Lenny Del Genio
Texas A&M at Baylor
Play: Texas A&M
Not only is Baylor off to the best start in school history, but they are one of four remaining unbeatens in College Basketball. They are not going to stay unbeaten forever, and you have to think that a Texas A&M team that has failed to play up to expectations to this point will relish the opportunity at knocking an unbeaten conference rival off. This is a generous helping of points considering that Baylor's two previous wins have come by a total of four points, both in a neutral setting. In a 54-52 win over Mississippi State last Wednesday, the Bears shot a season low 34.7 percent from the floor. Here they face an Aggies D that is 3rd best in the nation in holding opponents to 35.7% shooting. Of Baylor's first 10 victories, only three came against lined opponents. They were a dog in two of those and covered by half a point in the other. Way too many points in this Big 12 clash. Take Texas A&M.
Teddy Covers
Milwaukee @ Denver
PICK: Over 198.5
There’s a lot of debate in the handicapping community about what the pace is going to be like as teams are forced to play three games in three nights for the first time since the 90’s. Some bettors expect lots of jump shots falling short due to tired legs, leading to lower scoring games. Other bettors expect slow reactions on defense, leading to a high shooting percentage, lots of fouls and plenty of easy buckets in transition – in other words, higher scoring games.
Any winning poker player will tell you that the right answer to just about any poker question is ‘it depends on the situation.” In my opinion, that’s very much the case for these ‘three games in three nights’ situations, like the one Denver finds themselves in this evening against the Bucks. Denver is a very deep and athletic team. They are coming off a pair of Unders against the Lakers, but every team that has faced LA this year has cashed an Under ticket – Mike Brown’s squad is 6-0 to the Under thusfar. And it’s surely worth noting that last night’s Under had everything to do with miserable three point shooting (a woeful 6-41 between the two teams), and not much to do with pace.
But with all their depth and talent, Denver is not going to be an Under team on a consistent basis, unless they play against a squad that looks to slow it down at every opportunity. In recent years under Scott Skiles, the Bucks have been that type of a squad, with a pace that has ranked among the slowest in all of basketball. That hasn’t been the case in 2012. The Bucks have gotten their offense untracked, scoring 95+ in all three of their games. But Milwaukee’s defense has taken a step back, leaving the door open for Denver to run and gun, as they love to do. In a series that has seen a 7-2 run to the Over in the last nine meetings, expect a relatively high scoring ballgame tonight. Take the Over.
Black Widow
1* Dallas Mavericks +2.5
The Dallas Mavericks are finally starting to show good enough value to pull the trigger on them Monday. The defending champion Mavs should not be an underdog at home to the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. Dallas has started the year playing a little unmotivated after winning the title, but they have every reason to be motivated tonight. Dallas lost on the road to Oklahoma City 104-102 on 12/29 thanks to a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer by Kevin Durant. Dallas wants payback, and I believe they get it at home here. The Mavs are 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Dallas is 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 games overall. The Mavs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. Oklahoma City is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Take Dallas and the points.
Red Dog Sports
Virginia at LSU
Play: Virginia -3
Look for Virginia to win by more than 3 tonight at LSU as the Cavaliers are a strong defensive team and getting inside scoring from Mike Scott and outside shooting from Sammy Zeglinski. Two former Pac 10 coaches face each other tonight. VA won 64-50 last year at home.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Drexel/ Georgia State over 119: Drexel's offense hasn't been great for much of the year as they have averaged just 63.7 ppg overall, but they have turned it on at that end of the floor of late as they have put up 70.4 ppg in their last 5 games. Their Shooting has also gotten much better of late as they are shooting 42.7% for the year, but 49.6% in the last 5 games. Georgia State comes in having put up 72.7 ppg on 44.6 % shooting overall, while at home they have averaged 74.7 ppg on 45.8% shooting. Drexel likes a medium pace an will run from time to time, while Georgia State likes the uptempo as they have averaged 58.7 shots per game in their last 6 games. Both teams come in having played great defense this year As Drexel has allowed 57.6 ppg on 41.6 % shooting, while Georgia State has allowed just 58.9 ppg on 38.9 % shooting, but with both offenses playing so well right now I don't see the defenses being as stout. Lets expect this one around 130. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over - All teams where the total is 119.5 or less (DREXEL) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, and they have won 60-80% or more of their games on the season.
4 UNIT PLAY
Cal Poly-SLO -2 over UCSB: Off to their best start since entering the Division I ranks, the Cal Poly Mustangs look to continue their success as they open up Big West Conference play tonight. Cal Poly is 9-4 on the year and they may have beat 2 non-division 1 teams in their last 4 games, but they are also lost by just 5 at a good depaul team and they beat Fresno State on the road, by 19 points in those last 4 games. This is a team that is playing with a lot of confidence right now and they are also a team that has played some of the best defense in the nation in the early going. The Mustangs come in ranked 7th in points allowed 55.2 ppg and 87th in defensive FG% (40.3%), while at home they have allowed just 55.5 ppg on 42.9% shooting. Thei offense has been average overall as they have put up just 63.4 ppg overall, but at home they have averaged 71 ppg and they will be facing a bad UCSB defense tonight. The Gauchos come in allowing 71.1 ppg on 42% shooting, including 35.7% from long range, while on the road they have allowed 76.8 ppg on 45.9% shooting. Ill go with Mustangs are at home with momentum (won 4 of last 5) and with the far superior defense, vs a UCSB team that is playing it's 5 game in a row on the road and that has lost their last 3. Cal Poly will pull away late.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Delaware/ NC Wilmington Over 133: Gonna start off with a good trend here. NC Wilmington games with an OU line id 130-139.5 have gone 7-0 to then Over this year, with an average points scored being 142.9 ppg. Wilmington home games have averaged 133.7 ppg with all but 1 of their 4 home games hitting at least 133 points, and that one game that failed, put up 132 points. The Seahawks have been in some higher scoring games of late as their last 5 games have put up 145.2 ppg. The Seahawks are average on offense as they have put up just 66.9 ppg overall and 67.5 ppg at home. Their defense, though, has been a big reason why they are 4-7 on the year as they have allowed 71 ppg overall and 73.6 ppg in their last 5. They have allowed just 66 ppg at home, but Delaware has been able to put up 69 or more points in 3 of their last 5 road games. The Blue hens on defense has allowed 67.5 ppg overall and 68.2 ppg on the road and that mediocre defense should have problems with a Seahawk squad that is coming around on offense (71.6 ppg in their last 5). I expect this game to hit at least 138 points. KEY TREND--- DELAWARE is 20-5 OVER ) in road games after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals since 1997.
Southeast Missouri State -4 over Jacksonville State: 3rd game in a row for Jax State and te first 2 were not good at all as they lost to a bad SIUED team and were beat by 23 at Colorado State. Now they get to face a SEMO team that may be turning the corner a bit as they have won their last 2 in a row. Jacksonville State has one of the least experienced squads in the nation with the 2011-2012 Gamecocks having only one player with more than one season of playing time. The Cougars have really been sorry on offense as they have put up just 62.7 ppg on 40% shooting and vs division 1 teams it's even worse as they have averaged 58.8 ppg on a mere 37.6% shooting overall and 23.4% from long range. SEMO has really struggled on defense, but they may come in with some confidence after holding Morgan State to just 51 points on 40.4% shooting in their last game. The Redhawks offense has been okay this year as they have averaged 70.1 ppg on 48% shooting (37th) on the year. The Redhawks clearly have the offensive edge and they are playing at home, so I will look for them to win this one rather easily.
Virginia -3 over LSU: This Cavs team is setting themselves up for a special year as they come in with a 12-1 record and playing one of the best team defense in the nation. Virginia is 2nd in the nation in points allowed (50.3 ppg), 18th in defensive FG% (37.8%) and 7th in 3pt defense (26.7%). Now that is one tough defense and I don't expect an LSU offense that is 162nd in points scored (69.1 ppg) and 281st in FG% (40.5%) to crack it for many points tonight. LSU has also played great defense and they as they are in the top 50 of the 3 major defensive categories, but Virginia is a team that shoots very well at 47.3% (50th), while averaging a solid 67.4 ppg. The Cavs were nearly upset by Townson State in their last game and one has to believe that that will provide a wakeup call for them here. They are the better team in this one, with the much better defense, a slightly better offense and they it should translate into a big road win form them here. KEY TREND--- VIRGINIA is 16-4 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
2 UNIT PLAY
Long Beach State -13 over UC IRVINE: (Added) What a brutal early season schedule the 49ers have played, but that will only serve them better for their run through the Big West. LBS is just 7-6 vs that schedule, but considering that the beat Auburn by 21 and Xavier by 10, plus they lost by just 6 at N. Carolina and by just 8 at Kansas and you can see how good this team really is. UC Irvine has played a much less daunting schedule yet they are still just 4-9 on teh year. 2 of the Anteaters 4 wins have come vs Non-Division 1 teams and they also have a loss vs Alaska Anchorage on their resume. This is not a good team. The 49ers are the pick to win the Big West and after a tough non-conference slate I will look for them to start off with an easy win in their Big West opener.
1 UNIT PLAY
Boston College/ Rhode Island Under 136: The Rhode Island Rams have been horrible on defense this yaer, allowing 76.6 ppg overall and 85.5 ppg on the road, but BC's offense is still a slow walk-the-ball-up-the-court kinda team so I don't expect them to put up a ton here. BC is averaging just 61 ppg on 40.4% shooting, while at home they have averaged just 62.2 ppg. The Rams have put up65 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games and they have averaged just 64.6 ppg over that stretch. This game should finish around 130.