Sam Martin
Georgetown at St. Johns
Prediction: Georgetown
We faded the Hoyas a few days ago when they were a small road favorite at Notre Dame, but we'll back them here tonight in a similar spot on the road against St. John's. One of the main reasons we picked the Irish to win that game was because of their dominant home play coupled with Notre Dame's ability to rebound. We don't see those attributes in St. John's, and we think Georgetown not only will win the rebounding battle here, but can dominate the paint on both ends of the court. Hoyas win this game going away!
Rob Vinciletti
Tennessee Martin vs. SE Missouri State
Play: Tennessee Martin +4
T. Martin has covered 13 of 17 as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 and gave In state rival Tennessee a huge game last out losing by 6 points as a 29 point dog. This is a much easier spot tonight against a SE. Missouri St team that has one home win over a school named Hannibal- Lagrange. They are a mediocre 4-12 ats as a home favorite from 3.5 to 6 and 3-17 including 0-5 this season after scoring 60 or less points. They have also lost 5 of 7 times vs losing teams. Look for Tennessee Martin to get the cover tonight.
David Chan
Blackhawks @ Kings
PICK: Under 5.5
The Kings are off a 1-0 loss in their last game. The "under" is 5-1 when LA had scored one goal or less in its last game. The "under" is 15-8 the last 23 times that Kings had suffered three straight setbacks; 2-1 this season.
The Hawks lost 2-1 last night. The "under" is 5-2 when Chicago has played back to back games this season. The "under" is also 2-0 when the champs had suffered three straight defeats; 8-4 their last 12 in that spot.
LA home games have averaged only 4.8 goals per game this season. The "under" is 13-4-1 here.
All three meetings this season have fallen below the total. They had scores of 3-2, 2-1 and 3-1. In fact, the "under" is 8-0 the last eight in this series.
Only one way to play this total. Go Under.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +10
Butler hasn't won by double-digits at Wisconsin-Milwaukee since 2000. In fact, Butler has not been a good investment when laying big points. Under coach Stevens, the Bulldogs are just 16-28 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points. It is also worth noting that Butler is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.
The Panthers are an impressive 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. They are also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.
The Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. They are 1-1 in the 2 games played at Wis-Mil during this span. Last year's national runner-up team only took the Panthers by 7 points on the road. Take the Panthers and the points tonight.
Bob Wingerter
Golden State Warriors vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic -10½
Just over two weeks since revamping their roster with a pair of blockbuster deals, the streaking Orlando Magic will resume a four-game homestand in search of their sixth straight win when they welcome the Golden State Warriors to central Florida.
The new-look Magic won the opener of the residency on Thursday when Dwight Howard posted 24 points and 18 rebounds to lead Orlando to a 112-103 victory over the slumping New York Knicks.
Howard grabbed nine offensive rebounds for the Magic, who have won five straight after losing their first two games after deals that brought Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu to the club on Dec. 18. Orlando received a combined 36 points from that trio in its fourth straight victory over New York.
The Magic, who are 12-5 at Amway Center, will finish their residency with games against Milwaukee and Houston. The Warriors, who are just 5-14 as the visitor on the year, will finish their trek in New Orleans on Wednesday. Orlando has swept the home-and-home season series with Golden State in each of the past two seasons and has won six of seven overall versus the Warriors.
John Ryan
Hofstra vs. Drexel
Play: Drexel -11
5* graded play on Drexel as they take on Hofstra set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The Technicals and Simulator Projections My proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Drexel will win this game by 13 or more points. Drexel (9-2, 4-0 home) has been money in the bank when favored between 6.5 to 12 points and this is bad news for Hofstra (7-5, 3-1 away). The Dragons have posted an 8-0 ATS record spanning the past three seasons when favored between 6 1/2 to 12 points. Drexel is coming off an easy 84-39 victory over Niagra and easily covered the 16 1/2 point spread. Drexel is a solid 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 50 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Matchups Drexel has returned four starters from last year’s edition and head coach James Flint is doing a great job developing bench depth that will pay dividends in March. The chemistry is quite evident with nearly ever half court set having all five players touching the ball. Hofstra is led by Charles Jenkins, who ranks seventh in scoring averaging 23.5 points per game and is the nation’s leader in active players scoring 2,049 points for his career. He is hitting 60% from the floor and 50% from 3-point territory. He is a great shooting guard with good ‘pro’ size at 6-3 220 pounds and presents obvious matchup problems for most teams. Drexel has the personnel to contain him and once that is accomplished Hofstra lacks the depth for scoring support. Drexel is one of the most fundamentally sound rebounding teams in the country ranking 9th getting 42.1 boards per game. Philadelphia born Samme Givens is averaging 11.6 rebounds per game and has the size at 6-6 and 225 pounds and quickness to defend against any drives to then rim by Jenkins. Take Drexel.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on New Orleans Hornets -6.5
Tough spot for Philly with this being the last game of a grueling 8-game road trip. Good spot for New Orleans, meanwhile, returning home, where it is 13-4 this season, following back-to-back solid road wins. There's no way the Hornets will be feeling generous tonight, either. Not after the 18-point loss they were handed at Philly last month. To make matter worse for the 76ers, they will be without Andre Iguodala because of tendinitis in his Achilles' tendon. The Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Heat/Bobcats OVER 189
Miami's defense has given up a lot of points in the last 2 games, and I expect this trend to continue against a Charlotte team that has looked to increase the tempo under Silas. Keep in mind that Miami is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 games after allowing 100 points or more in consecutive games. We are seeing 201.6 total points scored on average in this situation. In addition, the OVER is 7-1 in Miami's last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. Bet the Over.
Black Widow
1* on Warriors/Magic OVER 211
Golden State loves to play an up-tempo style, and the Orlando Magic are starting to become more up-tempo themselves since making a trade to bring in the likes of Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu. Orlando averaged 96.6 points before the new acquisitions joined the lineup, and 107.0 on 49.5-percent shooting during the five-game winning streak. "I think we're playing at a faster pace," backup guard J.J. Redick said. "It's more energy and I think that was the thinking behind the trade was to give us new life." Golden State is going to have to go to a small line-up tonight and really emphasize pushing the tempo even more considering their top two big men in Andris Biedrins and David Lee are doubtful. Orlando is going to put up one of their biggest numbers of the season offensively against this soft Warriors defense, one that gives up 106.3 points/game on the road already and without Biedrins or Lee they won't be able to contend anything around the rim. The OVER is 5-1 in Orlando's last 6 games overall. The OVER is 55-26 in Warriors last 81 Monday games. Take the OVER 211 points here.
Info Plays
3* Minnesota Timberwolves +8
Reasons why Minnesota will cover:
1) Even though the Celtics won their first game without Garnett in the lineup, the Celtics are now missing both starters down low in Garnett and Kendrick Perkins, and simply don't deserve to be favored by 8 points. Minnesota is playing their best basketball of the season, and Boston simply doesn't have the talent to contain Kevin Love for 48 minutes.
2) The Timberwolves are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference, and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
3) The Celtics are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia 76ers +6.5
The Philadelphia 76ers have been the most profitable team at the pay window over the last month. This team continues going under the radar because they are just 13-20 on the season, but they have played much better than their record would indicate with several close losses this year. The 76ers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall and continue showing excellent value tonight in New Orleans against an overvalued Hornets squad.
New Orleans is only 9-13 in their last 22 games overall, also going 9-15-1 ATS in their last 26 games. This team has been reeling since a surprising 11-1 start, coming right back down to reality. What makes Philly such a solid play night in and night out is their depth, where the 76ers have 9 players scoring 7.0 PPG or more. Each game they can have a number of different players carry them, and their depth allows them to play hard for four quarters which you don't see in this league very often. Philly is a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss. Roll with the 76ers Monday.
JR O'Donnell
William & Mary -2
Tribe goes off tonight as the " Quinn McDowell" show will light up the Kaplan Arena & a Seahawks ball club that is a poor poor prop on the road. A true 1-5 on the road as the Seahawks are terrible Ats travelers. The Tribe checks in @ 4-8 and they have Vegas & Jr O respect tonight as a -2 favorite. We note that the the Tribes McDowell is one of the top free throw shooters in the nation. Smoking 85.5 percent and 3-point shooting 52.9 percent. He flat out leads the Tribe at 15.2 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Throw in Freshman guard Brandon Britt who is a upcomer & W&M ranks second in the CAA in defensive rebounding percentage 72.1 percent. Look for the Tribe to limit and hold the Seahawks down behind the 3 point arc, They live and die by the 3
Stephen Nover
Miami at CHARLOTTE (+9)
For your complimentary winner tonight, I like the Bobcats plus the points at home against Miami.
Yes, Miami is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games and has won 10 consecutive road contests. But the points are generous enough to back the Bobcats as the home underdog. This is marquee matchup for Charlotte and its new coach, Paul Silas. The Bobcats should be rested and primed having last played on Friday.
The Bobcats opened 9-19 under Larry Brown, an excellent coach but whose run in Charlotte peaked last season. The team had grown stale under Brown this season.
Silas has completely changed the Bobcats' philosophy making them an up-tempo team much to the pleasure of their two best players, Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace.
The Bobcats have a new energy under Silas going 2-1 since he took over. They're averaging 100.3 points in those games compared to 81.7 in the seven games prior to Silas taking over the reigns.
Jackson, a streaky scorer, is hot averaging 25.8 points in his last four games.
The Heat have lost six of the their last seven visits to Charlotte.
3♦ CHARLOTTE
Joel Tyson
Miami (-9) at CHARLOTTE
Monday freebie, and I will lay it with the Heat.
Miami stormed back from double-digits down at home against Golden State on Saturday in a non-cover, but that momentum will carry over tonight on the road against a Charlotte team that just cannot find their identity this year.
The Bobcats continue to struggle, and their 7-7-2 spread mark at home should tell you that they really hold no home court advantage this year.
Miami's latest winning streak is at 5 in a row, and they are a money-making 11-6 against the spread on the road this season.
The road team in the series is 5-2-1 against the spread, and I just don't see Charlotte doing anything that would lead me to believe they can stay inside of this impost, even at home.
Miami rolls on.
3♦ MIAMI
Derek Mancini
Miami (-8') at CHARLOTTE
I have a couple problems with Charlotte right now, but none bigger than the perception that they've somehow "gotten better" because of the coaching change. There was an intial "blip" with a two-game win streak when Silas took over, but we all saw the Warriors expose them Friday (my free pick). Bobcats get further exposed in an even tougher match up tonight.
Here's my biggest issue: If the sorry-ass Golden State Warriors defense can limit this Bobcats team to 95 points (on 42% shooting) the other day, then how in the hell is Charlotte going to get anything done against Miami (one of the best defensive teams in the NBA)? Even worse, factor in the likely absence of the Bobcats second leading scorer Gerald Wallace (ankle), and you've got a bad offense that just got worse.
On the other side, despite being a solid defensive team in the past, the switch from Brown to Silas has changed this team's philosophy a bit. I don't expect to see the discplined team defense we've seen in the past, which is bad news vs Wade/Lebron/Bosh. Diaw may be athletic enough to limit Lebron somewhat, but Stephen Jackson is a terrible defender, and will have issues with Wade. Also, with Wallace out, Bosh should fare well in this match up too.
All in all this is a very difficult match up for a Bobcats team going through a major coaching transition. Look for the Heat to take advantage, especially since they got a little sloppy versus Golden State (overcame 20-point deficit) Saturday, and should be razor sharp here. Miami over Golden State Monday.
3♦ MIAMI
Bobby Maxwell
Philadelphia (+6) at NEW ORLEANS
For my comp winner, it’s the final game of a huge eight-game road trip for the Sixers tonight in New Orleans and look for them to continue cashing tickets as underdogs in this one. Philadelphia has cashed in five of the first seven on this trip, including the last two game at Phoenix and at the Lakers.
Philadelphia is one of the best ATS teams in the NBA, cashing in 22 of their 33 games, including a 12-6-1 ATS mark on the road. The Sixers have a solid lineup in Jrue Holiday, Andres Nocioni, Elton Brand and even center Spencer Hawes is coming along nicely.
The Hornets are back home after a quick two game trip to Boston and Washington. They are on ATS slides of 5-12-1 after a day off, 3-10 against Atlantic division teams and 1-4-1 on Mondays.
The Sixers are on positive ATS streaks of 8-0 after a straight-up loss, 7-1-1 against Southwest Division teams, 8-2 on the road, 19-7-1 overall and 11-3 after a spread-cover. Grab the points tonight and go with the Sixers to get the cover. Play Philadelphia.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
Craig Davis
Detroit at UTAH (-10)
Today's free play is on the Utah Jazz to blast the Detroit Pistons at home.
Utah just doesn't lose to the Pistons... and it doesn't seem to matter where they play. Looking back over their last 10 meetings, the Jazz have won all 10 by an average of nearly 10 points per game, but it's definitely worse for Detroit in Utah.
Detroit doesn't even score 90 points per game on the road while the Jazz are scoring over 100 per game at home, and now that the Jazz have adjusted to life without Carlos Boozer in the middle, they are playing much better basketball.
Utah allows just 96 PPG at home, they shoot better free throw percentages and they rebound better... all key stats in why the Jazz will not only win this game, but they'll cover the number.
The Pistons are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven Monday games, 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against the Western Conference.
The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams from the Central division, 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage of below .400, and 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games against teams from the Eastern Conference.
Game, set, match. Jazz win by 12-14 tonight.
3♦ UTAH
Karl Garrett
Georgetown (-3) at ST. JOHN'S
Steve Lavin has the Johnnies back on track at 9-3 for the season, but this line is more of a "respect" line for Lavin's reputation more than anything else.
Let's face it, you lose to Fordham and St. Bonaventure, and you really aren't as consistent as you would like to be through your first 12 games.
Georgetown has a proven track record, and they have won 6 of the last 8 series meetings against the Redstorm.
The Hoyas also own a money-turning 6-2 spread mark their last 8 road games.
Have to lay the small chalk here, and back the visiting Hoyas to keep the upstart Johnnies at bay.
2♦ GEORGETOWN
Michael Cannon
Georgetown (-2') at ST. JOHN'S
Lay the points with Georgetown on the road tonight over St. John’s.
The Red Storm have improved by leaps and bounds this year, but they’re not quite ready to knock off a team like Georgetown.
The Hoyas are ranked No. 13 in the nation, but I don’t expect them to look past St. John’s. Not with the way the Red Storm have played so far this year and especially not after the Hoyas last two games.
Georgetown was dominated by the Irish in Wednesday’s 69-55 loss in South Bend, then knocked off DePaul on Saturday after a sluggish first half.
I expect the Hoyas to put a complete effort in tonight and to roll past the posted number as a result.
Lay the points with Georgetown for the win and cover.
3♦ GEORGETOWN
Scott Delaney
Michigan St. (-2') at NORTHWESTERN
Are the oddsmakers serious with this line?
Weren't we just lauding the Spartans as one of the top teams in the nation? Now they're ranked 19th, but when they were about to play Duke, this was supposed to be a national powerhouse.
Sure, Tom Izzo's bunch has suffered some disappointing losses, but it's much better than the Wildcats, who come in after stumbling to Purdue, 82-69, in their conference opener on New Year's Eve.
I see the 'Cats are 9-2 on the year, which looks better than the Spartans' 9-4 mark, but Northwestern hasn't played that impressive of a schedule. I see wins over Northern Illni, Texas-Pan Am, Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Creighton, Long Island-Brooklyn, American, St. Francis-New York and Mt. St. Marys.
Wow! Eight of nine wins against less than impressive teams.
Meanwhile, Michigan State has taken on the likes of South Carolina, U Conn, Washington, Duke, Syracuse, Texas and Minnesota!
And make note, the Spartans have won six straight on the road against Northwestern, a streak that has seen them win by an average of 13.7 during the run.
Look for Michigan State to exploit Northwestern's defense, and pull away for a double-digit win.
2♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Chuck O'Brien
Michigan St. at NORTHWESTERN (+2')
I gave you two wire-to-wire free winners yesterday on the Bengals and Falcons, so I’m now on a 16-4 run with complimentary releases. For Monday’s free selection in college basketball, take Northwestern as a small home underdog against Michigan State.
Even though Michigan State opened conference play with a 71-62 win over Minnesota as a seven-point favorite, I’m still not ready to proclaim that all is right with the Spartans. They’re still just 9-4 SU and 5-7 ATS on the season, and the four losses came against quality competition (UConn, Duke, Syracuse and Texas).
Despite getting blown out in two of its last three games – road losses to St. John’s (85-69) and Purdue (82-69) – Northwestern qualifies as quality competition. In particular, at home the Wildcats have been fantastic, going 6-0 while outscoring visitors by an average of 19 points per game (76-57) and shooting 51.1 percent from the floor (holding the opposition to 38.9 percent). In contrast, Michigan State is allowing 84 ppg on 47.2 percent shooting away from home.
The Spartans have failed to cover in seven of eight after a SU victory and six of seven on Mondays, while Northwestern is on pointspread surges of 21-10-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 on Monday, 8-1 after a SU loss and 9-3-1 against winning teams.
Northwestern’s crowd will be sky high for this contest, and after getting embarrassed on their home floor by the Spartans each of the last five years (all losses of nine points or more), the Wildcats’ players will be equally fired up. The oddsmakers are telling us something with this near pick-em spread, and the Chuckster calls for an outright five-point by the home team.
3♦ NORTHWESTERN
Chris Jordan
Rhode Island (+10') at FLORIDA
Now on a 4-1-2 run with complimentary basketball plays this season, and not sure if you're aware of this fact, but I've won every single week I've released college basketball, going 6-0 over the first six weeks of the season. I haven't released a play the past couple weeks with the bowl games and NFL winding down, but today I do have a 300♦ play as part of that trifecta.
Right here I like the overpriced Rhode Island Rams to keep things close against Florida, who might come in a bit hungover and get caught looking ahead to SEC action.
The Rams are no slouch, and always have a respectable program, as evidenced by its 9-4 mark, just one game behind the 10-3 Gators.
Rhode Island is in on a three-game win streak, including last Wednesday's 67-65 victory over ACC-foe Boston College.
In the team's season-opener it caught 11' points from Pittsburgh and hung in to cover in an eight-point loss. This is the same type of game I expect, as the Rams get up to play to the level of competition.
This is the last game of non-conference play for the Rams, who open up with Xavier next Sunday. It's not a lookahead scare, as the game is far enough away they'll be focused on playing the Gators tough in Gainesville.
Take the points in this one.
2♦ RHODE ISLAND
Jeff Benton
Now onto today's free play. I hit another freebie winner Sunday as the Raiders won outright at Kansas City, so that’s now six of seven comp winners (including four in a row), and going back further I’m on a 173-154-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away. On Monday, we return to the college hardwood and back Butler as a big home favorite against Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
The Bulldogs have sure righted their ship after a shaky 4-4 start, winning six in a row and – most importantly from our perspective – going 5-0 ATS in lined contests. That includes three double-digit wins over teams from big conferences (Stanford, Utah and Washington State); a three-point neutral-site victory over Florida State; and Saturday’s 76-59 pounding of Horizon League rival Valparaiso (as an 11½-point home favorite).
Going back to last year’s March Mayhem run, Butler is on a 12-3-1 ATS run, and the Bulldogs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after a SU win. And even though Wisconsin-Milwaukee got past Detroit 84-81 in overtime as a nine-point underdog on Saturday, the Panthers remain just 4-6 in their last 10 games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven. They’ve also failed to cover in four straight after an ATS win.
Total mismatch in this one, as Butler has the advantage in every conceivable area. And with the way the Bulldogs are rolling right now – not to mention Wisconsin-Milwaukee losing its last Horizon League home game to Cleveland State by an 82-59 score – anything less than a 15-point rout by Butler would be shocking.
4♦ BUTLER BULLDOGS