AAA Sports
Alabama / Notre Dame Over 41
It's time to get this one now with it being at the Key Number of 41. We might see a drop to 40.5 but eventually it will climb back up. I am not waiting to see. We think of Alabama as a great defensive team and they are no doubt. Certainly Notre Dame has been on their D game this year with both teams being #1 and #2 in that category this year. That is clearly why we are seeing this low number. However, I am not sold on the fact that the Irish can stop the Bama Offense which has been putting up Big Numbers this year and most recently a heck of a lot of them. I guess you can certainly see where I am leaning on the side and I personally have included Bama in a couple of Moneyline Parlays, both front ends already winning. The likelihood of at least one D score here in this contest and the likelihood of an Irish Team making some 2nd Half Boo Boo's as well. It's not going to take much to get this favorable number. Mine is 47.1 and that is moving through a lot of Key Numbers.
John Ryan
Magic at Trail Blazers
Prediction: Under
The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 188 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-1 UNDER mark for 77% winners since 2006. Play Under with all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points after one or more consecutive overs and now facing an opponent after 5 or more consecutive overs. Sim shows a high probability that Orlando will make 32 to 38% of their three-point shot attempts. In past games, the Magic are 13-4 UNDER in road games when they make 32% to 38% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 2 seasons. other projections include that Orlando is 15-5 UNDER in road games when they grab 10 to 15 offensive rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons and Portland is 27-13 UNDER (+12.7 Units) when they grab 48 to 52 rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons. take the UNDER.
Matt Fargo
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings
It took a while for this line to come out because of the status of Tyreke Evans for Sacramento who has missed his last 11 and a half games. He has been upgraded to probably which will be a huge boost for the Kings and while his potential return may give the Kings a lift, a rejuvenated and newly focused DeMarcus Cousins has been a big asset. He has averaged 20.8 ppg and 13.5 rpg in six games since missing two games because of a suspension. Overall the Kings are 6-4 over their last 10 games which is easily their best stretch of the season and back home after a 2-2 roadtrip should have them even more energized. Memphis meanwhile is coming off a win at Phoenix last night but the Grizzlies have not been playing well after a great start to the season. After opening 14-3, the Grizzlies are just 7-7 over their last 14 games and inconsistency on offense has been one of the problems. Memphis has played down to the opposition quite a bit as the Grizzlies are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a losing record while going 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Meanwhile Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss while going 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. This is yet another great spot for the Kings to pull an upset at home as they have won five of their 10 games outright as home underdogs.
Jack Jones
Portland Trail Blazers -6.5
The Portland Trail Blazers have quietly been one of the hottest teams in the league of late. They should be a much bigger favorite over the struggling Orlando Magic tonight because of it.
Portland has won 10 of its last 13 games overall to get to 18-15 on the season and firmly in the Western Conference playoffs if the season were to end today. What's most impressive about this run is the fact that it has road wins over New York, Memphis and Minnesota in three of its last four games.
While the Blazers are rolling, the Magic are stuck in reverse. They have lost eight straight while going 2-6 ATS in the process. They just blew a big lead against New York on Saturday before falling 106-114 at home. What's even worse about their 8-game losing streak is the fact that they have played just two road games during it, falling at Toronto and at Washington.
A big reason for Orlando's struggles is its health. Glen Davis has missed the last nine games with a shoulder injury, and the Magic are just 1-8 in those games. He is second on the team in scoring (16.0 PPG) and rebounding (7.9 RPG). The infectious energy he brings this team cannot be replaced.
Portland is 11-4 at home this season, while Orlando is just 5-9 on the road. The Magic are 16-39 ATS in their last 55 games following two or more consecutive home losses. Orlando is 8-17-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. NBA Northwest division opponents. Portland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. Bet the Blazers Monday.
Jeff Alexander
Notre Dame +4
Cincinnati is a poor 4-13 ATS as a home favorite or pickem over the last 2 seasons. The Bearcats are also 21-42 ATS all-time as a home favorite or pickem under Coach Cronin. They are 3-13 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points under Cronin. Take the Fighting Irish.
Dave Price
San Antonio Spurs -8
New Orleans is just 3-13 SU and 5-11 ATS at home this season. It checks in off a win and cover at Dallas but is 0-9 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season and has lost these contests by an average of 11.6 points. The Hornets are also 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. The Spurs enter off a double-digit win against Philadelphia and are 22-6-2 ATS in their last 30 games following a win of more than 10 points. They are 62-29-5 ATS in their last 96 games overall. Lay the points.
Steve Janus
Portland Trailblazers -6.5
The Magic enter tonight's game on a 8-game losing streak and I have a very difficult time believing they will be excited to play after traveling completely across the country. The key here is that Orlando is coming off three straight big conference games at home against the Heat, Bulls and Knicks. They simply aren't going to have the same level of intensity against the Trailblazers. Orlando is 16-39 off 2 or more consecutive home losses since 1996!
Portland on the other hand is flying a bit under the radar because of their poor start. The Trailblazers are 10-3 over their last 13 games overall. They are coming off back-to-back road wins over Memphis and Minnesota to finish up their 4-game road trip at 3-1 (other win came at New York). Portland always brings their best at home, where they have won 7 straight and are 11-4 on the season.
Brandon Lee
Dallas Mavericks +5.5
Dallas certainly doesn't appear to be a strong play today, but this line is almost begging you to take the Jazz at home, where everyone knows they play their best basketball. The Mavericks could very easily be on a 3-game winning streak, as each of their last two losses have came in overtime. Dallas is 32-15 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons and it's only a matter of time before Nowitzki has them playing winning basketball. This isn't my strongest play, but I think it's worth a little action on the side. Take the Points!
Charlie Sports
Orlando Magic at Portland Trailblazers
Play: Portland Trailblazers
The (12-21) Orlando Magic of the Eastern Conference Southeast division will take on the (18-15) Portland Trailblazers of the Western Conference Northwest division in 2013 NBA action. Orlando beat Portland back in November 107-104 at home, but have dropped 3 of the last 4 vs. Portland Against The Spread. The Magic have lost their last 2 NBA games ATS on the road, while Portland is 4-0 their last 4 ATS a home. Portland gets the home cover.
Wunderdog
San Antonio at New Orleans
Pick: San Antonio -8
Over the years the San Antonio Spurs have been a great team, but more importantly and unlike many elite teams, they seldom take a night off. It is one reason why they are 253-212-7 ATS as a road favorite. That improves in the most vulnerable spot, when they take to the road against a losing team. While most teams mail those games in, the Spurs step it up and take advantage of the situation. San Antonio is 162-117-4 ATS as road chalk vs. a losing team, including 13-2-1 ATS lately in their last 16. The Hornets are a bad team that is playing bad, with just three wins in their last 17 games and are a woeful 1-10 ATS following an ATS win in their last 11 tries. Not the typical place for the Spurs to get tripped up. Play on San Antonio.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
HOFSTRA +5 over Georgia State: Neither team is playing all that well right now, but I believe that Hofstra is due for a win. Actually tis year Hofstra was picked higher that Georgia State in the Colonial by some. The Flying Dutchmen have been competitive of late as 4 of their last 5 losses have been by single digits. They are 3-3 on their home floor, while Georgia State is just 1-5 on the road. The Panthers have been outscored by 8 ppg on the road and are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games away from home. Hofstra may allow 70.2 ppg at home, but teams don't shoot well vs them here (421.2%), while the Panthers have allowed 68.3 ppg on 45.8% shooting away from home. I feel that at home Hofstra has a solid defensive edge and the home crowd should be up for them to break their losing streak. Look fo Hofstra to pull the outright upset.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Notre Dame/ Cincinnati Over 134.5: Both teams have played solid defense this year, but the offenses have been very imp3essive as well. Notre dame has played an uptempo style of late and it has resulted in 84.6 ppg over their last 5 games. Because of that pace they have also given up 65.6 ppg and that's vs weaker offenses than they will see tonight. The Irish are shooting the ball extremely well right now as they have hit 56% of their shots overall and 45.8% from downtown in their last 5 games. Cincy is not a great shooting team (42.8%), but they play at an uptempo and as a result they score 75.6 ppg. Cincinnati is 5th in the nation in shots per game at 64.2, while the Irish have put up 62 spg in their last 3. Should be a fun uptempo game that should lead to about 140 points.
Indiana/ Penn State Under 138: 9 of the last 10 in the series have gone Under the total. All 9 that went under put no more than 133 points on the board. State should be able to slow it down at home and give us a game in the 120's.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma City/ Washington Over 193: Washington is having problems scoring right now, but they still score 93.8 ppg and the Thunder allows 96.8 ppg on the road. Gotta feel that Washington should be good for about 93 points in this one. Washington has struggled on defense at home, where they have allowed 98.7 ppg on their home floor this year. Last night they allowed 99 points to Miami, but they face a tough offense tonight as the Thunder come in averaging 102.6 ppg on the road and they have averaged 108.8 in their last 5 games overall. 105-93 sounds about right for his one.
Orlando/ Portland Under 191.5: Recent Orlando games would indicate a high scoring game, but I will go the other way here. In their last 3 games the Magic put up 106 points vs NY and 10 in OT vs Miami, but in 7 of their last 9 games they have averaged just 92.3 ppg. On the road this year the magic have averaged just 91.4 ppg, so this is not a god offensive team. The Portland offense comes in struggling as they have averaged just 92.2 ppg in their last 5 games, but their defense has not struggled in that span as they have allowed just 93.6 ppg in those 5 games. At Home Portland has allowed 96.1 ppg, but they have been much better at home recently. In their last 7 at home they have allowed just 88.6 ppg and that includes allowing just 93 to Denver and 90 to high scoring San Antonio. Both offenses struggled to score and Portland has played very good defense of late. I see this one in the low 180's.
2 UNIT PLAY
Memphis/ Sacramento Under 189: Wanted this as a top play, but didn't want to push my luck with a Memphis team that I have done well on totals with.
Harry Bondi
CHICAGO (-8.5) over Cleveland
We catch the Bulls is a nice little streak here tonight as they are playing as well as they have all season, winning three out of their last four. They are also starting to turn up the heat on the defensive end and that spells bad news for the Cavs, who will once again be without Anderson Varejao, the league's leading rebounder, tonight. Chicago has dominated the series, winning night straight and covering six of those meetings. It's a good situation for Chicago and a bad match-up for the Cavs. Lay the points.
Nelly
Penn State + over Indiana
Indiana certainly has the pieces to be a top 10 team this season but the results so far don't necessarily agree. The lone loss did come in overtime but it came against Butler, a team that didn't make the NCAA tournament last season and that Indiana should have some advantages against. The big wins for Indiana, beating Georgetown and North Carolina, look much better in name than in practice as neither former power looks elite this season. In the Big Ten opener Indiana won by four in a down-to-the-wire game at Iowa and the Hoosiers will be facing a second straight road game while also possibly looking ahead to a huge top 10 game with Minnesota upcoming. Penn State is 7-1 at home this season and the Nittany Lions played well in a tough venue on Thursday, hanging with Wisconsin. Even without Tim Frazier Penn State has excellent guard play with Jermaine Marshall stepping up this season and Southern Miss transfer D.J. Newbill being one of the more dynamic athletes in the Big Ten. Penn State will have some problems in the paint in this match-up but the Lions are holding foes to just 40 percent shooting on the season. Indiana's last game was the very first true road game of the season for the Hoosiers and while this is a veteran team, this is also a team that is not accustomed to playing in the heavy favorite role and getting strong focused efforts from the opponents looking for an upset. Indiana's last trip to Penn State featured just a six-point win and this spread looks too steep.
Scott Delaney
My free pick run is at 66-40-2 thanks to a three-day run since Friday, and tonight I look to make it four in a row with Cincinnati in college hoops against Notre Dame. Forget the distracting factor of the Fighting Irish wondering about their classmates on the football field down in Miami, playing for the BCS title. Understand, Cincinnati is real deal and should be respected as one of the top choices in the Big East this season.
Yes, the Irish are in after winning their 11th consecutive game of the season on Saturday, posting a 93-74 win over Seton Hall in their Big East opener. But I think it's even more intriguing to talk about Cincinnati coming into this game after a 53-52 home loss to St. John's on Saturday in the Bearcats' league home opener.
Cincinnati is going to be pissed off, cause it knows damn well it shouldn't have lost that game. Not to St. John's. And not at home.
If there were ever a time to play the Bearcats, it's tonight. Especially here.
The Bearcats won last season's meeting 71-55 at Cincinnati's Fifth Third Arena. And though Notre Dame leads the series overall 8-5, be aware Cincinnati has won the last three games in the Queen City.
Cashmere Wright remains one of my favorite players in college basketball, and the 14th-ranked Bearcats will continue to be one of my favorite teams to watch under the guidance of spitfire coach Mick Cronin.
The Bearcats have won nine of their last 12 games against ranked opponents, so I'm not concerned too much about surging No. 21 Notre Dame. Look for the Bearcats to clamp down on defense, just as we've seen them do through 15 games this season, limiting opponents to only 35.7 percent shooting from the field - second in the Big East and eighth in the nation.
The Bearcats are deadly off a loss, covering four straight after losing on the hardwood and covering six of seven after an ATS setback. They're also on a 7-2 ATS run against the Big East. Lay the chalk in this one.
5♦ CINCINNATI