Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday November, 12

David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver vs. Phoenix
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nuggets are 4-3, most recently coming off a 107-101 double OT win at Golden State on Saturday.
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Danilo Gallinari scored five points in the final 36 seconds to clinch it, and would finish with 21 overall.
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After starting the year 0-3, the Nuggets have now won four straight.
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Kenneth Faried had 18 points and 17 boards. Andre Iguodala chipped in 19 points.
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Andre Miller added 15 points and dished out eight assists.
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It's interesting to note that Denver has seen the total go "over" the posted number in 35 of its last 63 vs. teams with losing records.
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The Suns are 3-4 and are coming off a 94-81 loss at Utah on Saturday.
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Luis Scola had 21 points; Jared Dudley added 16; Goran Dragic chipped in 13.
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Having already seen the total go "over" the number in both games that they've played against vs. teams with winning records this year, the Suns have seen it fly above the number in 42 of their last 82 in the same position over the last two seasons.
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This is a "situational" play.
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The Nuggets looked lost for about three quarters in their last game, but finally found their offensive groove, and I look for them to carry that momentum over here.
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Phoenix is definitely looking to atone for its lacklustre effort last time out.
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Expect these two Western Conference opponents to push the pace of this contest, and because of that, you may want to consider a second look at the "over" in this one!

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Hawks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Atlanta Hawks
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Portland has failed to cover 12 straight times as a favorite with rest if they are off as loss and allowed 55% or higher shooting from the field in their last game. They are in off a tough loss to the Spurs in a game where they led most of the way by double digits. Atlanta has covered 6 of the last 7 in the series and has covered all 3 times here since 1995 when they have no rest.For our system we want to plays on road dogs of 4 or less with no rest that shot 455 or less in their last game, vs an opponent that scored 90 or more as a home dog. These un rested road dogs have covered 10 of the last 12. Look for the Hawks to get the cash tonight.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trailblazers
Pick: Atlanta Hawks
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The Hawks basically beat themselves on Sunday. They could have had a nice lead against the Clippers but for a ridiculously awful showing at the foul line, and then they fell apart. Look for a bounceback here and expect the Hawks to top Portland.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
Pick: Denver Nuggets
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The Denver Nuggets (4-3 S/U, 5-2 ATS) had a rocky start to the season, starting 0-2 with losses at Philly and Orlando. But they have gotten their act together since, going 4-0 both S/U and ATS including their last time out, an OT win at Golden State, 107-101. Early in this season the Nuggets are leading the NBA in rebounds per game (52.1) and 8th in the league in scoring (99.0 ppg). Andre Iguodala leads the club in scoring this season with a 15.1 ppg average. The Phoenix Suns (3-4 S/U, 1-6 ATS) look to rebound from their loss at Utah last time out, 94-81. The Suns will have to shore up a defense that is ranked 28th in the league (103.4 ppg allowed). Goran Dragic leads the Suns in scoring with a 16.0 ppg average. The Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS the last six meetings with the Suns and the favorite has covered six of the last nine meetings (one push). The Nuggets are rolling now and will have little trouble scoring against this bad Suns defense. Take the Nuggets.

Ross KingFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Milwaukee Bucks
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Milwaukee 25-11 versus Atlantic Division opponents the last 3 seasons.As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points Philadelphia is 6-16 the last 3 seasons and 67-103 since 1996.Take Milwaukee as your freeplay winner.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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West Virginia vs. Gonzaga
Pick: Gonzaga
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West Virginia ended last season with a 22-point loss against Gonzaga in the first round of the NCAA Tournament and it begins this season by facing the Bulldogs once again. Even though last season's result was a rout, the task at hand here is even more daunting. The Mountaineers lost two big names to graduation, Kevin Jones and Darryl Bryant who averaged a combined 36.8 ppg and 14.0 rpg so replacing that tandem is going to be a challenge right out of the gate.
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Gonzaga is stacked once again as it comes in as a preseason top 25 team and is again picked to compete to win the WCC along with St. Mary's. The Bulldogs were not able to carry than West Virginia win into their next game in the NCAA Tournament as they lost to Ohio St. in the next round. They have four starters back from their 26-win team of a year ago and they should be even more dangerous this season. Gonzaga is 104-7 at the McCarthey Athletic Center since its opening in 2004.
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The one area of concern for the Bulldogs coming into the season was depth but we were able to see how deep this team actually is. The four starters returning for Gonzaga are Gary Bell Jr., Elias Harris, Mike Hart and Kevin Pangos and in its season opening win over Southern Utah they combined to score just 30 of its 103 total points showing how many weapons there are. Granted, Southern Utah is not very good as it is picked to come in ninth in the Big Sky but it was a perfect opening test to see what the Bulldogs have.
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For West Virginia, nine of 13 players on the roster are either freshmen or sophomores making the Mountaineers one of the youngest teams in the Big XII. Going to a place like Gonzaga to open the season isn't ideal as not only is it a tough environment but the time change playing in a late game out west is a challenge. Going back to last season, the Bulldogs have covered six straight games at home while West Virginia went 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

Dave EsslerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Troy +16FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I gotta do it. We faded the Aggies the other night and lost a tough one, and here again A & M plays a quick team that shoots three's with nothing to lose. Troy has, going into the game, all the confidence they need after winning their season-opener in a new building against Mississippi State. Now, they didn't make their 3's which is obviously critical for them, but they were able to win ugly without two of thei bigger men (fouling out). Bigger is relative because they are tiny by comparison to most teams, so I do expect that the Aggies can score pretty much anytime they want, especially inside. But, they (Texas A & M) play very slow, so even offensive rebounds may well turn into a minute of clock gone by. Troy shoots well enough to keep this game close, or at least sustain the number late.

Jimmy Boyd
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Boston Celtics +2.5
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The Celtics have rebounded from a 0-2 start with wins in three of their last four games, and I expect their winning ways to continue tonight.
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This is a game the Celtics will be jacked up for because they have lost five straight at the United Center. Plus, they have a big advantage in the backcourt tonight.
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The Bulls are already without Derrick Rose, and they are expected to be without Kirk Hinrich (hip injury) this evening. Without Hinrich, who is one of the better defenders in the NBA, to guard Rajon Rondo, I expect Rondo to be breaking down the defense all night long.
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The Bulls are 0-5 ATS at home this season. Bet Boston.

Steve Janus
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Utah Jazz -3
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Utah is a miserable 0-4 on the road this season, which has them showing some pretty good value against a Toronto team that is 1-5 and will be playing without starters Kyle Lowry and Landry Fields. The Jazz have won six straight at Toronto and have not started a season 0-5 on the road in 25 years. The players currently on this Utah team do not want to be associated with that kind of history. Utah will come out with a lot of energy on both sides of the ball and I simply can't see the Raptors matching that intensity for a full four quarters.

Jack Jones
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Denver Nuggets -4.5
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The Denver Nuggets are rolling after their 0-3 start. They opened the season with a brutal schedule and three straight road games, but they are now playing up to their potential. I believe that potential has them competing for a Western Conference title by season's end.
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The Phoenix Suns are in a rebuilding year with the loss of Steve Nash and the season-ending injury to Channing Frye. Their only wins this season have come against the Pistons, Bobcats and Cavaliers by a combined 12 points.
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Denver has won four straight while covering five straight against the spread. It has won all four of those contests by 6 points or more, and you can chalk up win No. 5 in a row by game's end tonight.
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The Nuggets are 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Suns. They have won all six of those contests by 5 points or more, including four by double-digits. They clearly own the Suns in this series.
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The Suns are 3-12 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 41-18 ATS in their last 59 road games. The Suns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Phoenix is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 home games. Bet the Nuggets Monday.

SPORTS WAGERS
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DETROIT +6½ -104 over Oklahoma City
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The Pistons are still winless after seven games but they are far from the worst team in the league. A close look reveals the Pistons have played the toughest schedule in the league with one home game and six away. Among those road contests were games in Houston, Denver, Lakers and Oklahoma City. Detroit has a solid enough line-up that offers nothing but value due to their 0-7 start.
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By contrast, the Thunder have played five at home and just two away, where they are 1-1. This is really an odd, one game trip to the East before they return home to play the Grizzlies on Wednesday. There’s a strong chance that Ok City takes this Pistons team lightly after beating them by 11 just a few days ago. Look for Detroit to bring it here in an effort to get off the schnied and the 6½ points we have to work with is more than enough insurance to get our attention. Upset possibility.
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HOUSTON +5 over Miami
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The Heat are the cream of the crop once again but they’re just 1-2 on the road and remain the most hunted team in the NBA. Miami is still the hottest ticket in the NBA and when they travel, the opposing fans and hosts create an electric atmosphere. As the Heat are finding out, winning on the road against quality clubs is not easy. Miami lost in Memphis last night. They also lost by 20 at the Knicks on opening night. Its only road win came on Friday in Atlanta, in a game that was close throughout. Now the Heat will play their third road game in four nights and tail end of back-to-backs.
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The Rockets are just 3-3 but have won two of three at home and have looked quite good at times. They gave up some choice assets in the James Harden deal and in return they finally have a go-to star on the wings. A backcourt duo of Jeremy Lin and Harden can be as good as any in the business. The Rockets are rested and they’ll be ready to go head-to-head with this acclaimed visitor.
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PHOENIX +162 over Denver
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The Nuggets are coming off an exhausting double OT win in Golden State on Saturday night. They blew a big 1st quarter lead, they were numerous lead changes throughout and they looked all but dead on more than one occasion. Now the Nuggets will play here before hosting the Miami Heat and surely that’s a game they’re thinking about more than this one.
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The Suns have plenty of flaws but they play hard every night and that makes them dangerous in favorable spots like this one. After coming back from a 32-12 deficit on Friday against Cleveland, they went into Utah on Saturday and found themselves down by 22 in the fourth quarter. Give up they did not. They subsequently went on a 19-2 run to cut the lead by five before running out of gas. That’s something they can carry into this game and build upon. The Suns are rebounding and scoring and when you do that well, especially at home, you have a good chance of winning and that's the way we'll play this one. Suns outright.

SPORTS WAGERS
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Kansas City +12½ over PITTSBURGH
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The Kansas City Chiefs bring nothing to this party. The Chiefs have not held a lead for a single second of regulation in any game this season, an accomplishment not seen so late in the season since 1929. Kansas City has not scored more than one touchdown per game for the last month and have been blown out in five of its eight games. However, this is their ”Super Bowl”. It’s the last time they’ll appear on prime time this season and will play for pride and respect here. They’ve been humiliated, embarrassed, and the butt of every joke. It’s time to play some football and leave the field with some dignity.
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This is a classic letdown spot for the Steelers as they just knocked off the Super Bowl champs and they’ll host arch rival Ravens next week. They’ve also won three in a row, capped off by last week’s 4:00 featured game against G-Men and as a result, their stock is higher right now than it’s been all year. Kansas City’s stock is lower than it’s ever been. In what is the most distinctive buy low, sell high opportunity of the season, we’ll gladly take the 12½ points, up from the 11 offered when the number first came out.

DAVID BANKS

Chiefs / Steelers Over 41

The NFL schedule makers must have expected better from the Kansas City Chiefs (1-7, 2-6 ATS) this season, as they make their second straight national TV appearance Monday vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, 4-4 ATS) at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh at 8:35 ET on ESPN. Kansas City has had extra time to prepare for this contest since a 31-13 loss to the San Diego Charger on Thursday Night Football last week, but is that enough to turn around the fortunes of a team that has incredibly yet to play with a lead eight games into the season? The Steelers meantime have now won three straight games after a nice 24-20 road win over the New York Giants last week.

The Steelers winning streak has coincided with them rediscovering their ground game, as after struggling in that area earlier in the year, Pittsburgh is averaging 155.0 rushing yards on an excellent 5.1 yards per carry in the three wins, Furthermore, it has not even mattered who the feature running back has been as the streak started with Jonathan Dwyer rushing for 122 yards and 107 yards respectively in the first two wins and then Isaac Redman rushed for 147 yards last week, all while usual starter Rashard Mendenhall continues to recover from an Achilles injury. Redman will again get the start Monday night vs. a 23rd ranked Kansas City run defense that is allowing 126.0 rushing yards per game on a high 4.6 yards per carry. The success of the running game should allow Ben Roethlisberger to continue his fine season as he ranks 5th in the NFL with a 101.1 QB Rating. Also take note that Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator this year is Todd Haley, who was unceremoniously fired as head coach of the Chiefs last season. Do you think Haley would hesitate to run up the score here?

If you are wondering how the Chiefs have one win despite never playing with a lead this year, it is because their only win came on a field goal in overtime vs. the New Orleans Saints in a game they never led until then. Just about the only thing that the Chiefs do well on either side of the ball is run the football, as they do have one of the best running backs in the NFL in Jamaal Charles, and thus rank third in the NFL in rushing offense at 150.4 yards per game. However, with absolutely no fear of the pass, defenses are simply stacking the box against the Chiefs now, and as a result they are averaging only 98.3 rushing yards and a disgraceful 282.7 total yards over the last three games. Things do not figure to improve vs. a Steelers' team that has now taken over the NFL lead in total defense at just 262.6 yards per game, and they rank seventh in rushing defense at a scant 88.6 yards. It certainly does not help matters that quarterback Matt Cassel has a dismal 31st-ranked QB Rating of 68.9, putting ahead of only Brandon Weeden and John Skelton among NFL starters.

The home teams have gone 4-0 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings, and the Steelers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games.

Wunderdog

Robert Morris at Lehigh
Pick: Lehigh -3

There isn't a team in the country that has a player as important to his team than C.J. McCollum, just ask coach K. He saw this All-American single-handedly beat him in the NCAA Tournament. McCollum does it all, and against a very good Baylor team poured in 36 in the opener. He teams with Mackey McKnight to form a formiddable backcourt. The one thing Lehigh does is execute and get to the line, where they hit nearly 77% a year ago. Robert Morris is a good team and has a lot of parts back from a year ago, but have to be concerned about a 25 point loss to Rider in their opener. When you have teams on a comparable level, as we do here, you have to look at which team has the player that can take the game over. No one has a better one than Lehigh. The Mountain Hawks have been a cover machine at 14-2 ATS in their last 16, including 7-1 ATS outside conference play. Lehigh in this one.