Jack Jones
Oklahoma State -2½
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are showing solid value as just a 2.5-point home favorite over the Oklahoma Sooners Monday. While this is an in-state rivalry, home-court advantage is still huge. Plus, the Cowboys have been pretty unstoppable at home all season.
Oklahoma State is off to a 6-1 start at home this year. Not only are they beating their opponents, they are absolutely embarrassing them. The Cowboys are scoring 71.6 points/game while giving up 58.6 points/game at home for an average victory of 13.0 points/game.
Three of Oklahoma's four losses this year have come on the road. The Sooners are getting outscored by an average of 4.5 points/game away from home this season. The home team has won five straight in this series between the Sooners and Cowboys, with the home squad going 4-1 ATS in the process.
Oklahoma is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after 1 or more consecutive losses, and 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games after 2 or more consecutive defeats. The Cowboys are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 home games. The Sooners are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a S.U. loss. Oky State is 22-11 ATS in their last 33 games as a favorite. Bet the Cowboys Monday.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Detroit Pistons +14
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and further motivated by a 12-game losing streak to the Bulls, expect the Pistons to play inspired basketball evening. Chicago has had the upper hand in this series of late but is being overvalued by odds makers because of it. It has only won by an average of 10.1 points during its 12-game run in the series. It is also worth noting that the Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 11.0 points or more. In addition, plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a bad team (winning 25% to 40% of its games) playing a team with a winning record, are 138-86 (61.6%) ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 12.3 points on average but have only lost by an average of 10.6. We'll take the points.
Steve Janus
Charlotte Bobcats +11
The Bobcats are just 2-6 on the season, but one of their two wins was a 118-110 win at New York last Wednesday. Charlotte got roughed up by the Pacers 99-77 on Saturday, which I believe has only added value to the Bobcats +11. The Pacers have been playing some stingy defense to start the season, which is a big reason why that game got out of hand. The Knicks come into tonight's game allowing 104.0 ppg at home this season, which is why I think Charlotte will have no trouble cashing in on this inflated line.
The Bobcats are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games, which really forced the oddsmakers to set the line a lot higher than what it should be. This has been a pretty profitable spot to back the Bobcats. Charlotte is 15-5 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.
The Knicks have been a great team to fade at home. They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Dave Price
1 Unit San Francisco +16.5
Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) checking in off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a conference rival and matched up against an opponent that won its last game straight up but didn't cover are 102-59 ATS since 1997. The teams fitting these parameters have only lost by an average of 10.6 points. The value clearly lies with San Francisco here. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Pacers/76ers UNDER 185
Recent events have set up a quality unders opportunity on tonight's Pacers/76ers showdown. Consider that plays under on any team (INDIANA) following a win by 10 points or more if that teams opponent checks in off 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more are 43-18 (70.5%) the last 5 seasons. Both of these teams have been playing exceptional defense. The 76ers rank No. 1 in the league in scoring defense with 85.6 points allowed per game, and the Pacers rank 3rd with 89.2 points allowed per game. We'll bet the Under.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
PHILADELPHIA -5 over Indiana: The Sixers are rolling right now as they are 5-2 on the year and have won 4 in row. The have outscored their opponents by 23.5 over that stretch and they have won both home games by at least 23 points. The Sixers have done it at both ends of the floor this year as they come in ranked 3rd in offensive scoring (100.9 ppg) and 4th in offensive FG% (47.2%), while on defense the are ranked 1st in both categories as they have allowed just 85.6 ppg on 39.5% shooting. The Pacers are just about equal to the Sixers at the defensive end as they have allowed just 89.2 ppg (3rd) on 41% shooting (3rd), but on offense they are not close to the Sixers as they have averaged just 93 ppg (19th) on 41.5% shooting (26th). The one thing this Pacers offense does do well is shoot the three as they are 3rd from long range (41.2%), but the Sixers are 2nd in the league defending the three (26.3%). The defenses are about even, but the Sixers have a big edge on offense, they are playing at home and they are just crushing teams right now. This is a big test for the Sixers, but I Indiana just doesn't have enough offense to keep this one close. KEY TRENDS--- PHILADELPHIA is 30-14 ATS after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons, while INDIANA is 4-13 ATS in road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Toronto/ Minnesota Under 187: Last year the T-Wolves had a lot of problems on defense, but this year they have done much better as they have allowed just 92.9 ppg (10th) on 42.6% shooting (8th). Tonight they take on a 26th ranked scoring Raptors team that has averaged just 87.5 ppg and they are off a game in which they scored just 62 points vs Philly, which is another good defensive team. Toronto may not be able to score, but they have done very well at the defensive end this year as they have allowed just 92.9 ppg (11th) and they are 2nd in the league in defensive FG% (40.2%). Minnesota is middle of the pack in offense as they have averaged 95.2 ppg overall, but in their last 3 games they have struggled some, putting up just 88.7 ppg. Both teams have played really good defense this year and with a couple of struggling offenses on the court as well, we can expect a low scoring affair tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points if they are a slow-down team averaging 76 or less shots/game on the season against opponent that has allowed a shooting pct. of 42% or less in at least 5 straight games. This play is 44-18 Since 1996.
2 UNIT PLAY
Denver/ New Orleans Under 192.5: NEW ORLEANS is 22-7 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons, while DENVER is 22-11 UNDER after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
New York/ Charlotte Over 202.5: Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW YORK) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average offensive teams (92-98 PPG). This play is 25-4 the last 5 seasons.
TOP SYSTEMS OF THE DAY (7-4 ON THE YEAR)
I did this over the baseball season and tried for the most part during the early NFL and CFB seasons, but it turned, but just didn't keep up with it as tracking down these systems or looking through my own was a bit more work than expected. Well I have organized things a bit more and have found an easier less time consuming way to do this. Now as i stated these are system plays yes, but they have had some thought go into them for me to post. In other words I have to think that the sysytem play has a good shot at covering or i won't post. I could have a 30-1 system that looks good, but if I don't think it favors the right side then I will not post it. I will keep all the record for these plays right here.
Play Over - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average offensive teams (92-98 PPG). This play is 25-3 the last 5 seasons. Play New York/ Charlotte Over 202.5
Play Against road underdogs of 10 or more points after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread against a hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread. Play on Denver -12.5 over Charlotte
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Florida Atlantic/ Arkansas State Under 119: FAU has really played some low scoring games once Sun Belt play has started as their 3 conference games have averaged just 96 ppg. The owls have really had problems scoring of late as they have put up just 52.4 ppg in their last 5 games and they have scored just 56.7 ppg on the road this year. That's actually quite amazing, considering that they are 44th in the nation in shots per game (59.1). Probably the reason hat they are 274th in shooting (40.8%). Arkansas State does not like the uptempo game as they are 317th in shots per game (50), while theyu come in averaging just 63.5 ppg (269th). FAU has allowed 66.7 ppg on the year overall, but they have really clamped it down of late, allowing just 53.4 ppg in their last 5 games. The Red Wolves are pretty average on defense, but shouldn't have problems keeping this pathetic FAU offense down tonight. Both defenses should have a solid showing, vs a couple of teams tat just don't score well. Like the Wyoming play I look for a round 110 in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma/ Oklahoma State Over 131: Gonna go with a higher scoring game than one would expect here. The last 4 between these teams played here have averaged 161.8 ppg, with each game hitting at least 148 points. The Sooners have had some offensive problems the last 2 games, but in their previous 7 games they had averaged 74.7 ppg. Overall they are averaging 73.9 ppg on 44.3% shooting. tonight they will face a team that plays tough defense, but I really look for the Sooners to speed the game up even more than normal as they don't want OSU to get settled in their half court defense. The OSU offense has been stuck in the mud for part of the year, but they have averaged 70.2 ppg at home this year, while the Sooners have allowed 71.5 ppg on the road. Oklahoma will look to have this game at their pace. The Need chaos and that will allow both teams to score. I expect 135+ points with ease here. KEY TREND--- OKLAHOMA is 24-9 OVER after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games since 1997.
Wyoming/ Idaho State Under 118.5: Not exactly sure how Idaho State will score in this one. The Bengals come in averaging just 58 ppg in their last 5 overall and 58.6 ppg on the road, while the Cowboys play some of the best team defense this year as they have allowed just 53.2 ppg on 37.6 % shooting overall and a mere 50.2 ppg on 37.3 % shooting at home. Idaho State does allow 71.9 pg overall and 71.1 ppg on the road, But the Cowboys are not a strong offensive team as they have averaged just 66.3 ppg on the year. The Bengals are 281st in the nation in shots per game (52.1), while the Cowboys are 337th (48), so neither team pushes the ball and that will really keep the scoring chances down here as well. I expect this game to finish around 110. KEY TREND--- WYOMING is 10-2 UNDER versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
2 UNIT PLAY
GEORGETOWN -6.5 over Cincinnati: CINCINNATI is 3-13 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 3 seasons and 12-25 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
1 UNIT PLAY
San Francisco +16.5 over ST MARY'S: SAN FRANCISCO is 16-3 ATS after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons, while ST MARYS-CA is 3-15 ATS in home games off a road win against a conference rival since 1997.
TOP SYSTEMS OF THE DAY (5-4 ON THE YEAR)
I did this over the baseball season and tried for the most part during the early NFL and CFB seasons, but it turned, but just didn't keep up with it as tracking down these systems or looking through my own was a bit more work than expected. Well I have organized things a bit more and have found an easier less time consuming way to do this. Now as i stated these are system plays yes, but they have had some thought go into them for me to post. In other words I have to think that the system play has a good shot at covering or i won't post. I could have a 30-1 system that looks good, but if I don't think it favors the right side then I will not post it. I will keep all the record for these plays right here.
Play Under - All teams where the total is 129.5 or less (ARKANSAS ST) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games and a close win by 3 points or less This play is 60-25 sibce 1997. Play FAU/ Arkansas State UNDER 119.
Play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games if they are a terrible team (<=20%) and are playing a team with a winning record. This play is 37-13 the last 5 seasons. Play on Idaho State +16 over Wyoming.
Black Widow
1* on Detroit Pistons +14
There's no denying that the Detroit Pistons are a team in rebuilding mode this season, and that has shown with their 2-6 start. However, I'm willing to pull the trigger on the Pistons tonight given this ridiculous line. The clear value in this game is with the road underdog. The Chicago Bulls just beat Detroit 99-83 on 1/4 just less than a week ago, so they will be disinterested with the Pistons coming to town tonight. Meanwhile, Detroit will be highly motivated for revenge, and to put an end to a 3-game losing streak. Plays on road teams (DETROIT) - pathetic team - shooting =46% on the season against opponent after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1996. Chicago has only beaten Detroit by more than 13 points once in their last six meetings. Take the Pistons and the points.
Chuck O'Brien
The Hoyas are in after a loss to West Virginia - their first in 12 games - but I'm still confident the 11th-ranked team in the nation has enough to rebound and step up after Saturday's dismal shooting performance. Georgetown made only 2 of 14 attempts from beyond the arc in a 12-point loss.
I think at some point coach John Thompson III will have his team convinced it doesn't need to live by the 3, and should stick to its traditional physical style of play. This would be the right game to adhere to those ways, as Cincinnati ranks second in the Big East with its three-point defense, stifling opponents to 29.2 percent shooting from long-range.
Instead, look for the Hoyas to play their own suffocating brand of defense, as they rank second in the Big East and 14th nationally in allowing a mere 59.1 points per game. And when the defense is working, their transition game sparks a solid 73.4 points a game. Georgetown ranks 31st among all major college basketball programs while shooting 47.5 percent from the field.
By using that stingy D, and taking high-percentage shots, the Hoyas will get the win tonight.
3♦ GEORGETOWN
Matt Rivers
Monday's free play selection comes in the NBA, as I back the Philadelphia 76ers as the home favorite against the Indiana Pacers.
Both teams are off to solid starts, as Indiana comes into this meeting with a 6-2 straight up mark, while host Philly stands at 5-2 straight up.
The difference tonight is the fact Indiana is now playing for the fifth time in their last six games away from home, and both of the losses on their schedule thus far have come away from home.
As for the 76ers, they have won and covered both home games this season, winning by 23 and 35-points!
Philadelphia has won two of the last three series meetings versus Indiana dating back to last season, and I like them as the small home favorite tonight to stretch those winning numbers to three of the last four both straight up and against the spread.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s look at Georgetown to cover against Cincinnati.
Cincinnati just had a seven-game winning streak snapped by St. Johns’s . The problem with the Bearcats is their field goal shooting. The team shoots 42.9 percent, which ranks 200th in the nation. That’s going to be a problem when facing a team like Georgetown.
Georgetown had its own winning streak snapped, 11 in row, when it lost at West Virginia.
Returning home, expect the Georgetown defense to step it up here and limit the Cincinnati offense. Cincinnati went to a four-guard offense, and Georgetown should dominate the boards. At home, Georgetown averages 74.3 points a game, while giving up 52.2 points. It also limits its opponents to shooting 34.7 percent.
Rebounding and shooting edge goes to Georgetown.
Take the Hoyas.
3♦ GEORGETOWN
Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play, I'm building off yesterday's FREE winner on Detroit easily over Butler. This time around I'm siding with a motivated Connecticut team hosting a suddenly surging West Virginia squad.
Problem I have with this game is the perception. WVU comes in red-hot off wins at Rutgers (who just beat UCONN) and against Georgetown. Huskies meanwhile have lost two straight and appear to be playing somewhat subpar basketball. So if that's the case, and WVU is playing SO much better than UCONN, then why in the hell are the Huskies favored by 5' here? Did the guys in Vegas make a mistake? Not unlikely. They are clearly signaling a bounce back (and revenge-seeking) effort here from UCONN, as they return home off back-to-back road losses.
This match up just works better for the Huskies, who have been playing some real sloppy basketball of late. They should shore things up coming off that ugly loss to Rutgers, but more importantly, they'll be facing a team that's wants to match up man-to-man. Rutgers had the UCONN offense flustered with its use of the 2-3 zone, and we all saw how much Jeremy Lamb struggled. Huggins loves his man-to-man defense, so we can expect the Huskies to bounce back in a big way against a more favorable match up. Granted, I'm not saying its going to be easy, because the Mountaineers can D up with the best of them, but it is a better match up strategically.
The key to stopping the Mountaineers is stopping Kevin Jones, who leads the Big East in scoring and rebounding. Big bodies are plentiful on this Huskies roster, led by their 6'10 270 lbs C Andre Drummond. Jones will have his work cut out for him, and past him there isn't much bulk in the WVU frontline - a big problem if you ask me. Moreover, looking into the backcourt, don't be fooled by Truck Bryant's recent offensive surge, he can be incredibly inconsistent and it wouldn't surprise me to see a major drop-off tonight.
Bottom line, don't let the line trick you into making a play on WVU. UCONN is highly motivated coming off back-to-back losses, and don't forget they're in revenge-mode following last season's 65-56 loss to the Mountaineers in Morgantown. Long story short, fade the public and lay it with Connecticut over West Virginia Monday.
4♦ CONNECTICUT
Scott Delaney
My free winner today will be in the NBA with a very low-key game, as I take a look at the Minnesota Timberwolves over the Toronto Raptors. Though the Wolves haven't won a game north of the border in nearly eight years, I think this surprising and rejuvenated squad could win outright.
While everyone continues to be fascinated by the relationships of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin or LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, my interest is peaking up in Minnesota with this dynamic duo of Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love. And with these two coming into the Air Canada Centre after yesterday's 21-point blowout of the Wizards, I think they're going to have plenty of confidence against a team that just doesn't have the pizazz it once did.
Andrea Bargnani and Amir Johnson? Eh. Big deal.
Add in Derrick Williams, the No. 2 overall pick in last year's draft, and the eventual return of Michael Beasley, and the Timberwolves have a foursome to be reckoned with. For now, the trio of Rubio, Love and Williams will do just fine against the sluggish and disappointing Raptors.
Look for the 11th-best offense in the NBA to light up the scoreboard and aim for the outright win against the fifth-worst offense in the league. Take the points.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the West Virginia Mountainers as the road dog in Big East play at Connecticut.
UConn has followed up a seven-game winning streak with conference road losses in their last pair of games, and neither has really been that close. The Huskies lost by twelve-points at Seton Hall on the 3rd of this month, and by seven-points their last time out at Rutgers.
The scuffling Huskies will have their hands full with a West Virginia team that did recently win by 21-points at Rutgers, and also beat-back a challenge for a tough Georgetown team their last time on court.
The Mountaineers have definitely held their own versus the Huskies in recent meetings, as the teams have split the last six series showdowns.
I expect this one to be tightly-contested from start to finish, so take the points as West Virginia hangs inside of the number.
2♦ WEST VIRGINIA
Chris Jordan
On the heels of Sunday's comp winner on the Los Angeles Lakers, I'm staying in the NBA and will lay the points with the Philadelphia 76ers against visiting Indiana, as the Pacers have their two-game win streak snapped by a team looking to win for the fifth straight time on the floor.
What in the name of Julius Erving is going on, by the way, in Philly? You look at the Eastern Conference's Atlantic Division standings and sitting in first place, a game in front of the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics, is Philadelphia, at 5-2 just two weeks into a season that began with them on a five-game road trip.
It's not hard to see why, either, as the Sixers are currently sporting the No. 1 defense in the league, limiting foes to a mere 85.57 points per game, three points better than Chicago. Granted, in third place are the Pacers, who are allowing 89.25 points per game, but then I defer to the offensive games of these two teams.
Philadelphia is not only getting it done on the defensive end of the court, it's ranked third in the league with 100.86 points per game using a two-deep platoon that coach Doug Collins employs extensively. The Pacers, meanwhile, are a mediocre 19th in the NBA with 93 points per contest.
Fact is, behind exuberant youth and stellar depth, the Sixers are blatantly running circles around their opponents, and talk about a boatload of confidence, they have to be hyped up knowing they'll play 16 of their next 20 games at home, where they're already 2-0 following weekend victories against Detroit and Toronto.
For the Pacers, this is their fifth game in 2012, and will mark their sixth in 10 days overall. They played four straight on the road - at Detroit, New Jersey, Miami and Boston - before returning home to host Charlotte on Saturday and are now back on the highway once more. That's a lot of traveling and I'm guessing a lot of wear and tear. I can't rightfully trust a team that has jettisoned across the Eastern Conference the past 10 days and now must play the No. 1 NBA defense.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA 76ERS