NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
BSU posted its 4th undefeated reg ssn in the L/6Y (3 in L/4). This is their 8th consec bowl and 10th in the L/11Y. BSU is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in bowls incl 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS under HC Petersen. BSU is just 1-4 SU (3-2 ATS) in bowls S/’04, losing all 4 gms by a comb 14 pts and is looking to avoid their 1st 3 gm bowl losing streak. In BSU’s L/6 bowls the avg MOV was only 3 ppg. For the 1st time ever, TCU is 12-0 and this their 11th bowl in 12Y. They’re 5-3 SU and 4-3-1 ATS (4-1-1 L/6) under HC Patterson (who signed a contract extension after the reg ssn), but this is their 1st trip to the BCS. Their 13 gm win streak is the 2nd longest only behind Texas and they’re 1 of 5 undefeated’s in the NCAA. LY a one loss TCU (-3) met an undefeated Boise in the Poinsettia and pulled out the 17-16 win. BSU is 4-1 ATS (avg win by 11 ppg) vs bowl-elig tms TY outscoring them by 22 ppg and outgaining them 83 ypg (was actually outgained in 2 of those - FSU, UI). TCU’s motto TY is “Don’t Back Down” and they’ve won their 1st MWC Title since joining the league in ‘05 and enter with the highest ranking ever by a non-BCS tm. TCU went 4-2 ATS vs bowl tms outscoring them 35-14 and outgaining them 441-263. While BSU plays like a Sr-laden tm, they actually have the fewest scholarship Sr’s in the NCAA (4) and feature just 1 Sr st’r (CB Wilson) but do have 19 upperclassmen in starting spots. TCU has 6 senior starters (19 upperclassmen).
When people think of TCU, they think of their D, but their #13 offense has had its own record-setting ssn. Led by MWC OPY QB Dalton they’ve set schl records in pts (488), yds (5629) and have put up at least 38 pts in 9 (another record) and hung 50+ on 4 foes. Dalton is 3 TD passes and 186 yds away from becoming TCU’s all-time leader in those categories. TCU ranks #5th in the NCAA in rush off despite not having a single rusher in the Top 85. They avg 257 ypg (5.4) and have won 31 str when rushing for more than passing. The WR’s account for 83% of the rec TY, led by do-it-all Kerley. The OL has started 97% of the games together and all’d just 10 sks (3.5%) although they have been helped by Dalton’s feet (522 net yds) and have three 1st Tm All-MWC players. TCU’s D continues to dominate and currently ranks #1 in the NCAA (#7 our rankings). They’ve held 4 opp’s to their lowest output of the ssn and every other opp under their ssn avg in both yds and pts and only all’d 1 tm (CU) to put up over 300 ttl yds. The DL allows only 81 ypg rush (2.6) and has 26 of the tm’s 33 sks, with 17 of those coming from the DE spots manned by MWC DPY Jerry Hughes and Wayne Daniels. TCU ranks #5 pass eff D all’g just 153 ypg (46%) with a 10-14 ratio. The ST’s unit ranks #15 with Kerley taking 2 to the house on PR’s. They give up an avg of 19.8 on KR’s but an outstanding 5.0 on PR’s.
The young but cohesive BSU OL has 53 comb sts and provides superb pass protection (just 5 sks all’d) for an off avg 266 ypg pass (65%) while also opening holes for 195 ypg rush (5.3). QB Moore squashed any ideas of going through a “soph slump” by simply becoming the nation’s most efficient passer (167.35) producing an eye-opening 39-3 ratio. The savvy southpaw has thrown at least 3 TD’s in 7 of the L/9 gms incl 5 in a contest 3x’s. Moore has two of the WAC’s top WR’s at his disposal in Pettis and Young, however, Pettis is ? here (brkn leg). Avery highlights a strong run game and when RB Harper was lost TY (ACL), RB-turned-DB Martin ret’d to the off. The diff between TY’s BSU tm and several of the recent past squads is the overall play of the D (#27). BSU ranks #1 in the WAC in scoring D (17.7), ttl D (299.6), pass D (172.8), pass efficiency D (103.5) and is #2 in rush D (126.8). Those figures were also good enough to land at #13 in the NCAA in ttl D and pass D and 16th in scoring D. The DL is limiting foes to 3.9 ypc, while the secondary has been equally impressive by limiting foes to just 173 ypg with a stifling 14-21 ratio. Boise is #1 in our ST rankings led by K/P Brotzman whose rugby-style punts and PK (15-18 from I/40) make him a legitimate dual-threat, while the Broncos’ return units give BSU a 27.3-19.1 ypr edge on KR and an 11.0-4.5 ypr adv on PR.
Both tms have done an incredible job through weight training and preparation to get their athletes to play at higher than expected levels. Looking at the checklist you see that these tms are not very far apart. Boise should be motivated as this is a re-match of LY’s 1 pt loss while TCU was hoping to impress vs a BCS tm. Both tms finished the yr running up scores to impress pollsters but there is concern with TCU’s def that they only had 7 sks in the L/5 gms. Boise wins its 2nd Fiesta Bowl in the L/4Y.
FORECAST: BOISE ST (+) TCU by 3 RATING:
1* BOISE ST
THE GOLDSHEET
*Tcu 24 - Boise State 22—There have been a handful of bowl rematches in
recent memory, with history indicating the first meeting has been hardly a
foolproof indicator of what will transpire in the return match. Nonetheless, a
quick review of LY’s Poinsettia Bowl between Boise and TCU is in order.
Although the Frogs ended up almost doubling the Broncos in yardage (472-250)
and totaling 28 first downs to BSU’s 15 while controlling the ball for more than 36
minutes, TCU spent most of the night in catch-up mode after falling behind 13-
0. Eventually, however, the Frogs wrested control thanks to a punishing infantry
that took advantage of an injury-depleted Bronco DL and nettedA 275 YR, while
the “D” finally figured out how to contain the Broncos’ shifty trick offense. Still,
a 17-16 TCU win wasn’t settled until Frog DB Stephen Hodge picked off one of
BSU southpaw Kellen Moore’s throws with 1:47 to play.
Although much of the personnel has changed from a year ago (each losing
roughly half of its starters), the dynamics for the rematch are remarkably
similar...only this time both enter the contest with unbeaten SU marks (last year
it was only Boise; TCU was 10-2). If there is one notable change in the styles
of each, it would be the Frogs’ ability to go downfield with more consistency
behind the arm of sr. QB Andy Dalton, who doubled his TD passes (11 to 22)
from a year ago.
But we’re reluctant to concede an edge at QB to Dalton, as Bronco
counterpart Moore (39 TDP and only 3 picks!) was the nation’s top-rated passer
and was sacked only five times all season (none in the last five games). His
protection and quick release could somewhat negate the voracious Frog pass
rush led by A-A DE Jerry Hughes (11½ sacks), whose matchup with All-WAC OT
Nate Potter will be key. Mostly, however, we suspect the quality of the opposing
stop units (TCU ranked 1st nationally, Boise 13th) will keep both teams far below
their 40+ scoring averages. And, like a year ago, keep the Broncos (losers just
4 times in the past 4 years) within striking distance throughout.
(08-Tcu 17-Boise St. 16...T.28-15 T.51/275 B.20/28 B.22/35/1/222 T.22/36/2/197 T.0 B.1)
(08-Tcu -3 17-16 (Poinsettia Bowl)...SR: EVEN 1-1)
GOLD SHEET EXTRA
BOISE STATE (TECH PLAY )
It’s a rematch of last year’s Poinsettia Bowl won by TCU in a close 17-16
verdict over Boise State. And with the Broncos undefeated straight up as
they were for last year’s game in San Diego, we have to wonder why the
oddsmakers are being so generous for the rematch, taking place at the Fiesta
Bowl January 4. We can’t knock the Horned Frogs, but there are a lot of
positives on the Broncos side, including a superb 16-7 overall mark vs. the
number since a year ago, and 4-1 in a rare dog role for HC Chris Petersen
since 2006. Boise is thus a featured Power Underdog in Glendale, and note
that the Broncos have overachieved away from their beloved blue carpet at
home, covering 10 of their last 13 away from home. And they’re also a
featured “7+” bowl dog; remember, bowl dogs receiving between 7-13½
points are 58-28 vs. the line this decade!
BOISE STATE vs. TCU (Fiesta, January 4)...Rematch of LY’s 17-16 TCU
nailbiter in Poinsettia (Boise covered +2). Broncos 16-7 vs. line since LY and
4-1 in rare dog role for Petersen since ‘06. Also 10-3 vs. number las t13 away
from blue carpet. Patterson has covered 5 of last 6 bowls and is 20-8 last 28
on board vs. line, but Boise a desired "7+" bowl dog. Tech edge- Boise,
based on team trends
LOGICAL APPROACH
This is obviously one of the most attractive matchups of all Bowls, featuring a pair of unbeaten teams both of whom have legitimate claims that they could compete with either Alabama or Texas. This is a rematch of last season's Poinsettia Bowl, won by TCU 17-16 in which they failed to cover as 3 point chalk. But TCU was clearly the better team statistically, outgaining Boise 472-250. TCU's strength this decade has been their defense and, in fact, have allowed a total of just 74 rushing yards in their last 4 Bowls (891 passing yards). They are making a fifth straight Bowl trip (ninth in 10 seasons) and have won each of the 4 prior Bowls. Boise is in their eighth straight Bowl and have lost 4 of the last 5. The lone win was that great 43-42 Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma. These teams also met in the 2003 Fort Worth Bowl with Boise winning 34-31. TCU is the stronger team and with an improved offense better than last season. TCU plays in the better conference and has an impressive road win at Clemson. Boise defeated Rose Bowl-bound Oregon at home to open their season. Both teams were dominant in their wins. TCU won 10 games by 16 or more points. Boise won 9 such games. The teams ranked # 4 and # 8 in total offense and # 1 and # 3 in points scored. TCU led the nation in total defense (233 ypg) while Boise was pretty good as well (300 ypg, # 13). Boise has the nation's top rated QB and the offense lost just 13 turnovers all season while their defense caused 32 takeaways for a +19 turnover margin, second only to Rutgers +20. Last season both teams also had impressive offensive stats heading into their Bowl matchup and yet the game was low scoring. With a month to prepare defenses often have an edge over offenses as offenses rely on rhythm and timing and still need to execute in the face of defensive pressure. Thus this game could similarly be lower scoring than the offensive stats would suggest. These teams combine to average 85 points per game and allow 30. The Total is practically in the middle of those extremes. The stats and quality of opposition faces would make a solid case for TCU to win handily. But it's also hard to ignore that Boise's now won 25 of their last 26 games with the lone loss coming to TCU in last season's Bowl that ended Boise's unbeaten season. That's a strong revenge motive. And each of Boise's last 6 Bowls have been decided by 6 points or less, 3 by a FG or less. The combined ATS record of 16-7 shows how both teams have exceeded expectations this season. The better team, TCU, should get the straight up win although a Boise upset certainly will not surprise. The forecast is for TCU to win 24-23, making
BOISE STATE a 3 Star Selection and the UNDER a 2 Star Selection .
PLAYBOOK
TCU over Boise St by 6
Believe it or not, some people are actually bitching about the fact that a
pair of ‘non-BCS’ conference teams are squaring off in a BCS bowl here.
Not us! We can’t wait to see two of the nation’s fi ve undefeated teams in a
rematch of last year’s 17-16 TCU win over Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl.
In fact, we think these guys can play with ANYBODY in the country. So
does Coach of the Year winner Gary Patterson of TCU, who voted his team
No. 2 in the fi nal coaches poll because “I owed it to my football team to
do so.” Talk about a pair of heavyweights: last year’s loss to TCU has been
Boise State’s lone defeat in the past two seasons while the Frogs have been
beaten by only Oklahoma and a perfect 2008 Utah squad. Today’s game pits
the proverbial irresistible force against the immovable object. The Broncos
lead the nation in scoring at 44.3 PPG (they’ve scored at least 40 points in
seven straight games), rank No. 8 in total offense and QB Kellen Moore has
thrown for a whopping 39 TDs in 2009 while suffering only THREE picks!
Coach Chris Petersen’s scoring machine will face off with a ferocious Horned
Frog stop unit that fi nished No. 1 in total defense (233.3 YPG) and No. 6 in
scoring defense (12.4 PPG). But TCU’s resume doesn’t end with defense –
the Froggies’ offense enjoyed its own record-setting year. QB Andy Dalton
earned MWC Player of the Year honors by throwing for 2,484 yards and
22 TDs while rushing for an additional 522 yards. When it comes to ATS
advantages, our database declares this showdown to be a dead heat. TCU’s
Patterson is 7-2 ATS with rest versus non-conference opponents and his
unique 4-2-5 defensive-scheme spearheaded by monster DE Jerry Hughes
held eight opponents to season low – or 2nd low – yardage this season.
But Boise State owns a formidable 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS record against
bowlers the last two years and WAC bowl dogs off a win of 20 or more
points are 10-0 ATS versus a greater than .700 opponent. Wow! Since TCU
is the ONLY team in the FBS to outgain every foe in 2009 and Patterson’s
gang held the Broncos to only 28 yards rushing in last year’s bowl win, we
have to side with the Horned Ones to claim the SU decision. However, Boise
State’s burning need for vengeance (“That loss is like acid in the bottom
of your stomach,” said DT Billy Winn) and the presence of Moore – the
nation’s most effi cient QB -– means there is precious little wiggle room in
the current 7-point spread. You can pick your poison if you must but we’re
going to play the role of football voyeur here and just watch.
POINTWISE
For the first time ever, a pair of unbeaten teams meet in a BCS game, other
than the national championship game. And altho this should be a spectacular
match, both teams deserved a shot at an automatic BCS conference squad.
A year ago, they met in the Poinsettia Bowl, which was a slap, as they entered
with a combined 22-2 record, while standing 9th & 11th in the national polls.
That game, by the way, was won by the Frogs (-3) 17-16. But that score sure
didn't mirror TCU's total dominance. Try 28-15 FD, 275-28 RY, 472-250 TY, &
36:07-23:53 TCU edges. For the Frogs, this marks their 11th bowl trip in the
last 12 years. Offensively, they are led by steady QB Dalton, who ranks 4th in
the nation in passing efficiency (62.4%, 2,484 yds, 22/5), & running game that
checks in at #4. Thus, they can obviously move the ball (4th in total offense,
3rd in scoring). But it has been their "D", which has gained the most notoriety,
as it ranks #1 in the nation for the 2nd straight year. Only Texas & Alabama
have a higher ranked rushing "D". Only 4 teams topped 92 RYs vs the Frogs.
Note 32-11 FD & 342-65 RY edges in its 55-28 rout of Utah. The Broncos of
Boise State have posted eye-popping stats the past eleven years, with no less
than 9 double digit win campaigns. A combined 47-4 the last 4 years, while
finishing the regular season with perfect marks 3 of the last 4 campaigns. And
everyone well remembers their spectacular OT upset of Oklahoma in the '06
Fiesta, which many call the greatest bowl game ever. Led by the nation's top
ranked QB, Moore (64.8%, 3,325 yds, 39/3), they rank #1 in scoring. But they
were no match for the Frogs' overwhelming "D" last year. We lay the TD spot.
PROPHECY: TCU 33 - Boise State 20 RATING: 2
BANG THE BOOK
The Fiesta Bowl game pits two teams against one another that are both fighting for respectability. The Boise St Broncos and the TCU Horned Frogs both finished the season unbeaten and the winner of this game could conceivably argue that they deserve a piece of the national Championship. Boise St. Broncos finished the year undefeated and beat the Pac 10 champion Oregon Ducks but they have not gotten much respect. The schedule was weak and for that they slipped in the polls as other undefeated media darlings passed them up along the way. One of those media darlings is the TCU Horned Frogs. The Frogs were undefeated and the polls awarded them with a #3 ranking and teams are lining up to play them next year. They rewarded backers at the window with an 8-4 ATS record and flexed a powerful defense against some packed offenses in the Mountain West. The BCS failed the fans miserably by putting these teams together but one of these teams will have a good argument when this bowl game is over. This game will be a difference maker for the Broncos. They can prove the critics wrong and they can beat the team that stole the spotlight from them. The Broncos are 36-15-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record; they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Boise St takes center stage and proves to the critics that they should be considered among the best in the country.
Fiesta Bowl Pick: Boise St +7.5
Kyle Hunter
Austin Peay vs. Eastern Kentucky
Play: Under 143
I think the posted total is set a little high in this one. These two teams are both playing a little slower than they did last year. Austin Peay lost a whole lot of talent and is now more defensive based. I think the odds makers are a little slow to react to the changes that both of these teams have had, which gives us a solid opportunity to bet on the under here.
Andrew Bucciarelli
2* Boston Bruins (+106) over New York Rangers
This is the second game between these two teams as the first matchup gave the Rangers a 1-0 series lead. The Rangers will be facing a much stronger Boston Bruin team and this matchup will go to the away team. The Rangers are coming off a loss to the league worst Carolina Hurricanes. The Boston Bruins are still going strong after their Winter Classic win. If they follow history, they will be the third team to win the next four games after winning the Winter Classic. The Rangers have lost the last 8 of 9 at Madison Square Garden. Look for Marc Savard to come out of his slump and pull a win together for the Bruins.
2* San Jose Sharks (-200) over Los Angeles Kings
This is the fourth of six meetings this season and the Kings have taken two of three games so far this season. Both games have been very close decisions and San Jose is looking to continue their eight game winning streak by defeating the Kings. Evgeni Nabokov has allowed two goals or less in eight consecutive starts, going 7-0-1 in that stretch with a .947 save percentage. The Sharks have just 8 losses and they are not going to beat their own drum. They are still taking each game one at a time and will not lower their play when they take on the Kings. Watch Nabokov as he will have a great game.
SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
FIESTA BOWL
(at Glendale, Ariz.)
(6) Boise State (13-0, 8-4 ATS) vs. (4) TCU (12-0, 8-4 ATS)
Two non-BCS squads hook up in the postseason for the second straight year, this time at University of Phoenix Stadium in the marquee Fiesta Bowl, as Boise State meets TCU in a battle of unbeatens.
The Broncos capped their fourth undefeated regular season in the last six years with a 42-7 rout of New Mexico State on Dec. 5, but came up short as a massive 46-point home chalk. Boise State rolled to its third straight Western Athletic Conference title by winning 12 of its 13 games by double digits, with nine wins of 17 points or more. Going back to the start of last season, coach Chris Petersen’s squad is 25-1 SU and 16-7-1 ATS, with the only blemish being a 17-16 loss to TCU in last year’s Poinsettia Bowl. Also, since September 2005, the Broncos are 57-6 SU, and this is their second BCS Bowl appearance, having stunned Oklahoma 43-42 in the Fiesta Bowl following the 2006 season to finish that year 13-0.
The Horned Frogs have been idle since Nov. 28, when they destroyed New Mexico 51-10 at home, though they fell just shy of covering the 44½-point spread, ending a 6-0 ATS run. En route to its first-ever Mountain West Conference championship, TCU notched 10 double-digit wins, including the last seven in a row by a combined score of 329-73, with victory margins of 38, 31, 41, 43, 27, 35 and 41 points. Coach Gary Patterson’s team is 26-2 over the past 28 games (18-8 ATS in lined action), with 24 of those victories by double digits. The only losses were on the road to Oklahoma (35-10) and Utah (13-10), two teams that finished last year ranked in the Top 5.
Although the Horned Frogs barely held off Boise State in last year’s Poinsettia Bowl, they dominated the game from a statistical standpoint, finishing with edges of 472-250 in total yards, 275-28 in rushing yards, 28-15 in first downs and 36-24 in time of possession. Still, TCU came up short as a 3½-point favorite. The only other recent meeting between these schools came in the 2003 Texas Bowl, with Boise State prevailing 34-31 but failing to cover as a 10-point favorite.
Since stunning Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, Boise State has lost consecutive bowl games by a total of four points. Under Petersen the Broncos are just 1-4 in the postseason (the one victory over Oklahoma) but 3-2 ATS with the four defeats by a combined 14 points.
The Horned Frogs are in the postseason for the 11th time in the last 12 years, with this being their first BCS bowl contest. TCU is 5-3 SU and 4-3-1 ATS in the postseason since Patterson took over, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six.
Boise State scored 42 points or more in nine of 13 games this year, including the last seven in a row, when the Broncos averaged 49.3 ppg. Led by QB Kellen Moore (64.6 completion rate, 3,325 yards, 39 TDs, 3 INTs), the Broncos lead the nation in scoring offense (44.2 ppg), rank eighth in total offense (460.5 ypg) and 20th in rushing offense (195.1 ypg). Defensively, Boise limited six opponents to 16 points or less and finished giving up 17.7 points and 299.6 total yards per outing (126.8 rushing ypg).
TCU scored 44, 38, 41, 55, 55, 45 and 51 points over its final seven weeks and enter this contest ranked in the Top 10 nationally in scoring offense (40.7 ppg, third), total offense (469.1 ypg, fourth) and rushing offense (256.5 ypg, fifth). Three-year starting QB Andy Dalton paces the attack, as he’s completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 2,484 yards with 22 TDs and five INTs, along with 516 rushing yards and three additional scores.
In addition to having a Top 10 offense, the Horned Frogs rank in the Top 10 in scoring defense (12.4 ppg, sixth), total defense (233.3 ypg, first), passing defense (152.8 ypg, tied for fourth) and rushing defense (80.5 ypg, third). The Frogs have surrendered 17 points or less in 20 of their last 22 games against Division I-A foes since the start of the 2008 season. Take away the 35-10 loss at Oklahoma last year, and they’ve yielded just 31 touchdowns since the beginning of 2008. Moreover, TCU has surrendered 10 points or less 14 times in 25 games going back to the beginning of last year.
Boise State is on a boatload of positive ATS runs, including 16-7-1 overall, 6-2 in bowl games, 4-1 as an underdog, 4-1 as a ‘dog in bowl games, 4-0 when catching 3½ to 10 points, 6-1 in non-conference play and 9-0 on grass. Likewise, the Horned Frogs also have been a moneymaking machine, currently on ATS upticks of 39-19-1 overall, 6-1 in the last six games (all as a favorite), 4-1 in bowls, 7-1 when coming off a non-cover and 37-18-1 when playing on grass.
The under is on runs of 5-1 for Boise in non-league action, 5-0 for Boise against Mountain West opponents, 6-2 for Boise as an underdog, 5-0-1 for TCU in bowl games, 6-1 for TCU against WAC foes, 6-0 when TCU is favored by 3½ to 10 points and 12-3-1 for TCU after a non-cover. On the flip side, the over is on streaks of 4-1 for the Broncos overall, 5-2 for the Broncos against winning teams and 4-0 for TCU overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Atlanta (21-11, 22-10 ATS) at Miami (16-15, 15-16 ATS)
Two teams looking to end three-game losing streaks meet inside the American Airlines Arena in Miami when the Hawks visit the Heat in a Southeast Division showdown.
Atlanta comes in having dropped five of seven (3-4 ATS), including a 112-108 home loss to the Knicks on Friday as an 11-point favorite. The last time the Hawks were on the road was Wednesday when they lost 106-101 in Cleveland but got the cash as 5½-point ‘dogs. Atlanta hasn’t been playing much defense lately, allowing 107 points and 49.4 percent shooting over the last five games, including 41.4 percent shooting from beyond the three-point line.
Miami’s three-game SU and ATS losing streak (0-3 ATS) includes a disastrous 107-97 home loss to the Bobcats on Saturday, falling outright as a six-point favorite. The Heat’s three-game skid comes on the heels of winning five of six (both SU and ATS), including four of five at home.
The Hawks have dominated this series lately, including last year’s Eastern Conference playoff series, winning seven of the last 10 meetings (6-4 ATS). That includes a 105-90 victory on Nov. 18, cashing as a 7½-point home chalk. However, the host has covered in each of the last four clashes, and the Heat hold a 14-4 ATS advantage in the last 18 meetings in South Beach.
Atlanta comes in on pointspread surges of 9-4 overall, 5-2 on the road, 4-0-2 on Monday, 6-0 after a non-cover and 4-1 after getting two days off. Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five after getting a day off, but otherwise is on ATS slides of 4-10 at home, 1-4 on Mondays and 8-21 at home against teams with a winning road record.
The Hawks have stayed under the total in seven of nine Monday games and 13 of 18 after a non-cover, but soared “over” the number in four of five overall and five of six against Eastern Conference teams. The Heat have stayed below the posted total in five of six overall and five of seven against Eastern Conference squads, but they are on “over” streaks of 29-11-1 after a non-cover and 34-16-1 after a straight-up loss. In this series, the “under” is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings, including 5-0 in the five clashes in Florida.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Frank Jordan
Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Play: Pittsburgh +4
Pittsburgh has come out hot as they are 12-2 in their first 14 games and the two losses were on neutral sites. Pittsburgh has played well in the tough Big East too as they won both games including a ten point win against Syracuse. Cincinnati is 10-3 and the three losses came in a five game span as well as two coming in overtime. This is their third straight big game in Big East play as they have won against UCONN and Rutgers. Look for Pittsburgh to keep it from becoming three in a row as they pad their stats to become ranked. Play Pittsburgh
Jeff Hochman
Boston Bruins vs. New York Rangers
Play: Under 5.5
Both teams play strong defense and would rather beat you down on defense than take chances on offense. The Under is 46-22 combined when these teams play this season. Also, an impressive 12-2 Under run for both teams. This looks like another low-scoring grind it out type game. Go under 5.5 goals!
EZWINNERS
Los Angeles Clippers -3
The Blazers are really hurting right now. Portland has already lost centers Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla to injury and forward LaMarcus Aldridge is doubtful to play in this game. That is bad news for the Blazers, because they are going to have their hands full against Clippers center Chris Kaman who is having an All-Star type season. The Blazers held off a frantic charge by the Clippers in the final seconds to win 103-99 last week in Portland. They won't be so lucky in this game. The Blazers are only 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as a road underdog of less than five points. Lay the points.
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Portland Trail Blazers. Sorry, but I just don't trust the Clippers in this spot. Portland is deeper and better at just about every position... maybe that's why they've won the last four vs. the Clips and 7 of the last 8. The Clippers are 9-8 at home while the Blazers are also 9-8 on the road, so clearly the Clippers don't have a home court advantage thing working here. The road team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings and I'm blown away that Portland is actually catching a few points tonight. A 22-13 team catching points is just too juicy to pass up. Los Angeles isn't playing very well right now, having won just 2 of their last six games SU and both of those teams were from the east. The only advantage the Clippers have in this one is field goal percentage... and it's not much. Portland dominates every other statistical category and should walk out of the Staples Center tonight with a win.
2♦ PORTLAND
Michael Cannon
Oklahoma City +1' at CHICAGO
I deliver the 2-0 sweep yesterday with the Patriots and Cowboys, which improves my record to 57-39-3 with my last 99 overall free plays.
Take Oklahoma City as the small road dog over the Bulls.
The Thunder have had good success visiting Chicago the last few years, winning and covering nine of their last 11 trips to the United Center.
The Bulls are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a home chalk and are an even 5-5 SU in their last 10 at home.
Kevin Durant and Nick Collison combined for 45 ppg and 20 rpg in last year’s games against Chicago, and Russell Westbrook is much improved at the point for the Thunder.
Take Oklahoma City as they get it done on the road.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Bobby Maxwell
New Orleans at UTAH -6'
I'm on FREE runs of 42-18 over the last two months, plus 19-4 over the last 23 days. Today I've got a comp winner for you on the NBA hardwood as I go with the homestanding Jazz to get it done over the Hornets.
Nothing satisfies Utah’s troubles like some home-cooking. I know they fell at home on Saturday night to the Nuggets, but the Jazz will get the big win tonight over the Hornets – they always do.
This is one of those rivalries that is completely one-sided. Utah has won eight of the last nine meetings and five straight at home (4-0-1 ATS). Last year they crushed the Hornets twice in Utah, winning 102-88 as a seven-point favorite and 116-90 as a four-point favorite. In fact, none of the last five games between these two in Utah has been decided by less than 10 points. All Jazz blowouts.
New Orleans has lost four straight road games (1-3 ATS) and they haven’t beaten the Jazz since February 2008. The home team is on an 8-3-1 ATS run in this series and the favorite is 6-2-1 in the last nine contests.
The Hornets are on ATS slides of 10-21 against the Western Conference, 3-8 on Mondays, 7-20 against Northwest Division opponents and 1-4 on the road. Utah is on ATS runs of 21-7 on Mondays, 8-2 at home, 7-0 after a non-cover and 4-0 against Southwest Division teams.
Look for Utah to win this one by 12 at least. Play the Jazz.
5♦ UTAH