Tony Weston
Another strong winner yesterday as the Patriots get the cover against the Texans after flirting with the outright victory.
I’m handing you another winner tonight as I’m taking UC Irvine at home against visiting Cal Poly San Luis Obispo in some Big West college hoops action.
Coming into this game Cal Poly SLO has lost three consecutive games SU and has failed to cover in each of its last 2 lined games and only twice in its last four lined games.
In that three-game stretch the Mustangs have lost by an average of 19.6 points per game. Keep in mind, also, that Cal Poly has lost by nearly 15 points per game on the road this season (78-63.1).
Now the Mustangs face an Anteater team that dominated them in their two meetings last season.
In their two meetings Irvine went 2-0 SU and ATS, beating Cal Poly, on average, by 12 points per game. When they played on the Anteaters home floor, Irvine beat the Mustangs 80-63 as a 3 1/2 point underdog.
Irvine will do it again and cruise to another victory over Cal Poly tonight.
3♦ UC IRVINE
Drew Gordon
Atlanta at MIAMI +1'
29-21-3 roll over my L53 Free Plays! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Hawks/Heat match up.
This is an interesting match up because the betting public is convinced that the Hawks will not lose 4 straight, and not surprisingly, the guys in Vegas are playing them like a fiddle with this number. While its "tempting" to bet Atlanta here, be forewarned, the Heat have not lost more than 3 straight this season, and I suspect they'll be bringing their "A" tonight at home.
Why you ask? Because unlike the Hawks' team that started 19-6, right now this Atlanta defense is reeling, which is EXACTLY what the doctor ordered for a floundering Heat offense. Denver dropped 124 on them, Cleveland 106, and the Knicks 112 in recent examples of their shoddy play, and the fact they're allowing 107 ppg on 49% (41% from 3-point) over their L5 games, shows just how lackadasical Atlanta is playing on D right now!
Historians of this series note one key number: 95 points. When Miami scores 95 points or more, they're 4-0 against the Hawks since last season! With the Hawks defense struggling, there's no question in my mind the Heat reach this critical benchmark, grabbing the cash in the process. In the end, this is a bet not only against public perception, but also against the Hawks poor defensive play of late, which will not get solved on the road, rest-assured.
Take Miami plus the points over Atlanta in this NBA match up.
3♦ MIAMI
Dominic Fazzini
Oklahoma City +2' at CHICAGO
I could manage only a push Sunday with my complimentary play on the Chargers, but considering they pulled just about all of their starters after one quarter, I guess I'll take it. I'm still 52-32-1 over the past 85 days, including a run of 35-19-1 over the last 55!
I'm going to turn my attention toward the NBA for today's winner, backing the rising Thunder as they take on the Bulls in Chicago.
Oklahoma City might have the best young nucleus of talent in the league, and that talent is growing up in a hurry. Star forward Kevin Durant has scored 30 or more points in seven straight games, and sidekicks Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green are also making major contributions.
The Thunder had their six-game winning streak snapped with a 103-97 overtime loss at Milwaukee, as Durant was held to 10 points in the second half and overtime, but I like them to bounce back tonight.
Oklahoma City has played well on the road, going 9-8, and it won 109-98 at the United Center last season. The Thunder are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in Chicago, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the clubs.
The Thunder are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog. Take Oklahoma City to cover the points tonight as a slight 'dog.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Brett Atkins
I improved to 15-10-1 with my last 26 free selections after nailing the Steelers on Sunday at Miami. Today I've got a college hoops comp play coming in the Big East as I grab the points and play Pitt on the road in Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh played a wonderful game on Saturday at Syracuse, winning 82-72 as an 11-point underdog and knocking the Orangemen from the ranks of the unbeatens. This Panthers’ squad is tough and they’ve been in plenty of tough environments and games before. Going to Cincinnati isn’t going to overwhelm them at all.
The Panthers got great balance from Jermaine Dixon and Ashton Gibbs who combined to score 45 against Syracuse. The key today will be how they defend Deonta Vaughn from the Bearcats. If they limit him to 15 points or less, this should be an easy Pitt win.
Cincinnati had an ugly loss at UAB in mid-December, losing 64-47 and getting drilled on the glass 44-29. I expect Pitt to dominate the glass today and get a lot of second-chance points.
Pitt won last year’s matchup 85-69 and covered as a 15 ½-point favorite. The Panthers have won five of the last six meetings between these two and they come in on ATS runs of 9-4-1 in Big East play, 5-0-1 on Mondays, 3-0-1 overall and 3-1-1 after a straight-up win.
The Bearcats are on ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 1-5 vs. Big East teams and 1-4 after a straight-up win.
Pitt looked wonderful on Saturday and no reason they shouldn’t look good again today. Grab the points and play the Panthers.
3♦ PITT
Jay McNeil
I lost my second straight free play as the Titans couldn't get the needed margin of victory over Seattle, but I'm still 8-4 over the past 12 days. And I will score a winner with the Jazz tonight!
New Orleans is solid when its at home, but get the team on the road, and it is just awful. The Hornets are 2-13 on the road, and have lost four straight.
They give up 105.1 points away from home, compared to 96.7 in New Orleans. The Hornets have lost six straight games at Utah by double digits, and the Jazz's average margin of victory has been by 20.7 points in those games.
Utah enters this game on a two-game losing streak, so you can be assured coach Jerry Sloan is not going to tolerate anything less than a stellar effort tonight.
The Jazz have won eight of the last nine meetings overall between these teams, going 7-1-1 ATS, and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Take Utah to win tonight by double figures.
4♦ UTAH
Charley Sutton
Bad call on the Colts yesterday as a lack of starters and a snow storm slow down Indy.
Well, luckily tonight we won’t have to worry about the elements as I’m headed to the hardwood where I’m taking North Carolina on the road at Charleston.
The Tar Heels come into this game installed as about a 15-point favorite. North Carolina heads into Charleston having won three consecutive games SU, having beat its opponents in that stretch, on average, by 22.6 points per game.
Now the Tar Heels battle a Cougars team that’s won just 2 of its last 5 games SU and has covered in just 2 of its last 5 lined games.
Keep in mind, too, when these two hooked up last season, North Carolina cruised to an easy victory, beating Charleston 108-70 as a 27-point favorite.
It’ll be another blowout as the Heels get another easy win over the Cougars.
3 ♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Joel Tyson
The total for Monday's Fiesta Bowl seems a tad high for my liking, so let's go UNDER with Boise State and TCU.
Last year these schools met in the Poinsetttia Bowl, and there were 33 combined points.
TCU has allowed 14 points or less in 9 of their 12 games this season, and 6 of their last 7 games against the WAC have landed UNDER the total.
The Frogs are also on a 5-0-1 UNDER clip their last 6 bowl games.
Boise State's last 5 bowl games against the Mountain West have played LOW as well.
It all adds up to a Fiesta Bowl UNDER.
2♦ UNDER
Pete Angelo
Boise State at Hawaii
While the gridiron Broncos are doing battle in the Fiesta Bowl, the basketball version will be taking care of business on the island tonight, hours later.
And I like the road team in this WAC rivalry.
The Warriors are playing at home for the 14th time in 15 games, and were literally handled by Idaho in a 59-52 final on Saturday night. It was the third loss in the last four games for Hawaii, which is now 7-6 at home.
Boise, on the other hand, played respectable in a 71-68 loss at Fresno State, an always tough place to play.
I'm thinking Boise comes in disappointed by Saturday's outcome and will bounce back for a quick bounce back to get back in the win column.
Look for Boise to get physical and dominate with inside play to steal this win.
4♦ BOISE STATE
Chuck O'Brien
Take Cincinnati and lay the points against Pittsburgh in Monday’s college basketball action.
The Bearcats are a perfect 7-0 at home, outscoring visitors by an average of 17 points per game (77.6-60.6). Yes, their most competitive home game was their last one on Wednesday, but that was against 10th-ranked UConn, and Cincinnati dominated the Huskies the entire way and held on for a kind of misleading 71-69 win (pushing as a two-point favorite).
Cincinnati, displaying signs of a maturing team, didn’t spend too much time celebrating the win over UConn, as they went to Rutgers on Saturday and won 65-58 as a five-point road favorite. That puts the Bearcats at 10-3 coming into tonight, including a current four-game winning streak (and two of the team’s losses came in overtime).
As for Pitt, it is coming off easily its most impressive victory so far (Saturday’s 82-72 upset of No. 5 Syracuse as an 11-point road ‘dog). But that just means the Panthers are in a tough letdown situation here. Also, before shocking Syracuse, Pitt had played only two notable teams and lost both games (78-62 to Texas as a 7½-point underdog; 74-64 to Indiana as a nine-point favorite).
The home team has won three straight regular-season meetings in this Big East rivalry, and Cincinnati is 3-1 ATS in the last four against Pitt just since the start of the 2008 season.
3♦ CINCINNATI BEARCATS
DAVE PRICE
1 Unit on Utah Jazz -7.5
Off back-to-back defeats, expect the Jazz, who are 12-5 SU & 11-6 ATS at home, to bounce back in a big way tonight against a Hornets team that is just 2-13 SU & 5-10 ATS on the road. Utah is a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS at home against the Hornets the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average of 23 points while being favored by an average of just 4.8. Plus, Utah is a perfect 9-0 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. We'll lay the points.
JIM FEIST
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS / LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
TAKE: UNDER
You have to give the Portland Trailblazers a lot of credit. Despite being riddled with injuries most of the young season, they are still in 2nd place in the Northwest Division with a 22-13 record. In fact, they Blazers have won two straight and eight of their last 10. But, bad news hits the club again as they now have lost guard Steve Blake indefinitely as he's been hospitalized with pneumonia. The injuries have hit so hard that the league has granted Portland two hardship roster exemptions. Brandon Roy continues to lead the club, averaging 23.3 ppg. Portland's defense is one of the best, holding opponents to just 92.89ppg this season (third best in the NBA). The lack of consistency in the lineup has hurt the club offensively though, as they are just 24th in the league in points scored (96.7). The good news here is that the Clippers are 25th in the league in offense (95.8 ppg). The Clippers have been a bit of a puzzle this year, as they average more points on the road than they have at home. In fact, the Clippers are 3-14 O/U at home this season while they are 9-6 O/U on the road. The Clippers have had three days off for this game after winning at home on New Year's eve over the Sixers. 104-88. The Clippers broke the century mark for just the third time in their last 15 games. Don't expect a lot of offense in this game. The Blazers are hurting and the Clippers just seem to play a slower paced game at home. Take the UNDER and try not to fall asleep.