Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 2

Marc Lawrence

Florida @ Ohio St.
Pick: Ohio St. +2

While many refer to this as the ‘Urban Bowl’ since former Florida head coach Urban Meyer has accepted the same position with Ohio State in 2012, we could just as easily dub this the ‘Look Out Below Bowl’ as both squads arrive lost in a downward spiral. After a promising 4-0 start under new head coach Will Muschamp, the Gators went into the toilet following an injury to QB John Brantley, going 2-6 SU down the stretch. In the process, Florida went 0-for-October for the first time since 1971 and enters this game on a 0-7 ATS skid. After dominating the Big Ten for years under departed coach Jim Tressel, the Buckeyes couldn’t even manage a winning record in conference play this year, going 3-5 after finishing with losses against Purdue, Penn State and Michigan (Wolverines’ first series victory since 2003). As a result, teams that combined for a SU record of 87-19 the previous four seasons now arrive as a pair of red-faced 6-6 squads. Ohio State must also be wondering if deciding to forego today’s bowl appearance would have prevented the NCAA from dropping a 2012 bowl ban bomb on Meyer’s new team back in December. As you might expect, neither side has much to flaunt in the way of ATS achievements. The Gators have gone 1-4 SU and ATS off a loss versus the Big Ten of late and bowl favorites with first-year coaches are an undependable 11-21-1 ATS. Big Ten bowlers haven’t fared much better when playing off a loss versus the SEC, going just 5-11 ATS. And if you think focusing exclusively on this year’s stats will break the stalemate, fugeddaboutit: Florida finished 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS against fellow bowlers in 2011 while Ohio State bucked some solid history with a futile 1-7 mark ‘In The State’s versus bowlers this season. In the end, we’ll give OSU the nod knowing Big Ten bowlers off back-to-back losses have cashed to the tune of 13-5-1 ATS, and .700 or less Big Ten bowl dogs are 16-6-1 ATS versus a foe off a SU defeat. The Buckeyes get some belated payback for their 2006 BCS Championship loss to the Meyer-coached Gators. How the mighty have fallen. We recommend a 1-unit play on Ohio State.

Wunderdog Sports

Florida vs. Ohio State
Play: Over 44

The Gator Bowl features a pair of teams off of disappointing seasons from the standard these programs have set. Both Ohio State and Florida barely made it to a Bowl game each with 6-6 records on the season. Florida had an impossible task with five of their losses coming at the hands of teams that went a combined 53-10 on the season, and at one point three of them were ranked No. 1, 2 and 3 in the BCS standings and a fourth, Georgia, played for the SEC Championship. It made a huge difference in the Gators offense which averaged just 12 points per game in those five games, but 35.3 ppg in all their other games. While I don't think they get to 35 here they don't need to with a low total, and the fact that QB John Brantley who missed time is healthy again, adding to the potency of their offense. Ohio State allowed just 16.3 ppg in their first seven, but the defense surrendered 20+ to each of their last five opponents, at 27 ppg. The Buckeyes’ offense also came to life in the last five, averaging 27.6 ppg. Florida has gone a perfect 7-0 to the OVER in their last seven vs. the Big-10, and I like this one to go OVER the total.

Rob Vinciletti

Virginia vs. LSU
Play: Under 111

This game fits a multitude of totals angles for both teams. Virginia has gone under in 7 of 8 this season and 17 of 24 off anon conference game the past few years, In games vs teams who allow 65 or less they go under 15 of 21 and over the last 15 years have played under in 7 of 9 when the total is 120 or less. LSU has played under in 8 of 10 this year and 17 of 20 the last 3 years vs teams who allow 65 or less. In games vs the ACC They have played under all 5 times the last 15 years. As a home dog of 3 or less they have played under the last 4 times. This one stays under tonight.

David Chan

San Jose Sharks @ Vancouver Canucks
PICK: Vancouver Canucks

The 19-11-4 San Jose Sharks storm into Vancouver to take on the surging 24-13-2 Canucks.

In my opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value".

San Jose plays with "revenge", and that's an important factor that I will always take into consideration; however in this case, I don't think it holds any weight whatsoever:

“They’re always big games against San Jose,” defenseman Kevin Bieksa said. “They’re going to be ready for us. You know, last game was a playoff-type atmosphere, I think.”

No Shark player has registered more than one point in the first two 2011/12 matchups; the Canucks' Sedin brothers have totaled three points for Vancouver in those games.

Note that Vancouver once again leads the league with a 24.2% on the power play.

Roberto Luongo had 33 saves in the 3-2 win last Wednesday vs. San Jose; note that Antti Niemi is just 2-5-2 with a 3.19 GAA vs. Vancouver.

I bet value where I see it; consider laying the price!

Jim Feist

Wizards vs Celtics
Pick: Under

The Wizards will have to spin some magic here on Monday if they hope to keep from starting the season 0-5. They are playing a home-and-home spot here against the Celtics, hosting Boston on Sunday and playing in Boston on Monday. Sunday wasn't a good result for the Wizards, as they dropped the game, xx-xx. Offense has been almost non-existent for Washington as they have yet to break 90 points! Bettors and over players should stay clear of Washington games. Not only are the Wizards 0-4 ATS, but all four of their games have gone UNDER. Now they have to play back-to-back, which I believe always favors the UNDER because teams are tired. Both of these clubs are playing back-to-back and three games in four nights. Boston started the season with three straight OVERS, but their last two have now gone UNDER as they have played slow teams in the Pistons and Wizards. The total on tonight's game opened at 185, a couple of points less than Sunday's total. Even though Boston can easily get 100, I just don't see this Washington club getting much from tired legs when they haven't been scoring at all this season. Until these Washington totals start hitting the 170's, I'm going UNDER.

Great Lakes Sports

Orlando at Detroit
Play: Orlando

The Orlando Magic are a perfect 4-0 ATS their last four games when playing with no days rest, and the Orlando Magic are a stellar 4-0 ATS their last four games vs a team with a straight up losing record. The Orlando Magic is also a perfect 3-0 ATS their last three games in the role of a favorite, and the road team is an outstanding 5-1 ATS the last six meetings in this series. We look for the Orlando Magic to roll over the Detroit Pistons and grab the road ATS Win & Cover tonight.

EZWINNERS

Wisconsin Badgers +6

Many people are calling this the battle of power vs. speed as the Badgers of Wisconsin meet the Ducks of Oregon, but the Badgers have some speed of their own at the playmaker positions. Both of these teams will most likely be able to score at will, so this is a great spot to take any points that are available. This is the first time this season that the Badgers have been an underdog and they were a perfect 3-0 against the spread as an underdog last season. Take the points!

TJ Pemberton

Stanford vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Oklahoma State -3½

At First Glance: This Bowl match-up will mark the first ever meeting between Stanford and Oklahoma State. Stanford is 5-7 against teams that are currently aligned in the Big 12 Conference (1-0 Kansas; 1-0 Missouri; 1-4 Oklahoma; 2-2 Texas; 0-1 Texas A&M). The last time Stanford played a Big 12 team was in the 2009 Sun Bowl, where the Cardinal dropped a 31-27 decision to Oklahoma.

Stanford: While the Stanford Cardinals are an offensive minded team primarily due to their quarterback Andrew Luck, it is their rushing game {ranked 22nd in the country} is the key to this offense. In Stanford’s first 8 games, helmsman Andrew Luck was brilliant throwing 24 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. However, in his last 4 match-ups Luck has not been himself at all tossing 12 touchdowns with an alarming 5 interceptions. At best he has looked average. Defensively, in their first 7 outings this unit only allowed 80 points, but in their last 5 encounters they gave up 146 points. Even though their scoring defense is ranked 23rd, the Cardinals’ passing defense ranked 78th should be their demise to the Cowboys pass happy offense.

Oklahoma State: The Oklahoma State Cowboys are coming in here on a major roll on both sides of the ball outscoring their opponent 141 to 53 in the last 3 outings. They are second in the country in scoring {49} and passing offense {386}, and 3rd in total offense accumulating 557 yards per game. Quarterback Brandon Weeden is fourth in the nation in total offense producing 352 yards per game. The Cowboys have 3 defensive players in the top 25 with interceptions and the Cowboys are second in turnover margin.

The Bottom Line: The Oklahoma State Cowboys definitely have too much firepower for Cardinals’ passing defense ranked 78th. State’s defensive will look for a few picks from Stanford’s Andrew Luck, who in this writer’s opinion is way overrated!

Doug Upstone

Michigan / Georgia Under

We have six fun bowl games to watch and wager on, with the Outback Bowl drawing interest here for Monday. When neutral field teams like Georgia and Michigan State have won three out of their last four games, against a hot opponent having won eight or more out of their last 10 contests and the total is between between 49.5 and 56, the UNDER is 26-5 the last two decades.

Vegas Experts

Stanford at Oklahoma St
Play: Over

It should be points a plenty in this year's Fiesta Bowl as two of the nation's highest scoring offenses meet in Tempe. Stanford was fifth in the country with 43.6 PPG while OSU was even better at #2 with 49.3 PPG. We've seen two totals of 70 higher this Bowl season and both went way over, one of those being the infamous Baylor/Washington game. The Pokes scored at least 30 in every game and face a Stanford defense that allowed 53 points to Oregon. The Cardinal was held under 30 points only one time and that was in an easy win over Notre Dame where they coasted to victory. Should be plenty of fun with two great quarterbacks.

Sean Murphy

San Antonio @ Minnesota
PICK: Minnesota +5

As strange as it sounds, we actually have a better idea of where the T'Wolves stand than we do of the Spurs right now.

San Antonio is off to a 3-1 start, but all three of its wins have come at home, and in its lone road game, it was blasted by 20 points in Houston.

The T'Wolves have been competitive in all four games, going a perfect 4-0 ATS, and should be extremely confident heading into Monday's contest, having just posted their first outright win of the season last night against Dallas.

The fact that Minnesota hasn't beaten San Antonio in what seems like an eternity should only add fuel to its fire. Keep in mind, this isn't the same rag-tag T'Wolves squad we've seen in recent years. This is a team that's loaded with young talent, and one that's shown poise in the face of a very tough schedule to open the season.

The Spurs haven't been nearly as tough on the road over the last couple of seasons, largely a product of an aging roster. Given the way they played in their first road game this season, there's little reason to expect anything different.

Look for the T'Wolves to go toe-to-toe with another one of the West's supposed 'elite' teams on Monday night.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit South Carolina -3

Motivated by 3 straight bowl losses and a chance to become the winningest team in school history, expect the Gamecocks to take care of business this afternoon. Nebraska is about as one-dimensional on offense as it gets. The Huskers rank 14th in rushing offense with 223.9 yards per game and 103rd in passing offense with 166.6 yards per game. The Gamecocks, which is 3rd in the nation in total defense with 268.9 yards allowed per contest, is not about to let Nebraska beat them on the ground. South Carolina will force Taylor Martinez to beat it through the air, and I don't see it happening. The "running quarterback" has completed only 55.9% of his passes on the season with 12 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Forcing Martinez to pass gives the defense an opportunity to make big plays. The guy was lucky to only have 7 passes picked off. The Gamecocks lean heavily on their running attack as well but should have an opportunity to grind this one out against a Nebraska defense allowing 161.6 yards per game on the ground. The Gamecocks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less, and we'll take them in the small chalk here.

Dave Price

1 Unit Nebraska/South Carolina Under 46

Expect a low-scoring game as a pair of one-dimensional offenses will be challenged by a pair of very good defenses. Both Nebraska and South Carolina rely heavily on ground attacks, and with both defenses capable of taking away the run, this game will likely fall on a pair of unproven passers. The Under is 5-1 in the Cornhuskers' last 6 games overall and 4-0 in their last 4 bowl games. The Under is 7-3 in the Gamecocks' last 10 games overall and 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.

SPORTS WAGERS

Penn State +8 over HOUSTON

It’s difficult to even talk Penn State football these days with that huge “elephant in the room” hanging over the school. Regardless of the outcome, a football game cannot restore dignity in this historic program in one football game. Having said that, the Nittany Lions might not be in such bad shape here, as couldn’t have handpicked a more vulnerable Bowl team to run against. Penn State is bigger up front, they played a much tougher schedule than the Cougars and they played the last month of the season under extreme adverse conditions. They really could come out focused here and pull off the upset. Penn State has serious talent issues at the QB position but as mentioned, they’ll run left, run right and run up the middle all day long. Houston went 12-1 and put up some eye-opening offensive numbers. Case Keenam is an outstanding QB and comparing him to either one of PSU’s QB’s, Matt McGloin or Rob Bolden, is like comparing Drew Brees to Tim Tebow. However, Houston racked up points and yards against some pretty lame competition all season long and it’s truly difficult to get a read on what this team is capable of against good competition. The Lions are going to have to win this game with its defense and sustaining long drives on the ground and it’s quite possible that’ll happen. You’re always paying a price to wager on high scoring teams that seemingly can’t be stopped and that’s certainly the case here. Play: Penn State +8 (No bets).

Ohio State +118 over FLORIDA

An ugly year for the Gators is something that can’t be overlooked coming into this game. This is a Florida team that lost six of its last eight games with only wins down the stretch coming against Vandy and Furman. The Gators didn’t have an impressive win on their docket all season long while compiling several bad losses. Florida has a weak offense that did absolutely nothing against quality programs. They’re about to go through some serious changes in the off-season. It’s never been a good idea to play on teams that limp into this type of game in such a poor state of mind and that’s precisely the situation here. Ohio State also had a 6-6 record but there were few expectations and after the scandal and dust settled, this unit is feeling so much better about next year. That renewed attitude should carry over into this one for the Buckeyes even after losing their last three games. Those losses were to Purdue, Penn State and Michigan and all three were close. Prior to that, OSU won three in a row over Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana and one could argue that they had a very satisfying final six games and the momentum is unlikely to stop here. Play: Ohio State +118 (Risking 2 units).

Michigan State +3 +104 over Georgia

The Spartans lost the Big-10 Championship play on a roughing the kicker call that gave the Badgers a first down, allowing Wisconsin to run out the clock. The mental anguish of that loss is the only concern here for State but all indications are that the Spartans are focused and this is too good a team to be spotting points to. Michigan State has a significant edge in many key departments and that includes both lines up front, the ground game and special teams. Georgia has some weapons of their own and they did win a lot of games this year. However, when the going got tough, it rarely got going as losses to Boise State, South Carolina and LSU will attest to. The Bulldogs lost all three of those games by two TD’s or more. The Spartans are simply the more balanced team and we’re not convinced that the Bulldogs should be favored here. Play: Michigan State +3 +104 (Risking 2 units).

South Carolina –3 +100 over Nebraska

This is a really a cheap lay on the superior Gamecocks. South Carolina lost twice this season. One of those losses came early in the year against Auburn and the other came against powerhouse Arkansas. They closed out the year with three straight wins and they whacked Clemson 34-13 in the season finale. That was a statement win in a big game. South Carolina’s offense came on in the final six weeks. Its defense had one outstanding game after another all season and they should easily impose their will against a weak Nebraska offensive front. Nebraska lost just three games all season but that’s misleading, as they beat a lot of weak Big-10 schools among other weak teams to start the year. Its signature win on the season came against Michigan State in a big letdown spot after the Spartans won over Michigan and Wisconsin. In the final month of the season the Huskers beat Iowa and Penn State while losing to Northwestern and Michigan. This is a step up from the teams they lost to already and thus, nothing suggests they can compete with the Gamecocks. Play: South Carolina –3 +100 (Risking 2 units).

Wisconsin +6 over OREGON

It's tough for a top-10 team to be underrated but Wisconsin would be favored against at least four teams that are ranked above them. The Badgers are much like Oregon in that they’re a true offensive juggernaut with just enough defense to take home the conference championship. Apart from the thrilling twin bill with Sparty, the Badgers' only struggles were one poor half at Illinois and a "let-the-last-game-beat-you-twice" letdown against Ohio State the week after the Hail Mary in East Lansing. Otherwise, Wisconsin has utterly dominated its opposition, becoming the first team since 1950 to win each of its first six games by 30 points. The résumé includes complete domination over the standout defenses of Nebraska and Penn State. The Badgers are a complete team that belongs in this game. The Ducks score often and they score quickly. They run the two-minute drill all game long and they can really tire out a defense. However, in terms of talent, both offensively and defensively, the Badgers match up well and they’re in no way intimidated by this setting. As it turns out, Oregon allowed an alarming number of points to almost every team they played and that includes UCLA, Arizona, LSU and Washington State. The Badgers could go off for 40 or more and that means the Ducks are going to have to put up close to 50 to cover this number. Play: Wisconsin +6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Oklahoma State –4 over Stanford

The Pac-12 is not up to its usual standards this season, as evidenced by the dismissal of a third of the league's coaches, as many firings as the SEC, Big 12, ACC and Big East suffered combined. Stanford benefited from the softest schedule in the league, along with the health and momentum built by not facing even a single winning team in the first half of the season. Even in blowout victories, several players admitted that the team's performance was not up to previous standards. Stanford dominated poor competition during the first half of the season but production faltered as the schedule stiffened down the stretch. This team is fatally weak in many areas but all of it was masked due to that poor competition. When they played Oregon, they were crushed and a similar fate is awaiting them here. The Cowboys' defense has been maligned all year thanks to poor national rankings in terms of yardage allowed. The reality is that the bulk of that yardage was surrendered in garbage time. The Cowboys feel slighted by the BCS but we can’t imagine them faltering here. Instead, we expect them to respond with a huge effort the disrespect they were shown by the committee. Stanford is good but they’re simply not in OSU’s class. Play: Oklahoma State –4 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).