Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 3, 2011

Scott Spreitzer

Georgetown at St. John's
Play on: St. John's

St. John's looks to be the real deal in coach Steve Lavin's first year as it went to West Virginia and shot 61 percent in a 81-71 win and then traveled to Providence for a 67-65 win while shooting 53 percent from the field. The Red Storm stumbled earlier in the season with back-to-back losses to St. Bonaventure and Fordham but since have won four in a row. Guard Dwight Hardy is the leading scorer with 16.3 points per game while shooting 91 percent from the foul line. Four others are hitting at well over 50 percent from the field, including forward Justin Brownlee (.571) and Justin Burrell (.604). The Storm outscored Providence in the paint 48-32 and outrebounded West Virginia 33-24. Georgetown is 12-2 but were exposed in road losses at Temple and Notre Dame. The Hoyas are led by their three guards - Austin Freeman (19.2 ppg), Jason Clark (13.8) and Chris Wright (13.1), however, if you can shut down their outside shooting the Hoyas can be beaten. Georgetown was 4-for-22 from 3-point range in the Notre Dame loss and 5-for-16 against Temple. St. John's has coverd its last five Big East games and actually has won two of the last three meetings. Georgetown has been overpriced more often than not, covering just 16 of their last 44 Big East games. I'm taking the points with St. John's on Monday night.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Virginia Tech at Stanford

Virginia Tech has gone Over in 10 of its last 11 games vs. teams averaging 37 or more points per game while Stanford has gone Over six straight times when playing a team with a winning record. The Hokies come in averaging 35.5 PPG while the Cardinal is even better at 40.3.

Play on: Over

Frank Jordan

Virginia Tech vs. Stanford
Play: Under 58.0

Stanford averages 40 points per game Virginia Tech averages 35 points per game. These two teams are power houses on offenses and their defense isn't overly know nation wide as their offenses. Look for this game to be played in the 30's if not 40's.

LARRY NESS

Miami @ Charlotte
PICK: Over 189

We are all well aware of the storyline with the Heat since "The Decision" last summer. Miami's loss at Dallas on Nov 27 dropped the Heat to 9-8 on the season and rumors had head coach Erik Spoelstra not making it to the New Year. However, the Heat have gone 17-1 since. Wade (24.5-6.5-4.3), LBJ (24.4-6.7-7.3) and Bosh (18.6-8.2) are all "doing their things" but let's give some credit to the supporting cast, as three players can't guard FIVE opponents. The Heat rank 3rd in points allowed (92.3), 1st in defensive FG percentage (42.5) and 2nd in three-point percentage (31.8). That being said, I'm going over in this game. The Heat have topped 100 points in 10 of their last 18 games, averaging 103.1 PPG (115.0 PPG over their last three!). The team takes a 10-game road winning streak into Charlotte tonight, averaging 105.1 points on 50.7 shooting. The Bobcats are now led by Paul Silas, who has vowed to "open things up more" in Charlotte (post-Larry Brown). The team has averaged 100.3 PPG in the three games since he's taken over and while it's a "small sample size," it is almost eight PPG higher than its seasonal average. The Bobcats are not deep but in Jackson (18.3-4.4-4.2) and Wallace (16.5-8.2), own two excellent offensive players. Throw in PG Augustin (113.5-5.9 APG), the versatile Diaw (11.8-5.4-3.6) and the 6-10 Thomas (11.4-5.4) and Silas has a nucleus to work with. Now here's the 'fly in the ointment.’ Wallace is expected to miss this game after aggravating a bone bruise on his left ankle when he crashed to the floor in practice on Sunday. The expected loss of Wallace has caused the total to drop (who can replace his scoring?) but let me also note that Wallace is a terrific defender and with him out, just who will the Bobcats use to slow down LeBron? I was going to make this a strong play on the over but with Wallace expected to miss, I have to back off some, but NOT entirely. I still think it's likely the Heat could continue their recent high-scoring ways and 'drag' this total over. Let's make a small play on the over.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Islanders @ Flames
PICK: Under 5.5

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":

The Isles have seen the total go "under" the number in 17 of 34 to start the year, with two "pushes", including in 9 of 18 on the road; on the 31st they beat Detroit on the road 4-3 in OT.

After an extended period of losing, New York has won six of its last eight overall.

Significant to note that the Isles have seen the total go "under" the number in three of four this year when playing with two-days of rest.

On the other side of the ice are the Calgary Flames who have seen the total go "under" the number in 21 of 37, with two "pushes"; on New Years day they won on the road in Edmonton 2-1.

The Flames are hot right now, having won their last four games, including tough ones at Dallas, vs. Buffalo and Colorado.

Calgary has seen the total go "under" the number in five of nine non-conference games.

Bottom line: Both teams are playing extremely well right now.

New York has won two if its last three visits to Calgary, and will be backstopped by Rick DiPietro who has won his last two starts, in stopping 67 of 70 shots; he's 2-0 with a 2.88 GAA vs. the Flames.

Expect a hard hitting, closely checked, tight affair; consider a second look at the "under" in this situation.

JIM FEIST

MIAMI HEAT / CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
TAKE: MIAMI HEAT

The Miami Heat definitely look like the team to beat in the NBA right now. After a lackluster start to the season the Heat seem to have finally jelled their superstars and are looking like a fine tuned watch. The Heat have won five straight games and 17 of their last 18. Miami has been hit and miss for the bettors, mainly because you have to fade such big chalk lines right now with the Heat. Still, Miami is 12-5 ATS their last 17 games, though just 4-5 their last nine. The Heat bring a 10-game road winning streak into tonight's contest. Miami is averaging 105 ppg and shooting just over 50% from the field during their road winning streak. Charlotte saw its modest two-game winning streak snapped last time out with a loss at home to Golden State, 95-96. The loss was the first for interim coach Paul Silas. Larry Brown was fired back on Dec 22nd. The Bobcats have covered just one of their last five games and three of their last 10. Pretty difficult to go against a team playing at the caliber of the Heat. The Bobcats are a bottom dweller of the league and will likely melt under the attack of this Miami squad. Take the Heat and don't be afraid to lay the points on the road.

EZWINNERS

Utah Jazz -11.5

The Utah Jazz have not lost to the Detroit Pistons since they drafted Deron Williams in the first round in 2005 having won 10 straight meetings. The Jazz are also a league best 11-1 against teams from the East. The Pistons are only 4-11 versus the West this season and this team has a lot of issues. Detroit's offense is really struggling as they are shooting the ball poorly from the field and their are rumblings in the locker room with the latest being about a lack of adjustments from the coaching staff. Utah has been taking care of business against weak teams as they are 7-1-1 against the spread in their last nine games against a team with a winning percentage below .400 and I expect that to continue in this game. Lay the points.

James Patrick Sports

VCU vs. Georgia State

HC Rod Barnes' Georgia State team isn't too far from turning the corner in Atlanta, with juco frontline additions Buckner & McGee (began career at Indiana) giving the Panthers some real force on the blocks for the first time in memory. And now, G Dante Curry is providing some spark off bench, as evidenced when he canned six triples in last week's rout of Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at GSU Sports Arena. VCU might find it harder to extend margins on the CAA trail this winter without the defensive presence that graduated C Larry Sanders (now with NBA Bucks) provided the past few years. Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection in Monday College Basketball is Georgia Southern Eagles.

Red Dog Sports

ODU at Towson
Pick: ODU -12

The Monarchs were blown out at Missouri and should get back on track at Towson. ODU has beaten the Tigers at Towson by 16, 12 and 14 in the last three visits. ODU plays much better defense and should win by 15 to 20 points on Monday night. ODU is already 0-1 on the road in the CAA after a bad loss at Delaware. Look for Ben Finney and Frank Hassell to play well.

Tom Freese

Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Hornets
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers

New Orleans is 20-14 straight up this year. The Hornets are 5-12-1 ATS when playing with one day of rest and they are 3-8 ATS off a straight up win. The Hornets are 3-10 ATS their last 13 games vs. NBA Atlantic teams and they are 1-4-1 ATS their last six Monday games. Philadelphia is 13-20 straight up this year. The Sixers are 8-0 ATS off a straight up loss and they 19-7-1 ATS their last 27 games overall. The Sixers are 5-0 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS their last 10 road games.

SPORTS WAGERS

Stanford –3½ +1.04 over Virginia Tech

You’re going to read about the speed of the Hokies and its very decent secondary and how this one is likely going to come down to the wire but we’re not buying that for a second. For one, the Cardinal play in the “speed” conference, that being the Pac-10 so it’s not like they’ll be in unchartered waters. The Cardinal played a lot of fast-paced teams and they not only beat all of them with the exception of Oregon but they ripped most of them to shreds. The Cardinal destroyed Washington 41-0 and they did the same to Arizona, 42-17. They ripped apart Oklahoma St., 38-0 and Notre Dame 38-17. We’re not talking about some pedestrian offenses that the Cardinal stopped either. Stanford’s only loss of the year came against Oregon while the Hokies lost to Boise State and James Madison. So yeah, Va Tech reeled off 11 in a row to close out the season but as it turns out, they really didn’t beat anyone. Both Florida St and Miami are not that strong and no one can really argue that the ACC was the weakest “big conference” in the land. The Hokies had at least seven soft opponents that included the aforementioned two they lost to and then there was Duke, East Carolina, Wake Forest, Virginia and Central Michigan. Very big deal that Virginia Tech won all those games. The fact of the matter is that the Hokies have not come close to facing an offense like the one they’ll see here or a defense. Cardinal QB Andrew Luck is as good as they come and he comes in with a great running game to go along with his outstanding passing game. The Hokies looked good against a lot of bad teams but they’ll be exposed here as just another very average ACC team. Play: Stanford –3½ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).

Jimmy Moore

Boston @ Toronto
Pick: Boston

The Bruins are not happy about their 7-6 OT loss last game out to Buffalo. That will have them very focused in this game which will be very bad news for the Leafs who will be on a downer off of a big road win in Ottawa on Saturday night.

SPORTS WAGERS

SAN JOSE -½ +1.29 over Vancouver

One could argue that spotting the Canucks a half puck is not too wise when you consider that they haven’t lost in regulation since Dec 5, 12 games ago. That’s a serious run but these are not machines we’re talking about. The situation calls for a play on the Sharkies. You see, Vancouver played in Colorado last night and they played in Dallas on Saturday. This will be its third road game in four days and it will also be its fifth game in eight days. Going from Dallas to Colorado to San Jose in the span of four days is tough when you’re not playing hockey. The Canucks also have nothing but trouble in this building and in fact, have gone 0-5-1 in their last six trips here. San Jose has not dominated the regular season like season’s past but they’re still fourth in the West with a 21-13-5 record. The Sharkies are still one of the elite teams in the league and they’re in a very favorable situation here. Play: San Jose -½ +1.29 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Islanders +1.82 over Calgary

We have no idea how this game is going to turn out but what we do know is that the Islanders offer up great value again and these Flames don’t deserve to be a 2-1 favorite over anyone. The Islanders have won five of their last six and it’s not like they beat a bunch of dregs. No sir, they among the clubs they beat were Tampa Bay, Montreal, Pittsburgh and Detroit. Surely, they’re not taking a step up in class here. Meanwhile, the Flames are warm too with four wins in a row, however, they played in Edmonton on Saturday night and they have Vancouver on deck, thus, this game is sandwiched between its two biggest rivals. The Flames are a team that can get caught flat-footed, as we’ve seen already a bunch of times this year and this is a team they’re very likely not going to get too jacked up about facing. The Islanders, even when they were losing, come to play every night and that hard work is paying off. Once again we put our faith in value and regardless of the outcome, there is plenty of that here. Of course the Islanders can win. Play: N.Y. Islanders +1.82 (Risking 2 units).

Bryan Leonard

Michigan State vs. Northwestern
Play: Michigan State -2

The Spartans have struggled against zone defenses, but after once again having early trouble last time out against Minnesota the Spartans had no problem scoring in the second half. Now they once again play a team that uses the zone the vast majority of the time, so playing Minnesota right before this game was actually a benefit. Michigan State has owned this series in the Tom Izzo era winning 24 of the 27 meetings. With Michigan State getting off to their traditional slow start to the season we are seeing a great deal of line value in this matchup.

We really like this Northwestern team but this simply isn't a good matchup for them. The Wildcats have dropped two straight after racking up wins over lesser competition in the pre-conference schedule. But after dropping the Big 10 opener against Purdue things don't get any easier for Northwestern here. They have a veteran crew but the Spartans own the superior talent and coach Izzo knows that these are the type of games his teams traditionally win.