Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday January, 7

Ben Burns

Oklahoma City vs. Washington
Pick: Washington

After eking out a winner with Friday's complimentary selection on the Pistons, I didn't release any "free" plays over the weekend. I did win both my "premium" NBA picks though, while also going 8-0 with my football. So, although Saturday's college hoops didn't fare too well, it was certainly a nice way to spend the first weekend of 2013.

Today, I'll take a look at an "ugly underdog" which is getting a lot of points ...

The Thunder are one of the best teams in basketball. The Wizards are one of the worst. That said, I feel Washington is offering us some solid value here.

Obviously, OKC is the superior team. However, as noted, this is a very large number.

Both teams played yesterday. The Thunder played early in the afternoon, beating Toronto by double-digits. (Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka all still had to play 35 or more minutes.) The Wizards played later, getting blown out by Miami.

I successfully played against the Thunder the last time that they played the second of back-to-back games. They lost outright vs. Minnesota. They're now 2-3 ATS the last five times that they were in that situation.

A closer look reveals that the Thunder have only won by more than seven points once, the last six times that they played on the road, after playing the previous day/night. (That includes four games this season & two last spring.)

Meanwhile, the Wizards have quietly been very competitive, when playing the second of back-to-back games. In fact, they're 8-2 ATS their last 10 in that situation, including 2-0 ATS since Christmas. They've played the second of b2b games nine times this season and only one of those resulted in a loss of greater than nine points - and that was at Miami against a revenge-minded Heat team. (I backed the Heat in that one, as it was a tough spot for Washington.)

The Wizards are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 9.5 to 12 range, going 4-2 ATS their last six in that situation. During that stretch, they've also gone 12-7-1 ATS when playing a home game where the O/U line ranged from 190 to 194.5 points.

Getting 10.5 at the betting window, as they currently are here, the Wizards upset the Thunder last January. Consider grabbing the points.

Chris Elliott

Oklahoma City vs. Washington
Pick: Oklahoma City

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 9-4 on the road this season outscoring their opponents by +6.5 PPG in the process. Monday they take on a Wizards squad that is 3-13 at home while being outscored by an average margin of -4.9 PPG. The Thunder have won 2 of the last 3 games in Washington and are outscoring the Wizards by an average margin of +12 PPG. Take the Thunder ATS on the road.

The Thunder are 26-7 overall, coming off a solid 104-92 road victory at Toronto on Sunday. Toronto has been red hot, winning 8 of 10 games before running into the Thunder. The Thunder are 2-0 in their last 2 road games beating Houston by 30 and Toronto by 12. The Thunder offense has been a beast all season, ranking 2nd in the NBA scoring 105.6 PPG while the defense has been strong giving up 96.7 PPG to rank 11th. Overall the Thunder are outscoring their opponents by an average of +8.9 PPG on the season.
The Wizards are 4-28 overall and have lost 5 consecutive games by an average margin of -11.4 PPG. They are 1-13 in their last 14 games and have really missed the services of their top young PG John Wall. They have the worst ranked offense in the NBA scoring 89.5 PPG and don't have the defense to slow down the Thunder, ranking 15th overall giving up 97.1 PPG.

The Thunder have won 2 of the last 3 games in Washington and are outscoring the Wizards by an average margin of +12 PPG. Take the Thunder ATS on the road.

Jesse Schule

Cleveland vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago

The Bulls were embarrassed on their home court by the Bobcats exactly one week ago today, but have since gone out and won back to back games on the road. After defeating the Magic in Orlando on Wednesday, and then upsetting the Heat in Miami on Friday, Chicago had the weekend off.

No such luck for the Cavs, Cleveland played on Friday and Saturday, and tonight's game in Chicago will be their third game in four nights. The Cavs have just one win in their last five games, and that came against the Bobcats by a score of 106-104.

The Bulls have won three of four, and they haven't allowed an opponent to score 100 points in any of those four games. That should come as no surprise, as Chicago ranks 3rd in the NBA in points allowed, with an average of 91 points per game. The Bulls struggled offensively in their last two home games, shooting just 34.4% from the field, but they improved on the road, shooting 45.9% in wins over Miami and Orlando.

Carlos Boozer was feeling a hot hand, hitting 25-of-39 for 58 points while adding 23 boards over those two games. "We haven't been playing great basketball and this is probably our biggest win of the year against the defending champs," Joakim Noah said after the 96-89 win over Miami. "It feels good."

Noah missed the previous game in Orlando with the flu, but he looked healthy against the heat, scoring 13 points and adding 12 rebounds.

Cleveland's Kyrie Irving didn't have a great game in a loss to Houston on Saturday, committing a career-high eight turnovers. "I take full responsibility," said Irving, who turned the ball over three times in the fourth quarter. "That's the difference in the game right there."

The Cavs are also without the NBA's leading rebounder Anderson Varejao for at least one more game, and that isn't going to help matters against Chicago.

The Bulls have won nine consecutive head to head meetings between these two teams, and they have covered the points in each of the last six.

Take the Bulls as the home favorite.

David Chan

Cleveland vs. Chicago
Pick: Under

Cleveland is 8-27 SU and 15-20 ATS. The O/U is 19-16. It's coming off a 112-104 setback to Houston on the 5th, the total sailing above the posted number of 213 in that one. Rookie Kyrie Irving committed eight turnovers in the setback: "I take full responsibility,'' assessed Irving after. "That's the difference in the game right there.''

Keep your eyes on Tristan Thompson who finished with 14 points and 16 boards on Saturday.

Chicago is 18-13 SU and 11-20 ATS. The O/U is 11-20. It's coming off back to back wins including a 96-89 victory at Miami on the 4th, the total staying below the posted number of 189.5 in that one.

This is an important game for the Bulls as they look to keep the momentum rolling, and break a two game slide in front of the home town crowd.

That may be easier said than done though, as Chicago has shot just 34.4% combined over its past two games at home.

Regardless, the Bulls continue to fight and produce positive results with their Super Star Derrick Rose sidelined; note that they've averaged 24.5 free-throw attempts over their last two contests, compared to just 16 on average over their previous four.

And that's bad news for the Cavs, as they're allowing the opposition to get to the line 25.3 times per contest, and have given up an average of 31.5 attempts over their last four.

Note that when these teams last played against each other, Chicago won 95-85 in Cleveland back on December 5th, the total staying below the posted number of 184 in that one.

And while it's true that the Cavs have reached the 100 point plateau in three of their last four, Chicago has in fact limited them to just 83 points on 37.4% shooting over the past nine in the series.

All signs seem to be pointing to another low-scoring affair!

Bruce Marshall

Dallas vs. Utah
Pick: Utah

The Dirk Nowitzki dividend has yet to pay off for Dallas, as adjustment period to Nowitzki’s recent return from injury (and Dirk still getting familiar to the new faces on roster) is lingering a lot longer than HC Rick Carlisle expected. The Mavs have now lost SU in 6 of Nowitzki’s first 7 games thru Jan. 6. Now Dirk has returned to starting lineup after coming off bench in early games following activation, but there was no change in Dallas’ sinking fortunes when losing to lowly Hornets last Saturday. Nowitzki has admittedly looked rusty, and must also note that Mavs were clobbered by 19 the last time they trekked to Salt Lake City back on Halloween, a night in which Jazz owned the boards by 61-40 count. In fact, Dallas has lost 11 of last 13 SU prior to tonight's test in Salt Lake City.

Jimmy Boyd

Illinois Chicago -2.5

Illinois-Chicago is the superior team and shouldn't have any problems taking care of Cleveland State tonight. The Vikings are 8-7 on the year but have faced a cupcake schedule with wins over Alabama-Huntsville, Notre Dame-OH, and Rio Grande. They haven't beat a division I opponent since back on 12/1 when they took down Toledo.

Illinois-Chicago came out guns blazing, covering 8 games in a row after their opener. They played a good New Mexico team tough and blew out their easier opponents. Couple that with the fact that they were blown out twice last year by the Vikings and I think you'll see the Flames put the pedal to the metal here tonight.

Kyle Hunter

Cavaliers vs. Bulls
Play: Under 186½

The Chicago Bulls have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA several years in a row. They slacked off a little defensively earlier this year, but they are back to playing tremendous defense of late. Cleveland isn't a very good offensive team, and I think the Bulls will shut them down pretty easily. Chicago's offense is still struggling without Derrick Rose in the line up. The under is 19-7 in the Bulls last 26 home games. Take the under.

Ray Monohan

Sacramento +5

Normally Memphis can overpower teams up front with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. That will be a challenge when they face Sacramento and DeMarcus Cousins who about the baddest dude in the NBA these days. He is good too, since coming back from suspension he has had a double-double in 6 straight including a triple-double against the Celtics. He and Jason Thompson have the size and game to bother those two. I would love it if Tyreke Evans were back but the Kings have been mixing and matching in the backcourt successfully lately, they are 6-4 in their last 10 and probably playing their best ball of the season. This is their first game home after a ‘NorEaster’ and they are much better at home too.

Rob Vinciletti

Illinois Chicago -2½

ILL-Chic has better numbers in this on e+ Blowout Home loss revenge. They are 16-7 ats as a road favorite of 3 or less and have covered 6 of 7 after allowing 60 or less points. They have won 5 of 6 with 4 spread wins as a favorite this seasons and are ranked 64 in the RPI. Cleveland St is ranked 187 in the RPI and is 0-7 straight up and to the spread as a dog this season. They have lost all 6 times vs teams ranked better than 200 in the RPI. Look for Illinois Chicago to win and cover.

Dave Cokin

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets
Pick: San Antonio Spurs

There's basically no such thing as value when playing San Antonio. The numbers on the Spurs are usually tilted a bit simply due to their popularity with bettors. That doesn't matter very often, as the Spurs just roll merrily along, winning by margins and cashing tickets for their backers. San Antonio is a stellar 22-13-1 ATS this season despite constantly being a little overpriced. As for New Orleans, the Hornets have been pretty bad when playing off a win, particularly at home with a slate that reads 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS. That's good enough for me, and I'll side with the Spurs minus the points.

Jim Feist

Grizzlies at Kings
Pick: Under

The Memphis Grizzlies aren't the league's top defensive scoring club in the NBA for anything. After allowing over 100 points in the opening game of the season, the Grizzlies have only allowed one team to eclipse the century mark since. The Grizzlies hold opponents to just 89.7 ppg and are coming off a win Sunday at Phoenix, 92-81. But what I like even more about the UNDER in tonight's contest is that the Grizzlies are playing the second of a back-to-back spot. This will slow the club down even more and have them relying on their stingy defense. The Kings return home after a long road trip and that could cause the Kings to sputter a bit on offense also, especially against a tough defensive club like Memphis. Don't expect many points in this contest, take the UNDER.

SPORTS WAGERS

Notre Dame +9½ over Alabama

The first thing to note here is the total, which opened at 41 and has been bet down slightly to its current 40½. Spotting 9½ points with a total that low does not go together and it’s certainly not difficult to make a case for the under. Both these offenses like to run first and pass second. They both like to work the clock with long, sustained drives and both rarely turn the ball over.

The Irish have a freshman quarterback and rank a mere 75th nationally in scoring offense so the next obvious question is, “where are their points going to come from”? Not to worry. Notre Dame has played a far tougher slate of opposing defenses than Alabama has faced. This is a much better offense than the surface stats suggest, with a strong offensive line and plenty of talent at the skill positions. Most importantly, the underdog also boasts an elite offensive coaching staff with plenty of time to prepare. Notre Dame will have a good plan, will not beat itself, and will find a way to manufacture yards, opportunities and enough points to make this a four-quarter game.

Notre Dame's red zone offense and special teams are going to have to be more efficient. ‘Bama also has the advantage of having been here before. Still, the question is not whether Alabama is going to get outcoached but whether the Tide can overcome it. This one really is a bigger toss-up that most think and could come right down to the wire. The 9½ points being offered gives us plenty of room for a cover.

Notre Dame +4 over CINCINNATI

The Bearcats three-guard tandem is potentially potent and Cinci is always tough at home but this is just a little too much weight to be given to a Notre Dame team that has an equal chance of winning.

Coach Mike Brey’s group of Irish knows how to play and adjust to any style. Brey has Jack Cooley, one of the most productive and efficient big men in the country and an outstanding guard duo in Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant. Scott Martin does a bit of everything, and Garrick Sherman provides size. Notre Dame can handle, pass and shoot from almost every spot on the floor. It has a top-10-rated offense and limits fouling and free throws to opponents. This a 13-1 Notre Dame club that has one OT loss this year facing a Bearcats offense that has suddenly gone cold.

JR O'Donnell

Hofstra +4.5

CAA league opener as we will roll with the Hofstra Pride @ home..... 73.3% 11-4 last 15 All Sports Plays and a fat 3* loser last night with the Ore State Beavers...grrrrrrrrrrr .. You are going to say.. "How can you play a 3-10 ball club with the Pride Jr O??? We note that the 5-9 Geo State Panthers are a different animal on the road.... 1-5 ats last 6 roadies & 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games..... Hofstra's guard Stevie Melia has a great motor and leads a hungry bunch of ball players here @ home tonight gang.... #'s punch in @ huge edges on the glass and bench.... Power Rated by our camp @ dead even a pickem.

Prediction Machine

Alabama -9 vs. Notre Dame (Covers 56.6%)

Notre Dame absolutely deserves to be ranked #1 in the BCS and to be playing in this game. The Irish played a top 30 schedule in FBS this season and won every game. However, that does not mean that Notre Dame is the best team in the country or would be favored over every other team nationally on a neutral field. In fact, at best, Notre Dame is the fifth best team in the nation and, according to our projections, on a neutral field, would be an underdog to at least four teams in the SEC (Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia and Florida).

Alabama, on the other hand, may have lost a game (at home even) and actually played an easier overall schedule than Notre Dame (#35 in FBS), but the Crimson Tide have the best team in the nation and deserves to be favored in this matchup for the BCS National Championship.

On the season, Alabama is 12-1 straight-up and 6-6 against-the-spread. Of those six ATS losses, four came at home and three were as 31+ point favorites in games that were not close. Outside of Tuscaloosa, the team is 6-0 straight-up and 4-2 ATS, with blowout wins over Michigan, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee and narrow victories over LSU and Georgia (the OVER is also 4-2 in those games). In our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics, Alabama ranks in the top five in all four core facets of the game - pass offense (fourth), run offense (second), pass defense (fifth) and run defense (first).

More specifically, junior quarterback A.J. McCarron ranks third in FBS in yards-per-pass (9.3) and second in touchdowns-per-attempt (.09), while averaging 3.3 MORE yards-per-attempt than opponents. On the ground, with a combination of Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon and an offensive line that dominated the SEC Championship game and may be the best that college football has seen in the last decade, Alabama ranked third in the nation with 5.6 yards-per-rush and rushed for 3.1 MORE yards-per-carry than opponents. The Tide also committed the fourth fewest penalties-per-game (3.8). The team runs the ball 61.9% of the time. Alabama's kickers are 15-of-20 on the season (with all misses coming from greater than 40 yards). A blocked field goal returned for a touchdown figured strongly in Georgia's cover (though still a loss straight-up) over Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Do not expect that to happen again.

While Notre Dame's profile is strong, it cannot match that. The Irish are 12-0 straight-up and 7-5 ATS. Away from home, Notre Dame went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with two outright victories as an underdog - at Michigan State (+6) and at Oklahoma (+10) while the OVER was just 1-4 in those games. Defensively, this team is as nearly as good as Alabama. The Irish rank second in overall defense in our metrics and are third against the pass and 12th against the run. Offensively, there have been some struggles and uncertainty at the quarterback position, but this is still a top 15 passing (#15) and running (#8) squad as presently constructed (especially with sophomore quarterback Everett Golson's maturation into an adequate playmaker down the stretch).

Digging deeper into the numbers, Notre Dame ranked just above the national passing average (of 7.3) in yards-per-attempt (7.5) and just below in touchdowns-per-attempt (0.04 as compared to 0.05) and completion percentage (58.2% as compared to 60.5%). The Irish still averaged 1.7 more yards-per-attempt than their opponents in the passing game. The run offense averaged 5.0 yards-per-carry and 1.8 more yards-per-carry than opponents. Notre Dame commits 5.7 penalties-per-game and runs the ball 57% of the time. Lastly, Notre Dame field goal kickers are 23-of-31 on the season.

And then we get to the time off in preparation for this game... Nick Saban already has three national championships and is 5-3 ATS as a favorite in bowl games. Brian Kelly is 1-4 all-time ATS in bowl games and lost his only appearance in a BCS bowl with Cincinnati to Virginia Tech, 20-7, in the 2009 Orange Bowl (his undefeated Bearcats were destroyed in the 2010 Sugar Bowl by Florida after Kelly left for Notre Dame). These records and experiences do not reflect why we are picking this way, but they certainly do not hurt the argument. With the time off, it does not appear as though injuries to either side will play a role.

Playing very similar styles and with similar strengths, Alabama is the more dominant team and a team without a major weakness. The SEC has won six consecutive BCS National Championship games - five of which came by double-digits. Look for a seventh consecutive title and another resounding victory for the conference. In 50,000 simulations of the BCS Championship Game, Alabama wins 70.2% of the time and by an average score of 29.1-16.3. As nine point favorites, Alabama covers the spread 56.6% of the time, which would warrant a $44 wager from a normal $50 player. With a total line at 42 and 45 points expected, the OVER covers at a similar percentage of 55.6% and would justify a $34 wager.