreitzer
Alabama vs. Clemson
Play: Clemson
This contest tells us all we need to know about public perception. According to Matt Holt, VP of Business Development at CGT in Las Vegas, before the New Year's Eve playoff games, CGT set a hypothetical line of Alabama -4 over Clemson. They had no "buyers." No one jumped in with their money. Then, while Alabama was leading Michigan State, 31-0 in the second half of their semifinal game, CGT made Alabama a 4.5-point favorite. Let the betting begin. The public came in on Alabama and the number has reached as high as 7. This doesn't mean Alabama can't win by a spread-covering margin, but it certainly tells us where the value lies. We also know that Nick Saban-coached defenses have struggled against dual-threat QBs. Alabama played two notable mobile QBs in the SEC this season and they failed to cover either game, including a SU win, non-cover against Joshua Dobbs and Tennessee and an outright loss to Chad Kelly and Ole Miss. While both of those signal callers are mobile and tough to sack, neither is in the class of Clemson's Deshaun Watson. We also know that neither one of those teams is in the same class as the Clemson Tigers. But there is more to Watson than being a runner. The Clemson QB not only ran for more than a thousand yards on 5.5 yards per carry, but he also completed 68% of his passes, throwing for more than 3,700 yards with 31 TD passes and 12 INTs. In fact, Watson accounted for 43 TDs with his legs and arm, combined. RB Wayne Gallman ran for nearly 1,500 yards this season. And while Deon Cain has been suspended, the Tigers have six other players with more than 20 receptions on the season, led by Artavis Scott's 89 grabs for 868 yards. Three available receivers have caught at least five TD passes on the season. Defensively, Clemson ranks 6th in total yards allowed (302 per game), including 9th against the pass and 18th against the run. Michigan State decided not to let Alabama RB Derrick Henry beat them on the ground. Instead, Jake Coker had the game of his life, connecting on 25 of 30 passes. But I'll mention right now that before the playoff tilts on New Year's Eve, I had Clemson power rated 7.5 points better than Michigan State on a neutral field. I do believe Dabo Swiney will have his troops ready and I believe this one will be close until the final gun.
Antony Dinero
Clemson vs. Alabama
Play: Under
Look for this national title game to expose Deshaun Watson inability to accurately pass the ball when kept in the pocket, which means the Crimson Tide has the ability to take over defensively. Look for Derrick Henry's ability to move the chains on the ground to make things easier on Jake Coker, who similarly helped beat Michigan State soundly in the national semifinal due to clear opportunities created by the attention the run game commanded.
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Monmouth Hawks tonight, laying the road chalk at Fairfield play. The Hawks reopened MAAC play with a pair of wins over Canisius and Quinnipiac at home to move to 3-1 in the league.
Now the momentum carries over, as the Hawks will have no problem against Fairfield, as they'll ride the offensive touch of Justin Robinson, who is averaging more than 20 points per game.
I know Fairfield is 5-1 at home this year and has won four of six games, but Monmouth is 3-1 in conference games versus Fairfield.
Monmouth will take on Iona on the road on Friday night in game that will be tougher than this, making this one imperative.
5* MONMOUTH
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Brooklyn Nets plus the points at home over the San Antonio Spurs. At the time of this writing, the Nets are catching around 14 points in Vegas and offshore.
It's a light card other than the big game tonight, and this is really the only game that stood out to me even remotely.
And to be honest, it's more of a selection against the Spurs caring than it is anything else. Clearly San Antonio is better than Brooklyn. Clearly if this game was being played in the Alamo the Spurs would be favored by a ton and it might actually be worth betting them.
But how can you expect the Spurs to get excited about a game like this when there's been so much made about their home success this year?
Let's also remember they're a pedestrian 10-6 on the road this year and it's not like they've been playing a ton of great teams either.
Call it a hunch, but I think the Nets give San Antonio everything they want tonight before finally settling for a loss.
Take Brooklyn plus the points as your free play of the day.
1* BROOKLYN
Gabriel DuPont
Tonight's free play: Washington at CHICAGO (-8)
The STORYLINE in this game today - After knocking off the Orlando Magic on Saturday, the Washington Wizards are on the road now, and looking to build momentum heading into a match-up with the Chicago Bulls at the United Center. I don't think the Wizards will be in this game by mid-third quarter, quite frankly.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this one is Chicago's rookie power forward Bobby Portis. He has been on fire lately. His stellar play has led media members to wonder if the Bulls might trade a big man or two at the deadline. Though he fell flat in his last game, he averaged 10 points and eight rebounds per contest in the six games before that - all wins for the Bulls.
BOTTOM LINE is - Sorry Wizards fans, but the Bulls will be too much to compete with in this one. Chicago struggles in the first quarter, pulls ahead in the second and puts it away in the third. Win and cover for the Bulls.
1* CHICAGO
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Golden State Warriors over the Miami Heat.
The Warriors stand at 35-2 straight up on the year, as they remain in pursuit of the record for best regular season record in NBA history.
Look for them to notch another win, and in the process nab the cover against a Miami team they handled by double-digits in BOTH meetings last year, going 1-0-1 against the spread.
The Warriors have covered in each of the last 3 wins - all away from home - and are 2-0-2 against the spread the last 4 series meetings against the Heat.
Miami comes in with losses in 2 of their last 3 both straight up and against the spread.
In reality, you really can't go wrong backing the Warriors this season, so let's back them again tonight, and grab the cash!
3* GOLDEN STATE
Chris Jordan
I'm playing the NBA tonight, with my free winner, as I like the number I see with the defending champion Golden State Warriors against the Miami Heat.
The number may seem big, but I don't see it tha way with a team that just won by an average of 17.6 in three straight road games.
And since suffering its second loss of the season on Dec. 30 - without Steph Curry in the lineup - the Warriors have won six straight. This is a sandwich home game before playing in Denver on Wednesday, then back home on Thursday against the L.A. Lakers. After that it's three more on the highway, in Detroit, Cleveland and Chicago.
The momentum continues in this game tonight, as the Warriors will steamroll the Heat.
1* GOLDEN STATE
Brad Wilton
I like this game tonight indoors in Glendale to go Over the total.
First of all, weather not an issue on this "fast track", and second and most importantly with all of the clock stoppages in college football, there will be PLENTY OF TIME for both teams to put points on the scoreboard, and it is not like we need a whole slew of points to take this one Over.
The defense of Alabama is definitely the calling card in this game, but Clemson has not been stopped yet this season, with 9 of their last 10 games seeing them notch 30 points or more. On the other side, Alabama did score 38 in their semifinal game against a pretty staunch Michigan State stop unit.
Clemson is on a 7-3 Over run heading into this Monday night battle, while Alabama has split their last 4 against the spread in the Over/Under department.
Prefer the Over in the college ranks most of the time, and tonight is one of those times.
Tide-Tigers to go Over.
2* ALABAMA-CLEMSON OVER
Dave Price
Brooklyn Nets +15
You won't find many home underdogs bigger than what the Brooklyn Nets are tonight against the San Antonio Spurs. They are catching a whopping 15 points at home here tonight. Just out of principle, they are worth a look as today's free pick simply because this is so many points. I also like the fact that the Nets fired their head coach, and that first game with a new head coach always seems to bring out the best in a team. Change is good when you're 10-27 on the season, and I think assistant Tony Brown will get the most out of his players for this game. It's time to fade the Spurs after they've gone 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall. They only won 100-99 at home as 15-point favorites over the Knicks last time out. The Nets are only getting outscored by 5.8 points per game at home this year. They have actually won each of their last two home meetings with the Spurs outright. The Nets are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference teams.
Jack Jones
Monmouth -5.5
The Monmouth Hawks have been one of the most exciting teams in college basketball this season, and not just because of their crazy bench celebrations. They are actually playing some really good basketball on the court, and they've beaten some very good teams this year.
Indeed, the Hawks are 11-4 on the season. They have beaten UCLA, Georgetown and Rutgers on the road, as well as Notre Dame and USC on a neutral court. They only lost to Dayton by 3 on a neutral court as well. They have a better résumé than just about anyone in the country right now.
The Fairfield Stags are a quality team this season at 8-7, but they are going to be no match for this Monmouth outfit tonight. Fairfield has a 24-point loss to Iona and a 15-point loss to Siena this season, as well as a 12-point home loss to Wagner. It's clear by those results that the Stags are a couple of notches down from the Hawks.
Fairfield is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less. Monmouth is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who make 45% or more of their shots over the last two seasons. The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Stags are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Scott Rickenbach
Heat vs. Warriors
Play: Heat +13½
This will be the 3rd game in 4 nights (that is not a back to back situation) for the Warriors. This is not something that Golden State has had to deal with a lot of recently. The last time that the Warriors played a 3rd game in 4 nights (where there was one lone off day after a back to back spot) they defeated Indiana by a margin of only eight points in early December. I look for another tight game here and see good value with the big points being offered in this game. The Heat come into this game off of a road loss at Utah but Miami had previously covered 5 of their 6 prior road games. Also, prior to that defeat, the Heat had been 8-4 ATS this season in non-conference games. The Warriors, as strong as they have been, have only covered 5 of 13 games in non-conference action. With a road trip to a Western Conference opponent (Denver) on deck, Golden State isn't necessarily fully focused on a blowout win here and with Wade and Whiteside both now listed as probable for the Heat tonight, it's 'go time' with this one!
AC Dinero
Alabama vs. Clemson
Play: Alabama -6.5
Here we have an interesting matchup of styles: Clemson with its spread/tempo offense run by dual threat QB DeSaun Watson and Alabama with its physical "punch you in the mouth" brand of football. Celmson has great numbers, buts it largely against subpar opponents. Alabama is superb on defense and solid, if not spectacular on offense. Unlike Clemson, every opponent they plays as solid or better in the SEC. Bama has had trouble converting on 3rd down. If Clemson is to pull the upset, they need to win that down. Alabama is by far the more tested team, basically playing a playoff game since its September loss to Ole Miss. One under the radar advantage for teh Tide is special teams. Alabama has played a couple of offenses that resemble Clemson in Ole Miss and Miss St. You can throw in Texas AM though they didn't have the dual threat QB. They handled Dak Prescott fine and even though Ole Miss scored 43 points, they came off turnovers, and broken plays. The closest team that resembles the Tide for Clemson was Florida St. That game was close with a late Clemson TD putting it away. FSU is a middleweight (this year) compared to the super heavyweight Crimson Tide. IT will come down to whether Cemson can take the punches for 4 quarters. Teams have hung araound with the Tide for two, but those last two can wear you down in a hurry, which is what I think will happen. SeSaun Watson has to be perfect. He won't be. He'll play well, but not well enough as Bama pulls away late and gets the cover
SPORTS WAGERS
VANCOUVER +100 over Florida
OT included. As much as we don't like to fade a team as hot as the Panthers are right now, one cannot rely on the Panthers extreme “puck luck” much longer. We're not suggesting that the Panthers are a fluke but we are strongly suggesting that they can't keep winning games in the same fashion that they are doing so right now. Last night in Edmonton, Florida managed a mere 14 shots on net and won 2-1. Thursday in Ottawa, the Panthers had a mere 16 shots on net and won 2-1 again. They also had 20 shots on net against the Rangers and 18 against Carolina during their winning streak and naturally won both those games as well. When we look at the Corsi numbers in Florida's last two games against Edmonton and Ottawa (two teams with some ugly Corsi against numbers), we see the Panthers losing the Corsi for battle by a miraculous count of 106 to 64. Florida has been outshot and out-chanced in five straight games and most of those were by a wide margin. Florida will now play its fourth straight on the road. They have yet to lose this season in the tail end of back-to-back games, which is another anomaly that cannot last.
The Panthers are very simply not strong enough to keep running over teams but they have been doing so because they have posted a remarkable shooting percentage over their 12-game winning steak while Roberto Luongo has posted an off-the-charts save percentage.
Florida's luck will inevitably run out and it'll run out sooner rather than later because the numbers say so. This is not a one-time bet. Florida will play in Calgary and Tampa Bay after this one and we'll be fading them all three games beginning with this one with an expectation of profit.
Harry Bondi
Clemson / Alabama Under 50.5
The Crimson Tide has all the attributes of a team that will play to a low-scoring game tonight. On offense, they lean on a strong running game with Heisman winner Derrick Henry leading the way and game-manager QB in Jake Coker. Defensively, they are as good as any team in the country allowing just 13.4 points per game after holding Michigan State scoreless for the first time in 196 games. Clemson has also trended to low-scoring affairs in this situation, going 39-70 to the under the last 10 years when facing a team with a winning record and 1-8 to the under when listed as an underdog on a neutral field.