Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, January 9

David Chan

Capitals @ Kings
PICK: Over

The 21-16-2 Washington Capitals storm into LA to take on the 20-15-7 Kings.

The Capitals play with "revenge" here after losing 4-1 at home back on December 2nd.

Washington will also be looking to atone for a lacklustre 5-2 setback at San Jose on Saturday:

“We didn’t take care of the puck enough,” new goaltender Tomas Vokoun said. “When you give up a goal like that in the third, right after we tie it, it’s tough.”

Joel Ward and Dennis Wideman scored for the Capitals; Alexander Ovechkin's seven-game point streak was snapped.

The Kings will also be looking to get back into the win column after a brutal 1-0 loss to the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets in front of the home town crowd on Saturday.

It wasn't from a lack of trying though as LA had 31-shots.

LA has in fact averaged 34.6 shots on net over its last 16 games.

Goaltender Jonathan Quick had 17-saves:

“We’re pressing. You could tell later on in the game that we’re pressing,” center Jarret Stoll said. “They were blocking everything. Probably three-quarters of our shots didn’t even make it to the net, but you’ve got to find different ways.”

Both teams will push the pace of this contest; expect the total to sneak above the posted number!

Nick Parsons

Vancouver Canucks @ Florida Panthers
PICK: Vancouver Canucks

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors:

The Canucks are 26-13-0-3; they're coming off a 4-3 win at Boston on Saturday.

Roberto Luongo has been on fire, going 10-2-2 with a 1.76 GAA with two shutouts over 14 starts since coming back from injury in early December.

He's dominated his old team, going 3-0-1 with a 1.68 GAA, including a 31-save shut-out performance last Feb. 11th, 2010.

On the other bench: The Panthers are 20-13-4-4; they're coming off back to back losses including a 5-2 setback at New Jersey on Friday.

With Jose Theodore on the sidelines with injury, backups Scott Clemmensen and Jacob Markstrom have split duties, but neither has gotten much offensive help (note that Kris Verteeg has gone four-games without a point).

Bottom line: For me this play is simple; Luongo had the game off in Boston, and comes into this contest well rested.

Florida is down to its backups in net, and is struggling in every facet of the offensive game.

When coupled with what I believe is a very favorable line, it all adds up to a 1-unit wager on the Vancouver Canucks!

Dave Cokin

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State

Tough spot for the Sooners, who aren't real good and are leveling off after a surprising start to the season. Oklahoma State is not especially loaded either, but the Cowboys are very tough at home and I'll give them the nod to get this edition of "Bedlam" on their side of the ledger.

Jim Feist

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma

Even though this game is a Big 12 Conference play, it holds more meaning than a regular conference game for these two schools. Bragging rights and even recruiting rights are on the line when these intra-state rivals matchup. Lon Kruger took over the helm at Oklahoma after a long stint at UNLV. Kruger has been a winner at every program he has headed. Though Kruger might be a bit disappointed with his Sooners of late. The Sooners started the season winning nine of their first 10 games. However, OU has gone on to lose three of four games including a bad 0-2 start in the Big 12. And if losing wasn't bad enough, OU has been embarrassed the last two games, losing by 38 points at Missouri and then 11 points at home to Kansas. HC Travis Ford has little returning this year at Oklahoma State with just two starters from last year's squad on the roster. Lots of hopes rest on freshman forward LeBryan Hash, one of the nation's top recruits. So far the results have been mediocre at best of OSU, going 8-7 for the season and 1-1 in conference. The Cowboys haven't been too good at covering spreads either, especially at home where they are 1-5 ATS on the year. I find it a bit difficult that the Cowboys are favored here on Monday. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Sooners are favored at tip-off. Kruger will get his team back on track and against a very inexperienced club in OSU, I'll take Kruger's experience and strong group of players. Take the short points if you can still get them here on Monday with the Sooners

Rob Vinciletti

Indiana Pacers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers -4

Philly fits a solid system fits a sound system here tonight that plays on home teams off a 28 or more point win provided they are not -9 or more or coming off a prior loss as a home dog of 8 or more. This system is 54-23 long term. The Sixers come off a solid blowout win over Toronto in a game where they allowed just 62 points. They are 14-6 ats after allowing 85 or less and have covered 6 of their 7 games. Look for them to get the win and cover vs the Pacers tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

Alabama -2½ over LSU

It's hard to argue that these two aren't the two best teams in the country, especially when talking about Nick Saban's Crimson Tide. College football hasn't seen a defense like the Tide's in a long, long time and may never see it again. Alabama's “D” finished first in the nation in total defense, yards per play, pass efficiency defense, a slew of other statistical categories and it doesn't stop there. The Tide also has an outstanding offensive line and two outstanding backs in Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy with Richardson possibly being the best player in the game. Of course the game is Louisiana's Super Dome and one has to consider the “home-field” advantage for the Tigers, not to mention that they're an outstanding team too. They play great defense, they certainly have an edge on special teams and Les Miles has proven to be better in big games than Nick Saban. Still, 'Bama is even better, with advantages on defense, at the line of scrimmage and in the running game. Sure, LSU beat the Tide two months ago (9-6) but Alabama was the better team then and they're the better team now. LSU is in the unenviable spot of having to prove something it already proved. It's just so tough to beat a team of this quality twice within a short period of time, as everything has to go right for you to do so. Everything went right for the Tigers in early November but don't expect it to happen again, as the Crimson Tide will not squander this chance. Play: Alabama -2½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

Dr. Bob

I lean with Alabama slightly and with the under in tonight's game.

It's been a good bowl season, as all Best Bets, Strong Opinions and leans are a combined 27-14-2. I was 4-2 on my Bowl Best Bets for +1.3 Stars but it's pretty fair to say that I should be 6-0, or at the very least 5-1 given how unlikely the endings were in my two losses. I am 5-7 on my Bowl Strong Opinions (4-5 sides, 1-2 totals) and my Bowl leans are 18-5-2 (6-4-2 on sides and 12-1 on totals).

I know it's been an overall frustrating season, but it's tough to make a profit when my Best Bets were -21 in fumble margin in the regular season. In fact, it's actually an accomplishment to be a game over .500 on my Best Bets this season (and profitable on my futures bets again) with the -21 in fumbles, which is by far the worst season of fumble variance I've ever had. I feel my handicapping this season was actually better than my 57% long term average in college, but there are some seasons when my record is worse than it should be and some years when my record is better than it should be. This was a season of huge negative variance and it's unlikely that next season will be as unlucky - so I hope you'll keep the faith and be back for what is likely to be a very profitable 2012 College season.

Alabama Futures Bet

Those that signed up before the season started showed a profit in my futures bets (+6.1 Stars so far) and I have 1.5 Stars at +450 odds to win the BCS Championship game. I have decided not to hedge that bet, as I lean slightly with Alabama in this game and I believe that hedging is only worthwhile if the hedge is a bet that has a positive return on investment, which I don't think is the case in this game. If you are risk averse there is certainly nothing wrong with hedging your bet by playing LSU in this game but that's not what I'm doing. I'm Rolling with the Tide.

Opinion - Alabama (-2.0) 20 LSU 17

Some people didn’t think that Alabama deserved to be in this game given that the Crimson Tide didn’t even win their own conference, but there is no doubt that these are the best two teams in the nation and the fact that Bama is favored is certainly a strong indication that they deserve to be here. Alabama lost the regular season meeting 6-9 in overtime despite out-playing the Tigers from the line of scrimmage and I think they’ll get their revenge in this game despite the fact that LSU is a better team now than they were back in early November.

Alabama’s offense put up impressive numbers this season, averaging 6.6 yards per play against Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team and the Tide were 1.5 yppl better than average with quarterback A.J. McCarron under center. McCarron had a very efficient season throwing the football, as he averaged 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback) while throwing only 5 interceptions the entire season. McCarron was also just as good, on a relative basis, against better defensive teams as he was overall and the 6.2 yppp he averaged against LSU is actually the 2nd highest average that LSU allowed all season (West Virginia averaged 7.1 yppp against the Tigers). Alabama’s rushing attack, led by Trent Richardson (1583 yards at 6.0 ypr with 20 TD runs) and Eddie Lacy (631 yards at 7.5 ypr), averaged 6.2 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team. However, the Tide rolled up huge rushing numbers in two games against horrible run defenses (367 yards at 13.1 yprp against North Texas and 409 yards at 10.8 yprp against Ole’ Miss), which skewed their average. In 6 games against teams with a better than average run defense (Kent State, Penn State, Florida, Vanderbilt, LSU, and Miss State) Alabama was just 0.8 yprp better than average (4.9 yprp against teams that would allow 4.1 yprp) and their median offense run rating was +0.7 yprp. So, Alabama’s rushing attack actually isn’t nearly as good as their season rating of +1.5 yprp and the Tide ran for just 3.5 yprp at home against LSU. Alabama was 1.5 yards per play better than average for the season with McCarron under center, but I rate the Crimson Tide attack at 1.1 yppl better than average after adjusting for their two off the charts rushing games against bad defensive teams that skewed their season average.

LSU’s defense finished 2nd to Alabama’s defense in my ratings, as the Tigers yielded just 4.1 yards per play to a schedule of 1A teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense. LSU faced 4 very good offensive teams and the Tigers were just as effective defensively against those good offensive teams – holding Oregon, West Virginia, Alabama, and Arkansas to 5.1 yppl, which is 1.8 yppl better than those 4 teams would combine to average against an normal defensive team. My math model projects 312 yards at 4.9 yppl for Alabama in this game.

LSU’s offense started the season with Jarrett Lee at the controls due to the suspension of starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson and Lee did a very good job in the passing game while the Tigers were mediocre running the ball. The rushing attack emerged once Jefferson started getting time at quarterback midway through the season and LSU has averaged 256 yards running at 6.3 yards per rushing play over the last 7 games with Jefferson running some option and young backs Blue and Hilliard (combined for 859 yards at 6.4 ypr) taking carries away from Spencer Ware, who averaged just 4.0 ypr this season. LSU was 0.9 yard per rushing play better than average for the season but they’ve been 1.6 yprp better than average with Jefferson at quarterback. Jefferson’s passing hasn’t been as good as Lee’s passing numbers, but Jefferson has still been good in averaging 6.7 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback) with just 1 interception on 93 pass plays. LSU’s offense was 0.9 yards per play better than average for the season but I rate the Tigers at 1.3 yppl better than average offensively heading into this game. LSU did play relatively worse against very good defensive teams this season, as the Tigers averaged only 4.4 yppl against Oregon, 4.1 yppl against Alabama and 5.1 yppl in the SEC Championship game against Georgia.

Alabama’s defense is the best unit in the nation, as the Tide allowed just 3.2 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Bama didn’t allow more than 4.6 yppl and 14 points to any Division 1A team all season but they did give up 21 points and 7.4 yppl to Division 1AA Georgia Southern and their triple option attack. A lot has been made of that game and the fact that LSU is equipped to run some option offense in this game, but the option that Georgia Southern runs is much different from the simple option that LSU will run and Alabama held LSU to 3.8 yard per rushing play and 4.1 yppl with Jordan Jefferson running some option in the first game. I do expect the option to help LSU run for a better average than they ran for the first time these teams played, but they’re unlikely to have great success with it, especially given the extra time that Alabama has had to prepare for it (they didn’t have much time to prepare for Georgia Southern and probably didn’t put much effort into that game, which was right in the middle of the SEC schedule). Alabama played two games against elite offensive teams and they allowed just 3.8 yppl to Arkansas and only 4.1 yppl to LSU while actually rating better in those two games (relative to how good those offenses are) than they did overall. My math projects 247 yards at 4.5 yppl for LSU in this game, which is better than the 4.1 yppl that they averaged in the first game.

Alabama out-gained LSU 295 yards at 4.9 yppl to 239 yards at 4.1 yppl in the first meeting but missed 4 field goals (although the misses were all from 44 yards or longer) and lost in overtime. Special teams could play a role in this game too, as LSU is among the best teams in my overall special teams ratings while Alabama is better than average but not great in special teams. My math model liked Alabama the first time these teams played and the Crimson Tide out-played LSU in that game. However, the math favors LSU this time around because of the Tigers’ offensive improvement since that first game. In fact, the math favors LSU by 2 points in this game despite the 312 yards to 247 yards projection in favor of Alabama (special teams and turnovers make up for the yardage deficiency). However, LSU applies to a negative 30-75 ATS bowl situation and that angle is 0-2 ATS for teams in the BCS Championship game. In this case I’ll side with the strong situation and I’ll lean slightly with Alabama at -2 ½ points or less. I will also lean under 40 points or higher.

Marc Lawrence

West Virginia at Connecticut
Prediction: Connecticut

Neither the 23-win 2008 Mountaineers, nor the 21-win 2010 edition, could post wins in Gambel Pavilion so there?s really no reason to believe that this season?s unranked Mounties can get the job done. In fact, WVU is 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in eight career trips to Storrs. And while Bob Huggins? crew appears to be down a notch from past years, the defending national champion Huskies ? despite the loss at Seton Hall on Tuesday ? are off to a solid 12-2 start and Top Ten ranking. They travel to Rutgers on Saturday before playing host to the Hillbillies on Big Monday and this is where the schedule maker certainly didn?t do the Morgantown men any favors. Connecticut is a relaxed 8-1 SU and ATS after scrimmaging the Scarlet (have beaten them 10 straight and 16 of 17) and 16-8 ATS at home with conference revenge after beating the Knights ? which history suggests will happen again. Tonight?s line may reach 10 points but that won?t scare us off as the Huskies have covered three of the last four in this series as double-digit chalk. It?s a lay. We recommend a 1-unit play on Connecticut.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Minnesota Timberwolves at Toronto Raptors
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves

With the exception of a 98-87 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, the T'wolves have played very well this season & thus remain undervalued. They drubbed the lowly Wizards Sunday afternoon, 93-72 as a 2.5-point road favorite. They opened the year a perfect 5-0 ATS and have only one loss by greater than four points thus far. They are also a perfect 5-0 ATS as a dog this season and are 2-0 ATS when playing on back to back days. Toronto put forth a dismal showing last time out, scoring only 62 points in a loss to the Sixers. That's been par for the course offensively as they're averaging just 87.5 PPG.

DAVID MALINSKY

Detroit @ Chicago
Pick: Detroit +14

We are going to get ahead of the market curve here and call for the Bulls to be “grinders” in this role this season. The eye is clearly on the post-season prize, and in this sprint of a schedule, Tom Thibodeau knows where his focus has to be – just win and move on. Of course without Richard Hamilton some scoring punch is lacking to get easy wins anyway, and that makes this extreme setting one that we can take advantage of.

The Bulls are just coming off of a stretch of four games in five nights, all with court changes, and are now embarking on a “3-in-3”, heading back on the road tomorrow. And after getting Thursday off, go back-to-back again. It is going to be nine games in 12 days, one of the more grueling stretches any team will have to go through all season. So the focus will be on nothing more than grinding away the W’s, with little concern over the margin, and having dispatched of the Pistons easily in Detroit last week, this opponent creates no spark at all for them.

Yet for our purposes the Pistons work just fine – they are the ideal kind of bad team to use in this setting because the markets are fully pricing their ineptitude. But instead of a bunch of veteran players going through the motions, there are young pieces to build around in Greg Monroe and Brandon Knight, and Laurence Frank will keep them in structure as he rebuilds piece-by-piece. Monroe in particular creates a starting point, having averaged 18.7 points and 8.3 rebounds over the past three games, and having had Sunday off to practice, the focus will be good enough to hang within an extremely generous price point.

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW JERSEY +5½/+201 over Atlanta

Three of Atlanta's last four games have come against the Heat twice and the Bulls once, arguably the East's top two teams. The Hawks are off to a good 6-3 start with two of those wins coming against these same Nets, the first one by an eye-opening 36 points. Now they'll play the Nets for a third time following those three intense matchups and two straight wins. This becomes a vulnerable spot for the Hawks. New Jersey's 2-7 record is better than it looks. They've already played the Heat, Magic, Pacers and Celtics. They've looked much sharper in its last two games, one in Toronto (a 12-point win) and as hosts to Miami. Anthony Morrow is getting plenty of minutes and when he’s on his game, he can knock down shot after shot. The Nets have two star players in Deron Williams and Kris Humphries. You can be darn sure they're going to take this game very seriously after losing twice to this guest already. Atlanta has Indiana on deck and even more than they did last season, we can expect the Hawks to take nights like this ‘off’ in the year of the compressed schedule Play: New Jersey +5½ (Risking 1.02 units to win 1). Play: New Jersey +201 (Risking 1 unit).

CHICAGO -13½ over Detroit

This has been the year of the blowout so far. We see 20-point wins every night. We see teams down by 10-12 in the fourth end up losing by 25. We see teams mailing it in once they get down by a lot because tomorrow is another day and clubs can't afford to waste energy when they have five games in a week. The Pistons are a team with no hope and that gets blown out regularly. They're coming off back-to-back 23 point-losses to the Knicks and Sixers, not to mention a 16-point loss to these same Bulls at The Palace. The best news is that the Bulls are coming off an embarassing 15-point loss to Atlanta. Chicago has played just two games at home and one of those was a 40-point win over Memphis. This is a true mismatch and on their best day, the Pistons don't have the horses to compete with the juggernaut Bulls, especially in the Windy City. Play: Chicago -13½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

WUNDERDOG

New Orleans at Denver
Pick: New Orleans +13

The Nuggets acquired a good young infusion of talent when they dealt Melo to the Knicks. As a result, they come into this one at 6-3 on the season and a perfect 4-0 at home. While they have been the Nuggets of old scoring 110+ on four occasions, they show their youth scoring in the 90s in four others. The New Orleans Hornets will again be without their best player Eric Gordon who will miss a few more weeks to get his knee right. This team has some good depth and likes to slow the pace down, which makes a huge pointspread a target for the dog here. They have allowed just one team 100 points this season and that was 101, so there is a strong likelihood that they can hang inside an inflated number here. The Hornets' track record indicates as such as they are 10-3 ATS playing in the role of a road dog of 11 or more points. Play on New Orleans in this one.

Bryan Power

Indiana @ Philadelphia
PICK: Indiana +6

I used the Sixers in their last game, a huge 97-62 win over Toronto on Saturday. It was Philly's fourth consecutive win and cover, the last two coming here at home after opening the season by playing their first five games on the road. However, for tonight, I feel the value lies in going against Philly as they host a similarly underrated Indiana team. The Pacers also come in off BTB SU/ATS wins. They went to Boston & upset the Celtics 87-74 as six-point underdogs on Friday. They followed that with a dominant 22-point victory over Charlotte at home. This could be a pretty low scoring game considering Indiana has held its last two opponents under 80 points as has Philly. The 32% shooting Indiana held Charlotte to was the best defensive performance by the Pacers in the last two years. This is a deep Pacers team with seven players averaging double figures in scoring. That makes taking the points the way to go. The Sixers are just 4-12 ATS off a division win, including 1-6 ATS if that win came at home.

Teddy Covers

Indiana @ Philadelphia
PICK: Under 185

Both the 76ers and the Pacers have been real moneymakers for their supporters through the first two weeks of the season, combining for an 11-4 mark both SU and ATS. The key to the success for both squads? Stellar defense on nearly every possession.

Doug Collins Sixers lead the league into two key defensive statistical categories, holding foes to 39.5% shooting and under 86 points per game. Forward Elton Brand: ‘It’s all about playing defense. We know we can score. It’s all about how we react and how we respond on defense.” Coming off their best defensive showing in the 15 year history of the Wells Fargo Center – holding Toronto to 62 points in a blowout win on Saturday – look for continued defensive intensity tonight.

Meanwhile, Indiana could be without their two leading scorers tonight. Center Roy Hibbert (ankle) and forward Danny Granger (illness) are both listed as questionable for this ballgame. The Pacers, too, rank among the league’s elite defensive squads, holding foes to 89 points per game; #3 in the NBA in both points allowed and shooting percentage allowed. Granger, after holding Charlotte to 72 points on 32.6% shooting on Saturday: “We grinded them out, we put our defense out there and played to the best of our ability.” Don’t expect many easy buckets in this matchup! Take the Under.