SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +119 over OTTAWA
As long as the books keep offering us these take-backs on the Devils, we’ll continue to confidently endorse them. All they do is keep winning games and keep outplaying the opposition. As a +120 pooch in its last game against Pittsburgh, New Jersey dominated the first period, took a 2-0 lead and in typical Devils style, shut down the Pens the rest of the way en route to an impressive 3-1 victory. Unlike Stanley Cup Devil teams in the past, this one can score goals and they still possess the league’s hottest line and a sizzling Ilya Kovalchuk. The Devils have now won nine of its past 12 games. Over the past calendar year, dating back to last December 31, New Jersey has recorded 102 points. Why this team is being overlooked is a mystery but that’s for others to figure out. For our money, the Devils once again offer up tremendous value and there’s no chance we’re passing up another opportunity to cash on them. Definite overlay. Play: New Jersey +119 (Risking 2 units).
Scott Delaney
Let's get to my complimentary winner for Monday, as I take a look at the 1 p.m. kick in Tampa, where I like Michigan State plus the points against Georgia. I realize both of these teams are coming in after losing their conference championship games, and the proximity from Athens to Tampa would seemingly give the Bulldogs a bit of an edge, but while coach Mark Richt's boys were getting throttled by LSU in the SEC title game, the Spartans were giving Wisconsin a fit in the Big Ten championship.
After leading the top-ranked Tigers early, Georgia faded quickly en route to a 42-10 blowout loss. But Michigan State lost to the Badgers, 42-39, amazingly putting up 22 more than Wisconsin is used to allowing with its sixth-ranked scoring defense.
Based on what I saw LSU do to the Bulldogs, something tells me Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio will use that gameplan as a blueprint with his fifth-ranked defense and ninth-ranked scoring defense.
Prior to the conference championship, the Spartans had held their previous five opponents to an average of 17.8 points per game. For the season, Michigan State limited 10 of 12 regular-season foes to 24 points or less, while it held six of them to 17 points or less.
Though Georgia has an equally impressive defense, one that went through a tougher SEC, I like Michigan State's senior quarterback Kirk Cousins, who will graduate having set several career records, including 65 career touchdown passes. He needs 102 yards to become the school's all-time leader in passing yards, and should have that accomplished by the middle of the second quarter. He and senior receiver B.J. Cunningham have become quite the combination, as Cunningham will leave Lansing as the program's all-time leader with 211 receptions and 3,020 receiving yards.
And it runs a bit deeper than those two seniors, as there are 36 in all - the most of any senior class in the history of this program. Big Ten pride runs deep in bowl games, it always has, and with the Spartans mired in a 0-4 bowl skid under Dantonio, they're going to want to make the last game of their careers a winning one. Take the points in this one, and for insurance purposes, grab the extra half point with the Spartans.
5♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie goes early on the Houston Cougars as the touchdown or so favorite over the Penn State Nittany Lions.
For one thing, Houston gets to play this game pretty much in their backyard, as the Cotton Bowl figures to be packed with Cougar fans looking for a better result than their last trip to a bowl game in 2009 when QB Case Keenum tossed six interceptions in a loss to Air Force.
You may make a case that Penn State plays in the "power conference" Big 10, and that is indeed true, the problem is, the Nittany Lions attack more resembles a pop-gun as the Lions were held to 20-points or less in each of their last four games, and eight of their twelve overall contests.
That lack of offense will not cut it against the high-octane Cougars spread attack. Houston went 9-3 against the spread this season, and they came up with a whopping 51 touchdown passes overall this season.
Sure, the upset loss to Southern Miss in the connference championship game was a stunner, and the fact head coach Kevin Sumlin has departed will probably have some effect on Houston's preparation, but those distractions are minor compared to the turmoil that Penn State went through to end the season, and the fact Matt McGloin's dust-up will keep him on the bench for this one also can't help matters.
Houston to make amends today as they wear down the Penn State defense which figures to be on the field a little more than they would like this afternoon at the Cotton Bowl.
4♦ HOUSTON
Matt Rivers
Your Monday free play winner is to look for this afternoon's Capital One Bowl to be a low-scoring defensive battle between Nebraska and South Carolina.
Nebraska's last pair of bowl games have seen a combined 33 and 26-points for a pair of unders, while South Carolina's last three bowl games have seen combined finals of: 41, 27, and 43-points!
These schools like to get after it on the defensive end, and I don't see anything changing today as both offenses have been inconsistent for the better part of the regular season.
The Cornhuskers have played unders in six of their last nine games, while the Gamecocks have held low in seven of their last ten overall.
Don't look for too many end-zone celebrations in this one. Nebraska and South Carolina to play a defensive slugfest this afternoon in Orlando. The under the way to go here.
4♦ UNDER
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s look at the New Orleans Hornets to cover against the Utah Jazz.
Shooting has to get better for the New Orleans Hornets.
The Hornets were belted by Sacramento 96-80 Sunday night. In that game, the Hornets went 0-for-15 from three-point range. They have to shoot better from there.
Utah lost to San Antonio 104-89 as the Jazz fell to 1-3. The lone win was at home against Philadelphia. The Jazz are 7-19 ATS at home in their last 26 games.
New Orleans average 85 points a game, while Utah average 90.5 points a game. Teams are shooting 48.4 percent from the floor against the Jazz. New Orleans will have a little better time on offense.
The Hornets are not that bad on defense. They hold opponents to 40.1 percent shooting.
The Jazz may win, but giving these many points is too good to pass up.
Take the Hornets.
3♦ HORNETS
Tony George
Oklahoma State -4
Lots of people like Stanford here, I am not one of them. I will say that Okie States defense is thier weakness, but their offense is so powerful and quick striking, nothing like Stanford has seen except Oregon, and we all saw what Oregon did to them that night. Okie State is one very bad OT loss at Iowa State late in the season from playing in the national title game, and I say they win this by 7-10 points tonight. Andrew Luck does not have near the weapons around him that QB Weeden does for Okie State. Ask yourself if Stanford could have blown out Oklahoma like Okie State did? Enough said.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Michigan State/ Georgia Under 50: Google News Play. It's not often that you find teams that rank in the top 12 defensively in total defense, rush defense and pass defense, but that's exactly what we have here. Both teams did allow 42 points in their respective Conference Title games, so you can expect the the focus of this game will be defense for both teams. Prior to their game with the Badgers, State had held their previous 3 opponents to just 13.7 ppg and 318.3 ypg, while Georgia held their their 4 opponents prior to the LSU game to 17 points or less. Let's also note that both teams are in the top 10 in the nation in defensive yards per play as Michigan State is 4th (4.1), while Georgia is 10th (4..4). Both teams are stout vs the run and both teams like to run, so there could be a lot of long yardage situations here and with a lot of running that will chew the clock. Both teams do have solid offenses, but on this day it will be all about the defenses as this game stays well UNDER the total. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Under in a neutral field game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This play is 58-20 since 1992.
4 UNIT PLAY
Wisconsin/ Oregon Under 72: The last thing that Wisconsin wants in this game is a shootout. They nearly lost the Big 10 title game by getting into a shootout with the Spartans So I don't expect them to try and get into one here. The Badgers do have an explosive offense, but the majority of their damage is done on the ground behind their massive offensive line as they look to wear teams down. Oregon is undersized in this one, but they have the advantage of speed on defense that should slow down this Badgers offense for much of the game. On defense the Badgers are 8th in total yards against and 3rd vs the pass, while they have allowed just 17 ppg. Now usually when you have a team that piles up the points and jumps out to big leads like the Badgers do, you will get a team that gives up a ton of garbage passing yards, but that's what's makes their 3rd ranked passing defense so much more impressive. They have shut down the pass even though that's all teams could do. The Ducks best shot at winning this one one will be with their power running game as the Badgers are just 46th vs the run. I look for a TON of running in this one and while their still will be a bunch of points scored I still don't see this game reaching the 70's.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma State/ Stanford Under 74: Google News Play. All season long the Cowboy defense has been ridiculed and for good reason as they were one of the worse for much of the year, but down the stretch vs Texas Tech and Oklahoma they did allowed just 16 total points. This is a defense that is playing with a chip on its shoulder and with the extra prep time they have a decent showing vs this Stanford offense. The Cardinal are going to find out quickly that they do not want to get in a shootout with the Cowboys. They tried it with Oregon and it got ugly. As a result the Cardinal will look to run the ball a bit more to control the clock and keep the powerful Cowboys offense on the sidelines. Stanford on defense does have problems vs the pass, but that is a bit misleading as teams have found themselves needing to pass to play catchup with the Cardinal. Overall Stanford is 25th in total defense and 23rd in scoring, so they do have the ability to slow this team down enough to make this allowed scoring game than one would expect. Stanford's good defesn e and ball control offense will keep this game in the 60's.
Penn State +7 over Houston: What a season the Cougars had, but in the end their bubble was burst in the loss to Southern Miss in the Conference USA Title game. The Cougars offense has been superb this year, but they haven't faced a team as imposing on defense as Penn State, so it will be interesting to see how Keenum fares. Chances are he is going to be successful, although not likely to the level he is accustomed. The Lions are 10th in total defense, allowing just 300.9 ypg and 4th in the nation vs the pass, allowing just 162.2 ypg and they have the team speed on that side of the ball to keep this Houston offense under wraps a bit. The Lions offense comes in 95th in total offense and 95th in passing, but the key to themn winning this one will be a running game that will keep this high powered Houston offense off the field. The Lions are 51st in rushing (164.4 ypg) and they will be facing a Houston run defense that is 78th in the nation, allowing 171.8 ypg. State will need that running attack to shorten this game. This once-proud PSU program is reeling in the aftermath of one of the worst scandals in sports history, so finishing this season on a high note is very important for them and that will motivate them and allow them to keep this one close, if not win it outright.
2 UNIT PLAY
Ohio State/ Florida Under 44: Google News Play. Both of these teams have been plagued by inconsistency at the QB slot, with Barxton Miller averaging just 90.6 ypg through the air, but his true worth however, came in the run game, as he led the team with 695 yards. RB Dan Herron (123 carries, 596 yards, three TDs) missed the first several games due to suspension, but came on late to give the Buckeyes some balance out of the backfield. Overall Ohio State finished 256th in rushing. The Buckeyes defense comes in ranked 55th vs the run and should have problems stopping the RB Tandem of Rainey and Demps here. Florida has also had QB issues this here and will not look to through that much vs a Buckeye defense that is 15th in the nation vs the pass. This is an important game for both as neither team wants to finish below .500 so i look for them both to play it close to the vest with lots of running, field position and defense. I expect a game in the mid to lower 30's here.
1 UNIT PLAY
South Carolina -2.5 over Nebraska: The Cornhuskers had a nice year in their first Big 10 season, going 9-3 overall and 5-3 in the conference, but they had a lot of problems on defense and their offense was inconsistent at times. Connor Shaw has done well managing the SC offense, while their defense rates the big edge in this one. I look for Carolina to take this one by about a TD.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Florida/Ohio State OVER 44
I'm expecting to see a little more offense than the odds makers think in Monday's Gator Bowl showdown. The Buckeyes have played to the Over in 4 of their last 5 games while averaging 27.6 points and giving up 27.0. I expect the offense to be even more polished after a month of practice. The Gators have struggled offensively this season but wouldn't have struggled as much had John Brantley not missed time with injuries. He's healthier than he's been in a long time and is expected to start this game. The Over is 5-1 in the Gators' last 6 bowl games, 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the Big Ten and 6-1 in their last 7 bowl games as a favorite. Bet the Over.
Real Animal
Wisconsin / Oregon Over 74
Both teams were 9-4 'OVER' the total this year. Wisconsin averages 44.6 points per game while Oregon is at 46.2. There were eight teams in the country to average 40 or more points this year and these are two of them. The Ducks have gone 'OVER' in their last four games scoring 49 points or more in three of them. They scored 53 points at Stanford but was certainly helped by the five Cardinal turnovers. Oregon is 8-1 'OVER' the last three years as a single-digit favorite. The Ducks are an incredible 33-16-2 'OVER' in their last 51 games. A high total for sure and would prefer this game be played on the carpet. But when you consider the two quarterbacks in this game, Russell Wilson and Darron Thomas, combined for 61 touchdowns this year against just nine interceptions. Go 'OVER'.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +167 over DENVER
Take the 4½-points being offered if you like. If the game is that close going to the fourth, we like the Bucks chances and here’s why: First, Denver will be playing its third game in three days. That’s back-to-back-to-back games and that’s something no team in the NBA is accustomed to yet. Secondly, the Nuggets are coming off back-to-back games against the Lakers and you know for sure intensity was high and even higher yesterday after they lost the first game in Los Angeles. Furthermore, it’s the Nuggets fifth game in six days and again, if the Bucks are close, they’ll have a great chance of putting away this exhausted host and if they’re leading, they’ll have an even better chance of putting them away. Forget breaking down the X’s and O’s here, as this is simply a bad and highly unusual situational spot for a Nuggets team running on fumes. The Bucks come in rested, having played just three games thus far. Play: Milwaukee +167 (Risking 2 units).
Dr. Bob
Strong Opinion
PENN ST. (+7.5) 26 Houston 27
This game will come down to how well a great Penn State defense can defend a prolific Houston offense and every indication is that the Nittany Lions can win that battle. Houston’s offense put up crazy numbers this season, averaging 50.3 points on 589.6 yards at 7.7 yards per play in 12 games against Division 1A opponents that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. That unit was actually a slightly better 2.1 yppl better than average when Case Keenum was in the game and Keenum averaged 8.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback. Penn State’s defense, meanwhile, is 1.2 yppl better than average for the season, yielding just 4.5 yppl and 16.5 points per game to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense.
It appears that Houston’s offense has a pretty solid 0.9 yppl advantage based those ratings. However, the Cougars racked up huge yards against bad defensive teams while playing relatively much worse against good defensive teams. Keenum was 2.5 yppp better than average overall this season but he was just 1.2 yppp better than average against the 6 average or better pass defenses that he faced, averaging 7.1 yppp against UCLA, Louisiana Tech, East Carolina, SMU, Tulsa, and Southern Miss, who would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Penn State will easily be the best pass defense that Keenum has faced and he managed just 4.9 yppp against the best pass defense he faced in the regular season (Southern Miss in the CUSA Championship game). Keenum has 284 pass plays against average or better pass defenses, which is a big sample, so it’s pretty strong evidence that his relative numbers against a good Penn State defense will be considerably worse than his overall pass rating. Using Keenum’s stats against all teams against Penn State’s defense would project 6.35 yppp for Houston in this game. However, using Keenum’s stats against the 6 decent pass defenses that Houston faced would result in a prediction of 5.32 yppp for Keenum in this game.
It’s also a good idea to see how Penn State’s defense performed against good passing teams and the Nittany Lions were relatively better defending the pass against good quarterbacks than they were overall. Penn State faced 3 very good passing teams this season in Alabama, Northwestern (with Persa) and Wisconsin. The quarterbacks of those teams would combine to average 8.4 yppp against an average defense but Penn State allowed just 5.4 yppp to those good quarterbacks, giving up 5.3 yppp to Alabama, 5.4 yppp to Northwestern, and 5.6 yppp to Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson, who actually has a pass rating that is 0.5 yppp higher than Keenum’s pass rating. The Nittany Lions were 2.0 yppp better than average defending the pass this season (4.5 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.5 yppp), but they were 3.0 yppp better than average against those very good quarterbacks. A regression equation of the rating of the opposing quarterbacks of all their games (adjusted for site) and what Penn State allowed per pass play to each quarterback would yield a prediction of 5.36 yppp allowed to a quarterback with Keenum’s rating. That number is extremely close to the 5.32 yppp that was projected for Keenum using his games against average or better defensive teams. So, there is certainly some strong evidence to suggest that the prediction for Houston’s pass offense in this game should be 5.34 yppp instead of the 6.35 yppp that the math would predict using all games for Houston. I’ll get back to that point later, but let’s take a look at Penn State’s offense and Houston’s defense first.
Penn State’s offense struggled this season (5.1 yppl and just 17.8 points per game against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl and 22.4 points to an average attack) but that unit was certainly better when Matt McGloin was at quarterback rather than Rob Bolden. McGloin averaged a decent 6.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback and he threw just 5 interceptions on 239 pass plays. Bolden, meanwhile averaged a pathetic 4.4 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp and he threw 4 interceptions on just 115 pass plays. Penn State’s offense took a hit when McGloin suffered a concussion while fighting with a teammate and he was not cleared to play in this game, which means that Bolden will get the start. Penn State’s offense is 0.7 yards per play worse than average with Bolden at quarterback but there is hope that the extra practices in the last month have helped him regain his confidence (he was actually about average as a quarterback last season).
Houston’s defense didn’t get a lot of acclaim this season due to their prolific offensive numbers but the Cougars were solid defensively, allowing 5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, and that unit got much better against the pass when Kent Brooks was inserted into the free safety spot in week 6. Brooks didn’t knock down many balls (just 2 passes defended) but he didn’t allow receivers to get behind him much and Houston allowed just 4.9 yppp in 8 games with Brooks in the starting lineup (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.7 yppp against an average team). My math model projects just 4.2 yppp for Bolden in this game (assuming he hasn’t improved during bowl practices) but Penn State is projected to run for 220 yards at 5.2 yards per rushing play.
Overall the math model favors Houston by 7 points with Bolden at quarterback for Penn State, with Brooks at free safety for Houston, and using all games for Keenum’s pass rating. However, as discussed above, there is pretty strong evidence to support the theory that Keenum won’t perform relatively as well against a good pass defense given that his rating was much lower against the 6 best pass defenses he faced while Penn State’s pass defense was relatively much better against better quarterbacks. By the way, I think it’s important to point out that the 45 points that Penn State allowed in their season ending loss at Wisconsin is very misleading given that the Lions allowed just 5.8 yards per play to a Badgers’ attack that would average 7.4 yppl at home against an average defensive team. That’s actually a better defensive rating for Penn State (1.6 yppl better than average) than their season rating of 1.2 yppl better than average and the Nittany Lions’ defense also held the only other great offense they faced (Alabama) to 5.0 yppl, which is 2.0 yppl better than the 7.0 yppl that Alabama would average on the road against an average team. If I plug in 5.34 yppp for Houston in this game (as discussed above) then I only get Houston by 2 points. That doesn’t even take into account that Houston’s run offense (5.8 yprp against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp) was only average against the 4 good run defenses that they faced (averaged 4.0 yprp against Louisiana Tech, SMU, Tulsa, and Southern Miss, who would allow 4.1 yprp to an average team). Those 4 teams were also the only overall better than average defensive teams that Houston faced and the Cougars were only 1.0 yppl better than average (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl) against those better than average stop units (much lower than their +2.0 yppl average in all games) and Penn State is 0.6 yppl better defensively than those teams are collectively.
While my math model favors Houston by 7, which would indicate no line value, I actually think the Cougars should be favored by less than 7 points given their relative struggles against better defensive teams and Penn State’s relatively better play defensively against good offensive teams. My predicted total based on the math using all games for Houston is 56.5 points but I get 52.3 points after adjusting for their offensive performing worse than normal. In addition to the positive match up for Penn State, the Nittany Lions also apply to a decent 54-21-3 ATS bowl situation. I’ll consider Penn State a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more and I’ll lean with the under at 55 points or higher.
Strong Opinion
Nebraska (+3) 21 SOUTH CAROLINA 20
South Carolina has an elite defense but the Gamecocks are below average on offense and on special teams and I’ll side with a well-balanced Nebraska team in this game. South Carolina’s defense is one of the best units in the nation, allowing just 4.2 yards per play against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. If you take out the game against Navy (because how teams defend the option has very little to do with how good they are defensively against other teams) the Gamecocks are 1.7 yppl better than average, which ranks 4th best in the nation. Nebraska’s offense is only 0.4 yppl better than average (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) so they’re at a pretty big 1.3 yppl disadvantage in this game. The Cornhuskers average 4.3 yppl and 20.5 points against the two other elite defensive teams that they faced this season (Michigan State and Penn State) and my math model projects 293 yards at 4.3 yppl for Nebraska in this game.
Nebraska’s defense isn’t nearly as good as it’s been in recent years, but the Huskers are still 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team) and they have a 0.9 yppl advantage over a sub-par South Carolina attack that is just average running the ball since losing star RB Marcus Lattimore and 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average since Connor Shaw became the starting quarterback after Stephen Garcia was dismissed. Shaw’s numbers are skewed by the fact that he racked up big numbers against a bad Kentucky pass defense and against a mediocre Clemson pass defense, combining for 7.7 yards per pass play in those two games while struggling greatly against the better than average pass defenses of Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Florida (just 4.3 yppp in those 3 games). Nebraska’s pass defense is only 0.1 yppp worse than the average rating of those 3 teams and I expect Shaw to struggle throwing the ball in this game while the rushing attack is slowed by a solid Nebraska run defense (4.7 yprp against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp). That run defense really tightened up over the second half of the season, as the Huskers allowed just 4.2 yprp (to teams that would average 5.0 yprp) in their 6 games after their week 7 bye, which coincided with the new lineup following a season ending injury to Jared Crick, whose level of play was way down before he got hurt (which may be why the defense got better without him). South Carolina only faced two teams with Shaw at quarterback that are better than average defending the run and the pass and the Gamecocks scored just 14 points each against Mississippi State and against Florida, who combine to rate the same as Nebraska’s defense. My math model projects 321 yards at 4.6 yppl for South Carolina in this game but the numbers would be worse if Shaw continues to play relatively worse against better defensive teams.
South Carolina has a bit of an edge from the line of scrimmage but Nebraska have very strong special teams while South Carolina is weak in that area. In a game in which both offenses should struggle I expect special teams to play a role and my math favors Nebraska by 3 points in this game based on the projected stats and special teams. My adjusted points model favors South Carolina by ½ a point in this game even and the difference is because Nebraska under-performed their stats by 2.3 points per game while South Carolina out-played their stats by 1.2 points per game thanks to their strong red zone defense. The fair line is somewhere in between and the value is certainly in favor of Nebraska in this game. My math also projects just 43.3 total points in this game and I think it may be lower than that. I’ll consider Nebraska a Strong Opinion +3 or more (a lean at less than +3) and I also lean Under 45 points or more.
Strong Opinion
FLORIDA (-2.0) 25 Ohio St. 17
When you think of Florida and Ohio State playing in a January bowl game you don’t think of two 6-6 teams. But, that’s what we have here. Despite the identical records I think that Florida is clearly the better team.
Ohio State’s offense averaged just 5.2 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and the attack only got slightly better when running quarterback Braxton Miller was inserted as the starter in week 7 after splitting time with Joe Bauserman the first half of the season. Miller is well below average in the passing game (4.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback) but he makes up for it with his great running ability (868 yards on 111 runs) and the Buckeyes are 0.8 yards per rushing play better than average with Miller in the game. Overall, Ohio State is just average offensively with Miller at quarterback and the Buckeyes are likely to struggle against a very good Florida defense that yielded just 4.5 yards per play this season and rates at 1.3 yppl better than average. The Gators are tough to run the ball against (3.9 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average defense) and Miller isn’t likely to have success throwing against a good secondary that was 1.3 yards per pass play better than average (5.3 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.6 yppp). Ohio State faced 3 very good defensive teams this season and the Buckeyes averaged just 12.7 points on 234 yards at 4.0 yards per play against Michigan State, Illinois, and Penn State, who would combine to allow 4.4 yppl to an average team – so the Buckeyes were 0.4 yppl worse than average against very good defensive teams (rather than average, as they are overall). Miller averaged a pathetic 2.0 yppp in those 3 games and his running, while still good (182 yards on 28 runs for 6.5 yprp) was much less than this overall average of 7.8 yprp). Miller is coming off his only good passing game of the season (he averaged 7.6 yppp against Michigan), but there is no evidence to suggest that good performance will carry over. In fact, Miller’s yppp average has been going up and down game by game since he became the full time quarterback (-1.0 yppp to 5.6 yppp to 0.8 yppp to 4.9 yppp to 3.3 yppp to 7.6 yppp). I’ll just assume that game was an aberration and he’ll play at his overall level in this game, which will not be good enough to do much damage against the Gators. My math model projects just 273 yards at 4.3 yppl for Ohio State in this game.
Florida’s offense was only 0.3 yppl better than average for the season (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but the Gators are much better than that with John Brantley at quarterback. Brantley missed part of the Alabama game and all of the Gators’ games against LSU and Auburn and the offense managed just 17 points total in 10 quarters. Backup quarterbacks Driskel and Brissett combined to average just 3.2 yards on 81 pass plays, which is horrible even after factoring in the good defenses they had to face (those teams would allow 5.6 yppp, weighted by how many passes were thrown against each team). Brantley, however, had very good passing numbers (7.1 yppp against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback) and Florida also has a good rushing attack (5.1 yprp against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp). I rate Florida’s attack at 0.8 yppl better than average with Brantley at quarterback assuming that the absence of offensive coordinator Charlie Weis (he took the head coaching job at Kansas) won’t have a negative affect on the offense. Ohio State had a solid defense that yielded 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense, but the Buckeyes’ stop unit is not as good as the Florida offense with Brantley and my math model projects 343 yards at 5.8 yppl for Florida in this game.
Overall the math favors the Gators by 8 points with a total of 43 ½ points and the reason Florida is underrated is because they don’t look as good when you use a points model without adjustments, which would result in a prediction of Florida by 1 point. However, Florida was -13 in turnover margin in 11 games against Division 1A opponents and most of that is just variance as my model gives Ohio State only a 0.34 edge in turnovers in this game. Not only do all the adjustments (Miller at quarterback for OSU and Brantley at QB for Florida) favor Florida by 1.6 points but the turnover variance is worth 3.7 points. My adjusted points model favors Florida by 6.2 points, which is not quite as much as the 8 points that the projected statistics favors the Gators by. I’ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -3 or less (a lean at more than -3) and I have no opinion on the total.
Strong Opinion
Michigan St. 19 at GEORGIA 22 UNDER 49.5
The side on this game is not that easy to pick, as my math likes Michigan State and the situation favors Georgia. However, the under looks like a good play. Michigan State is is only 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively with starting quarterback Kirk Cousins in the game, as his very good passing numbers (7.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average team) are dragged down by a sub-par rushing attack that has averaged just 4.5 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team. Georgia’s defense, meanwhile, allowed just 4.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team and the Bulldogs were even better in the final 6 games when starting LB Alec Ogletree returned from an injury he suffered in the opening game. Georgia’s defense was 1.4 yards per play better than average in the 6 games with their current lineup (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team) after excluding the garbage yardage that New Mexico State picked up late against the Bulldogs’ backups (154 yards on 16 plays, but just 248 yards on 51 plays against the starters). The 42 points they gave up to LSU in the SEC Championship game was very misleading considering that LSU only gained 238 yards at 5.1 yppl, which is 1.5 yppl less than LSU would average against an average defensive team. My math model projects just 276 yards at 4.5 yppl for Michigan State in this game.
Georgia will also have trouble moving the ball, a the Bulldogs’ offense is also just 0.4 yppl better than average (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) while Michigan State’s defense rates at 1.6 yppl better than average. The Spartans yielded just 4.4 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl and the defensive numbers are better if you take out the 7.1 yppl that Wisconsin gained in their regular season meeting when the Spartans were without star DT William Gholston, who was suspended for that game. Rather than take out all the stats from that game, I decided to just take out the rushing stats since stopping the run is where Gholston really shines and the 6.1 yards per rushing play that Wisconsin got in that game was certainly an outlier that probably had everything to do with Gholston not playing (they only allowed 4.7 yprp to Wisconsin in the second meeting with Gholston playing). My math model projects just 299 total yards at 4.3 yppl for Georgia in this game, which isn’t likely to generate a lot of points.
My math model gives Georgia an edge in total yards while Michigan State has an edge in yards per play (Georgia is expected to run more plays), projected turnovers and special teams. Overall the math favors Michigan State by 3 ½ points with a total of 40 points. My adjusted points model favors Michigan State by 2 points with a total of 45 ½ points and I just don’t see how these teams are going to combine for 50 points. The reason that the points model predicted total points is higher than the 40 points predicted based on the projected stats is because Georgia had 8 non-offensive touchdowns scored against them this season, which is unusually high. You’d get 43 points if you take out 4 of the 8 non-offensive touchdowns that Georgia had scored against them and the total is too high even you don’t adjust for the variance of so many non-offense touchdowns. I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 48 points or higher (a lean Under at less than 48 points).
As far as the side is concerned I’m going to pass. My math favors Michigan State by 3 ½ points (2 on the points model) but the Spartans apply to a very negative 29-74 ATS bowl situation that has worked well against this year so far. I have no opinion on the side at a line of 3 points but I’d lean with Michigan State at +3 ½ or more.
Opinion
Wisconsin (+5) 36 OREGON 39
This should be a very entertaining game, as both teams should be able to have success moving the ball and scoring points. Wisconsin’s power rushing attack (248 yards at 6.0 yards per rushing play) combined with the efficient passing of Russell Wilson (8.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback) makes the mistake free Badgers (just 0.6 offensive turnovers per game) very tough to stop. Oregon’s defense is certainly very good, as the Ducks have yielded just 5.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team and that unit did a good job of defending similarly well balanced and potent Stanford attack (allowed 5.3 yppl to a Stanford offense that would average 6.7 yppl at home against an average team). Oregon actually faced 5 very good offensive teams this season (LSU, Arizona, Washington, Stanford and USC) and the Ducks were 1.4 yppl better than average defensive against those teams (only USC had a good game against them), so they played relatively better against better offensive teams. My math model projects 462 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Badgers in this game.
Oregon has an even better offense than Wisconsin does, as the Ducks averaged over 500 total yards per game at 6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Wisconsin is not great defensively, as they allowed 5.0 yppl while the first team defense rates at 0.4 yppl better than average. Oregon can beat you by running the ball with their 3 explosive running backs (they averaged 6.7 yards per rushing play) and quarterback Darron Thomas is an efficient passer (he averaged 7.2 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average QB). My math model 458 yards at 6.6 yppl for the Ducks in this game.
The total yards are about even with Oregon expected to average more yards per play and Wisconsin expected to run more plays, but the Ducks have far superior special teams and my math model favors Oregon by 4 ½ points. However, that model is based on the projected statistics and doesn’t take into account the fact that Wisconsin is more efficient with their yards than most teams because they don’t often get kept out of the endzone when they are in the red zone. Wisconsin scores a touchdown on an incredible 87% of their trips inside the opponents’ 20 yard line and they out-played their statistics because of it. Wisconsin also proved that they can score points against good defensive teams, as the Badgers averaged 35 points in 5 games against Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, and Penn State. Oregon also was able to score 34 points or more in every game except in their opening loss to LSU, whose defense is #2 in the nation and far better than Wisconsin’s defense. My adjusted points model only favors Oregon by 2 ½ points and I think that model is more accurate in this case. That projected statistics call for 69 ½ total points but the points model predicts 74 points, which I also think is more accurate since both teams average at least 5 more total points per game than the stats would predict. I’ll lean with Wisconsin at +4 or more and I’ll lean over 72 points or less.
Charlie Scott
Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Play: Wisconsin
Oregon has already lost to Teams with similiar athletic ability, skill, & size this Season (LSU & USC.) Take advantage of this being the first time Wisconsin has been an underdog all season, Last Year Wisky was 3-0 ATS as a Dog. Oregon's defense can be pushed around, and I expect Wisconsin's big OL to do so. Also keep in mind in Last Years BCS Championship game vs Auburn the long layoff seemed to make Oregon play sluggish. Take the Points & PLAY WISCONSIN !
Stanford vs. Oklahoma St
Play: Under
Both teams are off a long layoff and have a high Total. In order for Over's to cash with Totals this high everything must go right to go Over. I'll be a contrarian and bet everything doesn't break right. Stanford's offense plays 2 TE's and likes to control the ball & clock by throwing short-intermediate passes and moving the first down chains. While OKST plays a bend but don't break defense. While these teams settle for Field goals, we cash on the Under. Wait until almost game time to bet as I feel this Total will go higher. PLAY UNDER !
Freddy Wills
Florida vs. Ohio State
Play: Under 45
This game is been put on ESPN2, yuck for the two teams that have a national fan base. Oh well the game will be just as ugly both offenses are ranked over 100th in 120 and both defenses have been the only bright spots that they are 6-6 and in a bowl game. The difference in the overall game will likely come in turnover margin where Ohio State is 32nd and Florida is 113th, but Florida is just a bit better offensively and defensively where they can over come that. However, in the end I believe this game goes under the total.
Jack Jones
South Carolina -2.5
The South Carolina Gamecocks are showing solid value Monday as only a 2.5-point favorite over the Nebraska Cornhuskers. South Carolina has battled adversity all year to put together a very impressive regular season.
Steve Spurrier's teams have never posted a losing record since he became coach at South Carolina in 2005, and he has taken the program to new heights in his seventh year. The Gamecocks (10-2) have matched the 1984 team for the most wins in the 118-year history of the program, finished SEC play with a school-best 6-2 record and defeated all five of their East Division rivals. They are certainly motivated to break the 1984 team's mark.
Sophomore quarterback Connor Shaw played awesome down the stretch, completing 30 of 38 passes over his last two games. He went 14 for 20 with three touchdown passes, 107 rushing yards and a TD run in a 34-13 win over archrival Clemson to conclude the regular season.
What will allow the Gamecocks to win this game is a stop unit that ranks 4th in the country in total defense (268.9 yards/game). They only gave up an average of 3.7 yards/carry in the run-heavy SEC, and this stop unit will be able to slow down Nebraska's rushing attack, which is the strength of their team. Bet South Carolina Monday.
WUNDERDOG
Old Dominion at James Madison
Pick: Old Dominion -2
The James Madison Dukes come into the New Year with a record of 7-4, taking on the 6-7 Old Dominion Monarchs. It might look odd to see a 7-4 club as a home dog vs. a team with a losing record, but the answer lies in scheduling. While Old Dominion was battling the likes of Missouri State, Florida, Kentucky, Fairfied, Richmond and Central Florida, the Dukes were posting their seven wins vs. teams with a combined record of 29-62. There isn't a team with a winning record on the entire schedule of wins. Old Dominion may be 6-7, but the schedule says this is a winning team, so I'll back Old Dominion in this one as James Madison is now 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 at home.