Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, November 1,2010

MTi Sports

Portland at Chicago
Play: Portland

The Bulls are 0-5 ATS (-18.7 ppg) with at least a day of rest after a win at home in which Derrick Rose was the Bulls' high scorer and 0-4 ATS (-16.2 ppg) after a win at home in which Joakim Noah had a double-double. The Blazers are 4-0 ATS (+9.5 ppg) on the road after a win on the road in which Andre Miller took fewer than 10 shots and 4-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) after a win on the road in which Brandon Roy took more than 20 shots.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Having never won in eight tries here in Indianapolis, few believe the Texans can pull off a season sweep over the division rivals. Wrong. Houston is actually 4-1 ATS the previous five meetings with the Colts and in Week 1's dominant 34-24 win, RB Arian Foster ran wild for 231 yards. The Colts are incredibly banged up right now. Houston has won its last four road games. Take the points.

Play on: Houston

Craig Trapp

Texans vs. Colts
Play: Under 50.5

The over has been money in MNF the last two years but this one is listed at 5 too many in my opinion. The Colts are missing a glue guy, Dallas Clark. Not easy to replace this type of guy think the Colts will play well but not near as fast as they do in most weeks. This one is played in low 40's.

JIM FEIST

SPURS / CLIPPERS
PLAY: UNDER

The Clippers were supposed to be better this year with the return of Blake Griffin. So far that hasn't panned out since the Clips are doing what they do best, lose. Not only where the Clippers 1-7 in the preseason, but they have started the regular season 0-2. LA scored 88 points in their opener at home, a 98-88 loss to the Blazers. Then against a soft Golden State defense they managed just 91 points on the road in a 109-91 loss. The Spurs are 1-1 in the young season, winning their home opener over the Pacers, 122-109. However, San Antonio lost their next game at home to the Hornets, 99-90. The Spurs have to figure they have history on their side Monday, having won 16 straight against the Clippers. In face, the Spurs haven't lost to the Slippers since 2006. I'm sticking with the UNDER here on Monday. Historically, the Clippers are a bad shooting team, hitting 37.7 last season and now facing one of the best defensive clubs. Though the Spurs have given up a lot of points thus far, they should have a nice effort here on Monday. The Clippers have shown they still are having scoring issues and that will play right into the Spurs hands. Take the UNDER.

RANDALL THE HANDLE

Texans (4-2) at Colts (4-2)

Asking the Texans to win here en route to a season sweep of adversarial Colts may not be wise but with Indianapolis’ long list of injuries, most notably in the receiving corp., and being given a bunch of points to play with, there are much dumber things you could do on a Monday night. TAKING: HOUSTON +5½

EZWINNERS

Chicago Bulls -1.5

Portland's 3-0 start is their best since the 1999-2000 season when they started 4-0 to open the season, but this has been a very shaky 3-0 start for the Blazers. Portland has been behind entering the fourth quarter in each of their three games, including rallying from six points down to win by 14 against Phoenix on Thursday and erasing a 9 point deficit in the final five minutes of play in a 100-95 win over New York on Saturday. Tonight's opponent for Portland will be their toughest opponent to date and I like Derrick Rose and company to pick up the win. Portland and Chicago split the two meetings in 2009-10, with each winning at home and I expect that to continue in this game. Play on Chicago.

Tom Freese

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio is 8-0 ATS their last 8 games vs. the Clippers. The Spurs are 7-1 ATS their last 8 games with a win percentage of under 40%. San Antonio is 16-7-1 ATS their last 24 Monday games and they are 13-6-1 ATS 20 games overall. The Clippers are 10-22 ATS their last 32 games off a straight up loss and they are 21-53 ATS their last 74 Western Conference games. Los Angeles is 8-20 ATS and they are 7-22-1 ATS their last 30 Monday games. The Clippers are 4-9 ATS their last 13 home games.

LT Profits

Spurs / Clippers Under 192½

Not only are the Los Angeles Clippers off to an 0-3 start both straight up and against the spread this season despite looking to be improved on paper, but they have also gone ‘under’ the total in all three games and we are looking for that streak to continue vs. the San Antonio Spurs Monday.

The sportsbooks have installed a total of 192½ for this contest, with the betting odds set at -110.

It was thought that the Clippers would be improved this season with former overall number one draft pick Blake Griffin, who missed his entire rookie season last year with a fractured kneecap, joining NBA All-Star center Chris Kaman and a solid backcourt of Baron Davis and Eric Gordon to seemingly give the Clips a solid foundation.

Instead, it has looked like the same old Clippers so far, as they always play hard and are usually in the game in the fourth quarter, only to collapse down the stretch. Because of those late disappearing acts, the Clips are averaging only 87.3 points per game while shooting a hideous 37.7 percent from the field.

Amazingly, the “other” Los Angeles team has not reached 100 points in any of their last 18 meetings with the Spurs, and they only exceeded 90 points in two of those 18 games! Given their start this year, NBA odds are that they should be hard-pressed to even reach 90 points tonight.

The Spurs have played two games so far, and in both games, they got caught up in the pace the opponent wants to play. Ironically, the Spurs won the game played at a fast pace this aging club would rather avoid, beating the Indiana Pacers 122-109, but they then lost to New Orleans 99-90 in what was more of a half-court game San Antonio prefers.

Look for a similar pace tonight vs. a team that both plays slow and cannot shoot, and do nit look for this game to get out of the 180s in NBA betting.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Sacramento Kings -4

This is a tough spot for the Raptors playing their first road game clear across the country. In fact, trips to Sacramento have not often gone well for Toronto. The Raptors are just 2-11 SU & 3-10 ATS in their last 13 meetings at Sacramento, where the Kings won the most recent meeting by 23 points.

Taking the home team has definitely been the play in this series. In fact, the home team is on a 13-3 ATS run in the last 16 meetings. In addition, the favorite is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. I'll lay the points with Sacramento as it'll be pumped for its first home game of the year.

Doug Upstone

Devils vs. Canucks
Play: Over 5½

The New Jersey Devils have really struggled coming out of the gate at 3-9 SU and are in the midst of a tough six-game road trip. Tonight in Vancouver will be the Devils fifth game in eight days, a rugged stretch for a team playing well, let alone one that is finding wins hard to come by.

The Canucks on the other hand will take the ice for just second time since Oct.22 and first time since last Tuesday. Vancouver won those two games, beating Minnesota and Colorado and scoring nine goals in the process.

For Monday night, look to Play Over on home teams like Vancouver, when the total is 5.5, a well rested club playing three or less games in 10 days, against opponent playing their 4th game in seven days. Dating back to 2006, this NHL system is 36-14.

Steve Janus

Colts/Texans Over 51

These two teams have a history of putting quite a few points on the board when they face up against each other, and I don't think it will be any different tonight. Don't worry about the Colts missing Dallas Clark and Austin Collie, this offense has plugged numerous wide receivers into the mix since Manning has stepped in and each one seems to do pretty well. The Texans don't offer much of a threat at all on defense, and the Colts are going to go for the kill after losing to Houston to open the season. Defensively the Colts can't stop the ground game this season, and Arian Foster put up 231 yards on the Colts in week 1, and while he likely won't get over 200, I think he still has a big game. The Texans can also throw the football, making them a very difficult matchup for the Colts. The OVER is 7-1 in Texans last 8 games on fieldturf, and is 18-6-2 in Texans last 26 games following a ATS loss. The OVER is 9-4 in Colts last 13 Monday games, and 8-3 in Colts last 11 games following a bye week.

SPORTS WAGERS

Houston +5½ over INDIANAPOLIS

Asking the Texans to win here en route to a season sweep of adversarial Colts may not be wise but with Indianapolis’ long list of injuries, most notably in the receiving corp., and being given a bunch of points to play with, there are much dumber things you could do on a Monday night. Play: Houston +5½ (No bets).

San Francisco +1.59 over TEXAS

Wow, the total for this one is 6, which is incredibly low for a game with AL rules at this ballpark. If you bet this under you would have to hope for five runs or less and that’s almost an impossible wager to make. It’s almost like an NFL game with a total of 21. Anyway, what the total suggests is that the game is going to be a low scoring one and it could very well come down to the late stages and that involves the bullpens and managerial decisions. Ron Washington is a likeable guy and you kinda feel sorry for him watching him chew his sunflower seeds and tongue during the game. However, he’s being badly out-managed to the first degree. He’s not being aggressive, he’s afraid to steal bases because base-runners have been so few and far between and he’s reluctant to bring in anyone from his pen. Speaking of the pen, Rangers reliever Alexi Ogando left Game Four with an apparent oblique injury. If he can't go, the Rangers could bring back Clay Rapada, who didn't make the roster cut. With five innings of two-run baseball last night, the Rangers' bullpen lowered their World Series ERA to 10.03 in 11.2 innings so you can’t really fault Washington for looking like he lost his dog. Giants' closer Brian Wilson now has a 0.84 playoff ERA. As for the starters, well you don’t this analysis to tell you about them. The total hugely suggests that this will be the pitching duel Game One was supposed to be. With that in mind, give us Bruce Bochy over Ron Washington, the Giants pen over the Rangers pen and throw in this huge tag and there’s only one way to go. Yeah, Cliff Lee is great but +1.59 on the club that’s playing 100 times better with Tim Lincecum going is ludicrous. Play: San Francisco +1.59 (Risking 2 units).

ROCKETMAN

Toronto @ Sacramento
Play: Sacramento -4

Toronto comes in with a 1-1 record and Sacramento is now 2-1 overall in the early going of this season. Sacramento is 10-3 ATS last 3 years after 3 or more consecutive overs. Sacramento is scoring 108 points per game overall this year. After 3 straight road games the Kings return home for their home opener. Sacramento is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS since 1996 at home vs Toronto. Raptors are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Raptors are 16-37 ATS in their last 53 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Raptors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Western Conference. Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Favorite is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Raptors are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Sacramento. We'll recommend a small play on Sacramento tonight!

Hollywood Sports

Portland Trail Blazers at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls

Portland (3-0) has raced out to a nice start but this is a tough spot for them having to play their game in a row on the road. They are undermanned in the middle as Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden (what's new?) are out with injuries. Led by Derrick Rose ("He's faaaast"), Chicago (1-1) is a talented young team looking to win their second game in a row at home after their 101-91 win over the Pistons on Saturday. While this club will be even better when Carlos Boozer recovers from his hand injury, they have covered the spread in four straight games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5 points without him. Lay the point(s) with Chicago tonight.