Bruce Marshall
Wizards / Bulls Over 207
Teams split their four meetings last season after Washington dumped Chicago out of the 2014 playoffs. Chicago continues to stay near the top of the East thanks to a recent surge that saw it welcome back Derrick Rose and win five straight thru Jan. 6, while the pace of its games accelerated, perhaps due to increasing minutes from Arkansas rookie Bobby Portis, resulting in a recent spate of "overs" (9-2 last 11 thru Jan. 6). Meanwhile, John Wall is admirably handling the extra Washington burdens placed upon him with Bradley Beal (leg) still sidelined for a couple of more weeks, and Marcin Gortat recently won Eastern Conference Player of Week honors. Chicago's recent "over" pattern might be the best call.
Rob Veno
Bucknell vs. Lehigh
Play: Bucknell -1.5
Patriot League play has a ray of sunshine for Bucknell which has steamrolled their first four opponents by nearly 21 points per game. The Bison played admirably against the better non-conference teams they faced as well so perhaps it’s no surprise that the step down in class to league play has seen them flourish thus far. At North Carolina State, Bucknell shot 51.6% and lost just 99-86 and they also hung within eight of ACC member Wake Forest (lost 90-82) and lost by just four to Penn State 62-58. The high octane, 94-foot style of Bucknell has seen them become vulnerable on the defensive end allowing 1.03 points per possession. However, with four of the top six in their rotation shooting between 44-52.5% from the field, they’ve been able to easily outscore league opposition. Lehigh does not subscribe to the up-tempo philosophy but they’ve been dragged into it multiple times this season by teams who prefer running. The situation here of a home, conference game for Lehigh does suggest that they should somewhat be able to control the pace but not sure they can prevent Bucknell from getting this game revved up for periods of time. Lehigh has shown a solid home/road split so far as their home games average 148.0 total points while the road tilts average only 138.3. The numbers suggest that the Mountain Hawks will play whatever speed the other side dictates and that favors Bucknell. Lehigh’s best offensive asset is the 3-pointer but Bucknell happens to be the best in the Patriot shooting 3’s at a 39.1% clip. Have to believe the sharp shooting and fast pace Bison will be able to find plenty of ways to continually score points against the Lehigh defense which ranks 307th in the nation. Payback could also be a motivating factor for the visitors tonight as they were drilled 84-65 on this court the last time these teams met. That 19 point loss was the the most lopsided one in the last 11 contests in this series. Line indicates a hotly contested game here tonight but figure the solid shooting of Bucknell in all aspects will be a large enough advantage to get the cover.
Hollywood Sports
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
Pick: Miami Heat
Miami (22-15) looks to rebound from a 98-83 loss at Utah on Saturday. The Heat are then 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. Miami stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. The Heat are also 6-2-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to the Oracle Center. Golden State (35-2) is becoming a team we want to fade with their public support raising their betting lines too high. The Warriors are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Golden State is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
OC Dooley
Bucknell / Lehigh Over 154
For those who have followed Bucknell the offense has been sensational in winning each of their initial 4 games against Patriot League competition and back on Saturday (98 points scored) they nearly reached the century mark. Bucknell has hit at least 40% of their long range attempts from downtown SEVEN times in the most recent 8 outings led by senior Chris Hass who has reached the 1,000 point career scoring plateau. I am aware that host Lehigh is an offense by committee so to speak but in front of their HOME fans they are a full 8 points ABOVE their season average. The last time these pair of rivals met there were 149 “combined points scored which was a complete reversal of the combined point counts (130, 126 and 129) of the prior three meetings. Arguably the oddsmakers have helped dictate this wager with a posted spot that opened at many offshore locations as high as 155-and-a-half which is a figure these pair of sides have not reached in years
Tony Finn
Alabama -6.5
In the second stage of the new College Football National Title format, a four team playoff scheme, the two top rated CFP teams square off tonight in Glendale, Arizona when No. 2 Alabama meets No. 1 Clemson. While the Last year, the championship tilt featured No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 4 Ohio State, that matchup would have pitted the Alabama Crimson Tide against the Florida State Seminoles in the national title contest, if the college bowl picture lived in the BCS era. It is somewhat premature in the new College Football Playoff format to use the old adage“ practice makes perfect” but the phrase fits tonight’s situation in the second CFP try with the matchup that needed to transpire: Alabama vs. Clemson.
The NCAA College Football Playoff rankings pushed the envelope setting up similar styles of play in the two New Year’s Even semi-final contests. The game of spread offenses and gambling defenses were front and center in the first semi-final College Football Playoff contest when the fourth seeded Oklahoma Sooners squared off against the top seed Clemson Tigers. And in the second New Year’s Eve tilt we witnessed a battle of old-school mentality when the third seed Michigan State Spartans and No. 2 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide placed their two rosters and coaching staffs on the Texas gridiron for a matchup between two strong defenses and offenses that thrive with a power running scheme.
In the first of the two January 31ST semi events, two teams that lived and died with big numbers on the scoreboard, took the Orange Bowl field. Entering the semi-final stage the Sooners had lost just one regular season game, but with that success came the statistical fact that their opponents had scored 20-plus points in eight of the school’s 12 games this season. Those 20-plus points allowed included each of the team’s final three regular-season foes. The Tigers defense, as well, had allowed their opponents to put up large numbers during the regular season schedule, albeit, in an ACC conference that is not as offensively prolific as that of the Big 12. Clemson had not only allowed 20-plus points in six of their regulars season contests their final two conference tests saw North and South Carolina combine for 69 points.
While old, this author is far from being old school, at least when it comes to evaluating and handicapping college football contests. A squad with a stiff defense and strong running game are not always the victors in campus events, especially when taking on a point-spread handicap. But in most situations, be it collegiate or professional football, defense wins championships.
The Crimson Tide allowed 20 points just twice all season and have held the opposition to 16 or less dating back to October. It is fair to write that the highest paid coach in college football, Nick Saban, and the highest paid defensive coordinator in the campus ranks, Kirby Smart, single-handedly destroyed any chance that LSU Tiger running back Leonard Fournette had at winning the Heisman Trophy this season. Smart and his staff did what they do to less talented teams, SEC foes, spread offensive units, when the coaching staff brilliantly put a game plan together to isolate the oppositions strengths. Saban, his staff, and the Tide defense held Florida to a mere 180 total yards in the SEC Championship Game. While you won’t see or hear mention of the best player in the history of Mississippi State football, Dak Prescott, being considered a dual threat quarterbacks when football analysts argue that the Tide’s Achilles is defending quarterbacks that can both run and throw, the fact is that Kirby’s unit held Prescott and the Bulldogs to only six points, at Davis Wade Stadium, in the mid-November event.
There were few defenses in college football that could, or should, be compared to what Saban and Smart’s unit executed on a weekly basis this 2015-16 season. The ACC Boston College Eagles defense allowed fewer yards per game this season than did SEC Alabama. And there is no comparing the two conferences top to bottom. Additionally, only Big 10 Wisconsin and Ohio State allowed fewer points than did Bama this season. The Finn Factor charts, power rated Alabama’s defense as easily the best college football, ranking as the top team against both the run and the pass, this season.
Far be it for the Finn Factor Charts, to undermine what Clemson accomplished this season, by calling the ACC the weakest of the Power Five conferences, but the facts and figures cannot be ignored. Note that theTiger opponents this regular season went 2-5 in bowl play, with the league’s two holiday wins came against Appalachian State and a Texas A&M squad that played without a tried quarterback.
It is nearly impossible to break down tonight’s Championship contest without writing a short-story and since my argument is that backing the Alabama Crimson Tide is the most responsible fiscal action, we will limit this copy to Alabama highlights and Clemson liabilities.
The Tigers did accomplish a perfect and undefeated regular season, when referencing the win and loss columns in the standings, but they had their fare share of struggles doing such. There was a run of fortunate factors for Clemson that allowed them to hold on against Notre Dame. Additionally, when watching film of what the North Carolina offense was able to execute against the Tigers defense in the ACC championship, there are a number of red flags in this matchup if you support the Tigers. Follow the red-flag variables up with the fact that a second string Baylor offense destroyed the Tar Heels in the Russell Athletic Bowl makes one question the strength of schedule that Clemson played, and their chances tonight against the best defense in amateur football.
The 2015-16 campaign for both of tonight’s teams has been anything from perfect, with evidence of such when looking at Alabama’s loss to Mississippi during this season’s Crimson Tide SEC slate. Even Clemson’s perfect season record has major flaws in how they accomplished the feat. The Tigers defense game up a ridiculous 32 points to South Carolina and while this team has done what it had to do to register a “W” week in and week out, they have never been asked to perform under the pressure of what they face tonight, not this season, and not when examining their body of work through a soft Athletic Coast Football Conference.
Clemson is the No. 1 ranked team, both in the national polls and in the CFB rankings with a perfect 14-0 regular season schedule. But that record will not extend to 15-0 against the defensive ability of Alabama. The Crimson Tide did the unthinkable this season against the likes of Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Georgia, Auburn, LSU and even Wisconsin. The unthinkable meaning winning games that were, all things being equal, not close. And it is worth noting that all of the aforementioned teams were… 2015-16 holiday bowl winners.
While the Big 10 had its share of disappointments, and surprises this season, they still consist of talented teams, including the well coached troupe of Michigan State. Ask any football savvy MSU fan what they saw when watching Alabama dismember the confidence of the Spartans during the semi-final debacle in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Eve and to a man, or women, most will tell you that the event should not be called a game.
The best front seven in college football (Alabama) could, with some imagination, be compared to many NFL defensive fronts. The Crimson Tide tackle the challenge of containing Clemson sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson tonight on the University of Phoenix Stadium field in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game.
How did Clemson register their undefeated season and how do they win tonight?:
Make no mistake about the fact that Clemson has put together a perfect season by running the football. While Watson completed over 65 percent of his passes this year the team’s offense rushed for 199 yards or more 12 times this year. The lowest ground output for the Tigers this season came against the team that has allowed the second least average yards per game, behind Alabama, that being Boston College, when Clemson ran for just 112 yards, Watson claiming 32 of those, in the 34-17 win over the Eagles.
The success of this Dabo Swinney team starts and ends with quarterback, Watson, in combination with the squads running backs, and while the unit is much more pro-stylish than that of Alabama, their wins have been engineered -- bottom line -- via the Deshaun Watson Show.
Note: Alabama, however, has yet to give up 199 yards on the ground this season.
Alabama has lost its last three FBS games when giving up 199-plus yards rushing, including against Ohio State last season.
How does Alabama cover and win this Championship game tonight?
The way they have all season, and during most of Coach Nick’s tenure at the school, by limiting rushing yards and putting the opposition in uncomfortable down and distance situations.
This is a battle of the top ranked Tigers and the No #2 Tide, and while the two teams are different in a number of ways, talent and scheme wise, defensive wins championships.
If you have any hesitation that such is gospel simply look back at this past weekend’s NFL Wild Card contest. If you watched the four games, and spent time reviewing the box scores, it would have fortified your belief that defense does in fact win big games.
1. The Kansas City Chiefs, who don't receive enough credit for their defense, shutout the home field Houston Texans, 30-0, the first Wild Card contest on Saturday.
2. While one shouldn’t focus or spend too much time arguing which team, Seattle Seahawks or Minnesota Vikings, brought the better stop-unit to the Sunday’s Wild-Card affair, fortune shined on Pete Carroll and his crew. However, NFL teams, create their own fortune (luck) and the best defensive team in Sunday’s contest in the Twin Cities not only won but moved on.
3. The Pittsburgh Steelers were anything but one of the better defensive teams in the NFL this season, statically speaking, but the staff found a way to limit the Cincinnati Bengals offensive with a well engineered defensive scheme winning a low scoring playoff contest.
4. A damaged Green Bay Packers offense excelled against a Washington Redskins defense that ranked at, or near, the bottom of the league in most important categories.
After all of the non-sensical verbiage, that has been debated, argued, and spewed the last week when outlining this championship tilt, the common denominator is that the one variable you can put your hard earned money on is…. That the Bama defense is the beast in this contest, not the Heisman second runner-up quarterback…. Watson.
The rumors are true that Bama has not faced Superman this season, or a quarterback as nifty as Deshaun Watson. But the two sign-callers I believe that have similar dual-threat ability, and the mentality that can be compared to Watson, were contained by the Bama defensive front seven. The Tide have faced the likes of a Watson... in Tennessee’s Joshua Dobbs and Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott. Both of these two field generals, who have nifty feet of their own, gained a total of 35 net rushing yards combined.
Every single season the Alabama coaching staff has to figure ways to motivate a squad that is expected to be in this exact position, playing in the championship game. They not only have to do it in the thick of the regular season, they have to motivate kids that face these expectations before the campaign sees the first play. Now that the 2015-16 college football prognostications have come to fruition and Bama is playing, again, for the title, the coaching staff’s job of conceiving motivation, isn’t as daunting. Despite the fact that Alabama is touchdown favorite tonight this Tide group has practiced and prepared as the No. 2 seed, as the underdog per se, this after watching all of the ESPN and national media coverage about the destiny of Dabo’s team of Tigers.
For the sake of tonight’s investment, ignore the constant and frequent commentary that Alabama’s defensive Achilles is their inability to contain dual-threat quarterbacks. And while history tells us that signal-callers with a strong arm and nimble feet, like Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel, Auburn’s Nick Marshall and Oklahoma’s Trevor Knight came up with huge performances against former Saban defenses, none of those team’s had the talent of this squads front line, the units ability to rush the quarterback, or the man-to-man talent this defense has in the secondary.
This Alabama defense is the wrong fit for Clemson success. Expect nothing short of spectacular Nick Saban led performance, much like the one last week versus Michigan State and during the regular season against LSU -- when this Crimson Tide squad was looking to make a statement.
Steve Merril
Alabama -6.5
Clemson had a surprising season by going undefeated at 14-0 SU. The Tigers were projected to be a year or two away from having a really good team after losing a lot of talent from last year’s 10-3 SU team that beat Oklahoma 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Clemson was hardly challenged this season, but their two closest games came against the two best defenses they faced; they beat Louisville 20-17 and they beat Notre Dame 24-22. The Tigers will now face the best defense in the country, so their offense has an extremely difficult challenge ahead of them. Alabama’s defense allowed just 13.4 points per game on 4.1 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. The Crimson Tide had even better defensive numbers away from home where they gave up just 12 points per game. Clemson’s offense and quarterback Deshaun Watson may pose a threat to Alabama’s defense early on because the Tigers run the spread and Watson is the best mobile quarterback in the country. “I think mobile quarterbacks are a problem for every defense, not just us,” said Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart. “We’re maybe better at stopping the traditional-style offenses.” While that is concerning, it also means Watson is going to take more powerful hits than normal, and that will take a toll on him as this game goes on.
Alabama went 13-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming back in Week 3 against Mississippi as 9-point favorites when the Tide suffered a 5-0 turnover disadvantage. Twelve of their thirteen wins this season have come by 13 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping +23.1 points per game. Alabama’s offense was extremely well-balanced this season as they averaged 204 yards per game on the ground and 219 yards per game thru the air. Alabama ran for 215 yards or more in eight games this season, and they won those games by an average of +18.9 points per game. Clemson’s defense allowed 130 rushing yards or more seven times this season, and the Tigers gave up 25.3 points per game in those games. Clemson’s defense gave up just 20 points per game overall, so their defense is vulnerable against good rushing attacks, and Alabama has one of the best in the country with Derrick Henry. Overall, Alabama ranked 9th in offensive and defensive efficiency combined while Clemson ranked 28th. That’s a significant difference, and it clearly shows that Alabama is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Crimson Tide in this national championship game on Monday night.