Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 6

Rob Vinciletti

West Virginia vs. Texas Tech
Play: West Virginia -1

Both these teams have struggled vs top 100 RPI Teams this year with neither winning a game. However, West Virginia is the stronger of the two teams as they have the 31st best scoring offense in the league and match that up with a Texas Tech team that is 175 in home defense and 159 in scoring offense. Tech lost here to Iowa. St on Saturday while the Mounties come in off a solid road win and cover at TCU. They have also won 3 of the 4 in the series and are our choice here tonight in college Hoops.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Red Dog Sports

Florida Panthers vs. Montreal Canadiens
Play: Florida Panthers +165

Small play on the underdog as there are just a few games going on in hockey due to the national title game going in college football. Montreal is a good team with plenty of tradition. However, they have lost both games this year to Florida by scores of 4-1 and 2-1. Florida has been playing at home lately but they are 3-1 in their last 4 road games. Montreal is just 1-3 in its last 4 games. Hopefully, we see the underdog play well tonight on the road.

Brandon Shively

Canisius vs. Marist
Play: Marist +2½

Marist is now on a 4 game winning streak and I like them in this spot tonight against Canisius. This is a tough spot for Canisius as they are on back-to-back road games and have back-to-back revenge games on deck at home. Canisius is basically a one man team with Billy Baron and his 21 ppg. If Baron has a bad night, then there is really no one else to pick up the slack. Canisius has 4 losses on the road this season already .

For Marist, like I said, they have won 4 straight and have been enjoying camping at home lately. Not many people are looking at Marist right now after they lost their first 9 games of the season. Marist was struggling early in the season because they were getting off to slow starts and would quit hustling in the second half. Now, Marist has increased their defensive pressure and in effect has been creating more turnovers and been able to build early leads.

I feel like the best way to look at stats for this game is too look at the last 5 games played by both teams. Canisius defense is giving up 72 ppg, allowing opponents to shoot 44% from the floor. It is evident that they are not playing defense by the fact that they are getting out rebounded 29-33 their last 5 games. When I look at Marist, I see a team that is holding opponents to 38% from the floor their last 5 games and are out rebounding their opponents 33-30.

Marist has talent as they are led by swingman Chavaughn Lewis who can score from anywhere on the floor. They also have senior Jay Bowie in the backcourt who is shooting 43% from the three point line this season In the paint, they have Adam Kemp who is a senior that will get close to a double double every night. Marist also has a nice redshirt freshman, Khalid Hart, running the point.

Overall, we are getting a team in Marist tonight as a homedog that has an experienced team that has been playing together for a couple years now. Really the only newcomer is the point guard but Hart is playing 30 minutes a game, so obviously the coaches like the kid as he is making good decisions on the court. Marist is playing their best ball of the season and now is a great time to take them at home vs. a Canisius team that is ready to get back home and play on their own gym.

Trends:
Marist is 7-3 ATS their last 10 games overall.
Marist is 7-3 ATS their last 10 vs. the Metro Atlantic Conference.
Marist is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Brandon Shively's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Hawks at Nets
Pick: Over

The Atlanta Hawks look to snap a two game losing streak as they travel to Brooklyn to take on the Nets. The Hawks will have to go forward without Center Al Horford, who is out with a torn pectoral muscle. The loss of Horford on Dec 26 has already affected the Atlanta scoring average which has dropped from 102.5 ppg to just 99.2 ppg since. The Hawks have also seen their scoring average drop nearly six percentage points too without their star center. Moreover, in their loss to Chicago on Saturday, the Hawks were held to just 37% from the field. Atlanta will look to Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague to fill the void of Horford (18.6 ppg). The Brooklyn Nets aren't without their own loss as center Brook Lopez (20.7 ppg) is also out. Unlike the Hawks, the Nets are looking to extend their modest two-game winning streak after wins at Oklahoma City and at home over the Cavaliers. Even without both key pieces, I'm still looking to the OVER here on Monday. Despite their last three games going UNDER, the Hawks had seen 13 of the previous 14 go OVER. In fact, in their last 28 road games the Hawks have gone over 21 times. Brooklyn has been a good OVER play too, with seven of their last 11 games going OVER. Against the Eastern Conference the Nets are 10-4-1 Over/Under in their last 15 games. The loss of Horford has had an affect on the Hawks scoring, but I look for Atlanta to get back to it's Over ways here on Monday against the Nets.

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Maryland at PittsburghFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PittsburghFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Unranked Pittsburgh is off to an impressive 13-1 start to the season, with their lone loss coming against Cincinnati in a 44-43 game played at Madison Square Garden. A win over Maryland tonight will likely see them get some votes to move up to the Top 25 in the national rankings. The Panthers are undefeated at home, with a 9-0 record, and the average margin of victory in those games was a whopping 19 points. They are being asked to cover a significant spread here tonight against Maryland, but with a number still in single digits, I think the home team will cover easily. The difference could come at the free throw line, where the Panthers are shooting nearly 75%, almost 10% higher than the Terps. This will be the toughest challenge for Maryland since facing the Buckeyes in Ohio back on December 4. They lost that game by a score of 76-60, and it won't get any easier here in Pittsburgh. The Terms shot below 40% in the loss to OSU, and they were just 2-of-18 from thee point range. Playing just their third road game of the season, I expect to see similar struggles offensively here against Pitt.

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TENN CHATTANOOGA AT THE CITADELSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: TENN CHATTANOOGA -3.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Two of the younger teams in D1 get together tonight as The Citadel plays host to Chattanooga. The Mocs and Bulldogs have just one senior between them, and the result has not surprisingly been some rough sledding for both squads so far this season.
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That one senior is a true difference maker, however. Z Mason is going to be the best player on the floor tonight for either team. Mason is deadly inside, and can be a horse on the boards as well. He’s also on a tear since returning from missing a couple of games, and has recorded double doubles in each of the last three games.
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Mason and the Mocs have some definite issues on defense. They’re one of the shortest teams in the country and that’s been exploited by several opponents as Chattanooga can’t stop anything inside. But that might not be as problematic tonight.
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The Citadel is really bad. The Bulldogs are basically lousy at everything except shooting free throws, and they’re not very good at getting to the line. This team has negative numbers in virtually all categories, and the results have been predictable. The Citadel has four wins, but only one vs. a D1 opponent, and that came against Presbyterian.
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The scheduling offers a slight advantage to the home team. They’ve been off since Thursday wile it’s the back end of a two road games in three days spot for the Mocs. But that’s not enough to offset everything else in play here.
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Chattanooga comes in with some positive momentum, having won three straight and this is not an opponent with the profile to exploit the obvious defensive weaknesses on the Mocs. It looks to me like a game they ought to win by a reasonable margin, and this number is therefore not much of an obstacle.
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The visitors will undoubtedly be the far more popular betting choice tonight, which doesn’t thrill me. But more importantly, Chattanooga also looks like the right side, so I’ll go ahead and recommend laying it with the Mocs tonight.

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Dallas Stars at New York IslandersSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: New York IslandersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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While they lost last time out, the Islanders are starting to show significant improvement.
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Prior to Saturday’s 3-2 loss vs. Carolina, the Isles had won three straight. Those wins came vs. Chicago and Boston and at Minnesota. So, they weren’t “cheap” victories, by any means.
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Tavares and Vanek both scored last time out. Goalie Nabokov is 3-2-0 with a 2.02 GAA over his last five starts.
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The Isles figure to be catching Dallas at the right time. The Stars have been outscored 11-5 their last two games, losing both.
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Dallas goalie Lehtonen is 1-1-1 with an ugly 5.12 GAA over his last four starts against the Isles.
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At a pick ’em price, I believe the Isles are worth a look.

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Florida vs. MontrealFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: FloridaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I'm going to take a flyer w/ the underdog Panthers on Monday as after a horrible start to the season, they have actually been a lot better over the last month or so. The same cannot be said for Montreal.
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Also, I'd like to take the time to mention that I went 3-0-1 w/ my NFL Wildcard selections this weekend!
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The Habs are off a 4-3 home loss to Ottawa on Saturday. They did earn a point by forcing overtime w/ a two-goal third period, but it was their third loss in the last four games overall. One of those was in Florida, 4-1. It was their second loss to the Panthers this season, the first coming two weeks earlier here at the Bell Centre by a score of 2-1. Florida outshot them in both games. Montreal wound up with only 40 total shots. Since losing in Miami on the 29th, the Canadiens have allowed at least four goals in every game.
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The Panthers won in a shootout Saturday, beating Nashville 5-4. While they had dropped four of five previously, before that the team had won a season-high five in a row and seven of eight. They are absolutely worth a shot at this price.

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West Virginia vs. Texas TechFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Texas TechFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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West Virginia (9-5) comes off a 74-69 win over TCU. Eron Harris scored 22 points, Juwan Staten added 15 in the win. Texas Tech (8-6) comes off a 62-73 loss to Iowa State. Jaye Crockett had 20 points and 11 rebounds and Dusty Hannahs added 16 points to lead the Red Raiders. Texas Tech looks to get back in the win column here I expect it to do so after a good showing versus a very tough Iowa State team. The Red Raiders are 7-3 SU and 5-1 ATS in home games this season. West Virginia is just 1-2 SU and ATS in true road games this season. Texas Tech won thriller on a last second put back the last time these teams during last season. Look for another close one but for the home to pull it out. Take Texas Tech.

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Auburn vs. Florida StFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 67FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Auburn and Florida State were both high scoring teams at 40 and 53 points scored respectfully. Their defenses were decent allowing a total of 34 points per game. In these games in the beginnings the offenses plan has the advantage as they have had a month to plan for the opposing defenses. I know the defenses have had the same, but only what they have seen not the new stuff ready to be put in. Look for the offenses to score early and often with a lull in the third before some adjustments in the 4th for some more scoring to push it over the total.

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Florida State-10½ over AuburnFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The SEC was a true power this entire season. The Conference has already produced six Bowl winners this season in eight attempts with the only two losers being Alabama and Georgia. Alabama was a 17-point choice over Oklahoma and Georgia was a nine-point favorite over Nebraska. The argument against Auburn is that many of their wins were deemed lucky and that argument has merit. Auburn ramped up the late-game drama down the stretch with a miraculous 73-yard tipped touchdown reception to beat Georgia and a 107-yard touchdown return of a missed field goal to stun Alabama, victories that pushed Auburn into the SEC title game and paved a path to the BCS. Take away those two wins and two or three others that they won by four points or less and this is an 8-4 football team. No one has been able to stop the Auburn ground game of late but in order to do so, you need two things to contain or stop it: time to prepare, and fast, athletic linebackers.
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Florida State has had five weeks to put together a defensive game plan and practice containing this unusual Auburn option offense. The Seminoles have quick and talented LBs in Terrance and Telvin Smith, plus DE Christian Jones provides an athletic defender on the edge. Florida State has been exceptional against the run for most of the season and we expect nothing less here. The Seminoles barely broke a sweat this entire season. They won their first three games by a combined score of 157-26 before defeating Boston College in Week 4 by 14 points. No team would come within 27 points of FSU the rest of the way. As a 5-point choice over Clemson, FSU buried them early and walked off with a 51-14 victory. As a 21-point choice over Miami, FSU whacked them by 27. FSU is loaded with future NFLers and we’re not talking about five or six of them. We’re talking about 20 or more. Even if Auburn is the toughest opponent that Florida State will face this season is it really going to matter? The Auburn defense is ranked 104th in the nation in pass defense. Five quarterbacks threw for more than 300 yards and two had more than 400 yards on this Tigers defense. Auburn needed a last-second score to beat Mississippi State and of course those two aforementioned miracles over Georgia and Alabama. They were also 14-point losers to LSU. In that game, the Tigers gave up 457 yards (228 rushing). The Tigers were out-gained in four games this season and barely out-gained their opponents in three other games. Well, the clock has struck midnight and this Cinderella or rag to riches story is about to come to an end in a big way.

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Dallas +102 over N.Y. ISLANDERSFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Islanders are coming off a 3-2 loss to the Hurricanes on Saturday night but prior to that they had reeled off three wins in a row over Boston, Minnesota and Chicago. They also had a recent 3-0 win over the Red Wings so overall the Islanders have won four of their past six. That’s nice but this team is far too risky as the chalk because their chances of losing to superior teams are far greater than their chances of winning. The Islanders have a slew of strong offensive players but they are weak defensively and they’re weak in net. Playing a hungry team from the superior West is not the right time to be sporting a tag with this home team.
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The Stars are not in a good mood. Dallas has lost two in a row and three of four. What’s most disturbing is that the Stars have allowed 11 goals against in their past two home games against Montreal and Detroit but trust us when we tell you it was not because of poor defense. Both Dan Ellis and Kari Lehtonen have been dreadful in net recently and that’s the only reason the Stars are losing games. Dallas outshot Detroit 45-27 on Saturday in a 5-21 loss and Dan Ellis was pulled after allowing three goals on five shots. The Stars recently played a near flawless game against St. Louis and lost 3-2 after allowing just 22 shots on net. Rarely does this team get outworked or outplayed and one of these two goaltenders is going to have to step up. Dallas is too good to keep losing games at this pace and if they get any type of adequate goaltending they are going to go on a serious run. The Stars embark on a three-game trip beginning here and they figure to play a strong game in the first contest of said trip. That should be more than enough to defeat this very beatable host.

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Villereal +126 over RAYO VALLECANOSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This is the first round of fixtures in La Liga in 2014 and for Monday’s betting preview we go to Rayo Vallecano, who host Villareal CF. The home side has been struggling all season long and are trapped in a desperate struggle for survival, having lost their last four games. Though Villareal hasn’t had the best of times before the Christmas break, you could see it was down to fatigue rather than lack of quality. We fully expect, after a winter break, that Villareal will return to the blistering form it opened the season with.
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Rayo has a poor record this season in La Liga. They sit in 19th position out of 20 and have had the most defeats in the league this season with 12. This is all whilst conceding 40 goals in 17 games, which is the most goals allowed in the league. What is even more concerning for the host is they can’t defeat this foe and that puts them at a distict psychological disadvantage right from start. Rayo has lost their last two games against the visiting side, both by 2-0 scores and it has only managed one win in its last eight matches against Villareal. Vallecano are desperate for points and being at home they won’t want to sit back and play for a tie. Combine that with Villareal’s tendency to play with two out and out strikers and it bodes well for an open game that also works in Villereal’s favor.

Jimmy Boyd

Brooklyn Nets -3

The Nets have looked like a rejuvenated team in their last two games. They have a very impressive road win over Oklahoma City to start the new year, and they are coming off a seven point win over Cleveland in their last outing. After an abysmal start to the season, combined with a few key injuries, the Nets were really down. In steps Deron Williams to pick up the slack and Brooklyn is once again a relevant team. Today they have the luxury of playing host to a Hawks team that is allowing 104.7 points per game on the road this season.

A big reason for Brooklyn's recent success has come from improved play on the defensive end of the court. The Nets have allowed 101.5 points per game on the season, but in their last five games they have held opponents to 97.2 points per game. The Hawks on the other hand have been trending in the wrong direction. Atlanta has put up 102.6 points per game on the season, but in their last five games they average 99.2 points, which includes an 84 point performance in their last outing. This is a small number for the Nets to be laying at home.